Financial liberalization,openness and convergence

All industrialized nations relied on capital account controls for significant periods of their economic development and relaxations of capital account restrictions thought to be an integral aspect of economic development. Economists long advocated the removal of capital controls as a stabilizing factor of the development process to improve efficiency and return economies from distorted factor prices to production frontiers. Empirically, however, financial liberalizations have become associated with capital flow reversals, where initial capital inflows at the onset are subsequently offset by capital outflows resulting in higher levels of accumulated indebtedness. We investigate how capital flow reversals caused by financial liberalizations affect the speed of convergence of an economy. We show that financial liberalizations reduce short run convergence speeds, implying that open economies should experience significantly less output volatility but also longer transitions. The increased smoothness in response to initial shocks comes at a cost: as foreign borrowing rises to smooth domestic income fluctuations causing an increase in the domestic interest rate OECD data confirms our findings.     

The term structure of systematic and idiosyncratic risk

We study the term structure of variance (total risk), systematic, and idiosyncratic risk. Consistent with the expectations hypothesis, we find that, for the entire market, the slope of the term structure of variance is mainly informative about the path of future variance. Thus, there is little indication of a time-varying term premium. Turning the focus to individual stocks, we cannot reject the expectations hypothesis for systematic variance, but we strongly reject it for idiosyncratic variance. Our results are robust to jumps and potential statistical biases.     

Financial liberalization and remittances: Recent panel evidence

We investigate the impact of financial liberalization on remittances to 84 countries over the period 1986–2005. Explicitly accounting for the multidimensionality of financial reform, we find that the various dimensions impact remittances differently: Increased economic freedom in the financial sector, as captured by absence of direct government control over the allocation of credit, has a positive and immediate impact. However, the improved robustness of financial markets, as captured by the development of security markets, improvement in the quality of banking supervision, and removal of stringent restrictions on interest rates and international capital, has a negative and lagged effect. The net combined effect reveals that financial liberalization may have a modest negative impact on remittances in the long run.     

Financial liberalization and banking crises in emerging economies

Financial liberalization often leads to financial crises. This link has usually been attributed to poorly designed banking systems, an explanation that is largely static. In this paper we develop a dynamic explanation, by modelling the evolution of a newly-liberalized bank's opportunities and incentives to take on risk over time. The model reveals that even if a banking system is well-designed, in the sense of having good long-run properties, many countries will enjoy an initial period of rapid, low-risk growth and then enter a period with an elevated risk of banking crisis. This transition emerges because of the way in which the degree of foreign competition, the marginal product of capital, and the bank's own net worth simultaneously evolve.     

Foreign exchange market liberalization and the international diversification of borrowing by Italian firms

In this article we try to assess the relative importance of real and financial determinants in firm's foreign currency borrowing by extending a model earlier developed by Kawai. We use this framework to examine the behavior of Italian firms during the 1980s. The financial components of firm's decisions are studied by means of a repeated mean-variance portfolio model based on ex ante expectation. We show that (a) the invoice currencies seem to be a good indicator of firm's real exchange risk; and (b) even at times of capital controls, corporate debt policy was affected by financial variables. The latter will become increasingly important as European financial integration moves on.     

Financial liberalization,prudential supervision,and the onset of banking crises

We examine what is perceived as one of the main culprits in the occurrence of banking crises: financial liberalization. As is typically argued, if liberalization is accompanied by insufficient prudential supervision of the banking sector, it will result in excessive risk taking by financial intermediaries and a subsequent crisis. Having evaluated the empirical validity of this hypothesis, we conclude that such a development is, at worse, only a medium run threat to the health of the banking sector. We find that a more immediate danger is the loss of monopoly power that liberalization typically entails. We base our conclusions on an empirical investigation of a panel-probit model of the occurrence of banking crises using macro-economic, institutional and political data.     

Telecom market liberalization and service performance outcomes of an incumbent monopoly

Using data from a high-income, emerging market economy in the Middle East, this study examines changes in service performance outcomes of an incumbent monopoly during different periods in the phased liberalization of the country’s telecommunications market. The study draws on Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) theory and Social Exchange Theory (SET) to develop hypotheses about expected changes in four customer-based service performance outcomes—service quality perceptions, customer satisfaction, customer loyalty, and customer attitudes. These are tested using data collected in a longitudinal tracking study spanning different periods in the liberalization process. Results show that all four performance outcomes improved significantly during an early post-liberalization period when there was only one additional competitor in the market, but declined slightly during a later period when a second competitor entered the market. However, structural relationships among the outcomes themselves remained invariant across liberalization periods. Policy-making and theoretical implications of the results are outlined and discussed. Although the data come from a single industry in an emerging market economy, a particularly key implication is that while incumbent monopolies may initially harbor a preference for the comfort and ‘freedom’ that comes with being the only player in the market, under certain circumstances liberalization can actually benefit them through the impetus that it provides for their own service quality improvements.     

A resource perspective on internationalization responses to market liberalization

This paper explores the impact of market liberalization on the value of firm resources, using the case of Argentina. It is argued that these policies change the environment such that firms are forced to adapt their organizational domain, in specific by broadening it to include international customers. A model is then developed and tested to explain which resources should gain vs. lose value as one moves from selling just domestically to selling internationally.     

Financial market crisis and financial market channel

Before a new financial architecture can be established in the wake of the financial crisis, the increasing importance of the global financial market channel must be fully understood. This importance was illustrated by the unexpectedly strong dampening effects of the financial crisis on the real economy and by the worldwide contagion of the crisis, including its spreading to emerging market economies that were macroeconomically stable. This article argues that the financial sphere is gaining in importance over the real sphere and that the impact of global financial determinants on economic activity is growing ever stronger. The keys to dealing with this change are greater transparency, stronger incentive structures and a stronger regulatory and supervisory framework.     

市场条件与商品房市场的量价关系

引言 房价和交易量是房地产市场上两个非常重要的变量.然而,由于数据样本的限制,国内相关研究还不多见.     

Financial market volatility

The volatility of financial markets has attracted a lot of attention in recent years. However, while particular episodes, such as the bond market turbulence in 1994 and considerable exchange rate movements in 1995, may give the impression that markets have become more volatile, there appears to have been no systematic increase in volatility over the last 20 years in major industrialised countries.     

Financial liberalization,structural change,and real exchange rate appreciations

The last twenty years have witnessed periods of sustained appreciations of the real exchange rate in emerging economies. The case of Mexico between 1988 and 2002 is representative of several episodes in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe in which countries opening to capital flows experienced large appreciations accompanied by a significant reallocation of workers towards the non-tradable sector. We account for these facts using a two sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with frictions to labor reallocation and two driving forces: (i) A decline in the cost of borrowing in foreign markets, and (ii) differential productivity growth across sectors. These two mechanisms account together for 60% of the decline in the domestic relative price of tradables in Mexico and for a large fraction of the observed reallocation of labor across sectors. The decline in the interest rate faced by Mexico in international markets is quantitatively the most important channel. Our results are robust to the inclusion of terms of trade into the model.     

Financial liberalization, structural change, and real exchange rate appreciations

The last twenty years have witnessed periods of sustained appreciations of the real exchange rate in emerging economies. The case of Mexico between 1988 and 2002 is representative of several episodes in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe in which countries opening to capital flows experienced large appreciations accompanied by a significant reallocation of workers towards the non-tradable sector. We account for these facts using a two sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with frictions to labor reallocation and two driving forces: (i) A decline in the cost of borrowing in foreign markets, and (ii) differential productivity growth across sectors. These two mechanisms account together for 60% of the decline in the domestic relative price of tradables in Mexico and for a large fraction of the observed reallocation of labor across sectors. The decline in the interest rate faced by Mexico in international markets is quantitatively the most important channel. Our results are robust to the inclusion of terms of trade into the model.     

The forward pricing function of the shipping freight futures market

This article investigates the unbiasedness hypothesis of futures prices in the freight futures market. Being the only market whose underlying asset is a service, it sets it apart from other markets investigated so far in the literature. Cointegration techniques, employed to examine this hypothesis, indicate that futures prices one and two months before maturity are unbiased forecasts of the realized spot prices, whereas a bias exists in the three-months futures prices. This mixed evidence is in agreement with studies in other markets and suggests that the acceptance or rejection of unbiasedness depends on the idiosyncrasies of the market under investigation and on the time to maturity of the contract. Despite the existence of a bias in the three-months prices, futures prices for all maturities are found to provide forecasts of the realized spot prices that are superior to forecasts generated from error correction, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and random walk models. Hence it appears that users of the BIFFEX market receive accurate signals from the futures prices (regarding the future course of cash prices) and can use the information generated by these prices to guide their physical market decisions. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 353–376, 1999     

Financial liberalization and money demand in Peru: Implications for monetary policy

In 1990 a process of financial liberalization was begun in Peru with the aim of achieving economic stability and sustained development. Due to the economic policies that had been applied throughout the second half of the 1980s, this took place in a context of hyperinflation and financial repression. This article examines the effects that financial liberalization has had on the demand for real balances in Peru and discusses the implications for the conduct of monetary policy.     

Upgrade pricing, market growth, and social welfare

This paper studies the monopolist's dynamic pricing strategy when introducing successive generations of a durable product. We show that when consumers are semi-anonymous or exactly identified and the innovation is minor, the firm always offers an upgrade discount to former customers. However, the discount depends only on the quality of the old product. In contrast, for moderate and major innovations, the discount depends on the qualities and costs of both the old and the new products. The market growth rate affects the firm's pricing strategy only if consumers are anonymous; furthermore, the effect on prices depends on the discount rate and whether the market growth rate is high or low. For minor innovations, social welfare is maximized if consumers are anonymous. An interesting and paradoxical result is that, when innovations are moderate or major and consumers are semi-anonymous or exactly identified, price discrimination can actually lead to higher social welfare.     

Financial liberalization and stock markets efficiency: New evidence from emerging economies

This paper aims to assess the impact of financial liberalization on the degree of informational efficiency in emerging stock markets while considering three types of financial crises, i.e. banking, currency and twin crises. To this end, a treatment effects model with time-varying parameters is estimated for 13 emerging economies from January 1986 to December 2008. Empirical results show that there is a greater efficiency in recent years and that financial liberalization not only improves the degree of efficiency but also reduces the probability of financial crises. They also suggest that improving efficiency depends upon several internal characteristics.     

Derivatives pricing with liquidity risk

This paper develops a novel, general derivative pricing model which introduces a liquidity risk factor. The model variants we outline offer a sufficient degree of flexibility so as to enable the valuation of various types of derivative classes including futures, American options, and mortgage backed security options, whereas existing derivative models can only price liquidity risk in European derivatives. We validate the model with oil and gold futures data and compare it to a classical benchmark model void of any liquidity risk. We find that our model is significantly more accurate than the classical model for pricing both oil and gold contracts.