The exchange rate,employment and hours: What firm-level data say

Using a representative panel of manufacturing firms, we estimate the response of job and hours worked to currency swings, showing that it depends primarily on firms' exposure to foreign sales and their reliance on imported inputs. We also show that, for a given international exposure, the response to exchange rate fluctuations is magnified when firms exhibit a lower monopoly power and when they face foreign pressure in the domestic market through import penetration. The degree of substitutability between imported and other inputs and the distribution of workers by type introduce additional degrees of specificity in the employment sensitivity to exchange rate swings. Moreover, we show that episodes of entry and exit in the export market are associated with a heterogeneous employment response depending on the degree of external orientation when the switch of export status occurs.     

Exchange Rate,External Orientation of Firms and Wage Adjustment

We estimate the effect of exchange rate movements on firm‐level wages, using a representative panel of Italian manufacturing firms. We show that the direction and size of wage adjustment is shaped by the international exposure of each firm on both the sale and cost side of the balance sheet, similar to the response of employment documented in (Nucci and Pozzolo, Journal of International Economics 2010; 82 : 112.). Through the revenue side, wages tend to rise after a currency depreciation and the effect is more pronounced the higher is the firm's exposure to sales from exports. Through the expenditure side, a depreciation induces a cut in the firm's wages, and the effect is larger the higher is the incidence of imported inputs in total production costs. For a given degree of external orientation, both these effects are larger for firms with a lower market power. Moreover, we document that the effect of exchange rates on wages is shaped by the extent of sectoral import penetration in the domestic market.     

Twin dollarization and exchange rate policy

This paper develops a small open economy general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities to study twin dollarization in East Asian economies, a phenomenon where firms borrow in US dollars and also set export prices in US dollars. In this model, we endogenize both the currency of liability denomination and the currency of export pricing. We show that a key factor that affects firms' dollarization decisions is exchange rate policy. Twin dollarization is an optimal strategy for all firms when exchange rate flexibility is limited, which implies that a fixed exchange rate regime may lead to an equilibrium with twin dollarization. Furthermore, we find that twin dollarization can reduce the welfare loss caused by the fixed exchange rate regime, as it helps to cushion the economy against domestic nominal risk.     

Exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange exposure: The case of emerging market firms

We investigate the influence of exchange rate regimes on the foreign exchange exposure of emerging market firms. Using a sample of 1523 firms from 20 countries for the period December 1999 to December 2010, we find that about half of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange rate fluctuations. We find that non-floating exchange rate arrangements are associated with more widespread exposure as well as a greater magnitude of firms' exposure. Cross-sectional analyses suggest that the exchange rate regime is an important determinant of firm-level exchange rate exposure for emerging market firms, and that pegged exchange rate regimes amplify exposure. This result holds after controlling for a wide range of potential determinants of firm-level and country-level foreign exchange exposure. Our findings suggest that exchange rate regime matters at the micro as well as the macro level; non-floating regimes fail to protect firms from exchange rate exposure.     

Manufacturing restructuring and the role of real exchange rate shocks

Using a new and extensive micro data set we investigate the impact of a change in international competitive pressure on industrial performance and restructuring. Unlike previous studies we are able to account for the heterogeneity across firms in their exposure to foreign competition. We focus on a situation akin to a natural experiment, and examine the impact of a sharp real appreciation of the Norwegian Krone in the early 2000s on Norwegian manufacturing firms which differ substantially in their trade orientation. A change in the real exchange rate (RER) affects a firm through three different channels: (i) firm's export sales, (ii) firm's purchases of imported inputs, and (iii) import competition faced in the domestic market. Unlike previous studies, we are able to examine all three channels. Both net exporters and import-competing firms were exposed to increased competition due to the real appreciation. Both groups reacted by shedding labor, but only the first group experienced increasing labor productivity. Partly, the productivity improvements came from measured TFP gains, while capital deepening does not appear to have been affected by the shock.     

Exchange rate exposure

In this paper we examine the relationship between exchange rate movements and firm value. We estimate the exchange rate exposure of publicly listed firms in a sample of eight (non-US) industrialized and emerging markets. We find that exchange rate movements do matter for a significant fraction of firms, though which firms are affected and the direction of exposure depends on the specific exchange rate and varies over time, suggesting that firms dynamically adjust their behavior in response to exchange rate risk. Exposure is correlated with firm size, multinational status, foreign sales, international assets, and competitiveness and trade at the industry level.     

Exports versus multinational production under nominal uncertainty

This paper examines how nominal uncertainty affects the choice that firms face to serve a foreign market through exports or to produce abroad as a multinational. I develop a two-country, stochastic general equilibrium model in which firms make production and pricing decisions in advance, and I consider its implications for the relative attractiveness of exporting and multinational production. I find that when multinational sales are priced in the local currency while exports are priced in the producer currency, destination volatility benefits exporters: during a foreign nominal contraction, the foreign exchange rate appreciates, causing exports to be relatively cheaper. Exporters gain non-linearly through demand, making profit convex in prices. As foreign volatility rises, the model implies that the home country should serve the foreign country relatively more through exports. I take this implication to bilateral U.S. data, using inflation volatility as a proxy for nominal volatility. Using sectoral data on sales by majority-owned foreign affiliates matched with U.S. exports, I find that higher inflation volatility is associated with a significantly lower ratio of multinational sales to total foreign sales.     

Wage bargaining and multinational firms

We set up a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms to study the interaction between wage bargaining and foreign direct investment. Thereby, we highlight the incentives of firms to invest abroad in order to improve their bargaining position vis-á-vis local unions and we show how changes in the bargaining power of unions affect the share of multinational firms in an open economy. In addition, taking into account this relationship between wage bargaining and foreign direct investment, our analysis provides novel insights on how labor income and the unemployment rate adjust to economic integration and how changes in the bargaining power of unions affect these two labor market variables.     

Home Firm Performance After Foreign Investments and Divestitures

An almost undisputed aim for firms in today's globalised world is to operate internationally. Several papers find a positive relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and the domestic performance of firms. In this paper, we address the ‘FDI – export’ relationship to better understand this trend. Furthermore, by presenting results on firm's post‐divestiture employment growth at home, we are able to provide a more comprehensive view on firm performance after stepping in and out of foreign markets. We apply a propensity score matching technique in combination with a difference‐in‐difference estimator to analyse the performance dynamics of French firms that either invested abroad or carried out foreign divestitures during the period 2000–2007. FDI has, on average, a positive effect in terms of export share, operating turnover and employment in firm's domestic market. Industry differences reveal that firms in high‐tech industries experience a strong increase in their domestic performance, whereas firm performance in low‐tech industries increases only moderately in post‐investment periods. In contrast, the divestiture impact on the post‐divestiture performance is rather negligible.     

The spatial selection of heterogeneous firms

We show that heterogeneous firms choose different locations in response to market integration. Specifically, decreasing trade costs lead to the gradual agglomeration of efficient firms in the larger country where they have access to a bigger pool of consumers. In contrast, high-cost firms seek protection against competition from efficient firms by locating in the smaller country. However, when the spatial separation of markets ceases to be a sufficient protection against foreign competition, high-cost firms choose to set up in the larger market. Hence, the relationship between economic integration and international productivity gap first increases and then decreases with market integration.     

Market access,supplier access,and Africa's manufactured exports: A firm level analysis

Abstract

In a large cross-country sample of manufacturing establishments drawn from 188 cities, average exports per establishments are smaller for African firms than for businesses in other regions. Based on the estimation of firm level exporting equations, we show that this is mainly because, on average, African firms face more adverse economic geography and operate in poorer institutional settings. One part of the effect of geography operates through Africa's lower ‘foreign market access’: African firms are located further away from wealthier or denser potential export markets. A second occurs through the region's lower ‘supplier access’: African firms face steeper input prices, partly because of their physical distance from cheaper foreign suppliers, and partly because domestic substitutes for importable inputs are more expensive. Africa's poorer institutions reduce its manufactured exports directly, as well as indirectly, by lowering foreign market access and supplier access. Both geography and institutions influence average firm level exports significantly more through their effect on the number of exporters than through their impact on how much each exporter sells onto foreign markets.     

Understanding Brazilian companies' foreign exchange exposure

The paper analyzes the exchange rate exposure of a sample of non-financial Brazilian companies from 1999 to 2009. The results confirm the importance of using nonlinear models to address companies' exchange rate exposure. The results indicate that when compared to the linear model commonly used in literature, the nonlinear model leads to an increase in the number of firms exposed to exchange rate fluctuations, which allows a more accurate analysis of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the value of firms. In addition, the paper shows that exporters and companies that hold foreign currency denominated debt are more likely to be exposed to exchange rate fluctuations and that the nonlinearity of companies' foreign exchange exposure is associated with the use of foreign currency derivatives.     

人民币实际汇率调整对中国制造业就业影响——来自1998~2007年细分行业数据的证据

本文首次利用498个4位代码的细分行业数据研究汇率调整对中国制造业就业的影响。在扩展汇率调整对就业市场影响理论分析框架的基础上,本文探讨了人民币实际汇率调整从要素密集度对中国城市制造业就业市场的传导渠道及其影响因素;并通过1998~2007年工业企业数据以及海关贸易数据构建人民币在行业层面的实际有效汇率指数,发现人民币实际汇率调整会对中国城市行业就业市场产生显著且重要的影响。研究表明:初级产品和劳动资本密集型行业的实际汇率调整对就业影响估计的显著性明显高于技术密集型行业,3类行业的就业弹性分别为0.423、0.327、0.309;相对私营行业而言,外商投资行业的净就业水平对于实际汇率调整更为敏感。     

Does US quantitative easing affect exchange rate pass‐through in China?

In this paper, we show theoretically and empirically that the US quantitative easing (QE ) policy results in lower exchange rate pass‐through into the destination prices of Chinese exporters. In addition, the more the exchange rate in the export destination appreciates than the Chinese yuan, the stronger this effect becomes. Our model combines various marginal effects of QE policy on the destinations of Chinese exporters and variable markups of export firms due to strategic complementarities. The model predicts that the impact of US QE policy on the pass‐through of Chinese exporters depends on its spillover on the exchange rate between China and the export destination of different firms. We provide strong support for the model predictions using Chinese firm‐product‐level data with information on export destinations. The baseline result and the heterogeneity we find in the response of exchange rate pass‐through of Chinese exporters to US QE policy remain robust to alternative measures of samples and controls.     

Exchange rate exposure: A nonparametric approach

The typical conclusion reached when researchers examine exchange rate exposure is that only a few firms are exposed. This finding is puzzling since institutional knowledge and theory suggests a larger effect. In this paper, we compare results obtained using a linear approach with those from nonlinear and nonparametric models. Among firms that don't have a linear exposure, we find that a considerable proportion of these are exposed when nonlinear or nonparametric models are used. This exposure is most striking when a nonparametric model is used. We also find that firms' hedging activities decrease linear exposure but don't affect nonparametric exposure.     

State‐owned Enterprises,Exporting and Productivity in China: A Stochastic Dominance Approach

A popular explanation for China's rapid economic growth in recent years has been the dramatic increase in the number of private domestic‐ and foreign‐owned firms and a decline in the state‐owned sector. However, recent evidence suggests that China's state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) are in fact stronger than ever. In this paper, we examine over 78,000 manufacturing firms between 2002 and 2006 to investigate the relationship between ownership structure and the degree of firm‐level exposure to export markets and firm‐level productivity. Using a conditional stochastic dominance approach, we reveal that although our results largely adhere to prior expectations, the performance of SOEs differs markedly between those that export and those that supply the domestic market only. It appears that China's internationally focused SOEs have become formidable global competitors.     

An empirical investigation of the antecedents and performance outcomes of export innovativeness

The present study develops and empirically tests a conceptual model of the organizational, strategic, and environmental drivers of export innovativeness. The relationship between export innovativeness and export performance is also examined. Using data collected from 168 small- and medium-sized direct exporters, we find that decentralization in decision making, export market orientation, information exchange and export market dynamism have a significant influence on exporting firms’ degree of innovativeness. Furthermore, export innovativeness has a significant positive effect on export performance. Several theoretical and managerial implications are derived from these findings. Directions for future research are also provided.     

A theory of the currency denomination of international trade

The currency denomination of international trade has significant macroeconomic and policy implications. In this paper we solve for the optimal invoicing choice by integrating this microeconomic decision at the level of the firm into a general equilibrium open economy model. Strategic interactions between firms play a critical role. We find that the less competition firms face in foreign markets, as reflected in market share and product differentiation, the more likely they will price in their own currency. We also show that when a set of countries forms a monetary union, the new currency is likely to be used more extensively in trade than the sum of the currencies it replaces.     

Collusion with Fluctuating Exchange Rates: A Note

A fluctuating exchange rate has an impact on how firms value a given stream of profits, thereby affecting the ability of an international oligopoly to collude implicitly. The conversion effect arises because the foreign firm maximizes its profits earned on the home market measured in foreign currency. The discount factor effect captures the fact that exchange rate fluctuations are connected with fluctuations in the interest rates, thereby changing the present value of future profits. Although each effect refers to only one of the firms, considered together they have an identical impact on the home and the foreign firm. If the foreign country is small, the conversion effect and the discount factor effect exactly offset each other. Otherwise, the effects analysed make collusion more difficult to sustain.     

Credit constraints and firm export: Microeconomic evidence from Italy

This paper estimates the impact of credit rationing on firms' export. We use detailed survey data from Italian manufacturing firms that provide a firm-specific measure of credit rationing based directly on firms' responses to the survey rather than indirectly on firms' financial statements. After controlling for productivity and other relevant firm attributes, and accounting for the endogeneity of credit rationing, we find that the probability of exporting is 39% lower for rationed firms and that rationing reduces foreign sales by more than 38%. While credit rationing also appears to depress domestic sales, its impact on foreign sales is significantly stronger. The analysis also suggests that credit rationing is an obstacle to export especially for firms operating in high-tech industries and in industries that heavily rely on external finance.