International trade and unemployment: Theory and cross-national evidence

We present a model of trade and search-induced unemployment, where trade results from Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) and/or Ricardian comparative advantage. Using cross-country data on trade policy, unemployment, and various controls, and controlling for endogeneity and measurement-error problems, we find fairly strong and robust evidence for the Ricardian prediction that unemployment and trade openness are negatively related. This effect dominates the positive H-O effect of trade openness on unemployment for capital-abundant countries, which turns negative for labor-abundant countries. Using panel data, we find an unemployment-increasing short-run impact of trade liberalization, followed by an unemployment-reducing effect leading to the new steady state.     

International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with labor market frictions

This paper studies how labor market frictions affect the consequences of trade integration in a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and endogenous producer entry. Two main results emerge. First, trade integration is beneficial for welfare by inducing higher productivity, but unemployment can temporarily rise during the transitional adjustment. Labor market rigidities reduce gains from trade, even though they can mitigate short-run employment losses. Second, consistent with the data, the model predicts that stronger trade linkages lead to increased business cycle synchronization. The strength of this effect, however, depends on the labor market characteristics of the integrating partners.     

Protection and unemployment

Job loss concerns strongly influence the politics of trade, yet the formal political economy of trade literature has largely ignored unemployment. This paper seeks to extend the literature by merging an unemployment model with a trade policy model. The theory implies that labor turnover rates and unionization rates may significantly affect protection for individual industries. I use US data to test the model and find that protection for an industry declines with its turnover rate and increases with its unionization rate. The results also imply that protection does not increase with output and increases with the number of unemployed workers.     

Outsourcing, unemployment and welfare policy

The paper investigates the consequences of outsourcing of labor intensive activities to low-wage economies. This trend challenges the two basic functions of the welfare state, redistribution and social insurance when private unemployment insurance markets are missing. The main results are: (i) outsourcing raises unemployment and labor income risk of unskilled workers; (ii) it increases inequality between high- and low-income groups; and (iii) the gains from outsourcing can be made Pareto improving by using a redistributive linear income tax if redistribution is initially not too large. We finally derive the welfare optimal redistribution and unemployment insurance policies.     

The effects of offshoring on the elasticity of labor demand

In this paper, I use detailed plant-level data to analyze the relationship between offshoring and labor demand elasticities in the U.S. manufacturing sector during the 1972-2001 period. The results suggest that conditional demand elasticities for production workers are positively associated with increased exposure to offshoring both in the short-run and in the long-run. This relationship holds both for the unbalanced panel of plants and, for plants which continue their operations throughout the sample period. Controlling for skill biased technical change does not alter the magnitude or the significance of the estimated positive relationship between offshoring and labor demand elasticities.     

Unemployment and relative labor market institutions between trading partners

This paper contributes to the literature that highlights the role of trading partners' institutions for a country's unemployment rate. The objective is to study whether the results established in the minimum wage-setting of Davis (1998) hold when unemployment is driven by search frictions. This paper finds that relative labor market institutions matter for equilibrium unemployment as they generate comparative advantages, but there are two main differences with Davis. With North-North trade, unemployment decreases in the low-regulation country. When South is brought into the picture, low-regulation North is not insulated, and unemployment increases in both developed countries as a result of specialization.     

Trade liberalisation and human capital adjustment

This paper highlights the way in which workers of different ages and abilities are affected by anticipated and unanticipated trade liberalisations. A two-factor (skilled and unskilled labour), two-sector Heckscher-Ohlin trade model is supplemented with an education sector which uses skilled labour and time to convert unskilled workers into skilled workers. A skilled worker's income depends on her ability, but all unskilled workers have the same income. Trade liberalisation in a relatively skilled labour abundant country increases the relative skilled wage and induces skill upgrading by the existing workforce, with younger and more able unskilled workers most likely to upgrade. But not all upgraders are better off as a result of the liberalisation. The older and less able upgraders are likely to lose. For an anticipated liberalisation we show that the preferred upgrading strategies depend on a worker's ability and that much of the upgrading will take place before the liberalisation. Hence some workers who would have upgraded had they anticipated the liberalisation will not if it is unanticipated, and adjustment assistance that applies only to post-liberalisation upgraders will fail to compensate some losers and distort the upgrading decisions of others.     

Managers' mobility,trade performance,and wages

Knowledge is key to the competitiveness and success of an organization and in particular of a firm. Firms and their managers acquire knowledge via a variety of different channels which are often difficult to track down and quantify. By matching employer–employee data with trade data at the firm level we show that the export experience acquired by managers in previous firms leads their current firm toward higher export performance, and commands a sizeable wage premium for the manager. Moreover, export knowledge is decisive when it is market-specific: managers with experience related to markets served by their current firm receive an even higher wage premium; firms are more likely to enter markets where their managers have experience; exporters are more likely to stay in those markets, and their sales are on average higher. Our findings are robust to controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and, more broadly, endogeneity and indicate that managers' export experience is a first-order feature in the data with an impact on a firm's export performance that is, for example, at least as strong as that of firm productivity.     

Labor versus capital in trade-policy: The role of ideology and inequality

Trade policy depends on the extent to which the government wants to redistribute income as well as on a country's overall factor endowments and their distribution. While the government's desire to redistribute income itself is dependent on asset distribution, it is to a large extent also driven by the partisan nature of the government, i.e., whether it is pro-labor or pro-capital. Using cross-country data on factor endowments, inequality and government orientation, we find that, conditional on inequality, left-wing (pro-labor) governments will adopt more protectionist trade policies in capital-rich countries, but adopt more pro-trade policies in labor-rich economies than right-wing (pro-capital) ones. Also, holding government orientation constant, higher inequality is associated with higher protection in capital-abundant countries while it is associated with lower protection in labor-abundant countries. These results are consistent with the simultaneous presence of both inequality as well as ideology as determinants of protection within a two-factor, two-sector Heckscher-Ohlin framework. Overall, various statistical tests support an umbrella model (that combines both the ideology and inequality models) over each of the individual models.     

Globalization, regional wage differentials and the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem: Evidence from Mexico

In this paper, I study what factors determined the changes in Mexico's regional wage differentials during the nineties. I exploit the regional variation in exposure to international markets to identify the effects of NAFTA on wages and the skill premium. The results support the presence of Stolper-Samuelson type of responses during Mexico's trade liberalization: regions more exposed to globalization appear to have exhibited an increase in overall wage levels, but a decrease in the skill premium, relative to other regions of the country. The results suggest that trade liberalization has a spatial dimension that is usually neglected in traditional models.     

Globalisation and factor returns in competitive markets

The standard competitive trade model, extended to include many goods and factors, is used to analyze the effect of goods and factor market integration on average international disparities in the real returns of internationally immobile factors. It is shown that goods market integration decreases international real return differentials for all factors. We derive sufficient conditions for this result to hold for the subgroup of internationally immobile factors as well. While there is a presumption for similar results to hold with international factor market integration, we show that this is true for international migration but in general not for international investment.     

Why trucks jump: Offshoring and product characteristics

In this paper, we study the role of vertical product differentiation in the decision to allocate production between domestic and foreign plants. To do so, we examine the first wave of light-truck offshoring to Mexico that occurred due to substantially lower post-NAFTA trade barriers and a coincident increase in US demand for light trucks. In contrast to the typical assumption, but similar to many other industries, the need for additional capacity was accommodated by investment in both the US and Mexico for the same models of light trucks. Using a new dataset that details the extent of offshoring and domestic production within models, we document sharp differences in how capacity was utilized. Specifically, within models, we find that automakers offshored varieties which tend to be older in design vintage, lower scale, and less complex to produce. In contrast, we find that varieties “inshored” to newer capacity in the US exhibit the opposite characteristics. This highlights the important role of vertical differentiation and the associated variation in production complexity for the sorting of production across borders. A product with a large degree of vertical differentiation may provide scope for a firm to maximize profits by “inshoring” the more complex varieties while offshoring the less complex versions.     

Trade, wages, and the political economy of trade protection: evidence from the Colombian trade reforms

Worker industry affiliation plays a crucial role in how trade policy affects wages in many trade models. Yet, most research has focused on how trade policy affects wages by altering the economy-wide returns to a specific worker characteristic (i.e., skill or education) rather than through worker industry affiliation. This paper exploits drastic trade liberalizations in Colombia in the 1980s and 1990s to investigate the relationship between protection and industry wage premiums. We relate wage premiums to trade policy in an empirical framework that accounts for the political economy of trade protection. Accounting for time-invariant political economy factors is critical. When we do not control for unobserved time-invariant industry characteristics, we find that workers in protected sectors earn less than workers with similar observable characteristics in unprotected sectors. Allowing for industry fixed effects reverses the result: trade protection increases relative wages. This positive relationship persists when we instrument for tariff changes. Our results are in line with short- and medium-run models of trade where labor is immobile across sectors or, alternatively, with the existence of industry rents that are reduced by trade liberalization. In the context of the current debate on the rising income inequality in developing countries, our findings point to a source of disparity beyond the well-documented rise in the economy-wide skill premium: because tariff reductions were proportionately larger in sectors employing a high fraction of less-skilled workers, the decrease in the wage premiums in these sectors affected such workers disproportionately.     

The determinants of international investment and attention allocation: Using internet search query data

This paper explores the joint determination of home bias and attention allocation. We overcome the typical challenge associated with evaluating attention allocation theories by using a new internet search query dataset to measure how much information investors decide to process. Employing an instrumental variables approach, we find empirical evidence of a two-way causality between home bias and attention. Our estimates suggest that if all countries were to receive the same level of attention as the U.S., then the average home bias by U.S. investors would fall from 85.2% to 57.3%.     

Unionized labor markets and globalized capital markets

This paper studies the effects of international integration of capital markets in a world where countries differ in their labor market institutions: one country has a perfectly competitive labor market while the other is unionized. We show that workers should favor autarky in the unionized country, but oppose it in the non unionized country and vice versa for owners of capital. Aggregate gains from integration, however, are negative. We also show that, under capital mobility, an increase in relative bargaining power of unions does not always improve workers' welfare.     

Trade, turnover, and tithing

This paper examines the hypothesis that turnover affects trade preferences. High turnover industries are similar to the Stolper-Samuelson assumption of perfect factor mobility, so factor of production drives trade preferences. Among low turnover industries, as in the specific factors model, net export position determines trade preferences. We show that PAC contribution patterns are consistent with this hypothesis. In high turnover industries, capital groups give significantly larger shares of their campaign contributions to free trade supporters than labor groups do. Among low turnover industries, on the other hand, exporting and import-competing groups differ significantly in their financial support for free traders.     

World trade patterns and prices: The role of productivity and quality heterogeneity

This paper analyzes the role of product quality and labor efficiency in shaping the trade patterns and trade intensities within and across two groups of countries, the developed and richer North and the developing South. Recent empirical literature identifies two groups of evidence — the product lines evidence on different export strategies and sources of competitiveness across product groups and countries, and the aggregate trade flows evidence on a positive relation between the income per capita and both export and import prices (also conditional on the exporter). We attempt to provide a theoretical background for these findings and focus on the North–South productivity differences in a four country North–South trade model with two dimensions of firm heterogeneity. Differences in the firms' product quality and cost efficiency impose different competitiveness sources when entering more difficult markets and result in the observed export and import prices and consumption bundles across the rich and poor countries.     

Rethinking the area approach: Immigrants and the labor market in California

A framework that uses a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function with skill differentiation and integrated national labor markets has predictions for the employment effect of immigrants at the local level. The employment (rather than wage) response to immigration by skill in a state reveals the production substitutability-complementarity between native and immigrant labor. This, in turn, reveals the degree to which immigrants stimulate or depress the demand for native labor. To estimate this elasticity, I use a novel instrument based on demographic characteristics of total Central American migrants or of the Mexican Population to predict immigration by skill level within California. Looking at immigration to California between 1960 and 2005 these estimates support the assumption of a nationally integrated labor market by skill and they support the hypothesis that natives and immigrants in the same education-experience group are not perfectly substitutable. This explains the counter-intuitive fact that there is a zero correlation between immigration and wage and employment outcomes of natives in the state.     

Terms of trade risk with partial labor mobility

We examine the welfare consequences of terms-of-trade risk in a small open economy in which it is costly for workers to move between sectors. Relocation costs lead to partial labor mobility, sectoral wage gaps and income risk exceeding that of an economy in which relocation is costless. Using observed wage differentials and standard values for volatility and preferences, we find that the welfare cost of partial labor mobility alone is unlikely to be very large, even in the absence of self-insurance arrangements. In addition, modest consumption substitution elasticities significantly reduce these welfare costs.     

Unobservable skill dispersion and comparative advantage

This paper investigates a theoretical mechanism linking comparative advantage to the distribution of skills in the working population. We develop a tractable multi-country, multi-industry model of trade with unobservable skills in the labour market and show that comparative advantage derives from (i) cross-industry differences in the substitutability of workers' skills and (ii) cross-country differences in the dispersion of skills. We establish the conditions under which higher skill dispersion leads to specialization in industries characterized by higher skill substitutability across tasks. The main results are robust when the model is extended to allow for partial observability of skills. Finally, we use distributions of literacy scores from the International Adult Literacy Survey to approximate cross-country productivity differences due to skill dispersion and we carry out a quantitative assessment of the impact of skill dispersion on the pattern of trade.