Why sustainable transport policies will fail: EU climate policy in the light of transport taboos

There is widespread consensus that current climate policy for passenger transportation is insufficient to achieve significant emission reductions in line with global climate stabilization goals. This article consequently has a starting point in the notion of ‘path dependency’ (Schwanen et al., 2011) and an observed ‘implementation gap’ (Banister and Hickman, 2013), suggesting that significant mitigation policies for transport do not emerge in the European Union because of various interlinked ‘transport taboos’, i.e. barriers to the design, acceptance and implementation of such transport policies that remain unaddressed as they constitute political risk. The paper argues that without addressing transport taboos, such as highly unequal individual contributions to transport volumes and emissions, social inequality of planned market-based measures, the role of lobbyism, and the various social and psychological functions of mobility, it will remain difficult to achieve significant emission reductions in passenger transport. Yet, transport taboos remain largely ignored among EU policy makers because their discussion would violate ‘order’, i.e. harm specific interests within neoliberal governance structures and the societal foundations and structures of transport systems built on these.     

Regional disparity analysis of Chinese freight transport CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2007: Driving forces and policy challenges

Freight transportation and logistics act as the artery of the national economy. With a booming economy, China's freight transport sector has experienced dramatic growth in recent decades and has become a key driving force of China's CO₂ emissions. Therefore, effective and efficient mitigation policies in the freight transport sector are critical for China to promote CO₂ emission mitigation strategies. In contrast to other countries, China's challenge stems not only from technical issues but also from regional socioeconomic disparities, which in turn require the implementation of locally oriented policies. For this reason, an analysis based on regional disparity is of vital importance for future policy making. However, to date, there have been few pertinent studies on the freight transportation sector. To fill this gap, this paper aims to conduct an in-depth comparative study of CO₂ emission characteristics and the driving forces in the freight transport sector in China's three regions (covering 31 provinces) from 1990 to 2007. The log mean Divisia index method (LMDI) is employed to analyse the driving forces, and the Gini coefficient is used to investigate regional inequity. Additionally, regional disparity is explored in-depth based on the analytical results and practical concerns. The results highlight that economic structure is a key driving force for emissions change and reveal significant regional disparity and inequity in freight transport emissions. The results are critical for future policy-making to address regional concerns.     

The governance of transport and climate change

Climate change is one of the key global policy issues of our time. Transport is the sector from which it has been hardest to cut emissions and, to make substantial progress in the future, action will be required at all levels of government from international to local. The governance of transport within this already challenging arena is further complicated by the existence of different structures for the management of transport modes and variations in formal governance structures across countries and regions.This paper examines the prospect for deep cuts in CO₂ emissions from transport through an examination of the key policy levers for change and considering the governance issues that surround them. The focus of the paper is the United Kingdom, and in particular England and Scotland. The UK is the first country to have a legally binding internal obligation to meet carbon dioxide reduction targets and this has prompted significant activity in both governance institutions and delivery. The research uses a multi-level governance framework to understand the policy environment in England and Scotland, capturing both the range of spatial actors and the influence of sectoral actors in what is a complex polity.It is concluded that the policy approach currently appears constrained by a desire to divide accountability by formal institutional structures, thus failing to tackle the dispersed nature of travel and the national and international nature of businesses. There is currently a lack of clarity about the tiering of responsibilities between spatial levels and there is therefore a comparative lack of commitment to the potential for demand management and travel reduction strategies to contribute to carbon reduction. Carbon reduction policies are also influenced by strong industry lobbies whose goals may not be fully aligned with carbon reduction strategies. The profusion of actors engaged in climate change policy seems to dilute rather than promote effective policy making.     

Transport and climate change: a review

Transport accounts for 26% of global CO₂ emissions and is one of the few industrial sectors where emissions are still growing. Car use, road freight and aviation are the principal contributors to greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector and this review focuses on approaches to reduce emissions from these three problem areas. An assessment of new technologies including alternative transport fuels to break the dependence on petroleum is presented, although it appears that technological innovation is unlikely to be the sole answer to the climate change problem. To achieve a stabilisation of greenhouse gas emissions from transport, behavioural change brought about by policy will also be required. Pressure is growing on policy makers to tackle the issue of climate change with a view to providing sustainable transport. Although, there is a tendency to focus on long-term technological solutions, short-term behavioural change is crucial if the benefits of new technology are to be fully realised.     

Interplay between ethanol and electric vehicles as low carbon mobility options for passengers in the municipality of São Paulo

The Brazilian cities as well as many of the large urban centers in the world continue to expand, increasing the demand for mobility and transport, while, at the same time, the same cities are investing in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation to avoid climate change. Brazil's urbanization rate increased from 26% in 1940 to almost 70% in 1980. During this period, the Brazilian population tripled and the urban population multiplied by seven. In 2010, the transport sector in São Paulo accounted for 71% of the total emissions released by the energy sector. Ethanol has been considered a fuel with less greenhouse gas emissions, when compared with fossil fuels. However, ethanol production would have to double to meet the expected demand. Electric vehicles (EVs) market is expanding around the world, and is also an option to reduce the transport emissions, if powered by clean electricity. To assess whether the adoption of EVs might bring more benefits than the current ethanol, we develop prospective scenarios supported by the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) simulation tool, taking a bottom-up tank-to-wheel approach to consider the CO₂ emissions of car in São Paulo. The scenario considering a substitution of 25% of gasoline-powered cars by EV in 2030 showed a reduction in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, around 15% and 26% respectively in that year in comparison with 2015. We discuss the interplay between ethanol and EV, also considering emission coefficients from life cycle analysis conducted in Brazil, and concluded EV will have higher positive impact on climate change mitigation than ethanol.     

Potential performance of urban land use and transport strategies in reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Khon Kaen case study,Thailand

ABSTRACT

Transport activities are a key contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, global warming, and climate change. In Thailand, private cars are the second largest generator (after trucks) of GHG emissions from the transport sector. This article presents an analysis and evaluation of the implementation of land use and transport measures for reducing GHG emissions in the road network of the Khon Kaen University (KKU) area in Khon Kaen, Thailand. This research applied a bottom-up method to estimate the baseline GHG emissions for several scenarios by adopting the Clean Development Mechanism 2 (CDM2) and Pollution Control Department (PCD) methods over a 20-year planning horizon. The cleaner technology strategy clearly showed the greatest performance in reducing the GHG emission, followed by land use planning and restriction of private vehicle usage. The public transit improvement strategy illustrated the least GHG emissions reduction. Integrated scenarios clearly illustrated larger potential benefits, more effective than the individual scenarios. For both individual and integrated scenarios, the potential performances of the GHG emissions reduction estimated by the PCD method were greater than those assessed by the CDM2 method.     

Reducing the ecological footprint of urban cars

This study develops the policy-making capabilities of the Ecological Footprint. The new capabilities we introduce in our Ecological Footprint model allow us to clarify policy options in the face of the increasing management complexity due to a more interconnected and uncertain world. We investigate the effectiveness of three illustrative policy options for reducing the Ecological Footprint of urban car transport: (1) improvements in efficiency/technology, (2) substitution with alternate fuel mixes, and (3) the reduction in demand by altering urban form. We investigate the success of policy options for a subnational case study jurisdiction in Australia, but in the uncertain global context. We use a resilience framework that considers critical social, economic, and environmental variables, multiple scales, and multiple possible futures. We find that delaying policy options to mitigate CO₂ emissions from the transport sector will increase the risks borne by society as a result of future global uncertainty, the uncertain timing of globally coordinated action on climate change and the timing of peak oil. We also find that the success of local policy is affected by the global future which prevails. The use of the Ecological Footprint allows policy to be informed by the consequences of both CO₂ emissions and increasing demand for land. The study provides a decision-making framework that allows local decision makers to make robust policy despite global uncertainty. This framework has wider applicability to other nations and/or subnational jurisdictions worldwide.     

Transport and climate change: Simulating the options for carbon reduction in London

Transport is a major user of carbon-based fuels, and it is increasingly being highlighted as the sector which contributes least to CO₂ emission reduction targets. This paper reports on the findings of the VIBAT London study (www.vibat.org) which considers the role of the transport sector in reducing CO₂ emissions in London.The analysis develops a transport and carbon simulation model (TC-SIM) for London. Within this, users are able to consider the implementation of a series of potential policy packages—low emission vehicles, alternative fuels, pricing regimes, public transport, walking and cycling, strategic and local urban planning, information and communication technologies, smarter choices, ecological driving and slower speeds, long distance travel substitution, freight transport and international air. They can select variable levels of application to help achieve headline CO₂ emission reduction targets. The roles of carbon rationing and oil prices are also considered. TC-SIM can be played in different user modes: as ‘free riders’, ‘techno-optimists’, ‘enviro-optimists’, ‘complacent car addicts’ and other typical travel market segments, including a ‘free role’. Game playing or scenario testing such as this helps to highlight perceived levels of homogeneity of views within certain cohorts, the development of entrenched positions and the likely success in achieving objectives.The paper develops various policy packages, scenarios and pathways aimed at reducing transport CO₂ emissions. It argues that strategic CO₂ emission reduction targets are very ambitious relative to current progress, and that we need to act more effectively across a wide range of policy mechanisms, with a ‘high intensity application’ of many of the options, to get near to achieving these targets. A critical issue here will be in communicating and gaining greater ‘ownership’ of future lifestyle choices with stakeholders and the public, and participation tools such as TC-SIM could become increasingly important in this area.     

Analysis of greenhouse gas emissions of freight transport sector in China

Due to the increasing commercial activities in China, the rapid growth of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the freight transport sector has alarmed the Chinese central government. However, there is a lack of standard measure for evaluating GHG emissions generated from freight transport operations. To improve this situation, Chinese policy makers need to evaluate GHG emissions for energy saving and pollution reduction. This background leads us to examine the GHG emission trajectories and features of Chinese freight transport patterns in the last decade, i.e. between 2000 and 2011. In this study, we examine different regions’ freight turnover and energy consumption by various transport modes (i.e. railway, highway, waterway, aircraft, and oil pipeline) in China. Our results show that the total amount of GHG emissions caused by the Chinese freight transport sector reached 978 million tons in 2011, indicating an average annual growth of 74 million tons CO₂e for the last decade. Shandong, Anhui, and Henan are the main provinces producing GHG emissions, representing 11.7%, 10.3%, and 10% of total emissions generated from the freight transport sector in China, respectively. This study also compares the regional GHG emissions from different freight transport modes including railway, highway, waterway, air transport, and oil pipeline. Based on the findings, policy implications are provided on how to mitigate freight transport emissions among different Chinese regions.     

Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints

The paper first describes an inventory for 2005 giving the tourism related CO₂ emission caused by global tourism, and presents a 30-year projection and a 45-year simulation. The study found that tourists cause 4.4% of global CO₂ emissions. Also these emissions are projected to grow at an average rate of 3.2% per year up to 2035. This increase is problematic as globally a reduction of emissions by 3–6% is required to avoid ‘dangerous’ climate change. Using contemporary scenario techniques it appeared difficult to find a future tourist travel system consistent with CO₂ emission reductions of up to 70% by 2050 with respect to 2005. Based on the model underlying the 30-year projection, 70 scenarios are presented in a ‘landscape’ graph exploring the effect of opportunities to reduce the emissions, but this attempt did not reach the large reductions envisaged. We therefore explored automated scenario generation as a way to define backcasting scenarios that both reach the emission reduction target and retain the highest possible economic value for the sector. The main contributions made by this study are (1) in comparing the value of different ways to approach a (desired) future and (2) giving insight into the kind of structural changes required within tourism and tourism transport in case very strong emission reductions are required. Finally the model showed signs of ‘complex’ behaviour.     

Planning for low carbon mobility: Impacts of transport interventions and location on carbon-based accessibility

Accessibility has been conceptualized and applied in different ways, depending on the underlying political objectives. In the context of climate change and ambitious emission reduction targets, environmental concerns have risen high on the political agenda. Existing methods for assessing transport-related environmental impacts typically depend on realized or modeled travel behavior. Many of them do not entail a spatial dimension, ignore the importance of the land use component, lack scenario building capabilities or have limited communication value. Consequently, accessibility analysis and planning could make a valuable contribution towards a low carbon transition, but needs to attune to the specific objective of reducing transport-related greenhouse gas emissions. This paper introduces a novel conceptualization of location-based accessibility, where CO₂ emissions are used as a travel cost in place of time or monetary costs. By identifying and assessing options for interventions in the land use and transport system, carbon-based accessibility instruments might serve a number of potential decision-making purposes related to low carbon mobility planning. Carbon-based accessibility of a business park in the Munich region is analyzed in multiple scenarios to demonstrate the application potential of the method. The experiential application focuses on the effects of changes in vehicle efficiency and occupancy rates of both car and transit, but also compares the resulting carbon-based accessibility levels to alternative sites with the transport system unchanged. Applying carbon-based accessibility instruments to real-world planning issues could enhance strategic decision-making processes in the context of climate change mitigation.     

Carbon dioxide emissions and inland container transport in Taiwan

The aim of this study is to estimate the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from inland container transport during the time period of 1998-2008 and predicts the trend of these emissions. The analyses show that the CO₂ emission from inland container transport in 1992 reached 1.03 million tonnes, and the figure drastically increased by 89.3% to 1.95 million tonnes in 2008. Using a multiple regression model, gross domestic product (GDP) and oil price are found to be the key drivers for CO₂ emission. The CO₂ mitigation strategies are discussed in the policy suggestions given that Taiwan is warming at twice global average rate.     

An analysis of the greenhouse gas emissions profile of airlines flying the Australian international market

International commercial flights (with the exception of flights between countries in European Union including Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein) are currently not subject to greenhouse gas emission reduction regulation. To formulate effective and efficiency policy to manage greenhouse gas emissions from air transport, policy makers need to determine the emissions profiles of all airlines currently flying into their country or region. In this paper, we use 2012 data on airlines' aircraft characteristics, passenger load and cargo load (obtained from statistics reported by Australian Government Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics) to estimate the volume and carbon efficiency on each international route flying to and from Australia. This is the first study to use actual passenger and cargo load data to determine the greenhouse gas (specifically CO₂) efficiency of airlines operating in the Australian international aviation market. Airlines' CO₂ emission profile is dependent on many factors including but not limited to the aircraft used, payload, route taken, weather conditions. Our results reveal that the airlines’ CO₂ emission profile is not only dependent on the aircraft used and the number of passengers but also the amount of cargo on each flight.     

Transitions to low carbon transport futures: strategic conversations from London and Delhi

Climate change is a global problem and across the world there are major difficulties being experienced in reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The transport sector in particular is finding it difficult to reduce CO₂ emissions. This paper reports on two studies carried out by the authors in London (UK) and Delhi (India). It considers the common objectives for transport CO₂ reduction, but the very different contexts and baselines, potentials for change, and some possible synergies.Different packages of measures are selected and scenarios developed for each context which are consistent with contraction and convergence objectives. CO₂ reduction potentials are modelled and quantified by package and scenario. London is considering deep reductions on current transport CO₂ emission levels; Delhi is seeking to break the huge projected rise in transport CO₂ emissions.The scale of policy intervention required to achieve these goals is huge and there is certainly little public discussion of the magnitude of the changes required. The paper argues for a ‘strategic conversation’ at the city level, using scenario analysis, to discuss the priorities for intervention in delivering low carbon transport futures. A greater focus is required in developing participatory approaches to decision making, alongside network investments, urban planning, low emission vehicles and wider initiatives. Aspirations towards equitable target emissions may assist in setting sufficiently demanding targets. Only then is a wider awareness and ownership of potential carbon efficient transport futures likely to take place.     

‘60-20 emission’—The unequal distribution of greenhouse gas emissions from personal,non-business travel in the UK

Relatively little is known about the composition of greenhouse gas emissions from personal, non-business travel at the disaggregate levels. This paper aims to give insights into the distribution of emissions amongst the UK population. When including non-carbon climate effects air travel dominates overall greenhouse gas emissions. There is a huge range in emissions, with the highest 20% of emitters producing 61% of emissions. This ‘60-20 emission’ rule is surprisingly similar across units and scale of the analysis. Disaggregated data tell a different story than aggregated data. While income, working status, age and car ownership are significantly related to overall emissions, factors related to accessibility, household location and gender are not.     

Analysis on bargaining about global climate change mitigation in international aviation sector

Understanding the basic interaction mechanism among nations surrounding the CO₂ emissions is critically important for the policy formulation analysis in aviation sector at present, especially for market-based measures such as emission allowance trading. We performed simulation analysis of the effects on pricing of emission allowances by including major players such as China and India into the hypothetical global CO₂ emission trading scheme according to non-cooperative game framework. In the presence of a negative public good, i.e., CO₂, we extended the Lindahl–Bowen–Samuelson condition to include a class of uncertainty typical in climate change policy into utility. By using the result, we explained, with some numerical examples, the welfare effects caused by the changes of factors, such as level of uncertainty, degree of risk averse, asymmetric utility structure, initial allocation among players, based on our model surrounding the bargaining of CO₂ emissions allocation games.     

Emerging cycling policy in Moscow,Russia: The role of international policy transfer

Over the past four decades, commuter cycling has become a planning issue in cities that did not have established cycling cultures. This category includes post-Socialist cities with recent and strong automobility systems and limited cycling planning experiences. This article seeks to demonstrate how transfer of policy ideas from other contexts has contributed to the emergence of cycling policies in the largest post-Socialist city, Moscow, Russia, in the mid 2000s - 2016. Policy transfer means the diverse processes of acquiring policy ideas from other planning contexts and adapting this knowledge to shape local policies. The article is based on the results of a study that combined policy transfer questions with policy ethnography methodology that entailed prolonged field work and interviews with diverse policy actors and beneficiaries. This article aims to answer a question: How did policy learning, transfer and translation contribute to the emergence of Moscow's cycling policy? The article concludes that policy transfer facilitated cycling planning in Moscow by providing fast solutions, informing and legitimizing policy decisions, and temporarily leveraging cyclists' advocacy efforts. However, policy learning and transfer do not guarantee acceptance or successful implementation of policies. Integration of cycling into transport policies depends on an interplay of local institutional, political, and socio-spatial factors that influence decision-making. Constraints to implementing cycling policies include a peculiar car-culture, technocratic planning with a significant role of state actors and other elite groups, and insufficient opportunities for Moscow's cycling community to influence policy-making. These findings contribute to the transport policy and geography literature by exploring the role of policy transfer in cycling planning and by focusing on a less known transport policy context: post-Socialist cities outside the European Union.     

Transport policy and environmental impacts: The importance of multi-instrumentality in policy integration

Despite the introduction of many instruments in the transport system, they failed to reach their target since gains in global environmental efficiency have not been enough to cope with the consequences of transport growth. The ultimate environmental challenge for transport policy makers is to improve the effectiveness of implementation of policy instruments. This paper explores the concept of multi-instrumentality as a systematic approach for transport policy integration and implementation. Based on extensive literature review, we assess a set of 14 transport policy instruments (weaknesses, strengths and barriers to implementation) and perform a pair-wise analysis of potential synergies in their integrated implementation. Conclusions are drawn on the potential success of multi-instrumentality.     

The failure of integrated transport policy in Germany: a historical perspective

In order to reach a sustainable traffic development, the European Union follows the central idea of an integrated transport policy. In contrast to the widely accepted concept, the EU recently had to admit that in fact transport development goes in the opposite direction. This contradiction has to be explained. The article describes the long lasting succession of efforts to implement a far-reaching cooperation in the transport sector as is aspired to by an integrated transport policy. In each case, though, the political idea of cooperation was superseded by the economic one of competition. Therefore, the author argues in favour of a detailed scientific analysis of the necessary political conditions for an integrated transport policy, instead of continuing an untested concept.     

Aviation’s inclusion in international climate policy regimes: Implications for the Caribbean tourism industry

Nations with tourism dependant economies are becoming increasingly concerned about the inclusion of aviation in greenhouse gas mitigation policy for international bunker fuels and more recently adaptation policy proposals. The central concern is that such policies will increase the cost of traveling by air, therefore reducing visitor arrivals to long-haul, tourism-dependent destinations, often small island developing states. This study used a tourism arrivals model to examine the implications of currently proposed climate policies for the world’s most tourism dependant region – the Caribbean. Results indicate that under current proposals for both mitigation and adaptation focused climate policy, reductions in tourist arrivals from the major markets of Europe and North America would be negligible versus business as usual growth projections Only under the most stringent mitigation policy scenario. Which may portend a post-2020 policy regime, is a significant decrease in tourist arrivals predicted. Of the climate policies assessed, the adaptation policy had the potential to provide greater economic benefits to the Caribbean region.