The causes and consequences of world recession

Diverging trends in productivity since the late 1960s, if not before, between the United States and its competitor countries, lie at the heart of the global slump. Over the 1970s, these trends began to be reflected in large deficits in commodity trade - but the tendency was to resolve them by means other than increased investment: at first devaluation, later restrictive monetary policies and rising unemployment. None of these policies helped significantly to achieve the needed structural adjustments but they did serve to aggravate the position and prospects of the poorer developing countries. By the 1980s, this became a crisis situation of serious proportions. Often drought and war or civil strife have reinforced economic difficulties, compounded further in many countries by rising debt service obligations and declining real commodity prices.This combination of external and internal difficulties certainly contributed in the poorer countries to the slowdown, since the 1960s, in reducing infant mortality and in tackling basic child survival and development issues. The impressive progress in reducing IMR by an average of 2% or more a year by a number of developing countries, however, shows what can be done. Although rising expenditure is by no means a sufficient condition for child progress, declining expenditures and severe balance-of-payments problems greatly constrain programmes for expanding child services.     

The economic consequences of the peace

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The economic consequences of the peaceJ. M. Keynes, Londen, Mac Millan and Co., 279 bladz

     

The economic consequences of Dutch politics

Review article of Centraal Planbureau,Vijf verkiezingsprogramma's: Economische gevolgen van voorgenomen beleid (Five Electrion Programmes: Economic Consequences of Intended Policies; in Dutch), SDU, Den Haag, 1994. Pp. 220     

The pattern and causes of economic growth in India

This paper presents the broad macro parameters of the growthof the Indian economy since the nation's independence and across-country evaluation of where India stands, drawing outthe patterns discernible in these aggregative statistics. Thepaper gives an overview of the on-going debate on the componentsof the Indian growth and the relative importance of the differentpolicies in the 1980s and 1990s. It contributes to this debateby identifying the landmark years, and analysing the politicsbehind some of the economics. The paper also analyses the factorsbehind the changes in India's savings rate and the relationbetween growth and development, on the one hand, and the natureof labour market regulation, on the other.     

Cultural heterogeneity,social policy,and economic growth in China

By using World Values Survey (WVS) data and other datasets, this paper measures the heterogeneity of Chinese residents' values and explores the relationships among cultural diversity, economic growth, and social policy in China. The study finds that, from 1990 to 2013, there was an overall rise in the value heterogeneity of Chinese residents, and cultural heterogeneity is mainly driven by within-group rather than between-group heterogeneity. Groups of residents with higher levels of income and education seem to have a lower degree of value heterogeneity. Panel-data regressions show that cultural heterogeneity is negatively correlated with provincial economic growth, and positively correlated with social conflict. Although social policies cannot directly affect cultural diversity itself, they may impact the way that cultural heterogeneity influences economic and social outcomes. In provinces with relatively low fiscal expenditures on education, cultural diversity has a stronger negative effect on GDP growth and a larger positive effect on social conflict. A social policy that boosts social security expenditures could also weaken the positive effect of cultural diversity on social conflict.     

The global economic consequences of the Uruguay Round

This paper examines the provisions of the recently completed Uruguay Round and evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of the Round on major countries and regions of the world. The implications of the Uruguay Round are measured using the G-cubed multicountry model. This model captures macroeconomic and sectoral linkages within the global economy. This study differs from other studies in that it considers the dynamic adjustment path, the impact of expectations formation, and the sectoral as well as macroeconomic consequences of the Round. The results are compared with other studies of the Uruguay Round. Ignoring major changes in productivity induced by the Round, it is found that the gains to the world economy are likely to be around $200 billion (1990) per year by the year 2000. The distribution of the gains across regions from the Round differ from other studies because of the adjustment of international capital flows. Private capital flows to regions that undertake the most extensive liberalization initially worsen their trade positions. In regions that liberalize less and experience a capital outflow, the production gains tends to be less than conventional studies find. The adjustment of private capital has important implications for exchange rates, and therefore for the adjustment of the international trading system over the decade of the implementation of the Round.     

Export instability and economic development: The case of Colombia

Zusammenfassung Instabilit?t der Exporte und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung: Der Fall Kolumbien. — In diesem Artikel wird über ein Forschungsvorhaben berichtet, in dem die l?ngerfristigen Wirkungen instabiler Exporte auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung untersucht werden. Als Analyseinstrument dient ein gesamtwirtschaftliches Modell des allgemeinen Gleichgewichts, das für ein recht typisches rohstoffexportierendes Entwicklungsland, n?mlich Kolumbien, spezifiziert wurde. Das Ergebnis stützt die These, da\ Exportinstabilit?t die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung beeintr?chtigt. Eine st?rkere, durch instabile Exporte induzierte gesamtwirtschaftliche Instabilit?t führt einerseits zu h?heren Ersparnissen und andererseits dazu, da\ die Regierung mehr internationale Reserven nachfragt, um bei gr?\eren transitorischen exogenen Schocks stabilisierend eingreifen zu k?nnen. Insgesamt ergibt sich, da\ bei Einkommensinstabilit?t die Reservenachfrage der Regierung die “freiwillige” Ersparnis der Konsumenten übersteigt, so da\ die realen Investitionen in der Gesamtwirtschaft betr?chtlich sinken. Dies hat negative Folgen für die gegenw?rtige Wohlfahrt und auf l?ngere Sicht auch für das Wirtschaftswachstum in Kolumbien. Von daher kann man schlie\en, da\ internationale wirtschaftspolitische Ma\nahmen, die das Halten einer instabilit?tsbedingt h?heren Reserve in Kolumbien überflüssig machen würden, dem Lande helfen k?nnen, die sch?dlichen Wirkungen der Instabilit?t zu vermeiden.

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Résumé L’instabilité des exportations et le développement économique: Le cas de la Colombie. — Cet article donne un rapport sur des recherches regardant les effets de l’instabilité des exportations sur le développement économique. L’auteur applique un computable modèle d’équilibre général pour étudier l’impact des fluctuations des exportations sur l’allocation des ressources et le revenu en Colombie, un assez typique pays en voie de développement qui exporte des matières premières. L’analyse supporte la proposition que l’instabilité des exportations est au détriment du développement économique en Colombie. Une instabilité plus haute dans l’économie nationale associée avec l’instabilité des exportations mène d’une part aux épargnes augmentées. D’autre part le gouvernement demande des réserves internationales de plus afin de stabiliser l’économie s’il y a des grands chocs exogènes transitoires. L’auteur arrive au résultat que la demande de réserve gouvernementale excède le montant des ressources mis à disposition par les épargnes volontaires des consommateurs de sorte que l’investissement réel agrégé doit baisser considérablement. Cela a des conséquences négatives pour le bien-être et à long terme aussi pour la croissance économique en Colombie. Sur la base de ces résultats on peut conclure que des mesures qui rendraient inutiles une augmentation des réserves internationales aideraient la Colombie à surmonter les effets adverses de l’instabilité.

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Resumen Inestabilidad de las exportaciones y desarrollo económico: el caso de Colombia. — El presente artículo informa sobre la investigación sobre los efectos de la inestabilidad de las exportaciones sobre el desarrollo económico. Se utiliza un modelo de equilibrio general computable para estudiar el impacto de las fluctuaciones de exportación sobre la asignación y el ingreso en Colombia, un típico país en desarrollo exportador de materias primas. El análisis efectuado en este artículo da sustento a la proposición que la inestabilidad de exportación es perjudicial para el desarrollo económico en Colombia. Una mayor inestabilidad asociada con inestabilidad de las exportaciones conduce por un lado a mayores ahorros. Por el otro lado el gobierno demanda mayores reservas internacionales con el fin de ejercer una influencia estabilizadora ante la presencia de largos estremecimientos exógenos transitorios. Resulta que la demanda del gobierno por reservas excede la cantidad de recursos proporcionada por los ahorros ?voluntarios? de los consumidores en vista de ingresos inestables, de tal manera que la inversión real agregada tiene que disminuir considerablemente. Esto tiene consecuencias negativas para el bienestar y en el largo plazo también sobre el crecimiento económico de Colombia. Sobre la base de estos resultados se puede concluir que las medidas que conducen a aumentar las reservas internacionales en vista de inestabilidad en las exportaciones, innecesariamente ayudaría a Colombia a sobreponerse a los efectos adversos de la inestabilidad.

     

The transformation of Australian economic and social history

This article reviews the first four books published in a new Australian series entitled ‘Themes in Australian Economic and Social History’. These volumes include: A. Dingle, Aboriginal economy: patterns of experience; R.V. Jackson, The population history of Australia; W. Bate, Victorian gold rushes; A.L. Lougheed, Australia and the world economy. The series is edited by C.B. Schedvin in association with the Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand and is published by McPhee Gribble Publishers, Melbourne. Each attractively presented book is approximately seventy pages long and is priced at $9.99. Further volumes in this series have been commissioned.     

The causes and consequences of rent-seeking in Northern Ireland, 1945–721

Northern Ireland’s economic performance during the ‘golden age’ was weak. Crafts suggested that rent-seeking was an important determinant of this poor record. This article offers support for such a conclusion. It is suggested that the growth record was shaped by British regulations preventing conflicts of ministerial interest not being made operational until 1963. This institutional divergence tended to promote rent-seeking behaviour, which impeded the pursuit of an industrial policy that could promote economic efficiency. In 1963 the institutional structure and the industrial policy framework changed. These changes stimulated the pursuit of efficiency and contributed to an improved regional economic performance.     

The assessment: economic policy and social democracy

The economic objectives of recent governments of the Left werefull employment, reducing inequality, and enhancing economicperformance and democratic control by measures of planning andsocialization. The economic inheritance was difficult - stagnantinvestment, high unemployment in a number of cases, and inflationhigher than that of competitors. The generalized productivityslow-down, slow growth, and the drive to reduce inflation representedan unfavourable context. The supply-side interventions atrophied,were abandoned or reversed. Employment performance was pooroverall and sometime s disastrous. Some extensions of the welfarestate were achieved and major increases in inequality were avoided,but this record was hardly exceptional. Globalization is oftenblamed for such disappointments. Here, the emphasis is on theinherent difficulties of the social democratic project - containingdistributional conflict other than by unemployment, sustainingsupport for redistribution when living standards are stagnating,and constraining business while relying on it to maintain highinvestment.     

Central bank losses: causes and consequences

This paper seeks to understand the causes and consequences of central banks' losses. Ignorance of this vital issue over a sustained period has led to negative impacts on economies and on central banking and monetary policy effectiveness. Data from developing countries and economies in transition show that central bank losses have reached significant magnitudes. Engaging in quasi‐fiscal activities is responsible for most such losses because it increases central banks' expenditures. The main features of these fiscal activities are their large size and riskiness, and they are difficult to control. Central bank revenues can also be negatively affected because of declines in inflation rates and in the demand for money.     

在经济法理念下建构我国农村社会保障体系

经济法的基本理念包含公平观、经济安全观、可持续发展观，在这一理论指导下的农村社会保障制度的建立对我国农村的现状而言是十分重要的。本文对经济法理念及农村社会保障现状，农村社会保障所彰显的经济法理念以及农村社会保障的构建途径方面进行了探索。     

COVID-19 pandemic,health risks,and economic consequences: Evidence from China

This paper introduces the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered model into the Bewley-type incomplete market model and uses it to study the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on China's macroeconomics. The calibrated model predicts that the average propensity to consume household wealth will decline, while the demand for money will increase, and these predictions are consistent with the data. Monetary policy is effective because it provides enough liquidity for households to buffer health risks. Monetary stimulus is more effective in an economy with greater health risks and consumption uncertainty. Counterfactual experiments show that abandoning the containment policy too early would avoid a sharp drop in output and employment in the short term, but it would greatly increase mortality and ultimately lead to a decline in social welfare.     

论当代中国社会阶层结构变迁与经济现代化

社会阶层结构本质上是经济结构的社会反映和表现形式,经济现代化需要社会阶层结构的现代化。经济现代化的推进促使当代中国的社会阶层结构发生了深刻变化,但后者与经济现代化尚不适应。推动社会阶层结构向现代化转变的关键是发展经济。     

On economic causes of civil war

We investigate whether civil wars have economic causes. Themodel is based on utility theory, rebels will conduct a civilwar if the perceived benefits outweigh the costs of rebellion.Using probit and tobit models the propositions are tested empirically.Four variables, initial income, ethno-linguistic fractionalisation,the amount of natural resources, and initial population sizeare significant and strong determinants of the duration andthe probability of civil wars. One important finding is thatthe relationship between civil wars and ethnic diversity isnon-monotoniq highly fractionalised societies have no greaterrisk of experiencing a civil war than homogenous ones.