Detecting time-variation in corporate bond index returns: A smooth transition regression model

This paper investigates the time-varying corporate bond index returns in a multi-factor smooth transition regression model. We find that expected index returns vary between weak and strong economic regimes, where the transition from one regime to the other is governed by the 3-quartered growth of industrial production. Weak economic regimes are characterized by low growth of industrial production, vice versa for strong economic regimes. Further, risk factor sensitivities are generally more negative in strong economic regimes than in weak regimes, implying that index returns are low when economic conditions are good and high when economic conditions are poor.     

On the nonlinear relationship between energy use and CO2 emissions within an EKC framework: Evidence from panel smooth transition regression in the MENA region

This paper proposes a new approach for analyzing the dynamic relationships between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, energy use, and income for the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Our study implements a class of regime-switching models, namely a nonlinear panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) framework. Two kinds of estimates for carbon emissions are provided. On the one hand, we measure the impact of energy consumption on CO₂ concerning the level of income per capita, as countries with a similar energy usage level would have different levels of energy intensity. On the other hand, we estimate the impact of output growth on emissions concerning energy usage variation, as a higher economic growth does not necessarily mean energy-intensive activities. Our empirical findings support these intuitions as they indicate that pollutant emissions respond nonlinearly to energy consumption and GDP growth. We find an inverted U-shaped pattern for the impact of energy on CO₂, in the sense that environmental degradation is declining beyond a given income threshold, which is estimated endogenously within the PSTR model. Also, our results underscore that GDP growth significantly impacts carbon emissions only for higher energy consumption growth.     

Efficiency of the silver futures market: An empirical study using daily data

This paper investigates whether the silver futures market is efficient with respect to the information contained in the time series of daily price changes. An analysis of the serial correlation of returns on silver futures supports the hypothesis that successive price changes are independent. However, a series of first and second order Markov chain models built using the direction as well as the magnitude of price change, reveals some short-term dependence. This result regarding the non-independence of successive price changes is reinforced by an analysis of upward and downward cycles, and by the extraordinary profits generated by using mechanical filter rules. The conclusion of this study is that the silver futures market does not seem to be efficient even in the weak form and that astute traders and investors can make modest excess risk-adjusted returns by using appropriate trading strategies.     

An empirical model for durations in stocks

This paper considers an extension of the univariate autoregressive conditional duration model to which durations from a second stock are added. The model is empirically used to study duration dependence in four traded stocks, Nordea, Föreningssparbanken, Handelsbanken and SEB A on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. The stocks are all active in the banking sector. It is found that including durations from a second stock may add explanatory power to the univariate model. We also find that spread changes have significant effect for all series.     

European capital market integration: An empirical study based on a European asset pricing model

This paper investigates the integration between the capital markets of 15 European countries, all of which are members of the European Union. Integration is tested under the joint hypothesis of a European multifactor asset pricing model. A European portfolio is constructed from which common factors are extracted using maximum likelihood factor analysis. Empirical tests are undertaken to determine whether these European factors are not only priced, but also equally priced across the European capital markets. The results show that a number of common factors are extracted from the European portfolio and a degree of capital market integration is shown to exist across the European capital markets.     

The effect of size on the failure probabilities of SMEs: An empirical study on the US market using discrete hazard model

This paper investigates the extent to which the size affects the SME probabilities of bankruptcy. Using a dataset of (11,117) US non-financial firms, of which (465) filed for insolvency under chapters 7/11 between 1980 and 2013. We forecast the bankruptcy probabilities by developing four discrete-time duration-dependent hazard models for SMEs, Micro, Small, and Medium firms. A comparison of the default prediction models for medium firms and SMEs suggests that an almost identical set of explanatory variables affect the default probabilities leading us to believe that treating each of these groups separately has no material impact on the decision making process. However, comparisons between the micro and small firms with the SMEs firms strongly suggest that these categories need to be considered separately when modelling their credit risk.     

On the effects of uncertainty measures on sustainability indices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework

This study investigates the effects of uncertainty measures on the dynamics of sustainability indices across different regions of the globe in the post-crisis period. The analysis is conducted under a multivariate Nonlinear Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (NARDL) framework. The results suggest that besides contributing to the Sustainable Development Goals, sustainability indices may serve as valuable tools to investors, asset managers and other stakeholders to dampen and/or offset the negative impacts of local and global measures of uncertainty, depending on the analyzed region. Other implications and an agenda for future research are also discussed.     

An empirical study of the value-relevance of using proportionate consolidation accounting for investments in joint ventures

This research examines bond risk premiums to determine whether creditors of companies with investments in joint ventures reflect legal or implicit measures of the debts of joint ventures. The legal view suggests that the amount of potential loss from an investment in a joint venture is limited to the investment. The implicit view suggests that the operations of the joint venture and the venturer are interdependent. Equity method accounting reflects the legal view and proportionate consolidation reflects the implicit view.The study examines whether bond risk premiums are more highly associated with accounting numbers from proportionate consolidation than equity method accounting. The study uses data from 10Ks, the Wall Street Journal, and Moody's Bond Record from May 1, 1995 through April 30, 1998. These 4 years are used because US interest rates were fairly stable during this period, which is an important factor when examining bond risk premiums. Additionally, the companies in the study needed to remain stable across the window of study – no mergers, acquisitions, buy-outs, or liquidations – in order to maintain a comparative sample over the entire time period. The risk premium model uses measures of default that change between equity method accounting and proportionate consolidation. Differences in the explanatory power of the model determine how creditors view the joint venture debts.The study shows that approximately half of equity investments represent investments in joint ventures. Furthermore, the average joint venture uses debt to finance about two-thirds of the assets. The results show that proportionate consolidation fails to improve the explanatory power of the model when examining the entire set of companies that invest in joint ventures. However, the data reject the null hypothesis of no improvement with proportionate consolidation when examining companies who guarantee the debt of their joint venture. The policy implication of this study indicates that a change to proportionate consolidation would provide more value-relevant information to creditors when companies guarantee the debt of the joint venture.     

An empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model proposed in Ohlson (Ohlson, J.A., 1995. Earnings, book values and dividends in security valuation. Contemporary Accounting Research 11, 661–687). We point out that existing empirical research relying on Ohlson's model is similar to past research relying explicitly on the dividend-discounting model. We establish that the key original empirical implications of Ohlson's model stem from the information dynamics that link current information to future residual income. Our empirical results generally support Ohlson's information dynamics. However, we find that our empirical implementation of Ohlson's model provides only minor improvements over existing attempts to implement the dividend-discounting model by capitalizing short-term earnings' forecasts in perpetuity.     

An empirical study of observational learning

This article provides an empirical examination of observational learning. Using data from an online market for music, I find that observational learning benefits consumers, producers of high‐quality music, and the online platform. I also study the role of pricing as a friction to the learning process by comparing outcomes under demand‐based pricing to counterfactual pricing schemes. I find that employing a fixed price (the industry standard) can hamper learning by reducing the incentive to experiment, resulting in less consumer surplus, but more expected revenue for the platform.     

Range-based multivariate volatility model with double smooth transition in conditional correlation

This paper proposes a multivariate model named Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation Conditional Autoregressive Range (DSTCC-CARR for short). Determined by two transition variables, the correlations smoothly transit from one state to another. Together with the DSTCC-GARCH model, the model is employed to investigate the interdependence between Hong Kong's and international stock markets. It is proved by the empirical analysis that the DSTCC-CARR model is more credible and efficient than the DSTCC-GARCH model. Linkages among Hong Kong's and other world's markets captured by these two models are testified to be consistent with history, and have meaningful interpretations.     

Antitakeover devices and management efficiency: An empirical study using accounting measures

Separation of corporate ownership and control creates an environment whereby the agent (management) may pursue self-interests at the expense of the principal (stockholders). One mechanism protecting stockholders from self-interested management is the market for corporate control, or the takeover market. Antitakeover devices impede the operations of this market. This paper reports on the study of one type of antitakeover device, the supermajority nonfair price amendment. This device is particularly onerous, and if antitakeover devices do protect inefficient management as has been alluded to in the literature, then evidence of inefficiency should be observable for companies adopting supermajority nonfair price amendments.To test the above proposition, we examine the difference in performance over a seven-year period (1) Between firms having supermajority nonfair price amendments and a set of matched firms that do not have these devices, and (2) between firms with these amendments and their respective industries. In both tests, performance was lower for the firms adopting these amendments, which suggests that these devices are used to protect inefficient management. Further, the argument that managers of firms which adopt antitakeover devices so that they can take a long-term outlook at the expense of short-term profitability was not supported by the data.     

A performance measure for mutual funds using the Connor-Korajczyk methodology: An empirical study

This article examines the performance of a sample of bond, stock, and balanced funds. Close attention is paid to the bond versus equity composition of the mutual funds and how this asset composition affects the performance measure. This research includes the period from January 1977 through March 1984. The results of the analysis show that none of these mutual funds categories has outperformed the market. Fund managers in this sample are unable to predict security prices consistently to warrant the associated costs. In addition, the “goodness of fit” varied significantly between the types of funds examined.     

An empirical test of the variance gamma option pricing model

In this paper, we test the three-parameter symmetric variance gamma (SVG) option pricing model and the four-parameter asymmetric variance gamma (AVG) option pricing model empirically. Prices of the Hang Seng Index call options, which are of European style, are used as the data for the empirical test. Since the variance gamma option pricing model is developed for the pricing of European options, the empirical test gives a more conclusive answer than previous papers, which used American option data to the applicability of the VG models. The present study uses a large number of intraday option data, which span over a period of 3 years. Synchronous option and futures data are used throughout the study. Pairwise comparisons between the accuracy of model prices are carried out using both parametric and nonparametric methods.The conclusion is that the VG option pricing model performs marginally better than the Black–Scholes (BS) model. Under the historical approach, the VG models can moderately iron out some of the systematic biases inherent in the BS model. However, under the implied approach, the VG models continue to exhibit predictable biases and its overall performance in pricing and hedging is still far less than desirable.     

An empirical investigation of the two-factor Brennan-Schwartz term structure model

This paper studies the pricing behaviors of default-free bonds based on the two-factor model by Brennan and Schwartz (1979), where a short-term spot rate and a long-term consol rate are the state variables. The logarithm of these two factors is assumed to follow a linear transformation of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. An exact discrete time model is derived to estimate the parameters in the process. The model prices are then numerically solved. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the long-rate process, especially the long-rate volatility parameter, is important in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.     

Dynamic asymmetries in house price cycles: A generalized smooth transition model

In this paper we propose a novel nonlinear model to capture asymmetries in real estate cycles. The approach involves a particular parametrization of the transition function used in the transition equation of a smooth transition autoregressive model which improves the fit in the non-central probability region. The dynamic symmetry in house price cycles is strongly rejected for the housing markets taken into consideration. Further, our results show that the proposed model performs well in a out of sample forecasting exercise.     

交叉上市的资本成本效应之实证研究

交叉上市的资本成本效应是从公司理财角度研究交叉上市的核心领域。本文以截止2008年6月30日在内地、纽约与香港交叉上市的11家中国公司为样本,分别采用CAPM和Gordon模型估算分析公司在内地、纽约和香港三个市场的资本成本,结果表明:(1)在A股市场CAPM模型下的资本成本要高于Gordon模型下的资本成本,而在N股市场和H股市场,结果相反;(2)采用CAPM模型与Gordon模型均证明公司在A股市场的资本成本(β系数)低于其在N股和H股市场的资本成本。A股市场较低的资本成本反映出我国股票市场对投资者利益保护不足,我国股票市场亟需加强对投资者利益的保护。     

An empirical study on the regulated Chinese agricultural commodity futures market based on skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model

This paper describes the regulated agricultural commodity futures market of China, focusing on six actively traded futures: corn, strong gluten wheat, No. 1 soybean, soymeal, cotton, and white sugar. A novel skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model is employed to characterize price dynamics with government controls. The empirical analysis reveals significant skew phenomena in these six futures and indicates that the price dynamics are influenced by state policy. The observed skew phenomena are most notable in grain futures, with relatively weaker, but statistically significant, evidence of skew phenomena in oilseed and soft futures markets. In addition, generalized quasi-likelihood ratio tests show that the skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model is superior to the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model.     

Stock selection using a multi-factor model - empirical evidence from the French stock market

Using a Barra-type factor model, we have attempted to determine whether it is possible to beat the benchmark by taking advantage of anomalies established in the financial empirical literature. More specifically we have built an equity premium model based on three sets of factors (accounting variables, stock market characteristics and sector indicators) using a Bayesian method corrected for heteroscedasticity to estimate risk premiums, a technique that takes agents' learning into account. The results are encouraging: first, the factors that carried most weight on the equity premiums corroborated the results of empirical studies described in the financial literature, secondly, the portfolios constructed from our methodology and simulated outside our sample, returned higher performance than the benchmark and rewarded the supplement of volatility.     

Valuation of human assets in a securities brokerage firm: An empirical study

When a service firm is acquired by another firm there is often a significant premium paid over the acquired firm's book value. Often a substantial portion of this premium is due to the value of the human assets acquired. This paper presents a methodology by which the value of the human assets may be determined separate and distinct from goodwill. This is then applied to a case study in a securities brokerage firm. Finally, an amortization schedule is set forth so the asset can be amortized for tax purposes.