Unobservable skill dispersion and comparative advantage

This paper investigates a theoretical mechanism linking comparative advantage to the distribution of skills in the working population. We develop a tractable multi-country, multi-industry model of trade with unobservable skills in the labour market and show that comparative advantage derives from (i) cross-industry differences in the substitutability of workers' skills and (ii) cross-country differences in the dispersion of skills. We establish the conditions under which higher skill dispersion leads to specialization in industries characterized by higher skill substitutability across tasks. The main results are robust when the model is extended to allow for partial observability of skills. Finally, we use distributions of literacy scores from the International Adult Literacy Survey to approximate cross-country productivity differences due to skill dispersion and we carry out a quantitative assessment of the impact of skill dispersion on the pattern of trade.     

Unpacking sources of comparative advantage: A quantitative approach

This paper develops an approach for quantifying the importance of different sources of comparative advantage, by extending the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model to predict industry trade flows. In this framework, comparative advantage is determined by the interaction of country and industry characteristics, with countries specializing in industries whose production needs they can best meet with their factor endowments and institutional strengths. I estimate the model parameters using: (i) OLS; and (ii) a simulated method of moments procedure that accounts for the prevalence of zeros in the bilateral trade data. I apply the model to explore various quantitative questions, such as how much distance, Ricardian productivity, factor endowments, and institutions each matter for country welfare in the global trade equilibrium.     

Multiple cones, factor price differences and the factor content of trade

This paper examines the theoretical predictions of the multi-cone Heckscher-Ohlin model and the empirical evidence for it. I extend Helpman (1984)by identifying additional restrictions that characterize the free trade equilibrium. I illustrate that the complete set of restrictions are the building blocks of a multi-cone factor content specification which is the factor content dual to Alan Deardorff's (1979)well-known chain of comparative advantage goods prediction. The theoretical analysis implies that the existing tests of Helpman are incomplete. Applying the complete set of restrictions to Choi and Krishna's data set of 8 OECD countries, I find limited empirical support. This is compatible with previous studies suggesting that OECD countries do not occupy different cones.     

On the origins of comparative advantage

This paper proposes a simple theory of international trade with endogenous productivity differences across countries. The core of our analysis lies in the determinants of the division of labor. We consider a world economy comprising two large countries, with a continuum of goods and one factor of production, labor. Each good is characterized by its complexity, defined as the number of tasks that must be performed to produce one unit. There are increasing returns to scale in the performance of each task, which creates gains from specialization, and uncertainty in the enforcement of each contract, which create transaction costs. The trade-off between these two forces pins down the size of productive teams across sectors in each country. Under free trade, the country where teams are larger specializes in the more complex goods. In our model, it is the country where the product of institutional quality and human per worker capital is larger. Hence, better institutions and more educated workers are complementary sources of comparative advantage in the more complex industries.     

中性还是偏向性技术变迁影响出口?——基于细分行业贸易数据的经验分析

运用Tobit模型对中国SITC-3位码行业出口数据进行实证分析,本文发现,生产率越高的行业出口能力越强,技术变迁带来的效率改进是出口增长的重要原因。但与中性技术变迁相比,偏向性技术变迁更适合解释中国不同行业的相对出口存在差异的问题。劳动和资本密集型行业发生的偏向资本技术变迁,是中国劳动密集型产品出口比重不断减小,而资本密集型产品出口比重不断增加的重要原因。偏向资本的技术变迁,以及由此引起的要素相对生产率改变,与要素相对禀赋一起,预示着我国动态比较优势的逐渐形成。     

Tariff wars in the Ricardian Model with a continuum of goods

This paper describes strategic tariff choices within the Ricardian framework of Dornbusch, Fischer, and Samuelson (1977) using CES preferences. The optimum tariff schedule is uniform across goods and inversely related to the import demand elasticity of the other country. In the Nash equilibrium of tariffs, larger economies apply higher tariff rates. Productivity adjusted relative size (≈ GDP ratio) is a sufficient statistic for absolute productivity advantage and the size of the labor force. Both countries apply higher tariff rates if specialization gains from comparative advantage are high and transportation cost is low. A sufficiently large economy prefers the inefficient Nash equilibrium in tariffs over free trade due to its quasi-monopolistic power on world markets. The required threshold size is increasing in comparative advantage and decreasing in transportation cost. I discuss the implications of the static Nash-equilibrium analysis for the sustainability and structure of trade agreements.     

Unpacking sources of comparative advantage: A quantitative approach

This paper develops an approach for quantifying the importance of different sources of comparative advantage, by extending the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model to predict industry trade flows. In this framework, comparative advantage is determined by the interaction of country and industry characteristics, with countries specializing in industries whose production needs they can best meet with their factor endowments and institutional strengths. I estimate the model parameters using: (i) OLS; and (ii) a simulated method of moments procedure that accounts for the prevalence of zeros in the bilateral trade data. I apply the model to explore various quantitative questions, such as how much distance, Ricardian productivity, factor endowments, and institutions each matter for country welfare in the global trade equilibrium.     

Airplanes and comparative advantage

Airplanes are a fast but expensive means of shipping goods, a fact which has implications for comparative advantage. The paper develops a Ricardian model with a continuum of goods which vary by weight and hence transport cost. Comparative advantage depends on relative air and surface transport costs across countries and goods, as well as stochastic productivity. A key testable implication is that the U.S. should import heavier goods from nearby countries, and lighter goods from faraway counties. This implication is tested using detailed data on U.S. imports from 1990 to 2003. Looking across goods the U.S. imports, nearby exporters have lower market share in goods that the rest of the world ships by air. Looking across exporters for individual goods, distance from the US is associated with much higher import unit values. These effects are large, which establish that the model identifies an important influence on specialization and trade.     

Productivity differences in an interdependent world

This paper studies cross-country differences in productivity from an open economy perspective by using a Helpman-Krugman-Heckscher-Ohlin model that embraces the single-cone model and a one-sector economy with factor deepening as particular cases. To estimate the model, I combine tools from development accounting and the factor content of trade literature. When simultaneously fitting data on income, factor prices and the factor content of trade, I find that the one-sector model is by far better supported by the data than the single-cone model. Rich countries have far higher productivities of human capital than poor ones, while differences in physical capital productivity are not related to income per worker. Finally, I estimate an aggregate elasticity of substitution between human and physical capital that is significantly below one.     

中国制造业贸易竞争力的测度与分析

本文运用贸易竞争力指数对我国36个产业部门在1992-2003年间的出口竞争力进行了实证测度,结果为服装业等13种产业长期稳定地处于比较优势,化学纤维制造业等9种产业长期处于比较劣势,非金属矿采选业等7种产业的比较优势处于递减的态势,电子及通讯设备制造业等7种产业的比较优势处于递增的态势。同时对四大要素密集型产业的贸易竞争力也进行了相应地测度。文章对实证结果作了分析,并提出了进一步提升我国产业贸易竞争力的对策。     

企业异质性、技术变迁与动态比较优势

运用中性技术和偏向性技术对比较优势进行理论拓展,异质性企业理论扩大了H-O模型的比较优势。与中性技术相比,偏向性技术具有扩大或缩小出口的作用;偏向于丰裕要素的技术进步有助于扩大出口;而偏向稀缺要素的技术进步不利于出口扩张。要素禀赋、企业异质性和偏向性技术进步使得一国出口产品具有锁定在密集使用丰裕要素的固化特征,难以实现比较优势的动态升级。这一结论不仅可以解释中国多年来未能实现出口产品的动态比较优势问题,也为进一步的经验验证提供理论支持。     

Firm-level comparative advantage

We study the consequences of heterogeneity in factor intensity on firm performance. We present a standard Heckscher–Ohlin model augmented with factor intensity differences across firms within a country–industry pair. We show that for any two firms, each of whose capital intensity is, for instance, one percent above (below) its respective country–industry average, the relative marginal cost of the firm in the capital-intensive industry of the capital-abundant country is lower (higher) than that of the other firm. Our empirical analysis, conducted using data for a large panel of European firms, supports this prediction. These results provide a novel approach to the verification of the Heckscher–Ohlin theory and new evidence on its validity.     

Factors influencing United States comparative advantage

One of the more famous results in international trade is Leontief's demonstration that the conventional wisdom of trade theory—the two-factor Heckscher-Ohlin model, coupled with the empirical judgement that the U.S. is capital-rich—does not appear to provide an explanation of the composition of U.S. trade. A major conclusion of many recent studies is that an adequate model of comparative advantage will be, of necessity, a multi-factor one. This paper examines the implications of a modified multi-factor-proportions model by measuring the simultaneous impact of a variety of factor intensities on the comparative advantage of all U.S. (trading) industries, classified and disaggregated by the 1958 input-output table. The novelty of the study lies in using a binary measure of comparative advantage. In order to by-pass several econometric difficulties, logit analysis is used to estimate the model. The principal conclusion of the paper is that capital-intensity has a significantly positive impact on the comparative advantage of U.S. manufacturing industries and, therefore, that the U.S. is, in fact, relatively capital-rich.     

Moving up or moving out? A unified theory of R&D, FDI, and trade

This paper introduces industrial heterogeneity in R&D productivity into the quality-ladder model of the North-South trade to study how firms' choices made between R&D and foreign direct investment (FDI) vary across industries, and how such choices consequently determine the evolution of comparative advantage and trade. It shows that trade reveals product-cycle dynamics in medium-tech industries but remains static in others. High-tech industries experience continued innovation in the North with no migration of product lines. Medium- and low-tech industries migrate South via FDI to exploit low production costs with the South then replacing the North as the dominant exporter. However, medium-tech industry production eventually shifts back to the North when superior products are marketed by Northern innovators, making the end of one complete product cycle and the start of the next. Because of marginal R&D productivity, the relocated low-tech industries are not presented with the option of moving up and thus stagnate.     

International differences in production techniques: Implications for the factor content of trade

This paper examines how production techniques differ across countries, factors, and industries and considers its implications for previous empirical evidence on the Vanek prediction. I find that production techniques differ substantially across countries and factors, but differ much less across industries within a country. Davis and Weinstein (2001) argue that modeling cross-industry differences (multiple-cone specialization) improves the fit of the Vanek prediction; however, their test statistics are unchanged when one restricts techniques to be identical across industries within a country. Thus, the bulk of world factor content of trade does not arise from specialization.     

FACTOR REALLOCATION COSTS AND TESTS OF THE HECKSCHER-OHLIN TRADE THEORY

The Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) theory of international trade, a basic long-run microeconomic model in which adaptation occurs through the costless reallocation of factors between industries, performs poorly. Most attempts to improve the fit of the model have introduced productivity variations across countries. This article considers another source of error: the assumption of perfect factor mobility. Factors are neither perfectly mobile between industries, but neither are they perfectly industry-specific. Factors can be reallocated between industries, but at a cost. In previous work a measure of adjustment costs due to factor specificity were estimated in a two-period model of a firm's input allocation decision. These estimates are used in this article to test international trade models. Two contributions are made. First, factor reallocation costs explain 2–3% of the “missing trade” noted by Trefler. Second, the estimated country productivity differences vary considerably from the actual differences measured in this paper. In contrast to Trefler's finding that inclusion of estimated productivity differences improved the fit of HOS, when measured productivity differences are used in this paper, HOS performs almost as poorly as in its original specification. My findings highlight the inappropriateness of using HOS as a short-run explanation of trade.     

Information, incentives and multinational firms

I present a model that explains a multinational firm's choice of organizational form. If a firm in the developed country outsources the production of its intermediate goods to a supplier in the developing country, it faces an adverse selection problem. If it chooses to produce the intermediate goods in its own subsidiary in the developing country, it faces an inefficient monitoring problem. My analysis of this tradeoff provides a new explanation for the observation that FDI is concentrated in capital intensive industries and yields two empirical hypotheses: more firms should adopt outsourcing instead of FDI after trade liberalization; the share of intra-firm trade in total trade should be increasing in the degree of productivity dispersion across intermediate goods suppliers in the developing country.     

Intraindustry trade and the skill premium: Theory and evidence

We explore theoretically and empirically the relationship between intraindustry trade and the skill premium. Our model features a Chamberlinian-type mechanism of income distribution based on quasi-homothetic consumer preferences, non-homothetic production, and factor-biased scale economies at the firm level. The analysis focuses on a two-country, one-sector model of intraindustry trade with two factor inputs consisting of high-skilled and low-skilled labor. We find that a move from autarky to free trade (a) raises the output of the representative firm and its level of total factor productivity, and (b) reduces (raises) the relative wage of high-skilled workers under the hypothesis of output-skill substitutability (output-skill complementarity). Plant-level evidence from Mexico supports the empirical relevance of the proposed income-distribution mechanism.     

比较优势与竞争优势是对立的吗?——基于中国制造业的实证研究

本文对中国比较优势与竞争优势的变化趋势及相互关系进行了实证研究,研究结果表明,产业的比较优势与竞争优势并不是一对矛盾的概念。在经济全球化的背景下,一国产业比较优势取决于一国的要素禀赋;从实际数据可看出,虽然中国劳动密集型产业的比较优势在下降,但目前中国最具比较优势的仍旧是劳动密集型产业;从数据也可看出,中国比较优势最强的产业也是中国最具竞争优势的产业,中国产业竞争优势变化也与比较优势的变化高度相关。     

国际产业资本转移的基础、规律及趋势

产业资本的跨国流动和转移是国际经济分工中的常见现象,产业资本跨国转移的目的是在世界范围内整合利用其它国家的优势生产要素,其转移的载体是跨国公司,其转移的理论基础是比较优势原理。国际产业资本转移一般经历三个阶段,在不同阶段所转移的产业也不相同。在国际产业分工更加深化的条件下,国际产业资本将向具有制造业比较优势的国家和地区集聚。