What explains the missing girls in nineteenth-century Spain?

Infant and childhood sex ratios in nineteenth-century Spain were abnormally high, thus pointing to some sort of unexplained excess female mortality. This article analyses internal regional variation and shows that certain economic and social factors mitigated gender discrimination against newborn and/or young girls. In particular, the presence of wage labour opportunities for women and the prevalence of extended families in which different generations of women cohabited had beneficial effects on girls’ survival. Likewise, infant and child sex ratios were lower in dense, more urbanized areas.     

Does microcredit reduce the gender gap in employment? Evidence from Egypt

In Egypt, there is a remarkable gap between men's and women's participation in the labour market. In this study, we examine the impact of microcredit on the labour supply of men and women and subsequently investigate whether microcredit can reduce the employment gap between men and women in Egypt. We find a negative effect of microcredit on men's employment, but a positive effect on the employment of women. Borrowing from a microcredit source increases the probability of women working by 8.5 percentage points and mainly affects self‐employed work. We also find a positive effect of microcredit on work in small businesses. This finding suggests that women can use microcredit to open small shops or household businesses. Finally, using decomposition analysis, we find that microcredit reduces the overall employment gap between men and women by 0.743%.     

The impact of tariff reductions on firm dynamics and productivity in China: Does market-oriented transition matter?

This paper investigates the impact of trade liberalization on firm dynamics and productivity in the context of dramatic tariff reductions after China's accession to the WTO, and how this impact varies across regions with different marketization levels. Our results show that (a) on average, output tariff reductions tend to reduce firm entry rate and increase firm exit rate, while input tariff reductions help to increase both firm entry rate and exit rate, furthermore, regional marketization strengthens the impact of trade liberalization on firm dynamics; (b) trade liberalization exerts greater impact on the likelihood of exit for the least productive firms while it tends to reduce the probability of exit for the more productive firms, with regional marketization strengthening such a reallocation process of trade liberalization; (c) firm dynamics effect contributes approximately 43% of the growth of productivity, and it (especially the firm exit effect) is an important channel through which trade liberalization fosters productivity growth, and domestic market reform is found to strengthen such an impact.     

Did Muhammad Ali foster industrialization in early nineteenth‐century Egypt?

Muhammad Ali, who ruled Egypt between 1805 and 1849, intervened in Egyptian markets in an attempt to foster industrialization, especially between 1812 and 1840. Like a modern marketing board, the state purchased agricultural commodities (cotton and wheat) at low prices and sold them on world markets at much higher prices, a policy equivalent to an export tax. Ali also replaced tax farming with his own land taxes. The revenues so derived were used in part to finance manufacturing investment and to build irrigation canals. In addition, Ali supplied flax and cotton at those cheap purchase prices to domestic textile manufacturing, thus subsidizing the industry. He also used non‐tariff barriers to exclude foreign competition from domestic markets. Were Ali's state‐led policies successful in fostering industry? The answer is no easier to extract from this phase of Egyptian history than from that of other poor countries at that time. This is because Egypt faced the same terms of trade boom typical of most poor commodity exporters, which was causing de‐industrialization everywhere else in the poor periphery. Ali picked a very difficult time to pursue his agenda, but we show that his policies were successful.     

The Chinese Phillips curve – inflation dynamics in the presence of structural change

This paper models inflation dynamics in China from 1987 to 2014 using a Phillips curve framework. The Phillips curve is generally estimated under the assumption of linearity and parameter constancy. The existence of structural breaks in China’s inflation dynamics make standard linear models inappropriate tools for analysis however. Our results find that the Chinese Phillips curve is characterised by a non-linear relationship. The inflation/output relationship takes the form of a concave curve. This suggests that changes in the level of output effect inflation in China more strongly in periods when output is operating below its potential but the relationship is weaker when output is operating at or above potential. Based on these findings, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) could consider output cost and policy response on a case-by-case basis depending on the level of output in relation to potential.     

“Flying geese” in China: The textile and apparel industry's pattern of migration

China has large regional variations in both factor endowments and levels of economic development. In principle, some industrial enterprises will relocate to the inland regions from the coastal regions to take advantage of lower wage rates and land prices, provided that the regions are different enough. However, few studies have empirically tested whether this kind of “flying geese” pattern of domestic industrial relocation has occurred on the ground or not. Using data from the textile and apparel industry from 1998 to 2011, this paper shows the existence of the “flying geese” pattern of industrial relocation. Data show that before around 2005, the textile and apparel industry was clustered in the eastern region of China, but it has since shifted toward the central and western regions.     

The dynamics of housing affordability for the population of Russia in 2008–2014

The article discusses the dynamics of affordability for the Russia’s population of purchase of ownership of housing in the period between the two crises of 2008 and 2014. We conducted a comparative analysis of the results of housing affordability assessment made using different methods. We constructed a typology of Russian regions, i.e., subjects of the Russian Federation on a classical housing affordability index. We made an estimate of the proportion of housing affordable for acquisition by the population and the proportion of households with the opportunity to purchase standard housing. Multivariate calculations conducted will improve the objectivity and reliability of the assessment of housing affordability level. It is shown that the financial affordability of housing in Russia after the crisis of 2008 has increased in all considered indices.     

Where have all the brides gone? Son preference and marriage in India over the twentieth century

Marriage is universal for women in India, but the marriage rate for men varies across regions, where the region is a proxy for shared cultural norms. A preference for sons results in a biased sex ratio towards men and creates a shortage of brides in the marriage market. Using the Indian census of 1931, the article finds that son preference was a regional phenomenon and led to a low marriage rate for men. Using caste‐level information, the article finds no evidence that men from the upper castes enjoyed an advantage in the marriage market as the theoretical literature predicts. The regional differences in gender bias and marriage market outcomes have persisted over the twentieth century and indicate the persistence of cultural values. The long‐run changes show that the marriage squeeze has reduced the surplus of men in all regions; however, the regional differences in son preference and marriage outcomes were still the same in 2001.     

Does the dispersion of unit labor cost dynamics in the EMU imply long-run divergence?

Using unit labor cost (ULC) data from Euro area countries as well as US States and German Länder we investigate inflation convergence using different approaches, namely panel unit root tests, cointegration tests and error-correction models. All in all we cannot reject convergence of ULC growth in EMU. However, country-specific deviations from the rest of the currency union are much more pronounced and much more persistent in Europe than in the US or Germany. This holds before and after the introduction of the common currency. Hence, asymmetric shocks in the future might take a long time to dissipate.     

Exchange rate dynamics in Indonesia: 1980–1998

This paper estimates the equilibrium level of the real exchange rate for Indonesia in order to measure the extent of overvaluation of the rupiah at the time of the Asian crisis in 1997. The equilibrium level of the real exchange rate is measured using co-integration approach, unobserved component model and structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The paper uses these models to analyze the developments in the exchange rate policy. None of the models support overvaluation of the rupiah to justify the massive depreciation in 1997.     

Migration,marriage and social mobility: Women in Sweden 1880–1900

We study the intergenerational social mobility of women by looking at how migration was associated with socioeconomic marriage mobility using complete-count census data for Sweden. The censuses 1880–1900 have been linked at the individual level, enabling us to follow almost 100,000 women from their parental home to their new marital household. Marriage market imbalances were not an important push factor for migration but we find a strong association between migration distance and marriage outcomes, both in terms of overall marriage probabilities and in terms of partner selection by SES. These results highlight the importance of migration for women's intergenerational social mobility during industrialization.     

The land question in KwaZulu: Is land reform necessary?

Land reform in the ‘homelands’ depends on whether or not a viable economy can emerge in these areas. If not, the only alternative may be to accept the failure of rural development and follow the new state policy line of ‘positive urbanization’. Outside the limits of state policy, the apparent consensus on freehold tenure may be illusory. Black‐held priorities for land appear to differ at base from those held up by white groups. White business interests want to see large‐scale commercial farming, while blacks want the free and secure right to hold and deal in land, together with a right to use rural land for residential purposes.

There is renewed international interest in land reform. Some of the Far Eastern market economies have obtained startling rises in production under a reform regime of owner‐operated mini‐farms. It is doubtful if this type of reform is appropriate in KwaZulu, where the tenure system already strongly protects the universal right to hold land, and where the community's small role in land matters is still important to local self‐organization capacity. More appropriate models might be found in Zimbabwe and China, which have also achieved sharp rises in small‐farm production without full freehold tenure. Zimbabwe's village committee system recognizes existing land rights and allows for substantial local option. In China, decentralization policies seem to be encouraging a new rural economy in which most of the population may eventually be absorbed into self‐generated nonfarm activity. This kind of enterprise‐led rural development, may offer a possible pattern for KwaZulu.     

Financial crisis and saving–investment dynamics in the presence of cross-sectional dependence: The case of East Asia

Using the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) technique to a set of balanced panel error correction model, we examine the effects of the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the global financial crisis of 2008 on the behavior of saving and investment in East Asian countries. Our results show that saving and investment rates are highly dependent across countries of East Asia. This finding underlines the importance of taking into account cross-sectional dependence when analyzing saving–investment relationship. The results also indicate that the adverse financial shock of 1997 has negatively affected the short run correlation between saving and investment, but has not influenced their long run relationship. Our finding, hence, verifies the prediction of new open economy macroeconomic theories regarding the divergence of short run saving–investment from its long run trend for East Asia. Moreover, we find that the global financial crisis of 2008 has not affected the saving–investment dynamics in this region. It means that the consequences of the Asian and global financial crises for saving–investment dynamics are not the same in East Asia. One might attribute these differences to the origins of these two shocks, i.e., internal versus external to the region. These findings may have some policy implications for those countries that rely heavily on foreign investment and are subject to various internal and external financial shocks.     

The basic needs approach: A missing ingredient in development theory?

The poor record of conventional development theories in reducing poverty in developing countries may result from the neglect of certain preconditions that are necessary before the people of a developing country are receptive to conventional economic stimuli. The basic needs approach, in its various forms, focuses on some of these requirements through its emphasis on human development and the recognition that economic development does not take place in a social vacuum.

In this article a critical threshold of basic needs satisfaction is said to be a necessary, but not sufficient, precondition for economic development. Only if such a threshold has been achieved, will a population be receptive to those elements responsible for successful development in economically more‐advanced societies.     

The gender wage gap in Myanmar: Adding insult to injury?

Using two surveys from 2017, we analyze the gender wage gap for urban workers in Myanmar. We start from a standard wage equation and condition on education, experience, health and a small set of household demographic attributes. Subsequently we control for differences in occupational choice and sector of employment. We estimate the models with sample selection correction and this leads to estimated average wage offers that are lower than the observed average wages for women. Selection into wage work results in a workforce where female wage-workers have higher levels of education compared to their male counterparts. However, average wages for female workers continue to be 29% lower than male average wages. Differences in observable attributes do not account for this gap. Instead, it is associated with a lower base wage and lower remuneration of women’s experience. Going beyond the traditional decomposition methods, we utilize our matched employer–employee survey to generate exact comparisons of female and male production workers with equal levels of education and experience, employed in the same enterprises. Even in this setting, we find a gender wage gap of 13%. Our analysis thus indicates discrimination against women in Myanmar’s labor markets.     

Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison

This paper examines episodes of banking sector distress for a large sample of developed and developing countries, highlighting the experience of Japan. We estimate a multivariate probit model that links the likelihood of banking problems to a set of macroeconomic variables and institutional characteristics. The model predicts a high probability of banking sector distress in Japan in the early 1990s. The likelihood of an episode of banking distress rose in line with the sharp drop in asset prices, deepening recession and a “moral hazard” problem (financial liberalization combined with explicit deposit insurance). J. Japan. Int. Econ., September 1999, 13(3), pp. 155–180. Department of Economics, Social Sciences 1, University of California, Santa Cruz, California 95064 Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E44, G21, O16.     

The dynamics of capital assets in the economy of the Russian Federation over the post-Soviet period (1992–2015)

The authors have considered methods for an alternative assessment of the dynamics of capital assets over 1992–2015, which fundamentally differ from those employed by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), and have presented the results obtained on their basis. Losses of fixed assets incurred by the economy over this period in value terms have also been estimated. The reasons for the current crisis of the Russian economy have been shown in connection with the exhaustion of the Soviet material heritage and ways of handling the crisis have been proposed based on the reduction in household consumption and sharp increase in the share of accumulation and savings.