Growth and Welfare Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model with Public Investment

In this paper we analyze growth and welfare effects of fiscal policy in an endogenous growth model along the balanced growth path. As to the model we assume that sustained per capita growth results from public investment. The government uses its tax revenue for investment in public capital, for investment subsidy and for transfer payments. We then analyze how the balanced growth rate reacts to variations in those policy variables. Further, we study welfare effects of varying the fiscal parameters and demonstrate that, in general, maximizing economic growth is not equivalent to maximizing welfare on the balanced growth path.     

A Note on Intertemporal Fiscal Competition and Redistribution

This paper studies fiscal competition among jurisdictions in a dynamic framework, where the degree of mobility of private capital across jurisdictions boundaries is perfect. The optimal tax on mobile capital is a source tax that taxes away factor rents. Further we show that taxation of mobile capital can redistribute income in favor of the immobile factor labor. This is because the factor rents generated by public inputs and appropriated by mobile capital exceed the efficient level of public expenditure for investments. JEL Code: H21, H23, H42, H71     

公共福利支出视角下的农村社会保障体系建设

对于我国现行的农村社会保障体系,本文基于财政福利支出的视角提出了相关问题,主要包括：支出导向单一化、支出监督管理存在多方面的问题。随后,本文介绍了福利支出项目在社会保障体系中的分配功能及其政策效应。最后,根据农村公共福利支出多样化的发展要求,基于提高农民素质、发挥农民劳动力优势的目标,本文提出了完善我国农村社会保障体系的相关政策建议。     

Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the US: An Empirical Assessment*

We analyse the impact of fiscal policy shocks in the euro area as a whole, using a newly‐available quarterly data set of fiscal variables for the period 1981–2007. To allow for comparability with previous results on euro‐area countries and the US, we use a standard structural vector autoregressive (VAR) framework, and study the impact of aggregated and disaggregated government spending and net‐tax shocks. In addition, to frame euro‐area results, we apply the same methodology for the same sample period to US data. We also explore the sensitivity of the results to the inclusion of variables aiming to control for underlying financial and fiscal conditions. The main new findings are that: expansionary fiscal shocks have a short‐term positive impact on GDP and private consumption, with government spending shocks entailing, in general, higher effects on economic activity than (net) tax reductions; output multipliers to government expenditure shocks are of similar size in the euro area and in the US; the persistence of a fiscal spending shock is higher in the US than in the euro area, which appears to be related to military spending in the US; and fiscal multipliers have increased over the recent past in both geographical areas.     

Assessing the Fiscal Costs and Benefits of A8 Migration to the UK*

This paper assesses the fiscal consequences of migration to the UK from the Central and Eastern European countries that joined the European Union in May 2004 (A8 countries). We show that A8 immigrants who arrived after EU enlargement in 2004 and who have at least one year of residence, and are therefore legally eligible to claim benefits, are 59 per cent less likely than natives to receive state benefits or tax credits and 57 per cent less likely to live in social housing. Furthermore, even if A8 immigrants had the same demographic characteristics as natives, they would still be 13 per cent less likely to receive benefits and 29 per cent less likely to live in social housing. We go on to compare the net fiscal contribution of A8 immigrants with that of individuals born in the UK, and find that in each fiscal year since enlargement in 2004, irrespective of the way that the net fiscal contribution is defined, A8 immigrants made a positive contribution to the public finances despite the fact that the UK has been running a budget deficit over the last few years. This is because they have a higher labour force participation rate, pay proportionately more in indirect taxes and make much less use of benefits and public services.     

Efficient Redistribution of Lifetime Income through Welfare Accounts*

Compared with a conventional tax–transfer system, individual welfare accounts can redistribute lifetime incomes at a lower efficiency cost. These welfare accounts employ mandatory contributions rather than taxes to finance social transfers to people of working age. We describe a design for welfare accounts that guarantees a Pareto improvement if behavioural responses to the accounts improve the public budget. We also develop a formula for quantifying the impact of welfare accounts on the government budget and economic efficiency. Applying the formula to Danish data, we find that the proposed welfare accounts would generate a Pareto improvement, thus improving the trade‐off between equity and efficiency. We discuss how the gains from welfare accounts can be distributed in an equitable manner.     

Quantifying the Impact of Immigration on the Spanish Welfare State

The Spanish population will experience significant aging in coming years. This demographic change will impose a heavy burden on the national budget. In particular, expenditure on pensions and health are expected to rise significantly. The inflow of immigrants could help to alleviate the fiscal burden that future generations will have to bear. In this paper we try to quantify the impact of immigration on the Spanish Welfare State, using the methodology of Generational Accounting. Our results suggest that the impact of immigration will be positive and significant.     

Introduction: Fiscal Aspects of Evolving Federations

There has been a resurgence of interest, in many parts of the world, in problems of multilevel government finance. Recent and ongoing political and economic developments raise questions about the role of the nation, subnational governments, and supranational public authorities in the provision and financing of public-sector programs. This paper presents an overview of these developments that may assist in understanding some of the motivation behind the articles presented in this special issue and in appreciating some of their potential applications. The articles are briefly summarized, and some issues that remain on the agenda for future research are identified.     

Redistribution as Social Insurance and Capital Market Integration

In this paper we claim that enhanced economic integration can call for an increase in redistribution among workers. When individuals are risk averse and no human capital insurance is available, the share of workers who choose to invest in specific human capital will be inefficiently low. Redistribution among workers plays the role of the missing insurance market by making the investment in the specific skills more attractive. Capital market integration has two different effects. On the one hand it makes labour income taxation more distortionary, therefore reducing the optimal tax rate on labour. On the other hand, it increases the variance of specific labour wage and widens the scope for risk protection of specific human capital through the redistribution implemented by a labour income tax. We show that the insurance effect of redistribution can be stronger than the distortionary effect, so that the optimal tax rate on labour income can increase when capital markets become more integrated.     

Strengthening Post‐Crisis Fiscal Credibility: Fiscal Councils on the Rise – A New Dataset

Institutions that aim to constrain policy discretion in order to promote sound fiscal policies are once again at the forefront of the policy debate. Interest in fiscal councils – independent watchdogs active in the public debate – has grown rapidly in recent years. In this paper, we present the first cross‐country dataset summarising key characteristics of fiscal councils among International Monetary Fund members. The data document a surge in the number of fiscal councils since the 2008–09 economic and financial crisis, and also illustrate that well‐designed fiscal councils are associated with stronger fiscal performance and better macro‐economic and budgetary forecasts. Key features of effective fiscal councils include operational independence from politics, the provision or public assessment of budgetary forecasts, a strong presence in the public debate and the monitoring of compliance with fiscal policy rules.     

Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers and the Role of Local Autonomy: Evidence from European Regions

Using a panel of 268 European regions during 1990–2014, we document that the degree of local government's autonomy, measured with the “Local Autonomy Index,” has a significant positive effect on the fiscal spending multiplier. The estimated geographic cross-sectional fiscal spending multiplier is on average close to zero in countries with the lowest degree of local autonomy, and around unity in countries with the highest degree of local autonomy. Multipliers are state-dependent: larger when gross domestic product is below trend and when there is slack in the labor market; in those states, local autonomy has a particularly large positive effect on the multiplier. To interpret the empirical findings, we build a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model where both local and central government spending contribute to a public good that enhances private labor productivity. Local governments are more efficient in producing the public good and the multiplier is higher in countries where local government spending has a larger share in the production of the public good.     

Toward A Second-Generation Theory of Fiscal Federalism

Drawing on a wide range of literature and ideas, a new “second-generation theory of fiscal federalism” is emerging that provides new insights into the structure and working of federal systems. After a restatement and review of the first-generation theory, this paper surveys this new body of work and offers some thoughts on the ways in which it is extending our understanding of fiscal federalism and on its implications for the design of fiscal institutions.JEL Code: H77, H11     

Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits

We investigate the impact of fiscal stimuli at different levels of the government debt‐to‐GDP ratio for a sample of 17 European countries from 1970 to 2010. This is implemented in an interacted panel VAR framework in which all coefficient parameters are allowed to change continuously with the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. We find that responses to government spending shocks exhibit strong nonlinear behavior. While the overall cumulative effect of a spending shock on real GDP is positive and significant at moderate debt‐to‐GDP ratios, this effect turns negative as the ratio increases. The total cumulative effect on the trade balance as a share of GDP is negative at first but switches sign at higher levels of debt. Consequently, depending on the degree of public indebtedness, our results accommodate long‐run fiscal multipliers that are greater and smaller than one or even negative as well as twin deficit and twin divergence behavior within one sample and time period. From a policy perspective, these results lend additional support to increased prudence at high public debt ratios because the effectiveness of fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity or resolve external imbalances may not be guaranteed.     

Fiscal Decentralization: A Remedy for Corruption?

This paper examines the effect of fiscal decentralization in a country on the level of corruption. Using a tax competition framework with rent-seeking behavior, it is shown theoretically that fiscal decentralization, modeled as an increase in the number of competing jurisdictions, leads to a lower level of corruption. This result is then tested using a small, cross-country data set. The empirical results are not very strong, but they suggest that the hypothesized relationship between decentralization and corruption may indeed exist.     

斯里兰卡社会福利探析

摘要：尚属发展中国家的斯里兰卡向民众提供了项目丰富的社会福利,降低了民众的生存风险,同时也为经济发展提供了优质的人力资源。普选、福利刚性、宗教和意识形态等都是深刻地影响着斯里兰卡的社会福利。囿于经济发展水平和政府财力,斯里兰卡的社会福利供给方面也存在某些不足。在今后转变经济增长方式的过程中,斯里兰卡应该更加重视社会福利建设,实现社会福利和经济发展的良性互动。     

社会保险基金预算管理中的政府理财责任

编制社会保险基金预算是政府介入社会保险事务,统筹安排社会保险基金供求,规范社会保险基金管理的重要工具。政府理财则是市场经济条件下优化公共财政资源配置,确保达成社会保险基金预算目标的重要路径。社会保险基金支出刚性很强且难以预测,实现基金预算收支平衡、适度结余对政府理财能力与理财水平充满挑战。     

垄断限价、代理商进入与社会福利——兼评中国民航市场价格维持政策

自从中国民航总局于 1999年实施“国内民航机票禁止打折”政策以来 ,不少民航公司仍在暗中通过机票中间代理商低价倾销机票。本文试图从社会福利角度出发 ,分析在卡特尔组织实行垄断定价政策情况下 ,中间代理商的进入对社会福利的影响 ,简要评价了中国民航市场现行价格维持政策的福利效应 ,并提出若干相应建议。     

社会企业的交叉补贴定价及福利效应分析——基于三级价格歧视的视角

社会企业是社会创业的重要载体,是致力于解决社会问题的兼具社会和经济属性的创新组织,在服务于欠缺支付能力的弱势群体方面发挥着重要作用。通过与商业企业的比较,以区别于商业企业定价目标的社会使命收益最大化为出发点,借鉴三级价格歧视理论,研究社会企业的交叉补贴定价策略及福利效应,并以印度 Aravind 眼科医院为例分析,发现社会企业采取的交叉补贴定价是可行的,且在某种程度上实现了帕累托改进。     

政府间财力分配与中国地方财政能力的差异

近些年来,我国地方财政能力的差异呈现不断扩大的趋势。财政分权改革过程中政府间财力分配体制设计的缺陷,是导致我国地方财政能力差异扩大的体制性原因。本文从中国政府间财力分配的两次过程,来分析这一制度对地方财政能力差异的影响,并对如何完善我国政府间财力分配体制、缩小地方财力差异提出对策建议。