Exchange Rate Regime and Demand for Reserves: Evidence from Kenya,Mexico and Philippines

This paper empirically investigates the demand for international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) during fixed and floating exchange rates periods in three developing countries: Kenya, Mexico and Philippines. Based on theoretical models, three factors are identified as important for the demand of international reserves and foreign reserves: average propensity to import, volume of imports and variability of reserves. The paper employs the cointegration methodology and error correction method to investigate the relationships. Cointegration tests results indicate a reliable long-run stationary relationship between the international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) and the stated explanatory variables across countries and sub-periods of fixed and clean float. The error correction results indicate causality from the explanatory variables to the reserves during both the short and long run. This is true during both the fixed and the floating periods.

对中国国际贸易与FDI相互关系的重新检验

自从Mundell（1957）首次正式探讨国际贸易和FDI（外国直接投资）之间的关系并提出“替代模型”以来，已有众多学者相继提出了“互补关系论”、“不确定性关系论”和“一体化关系论”等各种其他理论。为检验国际贸易与FDI相互关系在中国的实际情况，本文采用协整检验的方法，分别运用外资企业数据、全国数据以及江苏省数据重新检验了国际贸易与FDI之间的长期相互关系。实证结果表明，外资企业的国际贸易与FDI之间存在长期稳定的相互促进关系，基于全国数据的国际贸易与FDI之间没有相互促进关系，基于江苏省数据的国际贸易和FDI之间只具有单向促进作用。本文在解释上述实证结果原因的基础上，给出了相关结论和启示。     

欧洲主权债务危机的内生性与外生性研究

南欧成员国社会福利过度造成的财政支出扩张与经济停滞导致的财政收入收缩是欧洲主权债务危机的内生性成因。美国因素是欧洲主权债务危机的重要外生性解释变量。美国试图通过债务危机打压欧元是为了巩固美元的全球霸权。即使欧洲主权债务危机在短期内对于欧元产生了一定的冲击,但在长期仍有可能造就一个更强大的欧元。     

Sovereign credit spreads and the composition of the government budget

This paper investigates the relationship between sovereign credit spreads and the composition of the government budget. The key result of this paper is that governments that invest more and spend less on consumption have significantly lower sovereign credit spreads. This finding is in accordance with the endogenous growth theory, which predicts a positive impact of government investment and a negative impact of government consumption on the long-term growth rate. Finally, a broader tax base significantly reduces sovereign credit spreads. A possible explanation may be that governments with more tax receipts are less likely to have liquidity problems to finance their debt charges.     

Sovereign credit spreads and the composition of the government budget

This paper investigates the relationship between sovereign credit spreads and the composition of the government budget. The key result of this paper is that governments that invest more and spend less on consumption have significantly lower sovereign credit spreads. This finding is in accordance with the endogenous growth theory, which predicts a positive impact of government investment and a negative impact of government consumption on the long-term growth rate. Finally, a broader tax base significantly reduces sovereign credit spreads. A possible explanation may be that governments with more tax receipts are less likely to have liquidity problems to finance their debt charges.     

International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views,Theory and Evidence

This paper compares the importance of precautionary and mercantilist motives in the hoarding of international reserves by developing countries. Overall, empirical results support precautionary motives; in particular, a more liberal capital account regime increases international reserves. Theoretically, large precautionary demand for international reserves arises as a self-insurance to avoid costly liquidation of long-term projects when the economy is susceptible to sudden stops. The welfare gain from the optimal management of international reserves is of a first-order magnitude, reducing the welfare cost of liquidity shocks from a first-order to a second-order magnitude.

Insurance Underwriter or Financial Development Fund: What Role for Reserve Pooling in Latin America?

The accumulation of international reserves by emerging markets raises the question of how to best utilize these funds. This paper explores two routes through which the pooling of reserves could enhance stability and welfare. First, the reserve pool could be used for emergency lending in response to sudden stops. Second, a portion of the reserve pool along with borrowed funds could be used to purchase contingent debt securities issued by governments and corporations, helping to solve the first-mover problem that limits the liquidity of markets in these instruments and hinders their acceptance by private investors. This paper argues that the second option is more likely to be feasible and productive.

我国宏观税收负担水平的选择和优化

政府税收收入规模过小难以保证其履行职能的资金需要,而政府税收收入规模过大又会抑制经济的发展,因此科学理性地确定一国的宏观税收负担水平显得尤为重要。本文分析了宏观税收负担水平的影响因素,借鉴国际经验,结合我国国情,就如何界定我国宏观税收负担水平及其优化途径提供了相关的建议。     

论日本的主权债务问题

由于连续两个"失去的10年"和长期的财政赤字政策,日本的主权债务规模不断累积,主权债务负担显著加重,无论用财政赤字/GDP比例还是用债务余额/GDP比例测度,日本的主权债务问题都极其严重。虽然币种结构、期限结构和债权人结构与已经出现主权债务危机的欧洲国家相比都相对合理,但如果不加以治理,在可以预期的未来,日本有可能爆发严重的主权债务危机。     

从欧债危机看“中国式主权债务危机”

近年来,我国地方政府投融资平台数目众多,地方政府债务迅速膨胀。通过比较分析欧洲主权债务与中国式主权债务,本文发现尽管两者有诸多相似之处,但却存在本质上的区别。虽然我国并不具备爆发欧洲式主权债务危机的相关条件,但仍存在爆发中国式主权债务危机的隐患。     

Reconsidering Consumption Risk Sharing among OECD Countries: Some Evidence Based on Panel Cointegration

In this paper we provide a characterization of international consumption risk sharing among a sample of OECD countries based on panel cointegration and error-correction techniques. Our results indicate that around 30% of idiosyncratic consumption risks are shared in the short run. In the long run, however, only about 10% of idiosyncratic consumption risks are shared internationally. In addition, we find that countries characterized by relatively high foreign asset and liability positions are less exposed to shocks. Moreover, the time it takes until idiosyncratic shocks exert their full impact on consumption crucially depends on the foreign asset and liability position.

汇改后人民币汇率波动特性的实证分析

文章采用GARCH族模型对2005年7月人民币汇率形成机制改革后人民币汇率的波动性进行了研究,发现人民币兑主要货币汇率的日收益率均具有典型的金融时间序列尖峰厚尾的统计特征,且除人民币／日元汇率外,对其它主要货币的名义汇率均存在波动聚集效应。文章认为,由于我国外汇市场仍然不够完善,具有一定的投机性,人民币汇率变化因此具有一定的群体行为性而表现出波动的聚集效应,中央银行应采取灵活干预的策略,把握汇率制度改革的节奏。     

国际产业转移的趋势、优化效应及我国对策

进入新世纪以来,国际产业转移出现了不可阻挡的新趋势。通过国际产业转移对我国产业结构优化效应的分析,发现国际产业转移对我国产业结构优化升级的贡献不明显。为此,应紧紧抓住全球产业转移的契机,结合国际产业转移新趋势与我国产业结构现存的主要问题,制定和实施相应对策,以利用国际产业转移来推动我国产业结构的优化升级。     

纽约股票市场对中国A股市场的影响

首先，本文考察了纽约股市波动对中国A股市场的影响。一般认为，中国的A股市场由于严格的资本控制而免受外国影响。但是，通过月度、每周、每日的样本数据（1992年到2004年），经过季节性调整和汇率变动调整后，我们发现上海和深圳A股市场的变动与美国股票价格指数变动相一致。其次，我们考察国家贝塔值（country beta）在马尔可夫转换误差修正模型中的动态关系。对中国市场来说，国家贝塔值和错误纠正项的重要性紧密相连。在东亚金融危机之前，美国市场对中国A股市场的影响普遍存在，而东亚金融危机产生后，则是通过国家贝塔值来影响中国股市的收益。     

浅析中国持有美国国债的必然性及适度性

2010年3月,中国一改此前几个月连续大规模减持美国国债之举,再度增持177亿美元美国国债,引发了社会各界对此举的争议。本文在全面分析美国国债的分类及主要境外持有者的基础上,深入剖析了在当前的政治经济背景下,我国增持美国国债的必然性,提出配比适度性原则,以此防范外汇储备减值风险,并对我国高额外汇储备的出路提出了相应的建议。     

Estimating variability in the Italian stock market: An ARCH approach

The variability of financial markets has become the focus of considerable interest, especially over the past decade. In this study, ARCH models are applied to the Italian stock market, at both general and sectoral levels, to identify the processes generating variances and to test whether the variances are explainable by an autoregressive equation. The predictive power of the estimated equations has been evaluated by comparing them with forecasts obtained from alternative estimation techniques. The outcome supports the idea of an autoregressive structure for the variances and a hyperreactive behavior of the Italian stock market to the arrival of destabilizing news.     

International Risk Sharing and Government Moral Hazard

This paper analyzes incentive problems caused by international risk sharing. They arise because international risk sharing contributes to the insurance of domestic consumption and thus lowers governments’ incentives to increase output. We show that the resulting distortions can lead to substantial efficiency losses. Complete risk sharing is, therefore, undesirable and the optimal degree of risk sharing may be low. Furthermore, we show that households’ risk sharing decisions are socially inefficient and are effectively maximizing government moral hazard. As a result, financial innovation and integration may reduce welfare by increasing households’ risk sharing opportunities.

蔬菜价格波动特征研究——基于ARCH类模型分析

利用ARCH类模型研究蔬菜价格波动特征问题。结果表明:18种蔬菜具有价格波动集簇性和异方差性,其中冬瓜等6种蔬菜的价格具有显著的异方差效应和波动集簇性。GARCH模型表明6种蔬菜的价格波动都具有显著地集簇性,按价格波动持续性强弱比较,冬瓜、大白菜、土豆、洋葱的价格波动持续性强于青椒和生姜;GARCH-M模型表明只有土豆和生姜具有高风险高回报的特征;TARCH和EARCH模型表明6中蔬菜都具有显著的非对称效应,其中除洋葱和青椒以外,其他4种蔬菜两个模型的非对称效应都使得价格波动减小。