When in peril, retrench: Testing the portfolio channel of contagion

The impact of past gains and losses on international investors' risk aversion is an important factor in the propagation of financial shocks across countries. We first present a stylized model illustrating how changes in investors' risk aversion affect portfolio decisions and stock prices. We then examine empirically the behavior of international mutual funds. When funds' returns are below average, they reduce their exposure to countries in which they were overweight and vice versa. An index of “financial interdependence” that reflects the extent to which countries share overexposed funds helps explain the pattern of stock market comovement across countries and the pattern of contagion during crises.     

The composition of international capital flows: risk sharing through foreign direct investment

Evidence on international capital flows suggests that foreign direct investment (FDI) is less volatile than other financial flows. To explain this finding I model international capital flows under the assumptions of imperfect enforcement of financial contracts and inalienability of FDI. Imperfect enforcement of contracts leads to endogenous financing constraints and the pricing of default risk. Inalienability implies that it is not as advantageous to expropriate FDI relative to other flows. These features combine to give a risk sharing advantage to FDI over other capital flows. This risk sharing advantage of FDI translates into a lower default premium and lower sensitivity to changes in a country’s financing constraint.The model offers the new implication that financially constrained countries should borrow relatively more through FDI. This is because FDI is harder to expropriate and not because FDI is more productive or less volatile. Using several creditworthiness and country risk ratings to measure financing constraints, I present new evidence linking FDI and financing constraints. Moreover, numerical simulations of the model generate stronger serial correlation for FDI than for other flows into developing countries. This corroborates the view that non-FDI flows are more short-term and more likely to change direction.     

Comparative Advantage and the Gains from Financial Trade: A Reappraisal

Emerging market crises have suggested that a national benefit‐cost assessment of external financial liberalisation could well prove unfavourable. This paper re‐examines the principle of comparative advantage in its application to financial trade to seek guidance on measures that might permit a fuller realisation of the potential benefits involved. Drawing a parallel with Balasubramanyam's work on the gains from FDI and international migration we distinguish between those arising in financial trade from the net transfer of capital, and those deriving from the contemporaneous exchange of financial claims or services of equivalent value. In the first interpretation a country's comparative advantage is manifested by its role in ‘intertemporal’ trade (as a borrower or lender). Our alternative emphasis is on the contractual risk‐return characteristics of the financial claims exchanged. This perspective is applied firstly to portfolio diversification gains arising from further international stock market integration. Secondly, price risk management for developing countries in international primary commodity trade is discussed. Both applications imply the need for significant institutional development but could realise approximately contemporaneous gains reminiscent both of those involved in merchandise trade and in the skills and product (or service) flows that Balasubramanyam has emphasised in relation to FDI and international migration.     

International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics

Despite the liberalization of capital flows among OECD countries, equity home bias remains sizable. We depart from the two familiar explanations of equity home bias: transaction costs that impede international diversification, and terms of trade responses to supply shocks that provide risk sharing, so that there is little incentive to hold diversified portfolios. We show that the interaction of the following ingredients generates a realistic equity home bias: capital accumulation and international trade in stocks and bonds. In our model, domestic stocks are used to hedge fluctuations in local wage income. Terms of trade risk is hedged using bonds denominated in local goods and in foreign goods. In contrast to related models, the low level of international diversification does not depend on strongly countercyclical terms of trade. The model also reproduces the cyclical dynamics of foreign asset positions and of international capital flows.     

Growing up with capital flows

We examine the capital flows-domestic investment relationship for 60 developing countries from 1979 to 1999. In the 1990s, even as liberalization attracted new flows, foreign capital stimulated less domestic investment than in the preceding decade. With greater financial integration, governments accumulated more international reserves and domestic residents diversified by investing abroad. Foreign investors were also motivated by diversification objectives rather than by unmet investment needs. Inflows were channeled increasingly through portfolio flows—or through foreign direct investment (FDI) with the characteristics of portfolio capital—resulting in weak investment stimulus. However, stronger policy environments strengthened the link between inflows and investment.     

Does foreign aid mitigate the adverse effect of expropriation risk on foreign direct investment?

We construct a model of FDI, risk and aid, where a country loses access to FDI and aid if the country expropriates FDI. We show that: (i) the threat of expropriation leads to under-investment; (ii) the optimal level of FDI decreases as the risk of expropriation rises; and (iii) aid mitigates the adverse effect of expropriation risk on FDI. The empirical analysis employs data for 35 low-income countries and 28 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, over the period 1983-2004. We find that risk has a negative effect on FDI and that aid mitigates but cannot eliminate the adverse effect of risk.     

The Role of Geography in Financial and Economic Integration: A Comparative Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment,Trade and Portfolio Investment Flows

The objective of this paper is to examine the role of geography in explaining the patterns of financial and economic integration among both developed and developing countries. Using a gravity model, we compare North‐North, North‐South and South‐North FDI, trade and portfolio investment flows to examine how geographical factors influence these bilateral flows. The results indicate that the impact of geography variables on FDI and portfolio are similar to their effect on trade. Geography variables have a statistically significant effect both on FDI and portfolio investment, but FDI is more sensitive to distance. We interpret the negative effect of distance as the existence of information costs in financial flows. Also bilateral FDI, trade and portfolio investment flows react to macroeconomic fundamentals in the same way, however, with different degrees of sensitivity. There are significant differences between North‐North and North‐South flows. Our results find support for the argument that most FDI among industrial countries are horizontal, whereas most FDI investment in developing countries is vertical. The fact that the significance of geographical variables on financial flows still remained even after controlling for the macroeconomic fundamentals, is in contrast with the standard capital market model. The results can, however, be reconciled if geographical factors can proxy for information costs, which may in turn explain why country portfolios are still home‐biased. The significant effect of distance on financial flows may also explain how idiosyn cratic shocks are spread (i.e. contagion) to other countries in the same region. Ultimately, the geographical location of a country may determine its economic and financial integration into the world economy.     

Financial Development and Economic Growth in Africa

We revisit in this paper the debate between financial development and economic growth. In contrast to previous studies examining banking related measures, we focus on the capital account and the depth of African stock markets. We examine 15 African countries from 1995 to 2010 and employ both static and dynamic panel data methods. While the former suggest weak results overall, portfolio flows and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) have consistently positive effects on economic growth under endogenous stock market capitalization. These findings reinforce the view that African countries should open their equity markets to international investors and encourage FDI.     

Financial integration and international risk sharing

Conventional wisdom suggests that financial liberalization can help countries insure against idiosyncratic risk. There is little evidence, however, that countries have increased risk sharing despite widespread financial liberalization. We show that the key to understanding this puzzling observation is that conventional wisdom assumes frictionless international financial markets, while actual markets are far from frictionless: financial contracts are incomplete and contract enforceability is limited. When countries remove official capital controls, default risk is still present as an implicit barrier to capital flows. If default risk were eliminated, capital flows would be six times greater, and international risk sharing would increase substantially.     

Finance-specific factors as drivers of cross-border investment—An empirical investigation

In this paper we empirically test the role of firm-specific financial characteristics as drivers of international investment and production. We hypothesize that financial strength generates advantages that can be exploited through cross-border investment activity. The hypothesis is tested in a series of binary-response models, using a sample of 1379 European non-financial firms’ international acquisitions. Controlling for traditional firm- and target-country-specific foreign direct investment (FDI) determinants, we find strong evidence that financial factors play a significant role in explaining cross-border investment. We conclude that without explicit consideration of the financial dimension, firms’ FDI decisions cannot be properly understood.     

Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade

Empirically, demand and market size effects play an important role for international trade in assets and the determination of asset prices. Financial integration decreases the cost of capital, asset prices increase with investors base and market size determines international financial flows. We present a two-country model with an endogenous number of financial assets, where the interaction of a risk diversification motive and market segmentation explains those facts. In our set up, an imperfectly competitive structure of financial markets emerges naturally and provides a new source for home bias in equity holdings. Due to co-ordination failures, the extent of financial market incompleteness is inefficiently high in equilibrium.     

International capital flows,returns and world financial integration

International capital flows have increased dramatically since the 1980s, with much of the increase being due to trade in equity and bond markets. Such developments are often attributed to the increased integration of world financial markets. We present a model that allows us to examine how greater integration in world financial markets affects the behavior of international capital flows and financial returns. Our model predicts that international capital flows are large (in absolute value) and very volatile during the early stages of financial integration when international asset trading is concentrated in bonds. As integration progresses and households gain access to world equity markets, the size and volatility of international bond flows decline. This is the natural outcome of greater risk sharing facilitated by increased integration. This pattern is consistent with declining volatility observed during 1975–2007 period in the G-7 countries. We also find that the equilibrium flows in bonds and stocks predicted by the model are larger than their empirical counterparts, and are largely driven by variations in equity risk premia. The model also predicts that volatility of equity and bond returns decline with integration, again consistent with the data for G-7 economies.     

Religion and foreign direct investment

This study examines the effect of religion on foreign direct investment (FDI). Using a large sample of directional FDI flows and religious data between 1985 and 2019, we calculate the religious distance between home and host countries and find that FDI flows are smaller for country pairs with greater religious distance. This finding remains intact after a host of variables affecting FDI are controlled. Moreover, the negative effect of religious differences is less pronounced if the host country has higher religious diversity or both countries have a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) in force. Finally, we construct a country-level measure for religiosity and find an asymmetric effect of religiosity on FDI flows. Overall, our study suggests that both religious differences and the level of religiosity play important roles in explaining international FDI flows. (JEL F21, F41, Z12)     

Reverse importing and asymmetric trade and FDI: a networks explanation

This paper considers the impact of business and social networks on international trade and FDI. I propose that differences in the strength of network effects across countries can produce asymmetric trade and investment flows that may lead to trade friction. A firm from a country with strong network effects has a cost advantage in selling to buyers from its own country. This advantage results in lower inward FDI, lower total imports but larger volumes of reverse imports into the country with strong network effects. The model’s predictions match observed asymmetric trade and investment flows that sometimes lead to US-Japan trade friction.     

Rhetorics of saving–investment correlations and the international mobility of capital: A survey

This study surveys the literature on saving–investment (SI) correlations and international mobility of capital (IMC) generated over more than three decades since the 1980s. Several studies have shown the presence of paradoxically high SI correlations for the developed countries with observed high IMC, and low SI correlations for the developing countries with observed low IMC. The studies accounting for structural breaks in model parameters provide dominant support for the decrease in SI correlations and increase in IMC after the switch from fixed to flexible exchange rate regime and the removal of policy restrictions on capital flows. The intertemporal optimisation approach to current account and the open-economy growth and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models mainly provide theoretical predictions and suggest that it is possible to find high SI correlations in the wake of high IMC. The increases in international capital flows have been the natural corollary of the growth of international trade in goods and services and increases in foreign direct investment flows. It is these factors, rather than international trade in capital market securities (bonds and equities) driven by the diversification benefits of financial portfolios per se, that have been the key levers of international financial flows.     

The determinants of cross-border equity flows

We explore a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross-border equity flows between 14 countries, 1989-1996. We show that a “gravity” model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions. Gross transaction flows depend on market size in source and destination country as well as trading costs, in which both information and the transaction technology play a role. Distance proxies some information costs, and other variables explicitly represent information transmission, an information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors, and the efficiency of transactions. The geography of information is the main determinant of the pattern of international transactions, while there is weak support in our data for the diversification motive, once we control for the informational friction. We broaden the scope of our results by presenting some evidence linking the results on equity transactions to equity holdings.     

FDI inflow as an international business operation by MNCs and economic growth: An empirical study on Turkey

The issue of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been affecting the world economy for years and is a considerable subject for both developed and developing countries. FDI is the fixed form of international business operation made across the national borders made mostly by the multi national corporations (MNCs). The positive impact of FDI inflow in a host country is expected to emerge as capital accumulation, technology transfer, know-how acquisition, innovative capacity and economic growth eventually. In this study, it is aimed to address the FDI literature depending on comprehensive international publications and then to analyze the FDI inflow and GDP growth in Turkey with econometric methods.The relation between FDI inflow and GDP growth is analyzed by using the Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality analysis. Afterwards, a regression equation is estimated by using the ordinary least squares method (OLS). Prior to applying the Cointegration test, the stationarity and integration degrees of the series are determined by the augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF). Consequently, resting on the results of entire analysis, it is possible to mention that no significant relation is determined between the FDI inflow and GDP growth in Turkey both in the short and long run.     

Demography and low-frequency capital flows

We consider the role of demographic trends in driving international capital flows in a multicountry overlapping generations model in which saving decisions are tied to agents' life expectancy. Capital flows reflect differences between saving and investment across countries. Demographic changes affect the aggregate accumulation of assets in two ways: by changing life expectancy which changes individual household saving behavior, and by changing the age distribution of the population by which individual household decisions are aggregated. We use a quantitative version of the model to illustrate the impact of demography on capital flows and net foreign assets in China, Germany, Japan, and the United States.     

North‐South foreign direct investment and bilateral investment treaties

Bilateral investment treaties (BIT s) have become increasingly popular as a means of encouraging foreign direct investment (FDI ) from developed to developing countries. We adopt a difference‐in‐difference analysis to deal with the problem of self‐selection when estimating the effects of BIT s on FDI flows from a sample of OECD countries to a broader sample of lesser developed countries. Our results indicate that forming a BIT with a developed country significantly increases FDI inflows to developing countries. We further find that the development of new FDI flows and the reinvigoration of deteriorating FDI relationships accounts for the majority of the increase in FDI flows due to BIT formation.     

Emerging economies' attraction of foreign direct investment

This paper uses a composite measure to examine why some countries attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) than others. The measure considers all identified, measurable, and comparable socioeconomic aspects that affect FDI decisions on an aggregated country level. As a result, we can rank 127 countries with respect to their FDI attraction. The measure allows detailed strength and weakness analyses and enhances the discussion of why FDI flows are concentrated in advanced economies. Additionally, the findings reveal the areas in which emerging countries should improve in order to narrow existing gaps. Our robustness checks indicate that the composite measure accurately tracks real FDI activity.