Who Supports Free Trade in Latin America?

This paper examines individual trade policy preferences across 17 countries in Latin America. The focus is on whether skilled or unskilled workers are more likely to support liberalised trade and on whether country characteristics, such as factor endowments, alter the preferences of skilled and unskilled workers. Based on the standard Heckscher‐Ohlin model and the Stolper‐Samuelson theorem, wage inequality in developing countries will decrease under free trade and unskilled workers will benefit. We find that on average skilled workers are more likely than unskilled workers to support free trade in Latin American countries. Separate country regressions reveal that this pattern is only statistically significant in 8 out of 17 Latin American countries. However, there are no countries in our sample in which unskilled workers are statistically more likely to support free trade than skilled workers, not even in the lowest skill‐endowed country in the sample. We also find that people from Latin American countries with higher GDP, faster growth, more cropland and a longer period of time since reform were more likely on average to support free trade.     

Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What are the Links?

This paper asks whether a developing country's own trade liberalisation could translate into increased poverty, and what information would be required to identify whether it will do so. It plots the channels through which such effects might operate, identifying the static effects via four broad groups of institutions – households, distribution channels, factor markets and government – and the dynamic issues of volatility, long–term economic growth, and short–term adjustment stresses. An increase in the price of something a household sells (labour, good, service) increases its welfare. Thus, the paper first explores the likely effects of trade liberalisation on the prices of goods and services, taking into account the distribution sector. Also critical is whether trade reform creates or destroys markets. Trade reform is also likely to affects factor prices – of which the wages of the unskilled is the most important for poverty purposes. If reform boosts the demand for labour–intensive products, it boosts the demand for labour and wages and/or employment will increase. However, not all developing countries are relatively abundant in unskilled labour and trade can boost demand for semi–skilled rather than unskilled, labour. Hence poverty alleviation is not guaranteed. Trade reform can affect tariff revenue, but much less frequently and adversely than is popularly imagined. Even if it does, it is a political decision, not a law of nature, that the poor should suffer the resulting new taxes or cuts in government expenditure. Opening up the economy can reduce risk and variability because world markets are usually more stable than domestic ones. But sometimes it will increase them because stabilisation schemes are undermined or because residents switch to riskier activities. The non–poor can generally tide themselves over adjustment shocks from a liberalisation, so public policy should focus on whether the initially poor and near temporary, setbacks. The key to sustained poverty alleviation is economic growth. There is little reason to fear that growth will not boost the incomes of the poor. Similarly, while the argument that openness stimulates long–run growth has still not been completely proven, there is every presumption that it will.     

Foreign direct investment and inequality: Evidence from China's policy change

In this paper, we examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on local urban inequality in China. Specifically, we consider the FDI policy change as an exogenous shock on the local labour markets. We find that cities that have experienced a bigger policy change in promoting FDI between 1997 and 2002 are significantly more unequal in 2005. This pattern is mainly driven by the positive association between FDI liberalisation and skill premia. The result holds after we control for other policy changes, such as privatisation of state-owned enterprises, infrastructure and trade liberalisation. We then turn to investigate the mechanisms using firm and individual-level information. Our firm-level evidence shows that FDI firms not only hire relatively more high-skilled workers but also provide relatively higher wages to high-skilled workers compared to domestic firms. Moreover, the individual-level analysis shows that FDI has a significantly positive spillover effect on wages received by skilled workers employed by state-owned enterprises, but not wages of unskilled workers.     

对外贸易对我国城乡收入差距影响的实证分析

本文利用1978-2007年间我国31个省市的面板数据,对进出口贸易对我国城乡收入差距影响的效应进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,对外贸易是影响我国城乡收入差距的重要因素。对外贸易主要通过就业和工资水平途径影响国内城乡收入差距,不同时期,对外贸易对我国不同类型劳动者的就业及其工资水平的影响不同。对外贸易对我国就业的影响主要表现为就业数量扩大效应和就业质量偏向效应,就业数量扩大效应有利于缩小城乡收入差距,就业质量偏向效应扩大了城乡收入差距,对外贸易对我国城乡居民收入差距的影响就是这两种效应的综合。因此,我国政府应高度重视对外贸易的城乡收入分配效应,趋利避害,综合实施各种措施,同时达到经济发展和城乡居民收入差距缩小的目标。     

Optimal immigration, education and growth in the long run

The paper extends Manning's model on education and balanced growth to include labour immigration. Each immigration unit is assumed to consist of one skilled worker and some unskilled members. The optimal immigration policy which maximizes the per capita steady-state consumption of the host country is derived. We show that optimal immigration policy can reduce the steady-state skilled labour ratio. More interesting still, contrary to the widespread belief that immigration of skilled workers hurts local skilled workers, it is the unskilled local workers whose interests are threatened by optimal immigration policy.     

Efficiency wages,unemployment and international factor movements

This paper examines the implications of unemployment resulting from efficiency wages for international factor movements in a standard Heckscher-Ohlin model where the relative size of the endowments of skilled and unskilled workers and the efficiency wage induced unemployment level in the unskilled labour market are simultaneously determined given the population, supply of capital and its distribution in the economy. Capital in the economy is used only to train individuals for the skilled labour market, where workers are fully employed. It is shown that the optimum labour inflow in the market with domestic distortion and the optimum capital inflow are always positive because they reduce the severity of distortion by raising employment and income for the residents. The income and employment of foreigners also increase. Under this situation the optimum labour or capital outflow on the other hand is always zero. These conclusions directly contradict the result obtained for international factor movements in the presence of exogenously determined unemployment.     

Trade liberalization and the evolution of skill earnings differentials in Brazil

Skilled labor earnings differentials decreased during the trade liberalization implemented in Brazil from 1988 to 1995. This paper investigates the role of trade liberalization in explaining these relative earnings movements. We perform several independent empirical exercises that check the traditional trade transmission mechanism, using disaggregated data on tariffs, prices, earnings, employment and skill intensity. We find that: i) employment shifted from skilled to unskilled intensive sectors, and each sector increased its relative share of skilled labor; ii) relative prices fell in skill-intensive sectors; iii) tariff changes across sectors were not related to skill intensities, but the pass-through from tariffs to prices was larger in skill-intensive sectors; iv) the decline in skilled earnings differentials mandated by the price variation predicted by trade was even larger than the observed one. The results are compatible with trade liberalization accounting for the observed relative earnings changes in Brazil. They also highlight the importance of considering the effects of differentiated pass-through from tariffs to prices.     

Economic Reform,Skill Formation and Foreign Capital

Does trade liberalisation promote skill formation and positively influence the inflow of foreign capital in an economy? How do incentives offered to foreign capital affect skill formation and skilled‐unskilled wage inequality? Is liberalisation of agricultural exports counterproductive to skill formation and foreign capital inflow in the economy? We try to capture these relationships between foreign capital and skill formation in a small open economy facing various exogenous shocks. Among other results, we show that import liberalisation increases skill formation and the inflow of foreign capital in the country. We explore the evolving state of the skilled‐unskilled wage gap in a regime of greater skill formation.     

Efficiency wages,unemployment and international factor movements

"This paper examines the implications of unemployment resulting from efficiency wages for international factor movements in a standard Heckscher-Ohlin model where the relative size of the endowments of skilled and unskilled workers and the efficiency wage induced unemployment level in the unskilled labour market are simultaneously determined given the population, supply of capital and its distribution in the economy.... It is shown that the optimum labour inflow in the market with domestic distortion and the optimum capital inflow are always positive because they reduce the severity of distortion by raising employment and income for the residents. The income and employment of foreigners also increase. Under this situation the optimum labour or capital outflow on the other hand is always zero. These conclusions directly contradict the result obtained for international factor movements in the presence of exogenously determined unemployment."     

The rise of the machines: Capital imports and real manufacturing wages in 57 nations

Outward-oriented policy reform has attracted a large number of academics to the study of the trade-labour market nexus. One of these fields has focused on capital intensive (machinery) imports and its effect on manufacturing wages. The skill-enhancing-trade (SET) hypothesis was put forth to explain a potential relationship where an inflow of capital imports results in increased demand for skilled labour and decreased that of unskilled labour, and thus resulted in a rise in skilled wages and a decrease in their unskilled counterparts. This study revisits this hypothesis with a panel from the manufacturing sector of 57 nations. We improve upon previous studies in a number of ways. We add developed nations to the sample and examine capital imports from rich countries as well as the rest of the world. This takes into account the prominence of vertical production networks in international trade. We adhere closely to the neo-classical trade model and employ definitions of skilled and unskilled workers that capture the production process of particular items. Finally, we fit a robust dynamic panel data model that accounts for the endogeneity of the determinants of trade and wages. In this way we test whether the SET hypothesis is generally applicable as opposed to previous studies which use an ad hoc selection of countries and variables. We find that the SET hypothesis is not driving changes in manufacturing wages. Instead, worker productivity and GDP per capita explain these labour market outcomes.     

国际产品内贸易对中国收入分配的效应研究——基于中国工业行业数据的经验分析

采用中国35个工业行业的面板数据,检验国际产品内贸易对中国行业内部熟练劳动力和非熟练劳动力收入分配的效应。研究表明:现阶段,与技术进步相比,国际产品内贸易并不是造成中国收入差距拉大的重要影响因素;同时,由于中国熟练劳动力要素禀赋的相对缺乏,国际产品内贸易发生的行业要素密集度不同,对收入分配的影响也不同,其中劳动密集型和资本密集型行业内不同性质劳动者的收入差距会缩小,而技术密集型及兼具资本密集型和技术密集型的行业内收入差距则会拉大。     

Globalisation and union opposition to technological change

Trade unions have a rational incentive to oppose the adoption of labour-saving technology when labour demand is inelastic and unions care much for employment relative to wages. Trade liberalisation typically increases trade union technology opposition. These conclusions are reached in a model of unionised international duopoly with two-way trade. We also find that the incentive for technology opposition is stronger in the more technologically advanced country and in the country with the larger home market, complementing earlier explanations for technological catch-up and leapfrogging.     

The role of trade and offshoring in the determination of relative wages and child labour

Incorporating family decisions in a two-period model of the world economy, we predict that trade liberalization raises the skill premium and reduces child labour in developing countries where the adult labour force is sufficiently well educated to attract production activities from abroad that will increase the demand for skilled relative to unskilled labour. Elsewhere, liberalization will reduce the skill premium, but it will not necessarily raise child labour. Our prediction is not rejected by the data, and it explains why child labour is negatively associated with trade openness in those developing countries where the labour force was relatively well educated when the liberalization took place, but not elsewhere.     

Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda

This paper examines the extent to which various regions, and the world as a whole, could gain from multilateral trade reform over the next decade. The World Bank's Linkage model of the global economy is employed to examine the impact first of current trade barriers and agricultural subsidies, and then of possible outcomes from the WTO's Doha Round. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real incomes in sub‐Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia (and in Cairns Group countries) proportionately more than in other developing countries or high‐income countries. Real returns to farmland and unskilled labour, and real net farm incomes, would rise substantially in those developing‐country regions, thereby helping to reduce poverty. A Doha partial liberalisation could take the world some way towards those desirable outcomes, but more so the more agricultural subsidies are disciplined and applied tariffs are cut, and the more not just high‐income but also developing countries choose to engage in the process of reform.     

Industrial Policy, FDI and Employment: Still ‘Missing a Strategy’

This paper contrasts the effects of trade, inward FDI and technological development upon the demand for skilled and unskilled workers in the UK. By focussing on industry level data panel data on smaller firms, the paper also contrasts these effects with those generated by large scale domestic investment. The analysis is placed within the broader context of shifts in British industrial policy, which has seen significant shifts from sectoral to horizontal measures and towards stressing the importance of SMEs, clusters and new technology, all delivered at the regional scale. This, however, is contrasted with continued elements of British and EU regional policy which have emphasised the attraction of inward investment in order to alleviate regional unemployment. The results suggest that such policies are not naturally compatible; that while both trade and FDI benefit skilled workers, they have adverse effects on the demand for unskilled labour in the UK. At the very least this suggests the need for a range of policies to tackle various targets (including in this case unemployment and social inclusion) and the need to integrate these into a coherent industrial strategy at various levels of governance, whether regional and/or national. This has important implications for the form of any ‘new’ industrial policy.     

The Determinants of GATS Commitment Coverage

This paper investigates hypotheses about the determinants of trade and investment liberalisation with a particular focus on the market access and national treatment commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). We set up a database of these GATS commitments and use the ratio of all commitments listed by a country to the possible number of commitments as a measure of liberalisation of market access/national treatment. Our empirical analysis suggests that larger and ‘richer’ countries commit to more liberal regimes of market access and national treatment. This is surprising since economic theory predicts the largest welfare gains for low‐skilled abundant (skilled‐labour/physical‐capital‐scarce) economies. Also, our findings suggest that liberalisation is stronger among geographically close countries with strong ties in goods trade.     

Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade

This paper discusses the potential impacts of services trade liberalisation on developing countries and reviews existing quantitative studies. Its purpose is to distill themes from current literature rather than to advocate specific policy changes. The picture emerging is one of valiant attempts to quantify in the presence of formidable analytical and data problems yielding only a clouded image of likely impacts on trade, consumption, production and welfare emerging to the point that the policy implications of results are not always clear. A central intuition would seem to be that with genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation in services that are seemingly considerably labour‐intensive in delivery, the potential should be there for significant developing country gains from global liberalisation allowing full cross‐border delivery. However, this picture is neither fully endorsed by available studies, neither is it explicitly contradicted. This seems to be the case for a number of reasons. One difficulty with the studies is that the conceptual underpinnings of what determines trade in services and how this trade differs analytically from that of trade in goods (if at all) is an issue prior to assessments of impacts of liberalisation of trade in services on developing countries being discussed. Key issues here are the treatment of mobility for service providers (both firms and workers), and the differing analytical structures needed to analyse individual service items (banking, insurance, telecoms, etc.). Some recent analytical work suggests that liber‐alisation in some service items, such as banking, need not always yield gains, and this contrasts with quantitative studies where analytical structures mirror conventional trade in goods treatments. The discussion and measurement of barriers to service trade in both developed and developing countries is also problematic. One is talking of domestic regulation, entry barriers, portability of providers, competition policy regimes more so than only barriers at national borders, as with tariffs. Both representing and quantifying such barriers raise major difficulties, and these are also spelled out in the paper. Which barriers actually restrict trade, and which do not because they are redundant is one issue, for instance. It is also often misleading to represent barriers in simple ad valorem equivalent form. As a result, numerical modelling work on the effects of service trade barriers which is based on ad valorem equivalent modelling is often not fully convincing. In addition, individual country results vary considerably across studies in ways that it is frequently hard for outsiders to understand. Studies do, however, point towards a tentative conclusion that effects are small and positive for developed and most developing countries if FDI flow changes accompanying service trade liberalisation are excluded from the analysis, but much larger and more variable across countries if they are present. This could be taken to suggest that mode 3 GATS liberalisation (roughly captured in some studies) might be important for developing countries; but mode 4 GATS liberalisation could be even more important given large barriers to labour flows across countries. Thus, if service trade liberalisation is thought of primarily as a surrogate for improved functioning of global factor markets in which more capital flows to developing countries and more labour flows from them to developed countries, then developing countries could benefit in a major way from genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation. Developing countries fear, however, that in global negotiations on services liberalisation where there is an asymmetry of power that largely one‐sided liberalisation may be the outcome, and their gains will be correspondingly limited. The paper concludes by evaluating econometric studies on linkage between services liberalisation and country growth rules, and briefly discusses some key sectoral issues in health services and transportation.     

Structural Change,Economic Crisis and International Labour Migration in East Asia

Increased international labour migration was one important dimension of structural change and globalisation in East Asia from the mid 1980s. Large international movements of mainly unskilled contract labour occurred in response to widening wage gaps between more and less developed countries in the region as the former experienced rapid structural change. Labour importing countries increasingly relied on unskilled migrant workers in less preferred jobs, in both export‐oriented and non‐tradable goods industries. The Asian economic crisis dramatically influenced the context in which international labour mobility had occurred in the pre‐crisis period. Important issues included a possible reversal in role of international migration in structural change, both among unskilled contract workers and more skilled migrants, and replacement of migrants by unemployed local workers. The paper argues that the Asian economic crisis did not reverse the fundamental trend toward greater reliance on unskilled migrant workers in agriculture, manufacturing and service industries. Business and professional migration remained significant and even rose in some countries during the crisis. However, several countries were forced to develop a more coherent policy towards migrant workers, in light of the social impact of the crisis.     

Migration and trade: Theory with an application to the Eastern-Western European integration

The remarkable increase in trade flows and in migratory flows of highly educated people are two important features of globalization of the last decades. This paper extends a two-country model of inter- and intra-industry trade to a rich environment featuring technological differences, skill differences and the possibility of international labor mobility. The model is used to explain the patterns of trade and migration as countries remove barriers to trade and to labor mobility. We parameterize the model to match the features of the Western and Eastern European members of the EU and analyze first the effects of the trade liberalization which occurred between 1989 and 2004, and then the gains and losses from migration which are expected to occur if legal barriers to labor mobility are substantially reduced. The lower barriers to migration would result in significant migration of skilled workers from Eastern European countries. Interestingly, this would not only benefit the migrants and most Western European workers but, via trade, it would also benefit the workers remaining in Eastern Europe.     

International Outsourcing and the Skill–Specific Wage Bill in Eastern Europe

This paper analyses the effects of international fragmentation in terms of intermediate goods trade on the dynamics of the skilled–to–unskilled labour wage bill ratio in 14 manufacturing industries of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Both intermediate goods exports and imports of the CEEC exhibit a positive impact on the wage bill ratio. Since 1993, intermediate goods trade with the EU alone has accounted for a considerable reduction of the predicted annual change in the skilled–to–unskilled wage bill ratio in the three CEEC.