从应对全球经济失衡视角看东亚经济金融合作

经常项目收支失衡加剧是全球经济失衡的重要体现。近年来,以美国为一极的发达国家经常项目逆差急剧膨胀;而包括中国在内的东亚国家和地区的经常项目顺差不断扩张。由于经常项目赤字滚雪球般地急剧膨胀,加上美国储蓄率过低、财政赤字高涨,导致了美国对国际资本的巨大需求。而东亚地区由于汇率体制和对美经济依存等原因,被动地持有大量美元资产并向美国提供大量资金。全球国际收支失衡不断向主要几个国家和地区集中,从中长期来看这种不均衡现象是不可持续的,东亚国家面临极大的风险。这一背景下,加强东亚区域经济金融合作是必然的选择。     

东亚经济一体化与合作：朝向共同体

长期以来,东亚地区的经济一体化主要靠市场力量推动,区域经济合作则落后于经济一体化进程。亚洲金融危机证明,仅靠市场推动的经济一体化是脆弱的,只有加强区域经济合作,东亚地区才能增强抵御外部风险的能力,保持经济的持续繁荣。亚洲金融危机后,东亚地区迅速建立起“10 3”的合作机制,在加强金融领域合作的同时,也不断拓展在经贸投资等领域的合作,并逐步确立了以建立东亚自由贸易区和东亚共同体的长远奋斗目标。特别是在中国提出与东盟建立自由贸易区后,东亚地区的合作步伐明显加快。尽管目前离建立东亚共同体的长远目标还很遥远,但东亚地区的合作进程已不可逆转,各种形式的合作努力将最终推动长远目标的实现。     

中国在东亚国际垂直专业分工体系中的地位与政策选择

文章通过分析东亚国际垂直分工体系的形成与发展,评价了中国在东亚分工体系中的地位,认为促进区域经济一体化、加快比较优势的转化及提高吸收能力可以促使中国在东亚国际垂直化分工体系中获得更多的分工利益。     

"孤独"的东亚与其区域经济一体化的发展路径

20世纪90年代以来,世界范围内的区域经济一体化掀起了新一轮的发展浪潮。东亚地区区域经济一体化进程却步履蹒跚,相对滞后。本文拟对东亚区域经济一体化的趋势和进程及其相对滞后的原因作一较为客观、深入的探讨,并对其未来可能的发展路径提出自己的见解。     

东亚外商直接投资、技术进步与经济均衡增长

本文利用结构关联方法,实证分析1985~2004年东亚吸引外资是否会带来技术进步,并以此推动经济均衡增长。东亚经济均衡增长经历了三次路径转移,技术进步决定经济均衡增长路径的动态调整,但技术进步的作用具有时滞性。东亚需要增强吸收和转换技术的能力。     

日本经济复苏中的东亚因素

近年,日本经济显现复苏迹象。一般认为,对东亚出口增加是带动经济复苏的牵引力之一。本文通过分析日本与东亚国家和地区间贸易格局的新特点,阐述东亚因素促进日本经济增长的原因,说明互利情况下,日本在东亚地区经济发展中应发挥的作用。     

东亚区域合作新态势及中国的战略调整

1997年东南亚金融危机使东亚各国认识到域内合作的重要性,东亚区域合作蓬勃发展。十年之后的美国次贷危机演变成全球金融危机,客观上推动东亚区域合作呈现出了一些新态势。与此同时,鉴于中国及东亚各国当前面临的发展问题,东亚区域合作应在遵循东盟主导的基础上开拓互联互通务实合作,增强区域凝聚力和内生发展动力,提升合作的机制化水平,实现区域内经济的可持续发展。     

Substituting and Complementing Models of Economic Development in East Asia

This paper assesses the relative merits and demerits of different East Asian models by placing them in a historical perspective. It re-interprets Gerschenkron's model of late industrialization, and extends it to compare East Asian economies in view of substituting and complementing models. It then explains divergent performances among East Asian economies from the late 1990s by examining the different challenges they faced as their economies became mature and more fully open to forces of globalization. In conclusion, the paper discusses the applicability of the East Asian models for today's developing countries.     

全球经济失衡态势下的东亚地区资本流动

在全球经济失衡背景下,东亚地区的资本流动呈现出与以往完全不同的特征,一方面是私人资本不断流入东亚地区且结构均衡,另一方面是大量的资本又从官方储备以购买美国国债的渠道流出东亚地区。今后东亚地区的这种资本流动将受到官方外汇储备变动、美国利率的变化、美元贬值、东亚汇率及其制度的调整等因素的影响。     

东亚地区自由贸易协定进程中的日中竞争

近年来,东亚地区双边多边自由贸易协定加速发展,但拥有巨大合作潜力的中国和日本在探讨自由贸易协定方面却出现了相反的势头,日本不仅回避与中国建立自由贸易区,在东亚地区与中国展开了签署自由贸易协定的竞争,而且在中日关系不和谐的情况下继续制造矛盾。实际上,这些现象是日本实现政治军事大国战略目标的重要组成部分,其原因可以从日本外交政策中找到合乎逻辑的解释。     

区域经济金融合作:东亚应对全球失衡的必然选择

从中长期来看，全球国际收支失衡不断向主要几个国家和地区集中是不可持续的，东亚国家面临极大的风险。这一背景下，加强东亚区域经济金融合作是必然的选择。东亚国家和地区应完善区域合作协调机制、加强区域货币和贸易投资合作，并进一步促进亚洲债券市场发展。     

Religion and Educational Attainment in East Asia: First Evidence from the East Asian Social Survey

Abstract

In this research note, I analyse the effects of religion on educational attainment in four East Asian countries (China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan) using the East Asian Social Survey. Controlling for a host of background variables, ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of educational attainment show that Catholics and Orthodox Christians have on average more education than those with no religious affiliation, while the followers of other Eastern religions (including, among others, Taoism and syncretistic beliefs) have on average less education. The effects for Protestantism and Buddhism differ across the four different countries, probably because they both include various denominations and schools.     

冷战后中美在东亚的制度均势及对中国的启示

冷战结束后,东亚国际关系中出现的新现象是中国的迅速崛起和美国的霸权护持;但与此同时,中美两国之间并未重现冷战时期美苏对抗的局面。中美制度均势可以合理地解释中美互动关系和该地区出现的制度化安全发展趋势。中美制度均势的含义是,中美两国在经济相互依存加深的背景下通过国际制度对彼此实施的机制化制衡。在中美经济相互依存日益加深和共同参与大量国际机制的背景下,中美两国都采取了制度均势行为。在未来相当长时期内,中国的实力仍无法与美国抗衡,在国际体系中无法挑战美国。在中国和平发展的关键时期,我们要避免重蹈日本和德国当年的覆辙,慎言中美对抗。中美制度均势对中美关系发展和中国和平发展的启示在于:中国要继续实施和完善对美制度均势战略;中美都应继续鼓励对方参与东亚地区的国际制度;中美都要继续加深两国间的经济相互依存。     

日本经验与东亚发展型国家

日本经济模式的显著特点就是政府主导,东亚其他国家和地区的发展模式又与日本发展模式极为相似,这就是通常所说的东亚"发展型国家"。那么,日本政府导向型经济的具体特征是什么?对其他东亚国家和地区有什么影响?发展型国家与比较优势是怎样结合的?日本主导的东亚经济格局正在发生那些变化?本文力图回答这些问题。     

超额货币之谜:基于东亚地区的比较分析

文章分析并比较了东亚中日韩三国货币-产出比的特点及其发展变化的内在推动力,发现从指标水平值看,中日两国一致性较强,都具有较高的货币一产出比,而韩国则差异明显;从指标增长率和主要影响因子看,中日韩三国呈现出互有交叉的共同性.在此基础上,该文认为,中国超额货币现象是中国货币政策独立性缺失和国民收入分配格局变动在货币变量上的现实折射.     

EU enlargement and its impacts on East Asia

Ten countries—most completing their transition from socialist-based economies to market economies—are slated to join the European Union (EU) in 2004 and four additional countries are expected to become members at some future dates. Despite the relatively small economic size of the accession countries, this type of deep integration can have non-negligible effects on countries outside of the preferential zone as the reduction in barriers across partners leads to a re-orientation of trade. In this paper, we evaluate the extent of trade adjustments and the economic impacts it will have on the East Asian economies using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The overall macroeconomic effects on East Asia are small. There is some trade diversion, but there may be an opportunity to increase market penetration in some sectors of the expanding EU for which East Asia has a marked comparative advantage. The paper also assesses the relative importance of linking trade openness to productivity and lowering trade costs between the accession countries and the EU-15.     

Revisiting output-price relations in East Asia

Why slower growth and high inflation can occur concurrently, while in other cases growth can be non-inflationary？ Why did aggregate demand policy sometime fail to work, given an orthogonal shock？ This study ponders on these queries by estimating the aggregate supply and aggregate demand curves in four East Asian countries. Applying the Structural Vector Auto-Regression （SVAR） with the restrictions a-la Blanchard and Quah, it is revealed that while the AD and AS curves in most cases follow the textbook definitions, in some countries the AS curve is so fiat that demand expansion would have been effective to stimulate growth, and supply-based policies would be more desirable to control prices. We also found that during the crisis the supply shock played a more significant role in the price fluctuations, suggesting that focusing on AD management alone was not the best approach to take.     

劳动力跨境流动和东亚货币合作

劳动力要素在货币区内各国或地区之间的跨境流动性是货币合作机制得以长期巩固和发展的决定性基础。东亚各国和地区目前的劳动和社会保障制度特征对劳动力跨境自由流动构成阻碍,必须进行双边和多边的统一和协调,以促进东亚国家和地区之间的劳动力流动合作,推动货币合作进程。     

东亚经济格局的变动及其对两岸经贸关系的影响

20世纪90年代以来,东亚经济格局发生重大变化,由日本″单极″变成了中日″双头″。这一变化导致两岸经济从单方面的依赖到互相依赖;在贸易平衡、外汇储备等方面台湾对祖国大陆更加依赖;台商投资从短期经营到本土化经营;两岸产业分工从产业间发展到产业内、产品内;两岸从企业间一般技术合作到行业组织间标准方面的合作。     

Impacts of Sequential Free Trade Agreements in East Asia: A CGE and Political Economy Analysis

Abstract

This paper estimates the economic impacts of the various sequential liberalization scenarios in East Asia, emphasizing the significance of the “sequence” of the liberalization process in computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The major findings are as follows: (1) “Sequence” matters in measuring the economic impacts of free trade agreement (FTA) scenarios in the region; (2) Scenario 1 (Korea-China FTA → Korea-Japan FTA → China-Japan FTA) is the sequence maximizing Korea's economic gains, whereas Scenario 3 (Korea-China-Japan FTA) is the one most preferred economically by China and Japan; (3) Korea's FTAs with the United States (US) and European Union (EU) can be evaluated as a preemptive strategic move, causing changes in FTA preferences of Korea and Japan; (4) the prediction of Bond and Baldwin (adjustment cost and juggernaut effect) and that of Evenett et al. (trade diversion effect) are supported by the empirical results that Korea's (China's) expected gains from northeast Asian FTA sequences increase (decrease) after Korea's FTAs with the US and EU are made; (5) predictions about the International Political Economy (IPE) theories (power consideration and domestic politics) upon the sequential FTA formations in East Asia are consistent with the findings above.