The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news

We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news. Across most sectors, equity prices decrease in response to higher oil prices before the 2007/2008 crisis but increase after it. Positive oil price shocks cause a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against a broad range of currencies but have only a modest effect on bond futures returns. The evidence suggests that changes in risk premia help to explain the time-varying effect of oil price shocks on U.S. equity returns.     

Insider trading laws and price informativeness in emerging stock markets: The South African case

We test the view that insider trading deters informativeness and, thereby, provide empirical evidence on the ramifications of insider trading legislation, particularly in an emerging market, that has hitherto received no research attention. Using the difference-in-differences identification strategy, we find that “effective insider trading law” improves stock price informativeness, a reflection of market efficiency, and that this efficiency is robust to both economic factors that affect market efficiency and the choice of control. Importantly, our results support the hypothesis that prohibition of insider trading elicits efficiency enhancement, particularly in emerging markets which are often characterized by weaker requisite institutional infrastructure than developed markets.     

Syndicated loans in emerging markets

There has been a considerable expansion of the volume of syndicated loans in emerging markets in the recent years. We provide the first analysis of the determinants of the decision of banks to syndicate a loan on a sample of loan facilities from 50 emerging countries. We show the significant role of loan characteristics and of financial development, banking regulation, and legal institutions, in the decision to syndicate a loan. We support the efforts of authorities to increase banking competition and efficiency, and to implement binding banking regulation on capital requirement to promote the expansion of syndicated loans.     

Clustering in emerging equity markets

We consider pairwise tail behavior of return series for identifying the most important emerging markets clusters. Pairs of markets belonging to the same group present similar type and strength of interdependence during stressful times, represented by a common copula and a statistically equivalent measure of tail dependence. By collapsing data from d markets in to a group we overcome the difficult problem of finding their (higher dimensional) d-variate distribution. Results may help portfolio managers to deal with risk due to co-movements within clusters. We provide examples on how this can be done. Our study contributes to the discussion about the international association among stock markets during turbulent periods, and does not confirm the intuition that the observed association between extremes should be credited to linkages to leading markets. The study also confirms the importance of stock selection, particularly among the non-dominant stocks, instead of holding market-value weighed portfolios of stocks from countries within the same region.     

Currency risk in emerging equity markets

The paper develops an international capital asset-pricing model (ICAPM), which includes foreign currency risk, and examines the impact of capital market liberalisation on the pricing of risks. It applies the model to data from Pacific Basin financial markets and finds substantial evidence that not only currency risk is priced in both pre- and post-liberalisation periods, but the model is superior to one which does not include currency risk. This evidence suggests that an international capital asset-pricing model, which omits currency risk, will be misspecified. Furthermore, the results imply that since currency risk is priced and investors are compensated for bearing such risk they should not be discouraged by more flexible exchange rate regimes from investing in emerging markets.     

Board generational diversity in emerging markets

To identify the determinants of the generational diversity of board membership in emerging market firms, we conducted an empirical analysis using state-level social inequality indices and data on 14,598 listed/unlisted firms from 20 Eastern European countries and China. We found that, in these emerging markets, social inequality strongly inhibits the generational diversity of board membership, regardless of the gender of board members. The results also reveal that four firm attributes—board size, CEO duality, state ownership, and the presence of foreign investors from non-advanced economies as firm owners—significantly affect the age composition of board directors in line with our expectations. Two other firm attributes—ownership concentration and firm ownership by foreign investors from advanced economies—are also found to have a significant impact on board generational diversity; however, the direction of their impact contradicts our predictions. Supplementary estimations carried out by introducing various sample restrictions produce similar results, thus confirming the statistical robustness of our findings.     

Volatilities in emerging MENA stock markets

This article examines the interrelationships among the emerging stock markets of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, as well as the relationship between each MENA stock market and the larger and more developed markets of Europe and the United States. It explores whether MENA stock markets can offer international investors unique risk/return characteristics to diversify international and regional portfolios. This study adds to the existing literature by focusing—for the first time— on the dynamic relationships in the volatilities of the returns in MENA stock markets. The econometric part of the article uses the causality‐in‐variances GARCH model, the TARCH and ARCH‐M models, and VAR analysis to model conditional volatilities in stock market returns and the dynamic responses of volatilities to innovations in conditional variances. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Private equity exits in emerging markets

Using deal level data from 2733 private equity (PE) deals from 35 emerging markets, we find that PE fund managers have a higher probability of successful exits in countries with better business and legal environments. We also find that they are able to mitigate the potential costs associated with inefficient and corrupt business environments to increase the probability of exits by IPOs in countries with higher levels of corruption. Moreover, we find that market shocks in the developed markets result in a negative ripple effect as the probability of successful exits, especially by way of IPOs, decreases in emerging markets.     

The volatility effect in emerging markets

We examine the empirical relation between risk and return in emerging equity markets and find that this relation is flat, or even negative. This is inconsistent with theoretical models such as the CAPM, which predict a positive relation, but consistent with the results of studies for developed equity markets. The volatility effect appears to be growing stronger over time, which we argue might be related to the increased delegated portfolio management in emerging markets. Finally, we find that the volatility effect in emerging markets is only weakly related to that in developed equity markets, which argues against a common-factor explanation.     

Investing in Asia's emerging equity markets

Asian equity markets have been hot for some time and they show no dramatic signs of cooling. The economies of the region have moved towards greater economic and financial integration while opening their capital markets to foreigners. Attracted by strong economies, credible reforms and further intentions of liberalization, global investors have made significant investments. However, the stability promised by a financially strong Japan is diminishing, and the region as a whole faces a variety of political and financial challenges.     

Equity investment prospects in emerging markets

The Mexican debacle in late 1994 had a contagious, if short-lived impact on emerging markets. Evidence suggests that fund managers panicked and withdrew investments. Portfolio equity flows to emerging markets decreased by more than a third in 1995. The investor base shrank. The longterm case for investing in emerging markets is, however, very strong. Most of them are growing faster, some much faster, than developed countries, and are likely to yield higher returns on investment. By one estimate, emerging markets will increase their share of world stock market capitalization from 15 percent in 1995 to 45 percent in 2010. The article will review the trends in private capital flows and prospects for the future, focusing on opportunities in East Asia as an example. The author discusses the investment strategies that help explain the panic of 1995 and proposes a more analytical approach to investment in developed markets and the information needed to facilitate its adoption.     

移动网络运维中关键指标预警分析及验证

从关键指标的预警意义出发,通过分析研究提出了一种移动网络关键指标的预警分析 方法,并通过两种具有代表性的网络关键指标的现网数据进行验证,为运营商实现高质高效 的运维管理提供技术参考。     

The internationalization of emerging stock markets

Stock markets in developing countries today account for about 7 per cent of world equity market capitalization, and this share is rising rapidly. Foreign investors have in the past often faced restrictive barriers to access to these emerging markets. A growing number of developing countries have now started to dismantle these barriers, however, resulting in an increasing interest by international portfolio managers in these emerging stock markets.     

Tail-event driven NETwork dependence in emerging markets

This paper employs the Tail Event NETwork (TENET) to identify financial markets with greater potential risk, and simultaneously investigate the interdependence between them. We find strong time-varying connectedness across 23 emerging markets during the main crisis episodes, including the most recent COVID-19 pandemic, using data from January 1995 to May 2021. The network analysis revealed that emerging European markets are top risk transmitters, whereas emerging Asian markets are top risk receivers. China showed disconnection from the network, reflecting its diversification potential for investors. Our findings offer several policy and regulatory implications.     

Liquidity and macroeconomic management in emerging markets

Emerging markets have received considerable attention for foreign investment and international diversification due to the possibility of higher earnings and a low level of integration with global equity markets. These high returns often need to be balanced by the high liquidity costs of trading in illiquid emerging markets. Several studies have shown that central bank and government policies are significant determinants of market liquidity. We investigate the influence of monetary and fiscal policy variables on the market and firm level liquidity of eight emerging stock markets of Asia. Using four different (il)liquidity measures and nine macroeconomic variables, we find that changes in the money supply, government expenditure and private borrowing significantly affect stock market liquidity. Illiquidity is also strongly affected by the bank rate, short-term interest rate and government borrowing. We demonstrate that ‘crowding out’ and ‘cost of funds’ effects exist in these markets. Other major findings are that some markets are more sensitive to local macroeconomic news than world factors, the impact on size based portfolios largely depends on the instruments used by the central banks and government, the liquidity of the manufacturing sector is affected by changes in any policy variables, financial institutions are only influenced by monetary policy variables, and the service sector is least affected.     

Facing Risks and Investing in Emerging Markets

The art of investing is evolving into the science of investing. As new generations of increasingly scientific investment mangers come to the task, they wi11 rely more on analysis, process and structure than on intuition, advice and whim. This does not mean heroic investment insights are a thing of the past. It means that investors will increasingly capture and apply those insights in a     

Dealing with financial crises in emerging markets

Financial crises in emerging markets are a reality of doing business in these countries in the early twenty‐first century. Managers can gain some perspective on this problem from experiences of firms in crises that occurred in Mexico, Thailand, and Russia during the 1990s. We show how firms have taken steps to protect themselves against financial crises and to deal with the crises once underway in these three countries. Such strategies are divided into frameworks of: short‐term, immediate responses to a crisis; intermediate steps during the period of economic downturn; and long‐term continuing responses for operating in emerging markets. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

An explosion time characterization of asset price bubbles

In a standard continuous time asset pricing model, this paper provides an explosion time characterization of asset price bubbles that extends the existing characterization theorems in the literature from diffusion processes to general semimartingales (which can include jumps). This characterization has a nice economic interpretation, not emphasized in the existing literature.     

Smuggling in emerging markets: Global implications

Economists and policymakers have lauded the adoption of liberal trade policies in many of the emerging markets. From the outside it may appear that governments in these countries have cemented a new set of rules governing economic behavior within their borders. Yet the authors have found that these countries are likely to see the emergence or resurgence of smuggling and contraband distribution in response to trade liberalization. In order to survive under trade liberalization, smugglers will rely on cost savings associated with the circumventing of legal import channels. In addition they may employ violence to bolster a diminished competitive advantage and may seek new illegal sources, both local and international, for the consumer products they distribute. In a market environment in which organized crime competes alongside more legitimate channels of distribution, U.S. multinationals will face new challenges relating to strategic planning, maintaining alliance relationships and corporate control of global brands and pricing.