有效市场假设和行为金融学--关于资本市场效率的理论

本文是对资本市场效率问题研究的一个简要回顾和介绍。资本市场效率决定了资本配置、使用的效率,因此是金融经济学的一个主要组成部分。芝加哥商学院教授法玛1970年正式提出有效市场假说(EMH),认为股票价格包含了所有相关信息因而是有效的。在此后很长一段时间内,EMH成为现代金融学的基石。但是近年来,越来越多的理论和实证的发现表明,市场是非有效的。这些理论和实证发现形成了对资本市场效率的新认识—行为金融学。     

The impact of individual and institutional investor sentiment on the market price of risk

We examine the effect of individual and institutional investor sentiment on the market price of risk derived from DJIA and S&P500 index returns. Consistent with behavioral asset pricing models, we find significant positive response of rational sentiment suggesting greater incentive for rational investors to engage in arbitrage when the compensation for taking risk is greater. Further, an increase in irrational optimism leads to a significant downward movement, but an increase in rational sentiment does not lead to a significant change market price of risk. These results are robust for both market indexes, DJIA and S&P500 and for both individual and institutional investor sentiment.     

Impact of investor sentiment on mutual fund risk taking and performance: evidence from China

ABSTRACT

This study provides empirical rationale and guidance for incorporating investor sentiment into mutual fund enterprise information systems. It investigates the effect of fund-specific investor sentiment on fund risk taking and performance. Working on a sample of equity funds in China, our panel regressions reveal that fund risk-taking is negatively related to lagged fund-specific investor sentiment. Investor sentiment is negatively linked to subsequent fund performance, which conforms with the dumb money effect. Encouragingly, there is evidence that mutual fund managers in China possess investing expertise. Fund-specific investor sentiment shows asymmetric impacts. The dumb money effect is primarily driven by positive sentiment.     

Forecasting abnormal stock returns and trading volume using investor sentiment: Evidence from online search

We examine the ability of online ticker searches (e.g. XOM for Exxon Mobil) to forecast abnormal stock returns and trading volumes. Specifically, we argue that online ticker searches serve as a valid proxy for investor sentiment — a set of beliefs about cash flows and investment risks that are not necessarily justified by the facts at hand — which is generally associated with less sophisticated, retail investors. Based on prior research on investor sentiment, we expect online search intensity to forecast stock returns and trading volume, and also expect that highly volatile stocks, which are more difficult to arbitrage, will be more sensitive to search intensity than less volatile stocks. In a sample of S&P 500 firms over the period 2005-2008, we find that, over a weekly horizon, online search intensity reliably predicts abnormal stock returns and trading volumes, and that the sensitivity of returns to search intensity is positively related to the difficulty of a stock being arbitraged. More broadly, our study highlights the potential of employing online search data for other forecasting applications.     

Time-varying lead–lag structure between investor sentiment and stock market

This paper uses the thermal path method to study the lead–lag structure of sentiment and the stock market. First, based on principal component analysis, four indicators are selected to construct the sentiment index. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the thermal path method is verified by numerical simulation. Finally, the lead-lag characteristics of the Shanghai Stock Index and the sentiment index are studied via the symmetric thermal optimal path method. The analysis results show that in the short term, investor sentiment has a leading position in the stock market, which may be related to the herd effect and buying the winners behavior. However, over a longer period of time, investor sentiment is affected mainly by fluctuation in the market, which may be related to the existence of cyclical fluctuations in the market and futures arbitrage. In addition, the stock market's leading effect appears mainly from January 2006 to January 2012, with an average lead time of one month.     

Investor sentiment and country exchange traded funds: Does economic freedom matter?

Using unbalanced panel data of 27 iShares MSCI country-specific exchange traded funds (ETFs) over the period 1996–2014, this paper applies quantile regression to examine the impacts of global, foreign, and U.S. investor sentiments on the returns of the ETFs traded in the U.S. markets. We further investigate whether a country’s economic freedom affects the relationship between investor sentiments and ETF returns. We find that ETF returns are strongly determined by investor sentiments and the ETF expense ratio. The quantile regression approach reveals that high-return ETFs are positively sensitive to changes in global sentiment (measured by market turnover, VIX, U.S. federal funds rate), foreign sentiment (measured by current account balance, inflation, market turnover, public debt), U.S. sentiment, currency exchange ratio, and expense ratio, while negatively influenced by economic freedom and Asian proxy. The effects of VIX and foreign inflation are a reversal; that is, returns from lower (higher) quantiles have a negative (positive) relation with VIX and foreign inflation. Not all components of economic freedom affect returns equally.     

Does investor sentiment affect fund crashes? Evidence from Chinese open-end funds

This paper aims to detect the impact of investor sentiment on the open-end fund crashes, drawing on the open-end stock funds and partial stock funds of China for the 2009–2019 period. The results show that the rise of investor sentiment will significantly increase the risk of the open-end fund crashes, which remains valid after robustness tests. Further researches indicate that the market timing and stock selection abilities of fund managers weaken the positive impact of investor sentiment on the open-end fund crashes, and the market illiquidity promotes the positive impact of investor sentiment on the open-end fund crashes.     

投资者结构模式变迁与市场流动性风险

本文研究了市场流动性风险与投资者结构模式之间的关系。随着机构投资者的不断发展壮大,我国投资者结构模式发生了重要转变,然而新的投资者结构模式下,市场流动性的波动结构是否有所不同？本文以流动性水平变化率为研究对象,构建了包含虚拟变量的TGARCH模型对其波动方程进行拟合,研究发现：机构投资者壮大后市场流动性风险显著降低;机构占主导后市场流动性风险受新信息的影响权重较之前增大,而旧有信息对流动性风险的影响相比以前减小。     

Smart money or dumb money? A study on the selection ability of mutual fund investors in China

We examine investors’ mutual fund selection ability in China. Using actively managed equity mutual funds between 2005 and 2011, we find that Chinese investors generally have no mutual fund selection ability, a result contrary to the smart money effect in the United States. We show that mutual funds that receive more new money subsequently underperform significantly. The findings are robust to several risk-adjusted performance measures. The unique data of China provide separate accounts of institutional and individual investors’ new money flowing into and out of mutual funds, allowing us to examine the mutual fund selection ability of institutional and individual investors. We document that institutional investors exhibit a smart money effect, that is, they are able to move new money into (out of) future good (poor) performers. In contrast, individual investors exhibit a dumb money effect. Our results provide useful information for regulators to review their rules, especially for the protection of individual investors regarding mutual fund investing in China. In addition, we show that it is useful to distinguish institutional and individual investors in mutual fund research.     

对外报告变化对管理决策行为影响的试验分析

本文主要验证在我国现行报告制度下,公司对外报告次数变化导致公司管理当局进行决策的选择行为。由于外部报告产生的资本市场压力会直接或间接影响管理人员的决策行为和决策动机,当决策项目产生的会计盈余时与公司未来长期盈余之间存在矛盾,管理者在进行项目决策时,面临外部报告的资本市场压力,内部代理问题和财务分析师的盈利预测相关因素影响,管理者通常选择短期利润最大化的项目而不是选择长期盈余最大项目,从而导致公司管理层的决策短期化。