经典波动模型下的最优债券投资组合

文章认为,由于利率和股价兼有相同的趋势性和波动性属性,股价经典波动模型对利率建模具有研究价值。通过引入经典的波动模型,结合极大似然估计的方法,本文探讨了无风险债券的最优投资方案,并将该成果运用于全球主要国债市场进行实证模拟投资,结果表明,该模型在全球主要国债市场均能取得较好的超额收益。     

中国利率市场的价格发现——对国债现货、期货以及利率互换市场的研究

本文采用信息份额模型和基于向量自回归(VAR)模型的格兰杰因果检验,研究了国债现货、国债期货和利率互换三个市场之间的价格发现机制。信息份额模型表明,从整体来看利率互换相对于国债期货和国债现货都具有信息优势,而国债期货相对于国债现货具有信息优势。另外,国债期货的价格发现能力相对于另外两个市场都在随时间增强。格兰杰因果检验结果显示,利率互换在价格发现中单向引领国债期货以及国债现货,国债期货单向引领国债现货。所有结果一致表明, 利率互换和国债期货这两种利率衍生产品在引导中国利率市场价格发现中发挥了重要作用。     

我国国债期货核心功能分析——基于高频数据的实证检验

随着我国利率市场化改革进程的不断深入,如何规避国债现货的利率风险成为当前急需解决的问题,通过国债期货上市后的高频数据对国债期货的核心功能进行实证检验将解决这个问题:首先,通过ADF检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,验证了国债期货对国债现货具有价格发现功能;然后,通过VAR模型和ADL模型验证了国债期货对国债现货的套期保值功能;最后,基于核心功能研究提出了最优套期保值率,用于实现对国债现货最优的风险转移,这将对现实中套期保值交易具有指导性意义。     

我国国债期货核心功能分析——基于高频数据的实证检验

随着我国利率市场化改革进程的不断深入,如何规避国绩现货的利率风险成为当前急需解决的问题,通过国债期货上市后的高频数据对国债期货的核心功能进行实证检验将解决这个问题:首先,通过ADF检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,验证了国债期货对国债现货具有价格发现功能;然后,通过VAR模型和ADL模型验证了国债期货对国债现货的套期保值功能;最后,基于核心功能研究提出了最优套期保值率,用于实现对国债现货最优的风险转移,这将对现实中套期保值交易具有指导性意义.     

中国通货膨胀预期及其影响因素分析——基于混频无套利Nelson-Siegel利率期限结构扩展模型

综合国债市场的利率期限结构信息以及不同频率的宏观信息,本文构建混频无套利Nelson-Siegel利率期限结构扩展模型,在对不同期限债券进行一致性定价理论约束下,提取了中国通货膨胀预期的期限结构并对其进行影响因素分析。研究结果表明,本文模型提取的通胀预期期限丰富、结果稳健,具有较好的参考价值。通胀预期水平和变动响应主要受货币增长率、通胀率及全球食品价格变动等国内外相关宏观变量的影响,与国债收益率因子之间的关系不显著;国债收益率因子对中长期通胀预期的方差波动具有较强解释力,表明国债定价反映了未来通胀的不确定性。本文研究有助于充分利用我国宏观与金融市场信息条件,有效发现和锚定通胀预期,一方面,研究结果可为政策制定者和市场投资者提供科学的决策参考,另一方面,研究方法对丰富宏观金融领域的分析框架具有参考价值。     

中国通货膨胀预期及其影响因素分析——基于混频无套利Nelson-Siegel利率期限结构扩展模型

综合国债市场的利率期限结构信息以及不同频率的宏观信息,本文构建混频无套利Nelson-Siegel利率期限结构扩展模型,在对不同期限债券进行一致性定价理论约束下,提取了中国通货膨胀预期的期限结构并对其进行影响因素分析。研究结果表明,本文模型提取的通胀预期期限丰富、结果稳健,具有较好的参考价值。通胀预期水平和变动响应主要受货币增长率、通胀率及全球食品价格变动等国内外相关宏观变量的影响,与国债收益率因子之间的关系不显著;国债收益率因子对中长期通胀预期的方差波动具有较强解释力,表明国债定价反映了未来通胀的不确定性。本文研究有助于充分利用我国宏观与金融市场信息条件,有效发现和锚定通胀预期,一方面,研究结果可为政策制定者和市场投资者提供科学的决策参考,另一方面,研究方法对丰富宏观金融领域的分析框架具有参考价值。     

利率市场化、国债期货价格发现与风险规避功能

本文基于中国国债期货上市后的交易数据,分析国债期货价格发现功能的效果,及中国国债期货规避利率风险的功能。国债期货价格和现货价格存在长期的协整关系,并且在短期内存在双向的Granger引导关系,说明中国国债期货从合约设计和交易制度上来讲是有效的。通过对国债期货规避利率风险功能的实证分析,发现在样本内运用OLS套保模型和VAR套保模型进行套期保值的效果较好,国债期货发挥出了规避利率风险的功能。目前中国国债期货已经初步发挥了价格发现和规避利率风险的功能,这将促进中国利率市场化改革。     

国债期货定价与交割期权关系实证研究

本文研究我国国债期货中交割期权对期货定价的影响。通过加入对交割期权的考虑,建立期货价格与远期价格的关系,并建立了国债期货定价的线性回归模型。模型认为,国债期货的价格除了和利率有关,还和不同可交割债券对利率变化的敏感性有关,正是这种不同的利率敏感性导致交割期权价值的不同。本文采用期货仿真交易数据和银行间市场的可交割债券实盘数据进行实证研究。分析结果显示存在很强的证据表明交割期权对国债期货定价有显著的影响。     

浮动利率债券定价模型与实证研究

本文从利率期限结构的随机模型理论出发，应用Vasicek模型得到当前的利率期限结构的估计及其隐含的远期利率，进而确定浮动利率债券的未来收益率，再利用附息国债定价公式得到浮动利率国债的价格。实证研究表明，Vasicek模型确定的债券理论价格与市场价格相当吻合。     

央行持有国债变化对利率期限结构的影响——基于美国数据的实证分析

本文采用DRA模型对美联储持有国债比例变化与美国国债利率期限结构以及宏观经济变量之间的交互效应进行了研究。实证结果显示:(1)美联储持有国债比例变化对国债利率期限结构的水平因子和曲度因子存在显著影响,央行持有国债比例的提高有助于降低国债利率的整体水平,但会加大债券市场的价格波动幅度。(2)通过对脉冲响应结果的分析发现,在美联储持有国债比例提高的冲击下,长期国债利率的响应为负,且到期期限越长的国债收益率受美联储持有国债比例提高冲击的反应越强烈,下降幅度越大。     

Alpha-CIR model with branching processes in sovereign interest rate modeling

We introduce a class of interest rate models, called the \(\alpha\)-CIR model, which is a natural extension of the standard CIR model by adding a jump part driven by \(\alpha\)-stable Lévy processes with index \(\alpha\in(1,2]\). We deduce an explicit expression for the bond price by using the fact that the model belongs to the family of CBI and affine processes, and analyze the bond price and bond yield behaviors. The \(\alpha\)-CIR model allows us to describe in a unified and parsimonious way several recent observations on the sovereign bond market such as the persistency of low interest rates together with the presence of large jumps. Finally, we provide a thorough analysis of the jumps, and in particular the large jumps.     

Derivative prices from interest rate models: results for Canada, Hong Kong, and United States

In this paper, we compute implied bond and contingent claim prices from the CKLS, Vasicek, CIR, and BS interest rate models using historical estimates for Canada, Hong Kong, and the United States. We find that default-free bond prices and contingent claim prices are sensitive to the assumed model used for these currencies, and that for Canada the CIR is the best, for Hong Kong the Vasicek and CIR models, and for the US the BS model.     

Stochastic duration and fast coupon bond option pricing in multi-factor models

Generalizing Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1979), this paper defines the stochastic duration of a bond in a general multi-factor diffusion model as the time to maturity of the zero-coupon bond with the same relative volatility as the bond. Important general properties of the stochastic duration measure are derived analytically, and the stochastic duration is studied in detail in various well-known models. It is also demonstrated by analytical arguments and numerical examples that the price of a European option on a coupon bond (and, hence, of a European swaption) can be approximated very accurately by a multiple of the price of a European option on a zero-coupon bond with a time to maturity equal to the stochastic duration of the coupon bond. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Valuing Fixed-Income Options and Mortgage-Backed Securities with Alternative Term Structure Models

To value mortgage-backed securities and options on fixed-income securities, it is necessary to make assumptions regarding the term structure of interest rates. We assume that the multi-factor fixed parameter term structure model accurately represents the actual term structure of interest rates, and that the values of mortgage-backed securities and discount bond options derived from such a term structure model are correct. Differences in the prices of interest rate derivative securities based on single-factor term structure models are therefore due to pricing bias resulting from the term structure model. The price biases that result from the use of single-factor models are compared and attributed to differences in the underlying models and implications for the selection of alternative term structure models are considered.     

A Comparison of Forward and Futures Prices of an Interest Rate-Sensitive Financial Asset

This paper focuses on contractual distinctions as an explanation for the price divergence between futures and forward contracts. Specifically, it investigates the effect of marking-to-market on the observed price differences using the pricing model described in Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (CIR) (1981, Journal of Financial Economics 9, 321–346). Using previously unavailable data, this paper employs Eurodollars, an interest rate-sensitive financial asset, to test the CIR model. Unlike prior empirical studies, test results support both the weak prediction concerning the sign of the average price difference and the stronger prediction that specific covariances explain the variation in the price differences.     

Asymptotics of bond yields and volatilities for extended CIR models under the real-world measure

ABSTRACT

The Cox–Ingersoll–Ross CIR short rate model is a mean-reverting model of the short rate which, for suitably chosen parameters, permits closed-form valuation formulae of zero-coupon bonds and options on zero-coupon bonds. This article supplies proofs of the formulae for the expected present value of payoffs under the real-world probability measure, known as actuarial valuation. Importantly, we give formulae for asymptotic levels of bond yields and volatilities for extended CIR models when suitable conditions are imposed on the model parameters.     

A perturbative approach to Bermudan options pricing with applications

In this paper we address the problem of the valuation of Bermudan option derivatives in the framework of multi-factor interest rate models. We propose a solution in which the exercise decision entails a properly defined series expansion. The method allows for the fast computation of both a lower and an upper bound for the option price, and a tight control of its accuracy, for a generic Markovian interest rate model. In particular, we show detailed computations in the case of the Bond Market Model. As examples we consider the case of a zero coupon Bermudan option and a coupon bearing Bermudan option; in order to demonstrate the wide applicability of the proposed methodology we also consider the case of a last generation payoff, a Bermudan option on a CMS spread bond.     

A Factor Allocation Approach to Optimal Bond Portfolio

This paper proposes a new method to a bond portfolio problem in a multi-period setting. In particular, we apply a factor allocation approach to constructing the optimal bond portfolio in a class of multi-factor Gaussian yield curve models. In other words, we consider a bond portfolio problem in terms of a factors’ allocation problem. Thus, we can obtain clear interpretation about the relation between the change in the shape of a yield curve and dynamic optimal strategy, which is usually hard to be obtained due to high correlations among individual bonds. We first present a closed form solution of the optimal bond portfolio in a class of the multi-factor Gaussian term structure model. Then, we investigate the effects of various changes in the term structure on the optimal portfolio strategy through series of comparative statics.     

A Note on Gaussian Estimation of the CKLS and CIR Models with Feedback Effects for Japan

In this note we extend the Gaussian estimation of two factor CKLS and CIR models recently considered in Nowman, K. B. (2001, Gaussian estimation and forecasting of multi-factor term structure models with an application to Japan and the United Kingdom, Asia Pacif. Financ. Markets 8, 23–34) to include feedback effects in the conditional mean as was originally formulated in general continuous time models by Bergstrom, A. R. (1966, Non-recursive models as discrete approximations to systems of stochastic differential equations, Econometrica 34, 173–182) with constant volatility. We use the exact discrete model of Bergstrom, A. R. (1966, Non-recursive models as discrete approximations to systems of stochastic differential equations, Econometrica 34, 173–182) to estimate the parameters which was first used by Brennan, M. J. and Schwartz, E. S. (1979, A continuous time approach to the pricing of bonds, J. Bank. Financ. 3, 133–155) to estimate their two factor interest model but incorporating the assumption of Nowman, K. B. (1997, Gaussian estimation of single-factor continuous time models of the term structure of interest rates, J. Financ. 52, 1695–1706; 2001, Gaussian estimation and forecasting of multi-factor term structure models with an application to Japan and the United Kingdom, Asia Pacif. Financ. Markets 8, 23–34). An application to monthly Japanese Euro currency rates indicates some evidence of feedback from the 1-year rate to the 1-month rate in both the CKLS and CIR models. We also find a low level-volatility effect supporting Nowman, K. B. (2001, Gaussian estimation and forecasting of multi-factor term structure models with an application to Japan and the United Kingdom, Asia Pacif. Financ. Markets 8, 23–34).