Foreign multinationals in service sectors: A general equilibrium analysis of Brexit

We examine the role of foreign multinationals in service sectors in the context of Brexit, which is assumed to induce an increase in different types of barriers: (a) FDI barriers to multinationals in services; (b) non-tariff barriers to trade; and (c) import tariffs between the UK and the rest of the EU. We use a state-of-the-art Melitz approach in manufactures with multinationals operating in imperfectly competitive service sectors in a multiregional general equilibrium framework. We find that the increased FDI barriers in services explain about one third of the total welfare loss of Brexit. Furthermore, our decomposition analysis (by introducing each type of barriers separately) shows that the barriers against the EU service multinationals in the UK are harmful to British manufacturing sectors because they face a reduced (and more expensive) supply of intermediate services.     

The GATS and liberalization in a natural-resource rich country

Abstract

We highlight the role of natural resources in countries that use resource revenues to subsidize employment in state-owned services sectors by developing a model of service provision where domestic incumbents and a foreign entrant compete. We find that when natural resource prices have a higher likelihood of increasing, domestic firms control most of the market share but that industry output drops. However, the output of the services industry rises with domestic firms losing market share when natural resource prices are likely to go down. This suggests that a government focused narrowly only on the growth and development of its economy would prefer services liberalization when natural resource prices are likely to be higher.     

Endogenous market structures and the gains from foreign direct investment

This paper discusses the gains from liberalizing foreign direct investment (FDI) in a two-country setting with endogenous market structure. We investigate two different scenarios. In the first scenario, headquarters costs are large in the foreign country so that the industry is located in the domestic country only. In this case, multinational and national firms may coexist and market concentration may make FDI welfare improving for the foreign country and welfare reducing for the domestic country. In the second scenario, headquarters costs are symmetric and firms will be located in both countries. Here, profitable FDI activities lead to mutual welfare gains, irrespective of market structure effects.     

电信服务贸易自由化的经济效应研究综述

GATS框架下的电信多边谈判使世界电信市场的开放进程有了明确的时间表,它通过督促各国积极实践电信承诺来推进电信服务自由化。电信服务贸易自由化不仅促进各国电信服务的相互渗透,而且有利于电信服务消费者福利的改善。电信市场开放以来取得的巨大成就显示了服务贸易自由化对经济的重要作用。     

中国参与区域服务贸易自由化机制与对策研究

中国对外签订区域服务贸易协议的对象多数来自于亚洲和拉美的发展中经济体,呈现出从"货物先行"向"货服并行"转变的趋势。在区域服务贸易自由化机制设计方面,中国引入了四大创新因素:服务贸易规则和投资规则"分立"构架且各自的适用范围界定明确;尝试构建服务贸易紧急保障制度;设置更加严格的服务贸易政策审议机制;针对特定缔约对象采取相对宽泛的服务原产地规则。中国应该从国内规制改革和服务部门开放顺序选择方面做好战略谋划与策略应对。     

我国以FDI形式承接国际服务产业转移的福利效应测度研究

外商直接投资已逐渐成为服务业国际转移的主要方式。本文在Feenstra and Hanson(1997)的外购理论基础上,借鉴R.Posner(1961)以及Fisher and Samuelson(1980)的模型框架,修正了一个服务业转移模型分析其福利效应,并基于我国1989-2005年间的服务业外商直接投资对劳动生产率影响的测度说明:在服务业承接FDI国际转移的初期,东道国的福利效应集中体现为吸收大量非技术性劳动就业,但对人均劳动生产率的影响并不显著;随着FDI的大量涌入,带动国内对于服务业技术性劳动需求及其工资水平增加,激励了非技术性劳动向技术性劳动转变,最终实现了服务业整体人均劳动生产率的显著提高,由此促进了产业结构优化升级,提高了一国整体的福利水平。最后,提出了为更好地实现服务产业的国际接轨,必须逐步放开资本流动管制、营造技术密集型服务业承接软环境等政策建议。     

贸易结构、分工经济与区域服务贸易自由化的福利效应

由于区域内经济体出口相似指数过高,在发展区域服务贸易自由化的过程中会出现竞争,不同区域成员贸易结构和专业化分工特点也影响区域服务贸易自由化的发展。文章以亚洲经济体区域服务贸易自由化发展为例,采用面板数据的因果关系模型,定量分析贸易结构、分工经济与区域服务贸易自由化的福利效应三者之间的关系。研究得出,无论是从长期还是短期来看,服务贸易的互补性和服务贸易的专业化分工都是服务贸易出口额增长的格兰杰原因。     

中国服务业外商直接投资与服务贸易的关系——基于VAR模型的实证研究

本文利用VAR模型对中国服务业外商直接投资与服务贸易的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明,只存在服务出口、服务进口分别是服务业外商直接投资的单向Granger原因,服务业外商直接投资并不是服务出口和服务进口的Granger原因。从长期来看,服务业外商直接投资与服务出口、服务进口均是替代关系,短期来看,服务业外商直接投资与服务出口、服务进口是较弱的互补关系。     

Environmental Policy,North-South Trade and FDI

We analyze trade between two countries, called the North and the South. There is one firm in each country and production costs are lower in the South. To serve foreign markets firms may export or engage in FDI. Both countries set tariffs on imported goods. We find that the implementation of an environmental policy by the South may affect the location decision of the Southern firm. When only the North sets an environmental tax, firms engage in FDI if the difference in costs between the two countries is low, otherwise the South exports and the Northern firm engages in FDI. If the South also sets an environmental tax, this does not restrict FDI by Northern firm, encourages FDI by the domestic firm, reduces its environmental damage and increases joint welfare. Finally, in equilibrium the South decides to implement an environmental policy and both firms engage in FDI.     

Market Structure and Market Access

We explore an issue at the nexus of domestic competition policy and international trade, the interaction between goods trade and market power in domestic trade and distribution sectors. We examine the effect of variations in conditions of domestic competition in services on trade volumes in goods in the cases of both linear and nonlinear import demand, including standard form CES‐based gravity models of bilateral trade flows. Theory suggests a set of linkages between service‐sector pricing and goods trade supported by econometrics involving imports of 22 OECD countries vis‐a‐vis 69 exporters. Competition in distribution services affects the volume of trade in goods. Additionally, because of interaction between tariffs and pricing, the market structure of the domestic service sector becomes increasingly important as tariffs are reduced. Indeed, depending on the degree of competition, market access concessions on tariffs may be effectively undone in some cases by changes in margins. For exporters, we find that service competition in destination markets matters most for exporters from smaller, poorer countries. Our results also suggest that while negotiated agreements leading to cross‐border services liberalisation may boost goods trade as well, they may also lead to a fall in goods trade when such liberalisation involves FDI leading to increased service sector concentration.     

生产性服务贸易自由化与制造业生产率提升：基于跨国数据的分析

生产性服务贸易自由化作为当前的一种主要的对外开放的形式,对国家制造业发展的影响还没有统一的理论和实证研究。文章通过构建理论模型研究生产性服务贸易自由化对制造业生产率影响假设,利用2008-2012年中的69个国家的跨国面板数据来对假设进行检验。通过理论和实证分析发现：生产性服务贸易的自由化可以促进国内制造业生产率的提升,但是提升的作用在不同的国家收入水平和生产性服务业部门间体现出差异性。从国家的收入水平差异来看,生产性服务贸易自由化对高收入国家的影响要大于低收入国家。对于不同生产性服务业部门的自由化影响来看,显著地影响制造业生产率的是金融和商务服务生产性服务业,运输和电信生产性服务业的影响较小且不显著。     

Trade Intermediaries and the Tariff Pass-through

This paper aims at improving our understanding of the price effects of trade policies following two perspectives. First, we wish to study how the role of intermediaries in international trade affects the transmission of tariff changes to domestic prices. Second, we explore how our results are influenced by the degree of competition in the distribution-service market. In a Cournot oligopoly-oligopsony model, we show how the pass-through of tariff cuts to domestic prices is limited by the market power of intermediaries producing distribution services. Our long-run equilibrium is characterized by a larger number of firms selling at a higher mark-up. Market access barriers in distribution services determine to what extent tariff cuts are transferred to domestic consumers and foreign producers, affecting the size of their welfare effects. The benefits of trade liberalization policies can be better achieved if they are complemented by competition enhancing measures in the intermediation sector.     

服务业FDI能促进服务业集聚吗

本文从服务业FDI的影响因素出发,探讨服务业FDI和服务业集聚之间的内生互动机理,研究发现,服务业的集聚性优势已经成为东道国吸引服务业FDI的主要原因,但服务业FDI并不一定能够诱发服务业集聚区的形成和发展。基于中国1991-2009年间服务业FDI数据和服务业集聚指标,本文对两者之间的关系进行验证,以期为区域产业政策的制定提供理论上的借鉴。     

服务业外商直接投资与服务业经济增长:理论与实证研究

本文在剖析服务业FDI促进经济增长作用机制的基础上,对服务业FDI与服务业经济增长的关系进行实证研究。研究结果显示,服务业FDI对服务业经济增长具有显著促进作用,表明服务业FDI通过产业聚集效应、公共服务创造效应以及服务贸易效应对服务业经济的发展施加积极影响。另外,服务业国内投资对服务业经济的拉动作用还有很大的提升空间,在服务业发展过程中应重视与提高内资对服务业发展的作用,实现服务业FDI与服务业国内投资对服务业经济增长的协同推动。     

基于噪声甄别模型的我国FDI福利效应的差异性分析——来自1997-2009年的数据证据

运用含有噪声的甄别博弈模型,分析得出东道国在引资过程中需要结合自身情况和其他引资国的政策制定符合本国福利增进的引资分割点,且东道国引资优惠额度越大反而越有可能损害本国福利。在此基础上结合我国1997-2009年引进FDI数据进行实证分析得出:(1)整体FDI对我国福利效应的增加带来了积极作用,但FDI对收入福利指数的贡献较小,对生产福利指数贡献较大;(2)自2005年开始,制造行业FDI对我国福利增加的贡献率趋于减小且有恶化趋势;而处于农、林、牧、渔业和信息传输、计算机服务和软件行业的FDI对我国福利的贡献率却逐渐增加;(3)处于后危机时代的FDI在引资政策上更应该重视产业导向以提升FDI的正向福利效应。     

FDI and Welfare Dynamics in Africa

This article examines the welfare impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) in a panel of 20 African countries over the period 2000–2013. We explore the multifactor and nonmonetary measures of welfare and the nonlinear effect of FDI on welfare. We used the Driscoll and Kraay standard errors and augmented mean group (AMG) estimator by Eberhardt and Teal (2010) to account for cross‐sectional dependency, endogeneity, and heterogeneity within panel units. The results indicate that although FDI is welfare enhancing, the nonlinear terms report mixed findings. When a multifactor indicator is employed, the increase in the nonlinear term is lower than the linear part. However, there is strong evidence that FDI is ultimately welfare enhancing when a nonmonetary indicator is employed. From an international business perspective, the findings have unlocked the welfare effects of international business on African host economies. International businesses through FDI can enhance welfare in Africa countries. However, the optimal efficacy of FDI‐welfare impact differs across the various dimensions of welfare. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

National welfare in an open economy in the presence of foreign-owned factors of production

In the presence of foreign-owned factors of production in the economy, the effect of trade policy changes on national welfare needs to take into account the possible redistributive effect between foreign-owned and domestic factors. Therefore, an otherwise welfare-improving trade liberalization may paradoxically worsen national welfare. This paper analyzes this important, new area of trade theory and establishes the condition under which this paradox of immiserizing trade liberalization arises. The analysis is also applicable to analyzing the effects of external tariff variation in customs unions, with full internal factor mobility, on member countries' welfare.     

中国企业服务寻求型的海外直接投资——基于面板数据的实证研究

文章旨在研究中国企业海外直接投资活动的服务寻求动机,并对服务寻求型海外直接投资的影响因素进行分析。文章采用面板数据的实证方法,对2003-2009年中国企业对40个国家的OFDI数据进行检验。文章研究结论认为,中国企业OFDI具有服务寻求的目的,东道国生产者服务业的技术含量越高越能够吸引中国企业对其进行投资。并且,这种服务寻求型OFDI与生产者服务业FDI之间存在明显的替代关系。母国严格的投资管制使得服务业FDI受到限制,进而会促使企业以OFDI的方式获取东道国的服务投入。     

中国生产性服务业FDI影响因素实证研究

本文采用动态面板数据分析方法,利用我国20个省市2004-2010年的面板数据,分析我国生产性服务业FDI的影响因素。研究结果表明:(1)整体生产性服务业FDI与市场规模和市场增长潜力呈正向关系,但细分行业中信息传输、计算机服务和软件业,科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业这两个行业并没有像预期的那样会促进其FDI的流入。(2)整体和细分生产性服务业FDI均明显具有追逐制造业FDI的倾向,并且与前期生产性服务业FDI具有正向关系。(3)劳动力工资水平与生产性服务业FDI流入呈正相关,这与绝大多数现有的研究尤其是关于制造业或服务业FDI影响因素的研究结论不同。(4)熟练工人、基础设施系统、政府干预和对外开放程度均与生产性服务业FDI有显著关系,是影响生产性服务业FDI的主要因素。     

中国FDI波动和入世间关系分析

服务业FDI在FDI总量中的比重份额上升,是近年来我国FDI变动的表现特征之一.但随着我国入世过渡期间服务行业的逐步开放,我国服务业FDI将减少,而资本市场的开放又将引起跨国并购形式的FDI增多,故入世后我国FDI总量变化取决于服务业FDI和并购形式FDI两者间此消彼长的关系.适应FDI变化趋势,我国必须依据吸收率大小,审慎实施FDI的规模控制;合理引导FDI的流向和结构;加快完善市场基础环境;提高国内公司治理水平.