蜀地争霸谁主沉浮?

东风卡车如同这春光明媚的春天一样在四川市场春风得意,演绎的动人的"花样年华".继去年东风卡车在四川销售取得良好业绩之后,今年1-2月仍强劲增长势头,销量同比增加20%以上,占四川市场卡车全部销量的60%以上.     

Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy

Industrial countries moving from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes experience dramatic rises in the variability of the real exchange rate. This evidence, forcefully documented by Mussa [Nominal exchange regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: evidence and implications. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25 (1986) 117], is a puzzle because it is hard to reconcile with the assumption of flexible prices. This paper lays out a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy that combines nominal price rigidity with a systematic behavior of monetary policy able to approximate a continuum of exchange rate regimes. A version of the model with complete exchange rate pass-through is broadly consistent with Mussa’s findings. Most importantly, this holds independently of the underlying source of fluctuations in the economy, stressing the role of the nominal exchange rate regime per se in affecting the variability of the real exchange rate. However, only a model featuring incomplete exchange rate pass-through can account for a broader range of exchange rate statistics. Finally there exist ranges of values for either the degree of openness or the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods for which the baseline model is also consistent with the empirical insensitivity of output volatility to the type of exchange rate regime, as documented by Baxter and Stockman [Journal of Monetary Economics 23 (1989) 377].     

Industrial research and development and real exchange rate depreciation in a small open economy

To examine how changes in relative national prices affect innovation input, this paper studies the impact of changes in industry-specific effective real exchange rates on industrial R&D expenditures in Korea. In particular, it explores the heterogeneous responses of industries with different export intensities. Employing dynamic panel data estimation techniques, the results suggest that among industries with medium levels of export intensity a lagged depreciation in industry-specific effective real exchange rate leads to a decline in contemporaneous industry-level R&D expenditures. However, this adverse effect is insignificant for industries that either mostly serve the domestic markets or that are heavily engaged in foreign markets.     

金融创新与实体经济振兴视野下的民营银行发展路径选择

在金融创新的视野下,民营银行、互联网金融等金融发展新载体不断涌现.当代中国大刀阔斧推动金融创新的直接动力在于振兴实体经济、打破金融垄断继而实现金融体系的良性循环.从维护地区金融秩序、确保金融改革有序推进的角度来讲,中国的民营银行发展理应稳中有进,合理控制发展节奏;特色发展,充分发挥机构优势;定策明规,优化机构发展环境;制度优化,助力机构长效发展.     

加入WTO与中国金融开放

本文依据WTO有关规则及中国加入WTO的谈判协议,指出目前中国金融管理制度中存在着市场准入程度不高、外资金融业享受"超国民待遇"以及金融管理制度不透明等问题,并由此为出发点,探讨了中国加入WTO后的金融开放、金融管制以及金融稳定等政策措施之间的关系.     

Inflation,R&D and growth in an open economy

This study explores the long-run effects of inflation in a two-country Schumpeterian growth model with cash-in-advance constraints on consumption and R&D investment. We find that increasing domestic inflation reduces domestic R&D investment and the growth rate of domestic technology. Given that economic growth in a country depends on both domestic and foreign technologies, increasing foreign inflation also affects the domestic economy. When each government conducts its monetary policy unilaterally to maximize the welfare of domestic households, the Nash-equilibrium inflation rates are generally higher than the optimal inflation rates chosen by cooperative governments who maximize the welfare of both domestic and foreign households. Under the CIA constraint on R&D (consumption), a larger market power of firms amplifies (mitigates) this inflationary bias. We use cross-country panel data to estimate the effects of inflation on R&D and also calibrate the two-country model to data in the Euro Area and the US to quantify the welfare effects of decreasing the inflation rates from the Nash equilibrium to the optimal level.     

中国金融开放:模式、基础条件和市场效应评估

本文分析中国金融开放的进程和现状,总结典型大国和新兴经济体金融开放的经验和教训,提出中国金融全面开放的路径选择,并评估开放后的市场效应。本文的核心观点是:中国金融全面开放的过程中,在政策设计上建议选取“货币政策独立和资本自由流动”之组合,形成市场决定的汇率形成机制;金融机构的开放是中国金融开放的独特路径,但人民币自由化始终是一个不能绕开的坎;中国金融全面开放的硬实力基本具备,但软实力相对薄弱,金融基础设施亟待改进和完善;中国金融全面开放的目标有两个,即人民币自由化、国际化和形成新的国际金融中心;中国金融开放后的市场效应具有大国经济和新兴经济体双重特征,全面开放后中国金融的市场变化(主要指人民币汇率)会呈现短期波动、长期收敛的趋势。     

Trade liberalization, product variety and growth in a small open economy: a quantitative assessment

We develop a numerical growth model that quantifies the welfare effects of trade liberalization. Additional intermediate input varieties provide the engine of growth and dramatically magnify the welfare gains from trade liberalization. In our central model, a 10% tariff cut leads to a 10.6% estimated gain in Hicksian EV. Systematic sensitivity analysis shows that there is virtually no chance of a welfare increase less than 3%, but a 6.6% chance of a welfare gain greater than 18%. We show that complementary reforms are crucial to fully realize the potential gains from the trade reform.     

Monitoring credit risk in the social economy sector by means of a binary goal programming model

Monitoring the credit risk of firms in the social economy sector presents a considerable challenge, since it is difficult to calculate ratings with traditional methods such as logit or discriminant analysis, due to the relatively small number of firms in the sector and the low default rate among cooperatives. This paper introduces a goal programming model to overcome such constraints and to successfully manage credit risk using economic and financial information, as well as expert advice. After introducing the model, its application to a set of Spanish cooperative societies is described.     

Conceptualizing brand values in the charity sector: the relationship between sector,cause and organization

Charity brands have been found to assist income generation by enhancing donor understanding of an organization and what it stands for. Despite an increasing interest in this topic few studies have addressed the dimensions of such brands and sought to explore the link (if any) with donor behaviour. In this paper, we focus on the personality traits of non-profit brands and begin by exploring how these may be structured. Reporting the findings of a series of nine focus groups, we conclude that dimensions of personality apply at the sector, causal and organizational levels and that the perception of specific categories of trait may be linked to individual giving behaviour.     

White,black, and green multipliers: Effects of white,black, and green sector activities on the economy and on the development of consumer services

The effects of production and consumption in the informal sectors, i.e., the black sector (illegal because of tax evasion) and the green (household) sector, are described by a macro model. Effects upon employment, balance of payments, and public deficit are considered. Empirical implementation with Danish data shows that the black and green sectors have negligible effects on the government deficit, and that activities in the green sector are much more harmful to white employment and the balance of payments than are activities in the black sector. The results indicate that formal and informal production of services — the major part of the black and green sectors — could be increased without much damage to the balance of payments and the government deficit. Whether such an increase of service production would also solve the social problems related to unemployment is more debatable, since many service jobs are likely to be considered by the public as unproductive uses of labour.

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Zusammenfassung Die Auswirkungen von Produktion und Verbrauch im informellen Sektor, also im schwarzen Sektor (Schattenwirtschaft, die wegen Steuerhinterziehung illegal ist) und im grünen Sektor (private Haushalte) werden anhand eines Makromodells beschrieben. Die Wirkungen auf die Beschäftigung, auf das Zahlungsbilanzgleichgewicht und auf die Staatsverschuldung stehen dabei im Mittelpunkt. Die empirische Analyse anhand dänischer Daten macht deutlich, daß der schwarze und der grüne Sektor zu vernachlässigende Auswirkungen auf das Haushaltsdefizit haben, sowie, daß Aktivitäten des grünen Sektors der Vollbeschäftigung und dem Zahlungsbilanzgleichgewicht im weißen Sektor weitaus mehr schaden als Aktivitäten des schwarzen Sektors.Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß die formelle und informelle Produktion von Dienstleistungen — Hauptbestandteil des schwarzen und grünen Sektors — ohne größeren Schaden für die Zahlungsbilanz und für das Haushaltsdefizit ausgeweitet werden könnten. Ob ein derartiger Anstieg der Dienstleistungsproduktion die mit der Arbeitslosigkeit verbundenen sozialen Probleme lösen könnte, ist fraglich. Denn die Öffentlichkeit neigt dazu, viele Dienstleistungen als unproduktive Verwendung von Arbeitskraft anzusehen.

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Hans Aage is an associate professor at the Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Studiestræde 6, DK-1455 Copenhagen K, Denmark.     

Conceptualization of the real economy and Islamic finance: Transformation beyond the asset‐link rhetoric

A key factor behind the chronic crises in modern economies is the growing dominance of financialization and the resulting disconnect between the real economy and the financial sector, to which conventional financial industry is a key contributor. In contrast, Islamic finance claims to be real‐economy‐oriented, as all transactions must be asset‐linked (asset‐backed or asset‐based). However, is Islamic Finance based on proper conceptualization of the real economy? What is the real economy and its dynamics? How Islamic finance is interfaced with the real economy? In this article, the claimed real‐economy‐orientation is examined by presenting a conceptualization of the real economy and then evaluating the related discourse accordingly. The analysis presented, especially for noneconomists, exposes a serious gap between the claims about Islamic finance and the real economy it is supposed to advance. Appropriate conceptualization of the real economy can help the industry to be relevant and effective for broader socioeconomic transformation.     

Expectations,monetary policy rules,and macroeconomic stability: Analysis of an open economy with flexible exchange rates

This paper makes use of a dynamic model of an open economy with flexible exchange rates to examine the dynamic characteristics of the system for different specifications of monetary authority behavior. The model contains dynamic adjustment equations for both output and prices. Two policy rules are examined: (a) maintaining a constant nominal money supply growth, and (b) maintaining a constant nominal interest rate. With the former the system is found to be self-equilibrating. The latter, however, could easily give rise to self-perpetuating disequilibrium situations. In both cases expectations play a crucial role in the adjustment process.     

A dynamic quantity adjustment process in a small open economy,and welfare effects of tariff changes

Considered an n-good small open economy where the technology is strictly convex and ad valorem tariffs are imposed. In this world it is known that the tariff-utility relationship may be perverse. The fact is known as the Vanek–Bhagwati Paradox. The source of the perversity is found in aggregate income effects. The present paper shows that D-stability of our dynamic system implies non-perverse aggregate income effects, and hence the non-perverse tariff-utility relationship.     

Financial attitudes,beliefs and behaviours: differences by age

One of the essential skills that people must acquire to function in our society is the ability to deal with money. This skill and the information necessary to use it are acquired mainly during childhood. There has been little research on when and how children acquire knowledge of money and the economic system in general or the degree to which family influence carries over into consumption activities as adults.¹ Little is known about how family financial decisions are made, what age people get involved with money, what kind of financial activities they partake in, which socialization agents have the most important influence on people's money beliefs, and how much and how families communicate about finances. The question of how these patterns have changed over the years also needs to be addressed. The focus of the marketing research has been on purchasing activity and on the socialization of the child. There has been much less work on socialization at later stages in the life cycle.² Reference to money personalities are frequently made in financial planning materials as useful information to effectively communicate with clients. No studies have explored if people in reality identify with any of the suggested money personalities. Similarly, little is known about buying behaviours and how they have changed over years.     

Promoting entrepreneurship to alleviate poverty in India: An overview of government schemes,private‐sector programs,and initiatives in the citizens' sector

In recent years, entrepreneurship has achieved significance as a driver of economic growth and poverty alleviation. This article focuses on various initiatives and entities that promote capacity building and entrepreneurship development among the poor in India and pays special attention to examining the ways in which these entities can better coordinate their efforts. The article first reviews the general literature on entrepreneurship and poverty eradication followed by a conceptual framework that models the efforts of the Indian government, the private sector, and the citizens' sector in promoting entrepreneurship and capacity building. This conceptual framework is utilized to discuss efforts of social entrepreneurs and self‐help groups (SHGs) in India as well as to present a general sectoral assessment of the poverty‐alleviation schemes in the subcontinent. The article's conclusions emphasize that neither markets alone nor governments alone are enough to eradicate poverty, especially in the Indian context. Instead, a trisectoral approach that recognizes the complementarities between the government, the private sector, and the citizens' sector and encourages these sectors to collaborate may be vital to the common goal of capacity building among India's poor. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Organizational innovation outcomes in SMEs: Effects of age,size, and sector

Innovation studies concentrate on factors contributing to innovation. However, governments seek clearer understanding of innovation outcomes in their appraisal of the costs and benefits of policies to promote innovation in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This study examines organizational innovation (OI) outcomes in SMEs. Based on company interviews and a mail survey, the findings reveal OI results in enhanced productivity, margin, market leadership, and working environments. However, OI does not lead to operational efficiency and employees’ retention. Organizational innovation leads to companies operating outside their core competency but does not have an adverse environmental impact. Organizational innovation has greater impact on small firms. The paper includes practical and theoretical implications.