The Evolution of Japan's Aggressive Legalism

Japan's recent trade policy is sometimes characterised as ‘aggressive legalism’ in the sense that it aggressively utilises the multilateral trade rules embodied in the Marrakesh Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organisation in dealing with disputes with its trade partners. This policy may appear to be a marked departure from Japan's past practice of favouring bilateral, non‐legal settlement of trade disputes. Upon closer examination, however, while Japan has been moderately active in using the WTO dispute settlement process for resolving its trade disputes, it behaves more like a country that resorts to surgical strikes on selected targets (usually the United States) under a powerful cover of the European Community. Compared to Japan, Korea's attitude in the WTO is more aggressive. While the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) is not content with the status quo and is seeking to expand its aggressiveness in the WTO dispute settlement mechanism, it faces an uphill battle. One of the difficulties facing trade officials in Japan may be the lack of a national system for lodging WTO complaints, open to any citizens or firms, like Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974 or the European Trade Barriers Regulation. Nonetheless, in the historical context, Japan is far more aggressive than in the past in utilising the rules of the GATT/WTO to advance its national interests. It will never revert to the infamous practice of bilateralism and grey area measures.     

WTO Rules on Direct Taxation

The widely‐followed ruling by the WTO's Dispute Settlement Body against the United States concerning the latter's FSC/ETI scheme, which led to the largest retaliation award ever authorised in a dispute at the WTO, confirmed (if there were ever any doubt) that, generally speaking, direct taxes, like indirect taxes (including tariffs), are subject to the multilateral rules of the WTO, notwithstanding efforts by tax authorities to secure specific exemptions for certain direct tax measures in these agreements. This ruling reconfirmed the traditional distinction under international trade rules between direct and indirect taxes, particularly with respect to how such taxes should be treated under the subsidy and border tax adjustment rules of the WTO. It prompted the US Congress finally to pass legislation in late 2004 to repeal the FSC/ETI scheme as part of a larger overhaul of the US corporate tax system. The most recent disputes between the United States and the European Communities over assistance to large civil aircraft (allegedly amounting in each case to even more than the FSC/ETI) also encompass direct tax measures. It would not be surprising if other WTO‐inconsistent direct tax measures were identified in the future, leading to further disputes among WTO Members. Multilateral WTO rules, which are agreed by consensus, can therefore be expected to continue to be an important factor in determining how Members shape their tax policies, as they will undoubtedly want to avoid having their tax policies successfully challenged in the WTO.     

US–Brazil Cotton Dispute and the World Cotton Market

US policies for its cotton producers depress world cotton prices, adversely affecting exporters such as Brazil, which filed a complaint to the WTO. Despite WTO rulings in Brazil's favour, meting out the right to enact retaliatory countermeasures, the United States continues to subsidise its cotton farmers. After prolonged negotiations, Brazil and the United States reached an agreement which allowed the United States to pay Brazil to refrain from enforcing the countermeasures. To capture the adverse effects of US policies, theoretical analyses are conducted. The theoretical model is extended by constructing an empirical model of the world cotton market. The adverse effects of US policies on Brazil are estimated and compared to the compensation the United States pays Brazil.     

US–Brazilian cotton policies

Brazil filed a lawsuit with the WTO against the United States for providing cotton production and export subsidies, and the WTO ruled in favour of Brazil. Brazil threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs if the United States does not comply with the WTO rulings. After a prolonged litigation stretching from 2002 to 2010, both countries agreed to a negotiated settlement wherein the United States paid Brazilian cotton producers to compensate for any adverse effects. This study develops a political economic model to theoretically analyse US cotton policies, Brazil's threat of retaliatory tariffs and the negotiated settlement between the two countries. The theoretical results show that the volume of cotton output, supply price response, politicians' apathy for the public welfare, elasticities of excess supply/demand and the magnitude of US transfers play a crucial role in determining US policies. This study contributes to the literature by being the first to model political economic aspects of the complex system of trade and domestic policies in the cotton industry using a three-country framework, tariff retaliation and transfers between the countries.     

Indonesia – Trade Policy Review 2007

This paper examines the 2007 WTO review of Indonesian trade policy. Indonesia undertook a major policy liberalisation in the late 1960s. Serious protectionist pressures emerged in the 1970s but for most of this period, and especially since the mid‐1980s, the economy has remained broadly open. We summarise the WTO report, update some of its analysis, highlight its key findings, and point to some trade policy issues that in our opinion warranted greater attention. The main theme of the paper is that Indonesia is a largely open economy, but that this openness on occasion remains precarious. There are both political economy, rent‐seeking forces opposed to the current openness and, perhaps more importantly, much of the country's influential public opinion is sceptical of the merits of an open economy and deeper global commercial integration. Nor is there a deeply institutionalised support for openness in the country's bureaucracy and polity. Seen from this perspective, a key question to answer is why the country has remained open, particularly since the deep economic and political crises of 1997–98.     

Facing up to Trump administration mercantilism: The 2018 WTO trade policy review of the United States

As one of the largest trading economies in the WTO system, US trade policy is reviewed regularly by WTO members, informed by a Trade Policy Review (TPR) report. This paper discusses the 2018 TPR of the United States, the 14th such review undertaken since the entry into force of the WTO in 1995. It is the first review of trade policy under the Trump administration. While the TPR documents the significant changes in US trade policy, it does not engage with the mercantilist vision that motivates trade policy under President Trump or the apparent desire to engage in trade wars with its major trading partners. The lack of discussion of the existential threat to the liberal trading system implied by the drastic changes to US trade policy reduces the salience of the TPR and makes it unclear exactly what purpose it serves.     

Problems with credit rating and reporting systems in Mexico: A barrier to North America's full economic development?

In many regions of the globe today outside the US and Canada, existing networks for evaluating borrowers' credit histories, for recording borrowers' pledges of assets backing loans, and for the legal enforcement of creditor claims are often poorly developed. Inside North America these problems with credit information flows and legal enforcement systems are most evident inside Mexico, where credit reporting networks and the courts work under a somewhat different set of rules than in Canada and the United States. A national mail survey of more than 300 US banks lending across international boundaries into Mexico found that many US bankers have reservations about the credibility of credit reporting and credit security systems inside Mexico. If these reservations persist, they can lead to a fundamental restructuring of that developing nation's industry that could discourage international capital inflows and curtail the emergence of small business. Indeed, unless current credit information flows are more fully integrated and are of more uniform quality throughout North America, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is likely to continue to fall short of its promise of significant job growth and improved living standards throughout the continent. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Why has the United States continued to receive net investment income as a debtor country?

Why has the United States been able to keep receiving net international investment income as a debtor country? Several authors have pointed out that it is because US direct investments abroad have been generating better returns than have foreign direct investments in the United States. However, there is no consensus on why this is the case. This paper investigates this issue by conducting panel regressions to identify the main determinants of return on US direct investment abroad (RUSDIA) and those of return on foreign direct investment in the United States (RFDIUS), using data from 49 countries over the 1994–2013 period. Our findings suggest that the largest contributor to the RUSDIA‐RFDIUS gap is USDIA's advantage in the internalisation effect, which more than offset any negative age effect. The second largest contributor is income‐shifting activities by US‐controlled MNCs aiming to lower their overall tax payments. The third contributor is the negative age effect of inward FDI in the United States, which more than offset its weak internalisation effect. Altogether, those effects account for about 50% of the average return gap from 1994 to 2013. The contribution of the risk‐compensation hypothesis to the return gap is negligible.     

The WTO Panel Report on Boeing subsidies: a critical assessment

On 31 March 2011, the World Trade Organisation’s Dispute Settlement Body circulated the final Panel Report on US subsidies for the aircraft manufacturer Boeing. The long expected decision marks a turning point in the biggest trade dispute in WTO history, but its interpretations diverge substantially: both the United States and the European Union have claimed a “sweeping” victory, and yet both parties appealed parts of the Panel Report in April 2011. In addition, the Airbus Appellate Body Report in the Airbus case, which was issued on 18 May 2011, reversed many of the Panel’s findings against the EU. Which WTO-inconsistent subsidies did the Dispute Settlement Body find and what is the outlook for the future?     

Trade‐Policy Issues and Policy Options for Japan and the United States: Introduction and Overview

This symposium includes papers that analyse a number of issues that are likely to play a key role in the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) negotiations. These issues are analysed from the perspective of US‐Japanese economic relations. In these papers, the economic effects of the WTO negotiating options available to both countries are explored. A final paper examines the important issues raised by the free trade agreements (FTAs) that have or will soon be negotiated by the United States and Japan. Brief summaries of the papers are provided. With all the advantages that have accrued to Japan from the multilateral trading system, it is not surprising that for many years Japan, alone among the world's major economies, stayed aloof from regional trading arrangements. The very past success of the multilateral trading system has made further progress at this level far more complex and has pushed many countries, Japan included, to look to new and deeper regional trading agreements as a more productive path. But it should not be forgotten that while FTAs may be easier to conclude, their benefits are modest compared with what can be gained from a successful Doha Round, and the costs from new distortions imposed on regional trade can be very significant for some of the world's poorer economies. Every good reason remains for Japan to continue to wish to be a pillar of the WTO and of the new Doha Round.     

European Competition vs. Global Competitiveness Transferring EU Rules on State Aid and Public Procurement Beyond Europe

As long as state aid outside the EU is unregulated, the European Commission faces a dilemma: either European firms will be disadvantaged in global competition by strict EU rules, or the Commission will come under pressure to relax the rules, thereby running the risk that fair competition within the EU will be undermined. As a consequence, the Commission attempts to promote EU rules on state aid and public procurement beyond EU borders — in non-member countries as well as at the WTO level. This article analyses the Commission’s channels of regulatory transfer and the factors accounting for its varying success. Bilateral cooperation provides many opportunities to spread European state aid rules, but decentralised enforcement at the national level remains ultimately deficient. Moreover, the transfer of European rules to the multilateral WTO depends heavily on the EU’s ability to reach prior consensus with its most powerful partner and rival, the US government.     

Does Taiwan's entry into the WTO truly reduce its agricultural output values?

This study has used the time series data of Australia, China, Denmark, India, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, the Philippines, South Korea, Spain, and the United States from the World Bank to estimate the agricultural economic shock of Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). We have adopted the recently developed panel data approach for policy evaluation to construct the annual agricultural growth path of Taiwan, which is mainly based on the cross-sectional correlations between the domestic and international agricultural trade markets in the absence of Taiwan's entry into the WTO. Our results have not only revealed the importance of ex post counterfactual analysis, but also provided empirical evidence that the agricultural economic shock is not as severe as predicted by many ex ante studies. Based on these results, we have concluded that the outcome may have arisen from the slow progress of achieving agricultural trade liberalization under the WTO and the Taiwanese Government's effective adoption of phase-in periods and relative adjustment policies.     

Internationalization of currencies: The case of the US dollar and its challenger euro

This article examines the benefits and costs to the United States of having the US dollar used as an international currency and explains the factors underlying the dollar's use internationally. The main benefit for the United States is that it derives seigniorage from the dollar's international use while the main cost is that there is less scope for controlling domestic monetary conditions. There are three prerequisites for the international use of a currency: (1) confidence in the political stability of the issuing country; (2) deep, broad, and open financial markets in the issuing country; and (3) a large share of world exports on the part of the issuing country. The implications of the euro for the dollar's leading international position are discussed. Data are presented showing that the dollar is the world's leading international currency.     

中国诉美国对来自中国某些货物的关税措施(301条款)案评析

中国诉美国“301条款”关税措施案源起于美国根据其国内法出具的301调查结果而对中国采取的单边征税措施。专家组在报告中鼓励平行于WTO争端解决机制开展的双边谈判,认定美国违反了最惠国待遇义务且不能援引“公共道德”例外免责。作为中国诉美国关税系列案的第一案,本案对理解与适用GATT第20条的例外规定、DSU第12.7条和第23条的规定都具有极大的借鉴意义。在单边主义大行其道、WTO上诉机构瘫痪的背景下,面对美国滥用其301条款发起的种种挑战,中国如何运用国际法规则、尽善尽美地维护自身权益仍任重道远。     

Bilateral ‘WTO‐Plus’ Free Trade Agreements: The WTO Trade Policy Review of Singapore 2004

The World Trade Organisation's 2004 Trade Policy Review of Singapore (WTO‐TPR Singapore 2004) depicts the small and outward‐oriented economy as one of the most open countries to international trade and investment. The review highlights the benefits of the outward‐oriented strategy that has enabled the Singapore economy to weather recent external shocks such as the Asian financial crisis to the SARS and to the recent unfavourable conditions in the Middle East. In particular, the report commended Singapore's efforts on its liberalisation of the services sector and its economic benefits to consumers and global trade. However, the WTO‐TPR Singapore 2004 highlights several key areas of concerns: (a) the commitment to multilateral agreements with the rising number of bilateral free trade agreements signed by Singapore and (b) the lack of growth of total factor productivity, a key indicator for long‐run efficiency of the economy. The paper addresses the above key concerns raised in the WTO's TPR of Singapore in terms of its commitment to global trade in terms of WTO‐plus bilateral FTAs, which intends to support a multilateral trading system, and its overall industrial strategies to raise its competitiveness.     

The Future of Privacy: A Consumer‐Oriented Approach to Managing Personal Data Online

Beginning with Facebook's recent controversial “tweaks” to its privacy policy and its promise to support users against employers and others who attempt to compel users to divulge passwords, we critically review European Union (EU) and US digital privacy initiatives. Whereas the EU proposal relies on legislative regulation, the United States proposes industry self‐regulation partially enforceable by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). We conclude that not only do the sharply differing EU and US approaches present significant problems of global digital interoperability, but neither proposal promises to result in practical and feasible consumer protection, at least not in the near term. Moreover, the EU proposal poses serious threats to the profitability of digital commerce. As an alternative, we propose a “third approach,” empowering the individual digital consumer/user through a personal online strategy we call “wide‐open privacy,” which provides security without sacrificing the transformative economic, cultural, and personal benefits of the Internet. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

India: Trade Policy Review

The review of India's trade policy by the WTO, the third of its kind, is in three parts: the report by the WTO secretariat, a statement by the government of India and minutes of the discussion of the report by the trade policy review board. The review provides detailed information not only on India's trade and foreign investment policies but also an analytical review of India's export and economic performance. The review notes that India has made considerable progress with the liberalisation of its trade and investment regime, but it has a long way to go if it were to achieve a growth rate of eight to nine per cent, the stated objective of the policy makers. This paper, drawing upon the material in the report, analyses India's growth prospects and endorses the broad conclusions of the report.     

Trade Disputes and Non‐state Actors: New Institutional Arrangements and the Privatisation of Commercial Diplomacy

Critical aspects of commercial diplomacy in the United States and the European Union are undergoing a process of gradual privatisation. We examine institutional arrangements that permit private groups (predominantly industry associations and firms) to petition for the initiation of trade disputes, propose agenda items for multilateral negotiations in the World Trade Organisation, and conduct negotiations on proposals for regulatory reform outside state‐to‐state channels. These include the United States’ Section 301, the European Union's Trade Barriers Regulation, formal consultation processes surrounding WTO negotiations, and the Transatlantic Business Dialogue. We explore the reasons why governments have opened up these new access points for industry, draw comparisons among the institutions and between the US and EU experience of them, and outline patterns of industry use of the petition mechanisms by broad industrial classification. Along with building theory on comparative private‐sector policy substitutability, we consider some of the normative issues raised by institutions for privatised commercial diplomacy.     

Friends like this: The impact of the US–China trade war on global value chains

This paper considers the indirect impact the recent tariff increases between the United States and China can have on third countries through links in global supply chains. We combine data from input–output relationships, imports and tariffs, to calculate the impact of the tariff increases by both the United States and China on cumulative tariffs paid by third countries. We show that the tariff hikes increase cumulative tariffs for other countries and thus hurt trade partners further downstream in global supply chains. We also show that this is particularly important for tariff increases on Chinese imports in the United States. These are likely to be used as intermediates in production in the United States, which are then re-exported to third countries. The most heavily hit third countries are the closest trade partners, namely the EU, Canada and Mexico. We estimate that the tariffs impose an additional burden of around 500 million to 1 billion US dollars on these countries. China's tariffs on US imports have less of an effect.     

Canada's Anti‐dumping and Safeguard Policies: Overt and Subtle Forms of Discrimination

Like many countries in the international trading system, Canada repeatedly faces political pressure from industries seeking protection from import competition. I examine Canadian policymakers’ response to this pressure within the economic environment created by its participation in discriminatory trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In particular, I exploit new sources of data on Canada's use of potentially WTO‐consistent import‐restricting policies such as anti‐dumping, global safeguards and a China‐specific safeguard. I illustrate subtle ways in which Canadian policymakers may be structuring the application of such policies so as to reinforce the discrimination inherent in Canada's external trade policy because of the preferences granted to the United States and Mexico through NAFTA.