The WTO,the Doha Round Impasse,PTAs, and FTAs/RTAs

Beginning in 2001, the Doha Rounds afforded World Trade Organization (WTO) members the opportunity to develop equitable trade rules between the developed and developing member states. The WTO has been successful in advancing multilateral international trade; however, since the Doha Rounds stalemate, it has witnessed the development of more than 300 Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) and over 500 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). This article attempts to answer two questions: (1) has the failure of the Doha Rounds contributed to the proliferation of PTAs and FTAs, and (2) are these agreements threatening the regulatory authority of the WTO, which, in turn, reduces its ability to effectively promote and govern free trade, and its mission?     

Spatial Interdependence in US Outward FDI into Africa,Latin America and the Caribbean

The existing literature on spatial interdependence in FDI flows has primarily focused on developed economies as hosts, with these hosts economically tied together via good infrastructure and historically strong/significant trade flows. In contrast, we explicitly test for the presence of spatial interdependence in developing hosts (Africa, Latin American and the Caribbean) where such ties are not as strong. For US outbound FDI between 1995 and 2007, our empirical results confirm third‐country effects do matter even when controlling for spatial and time‐period fixed effects. Based on the signs of the market potential and spatial lag coefficients, we find US FDI strategies into these regions as consistent with complex vertical specialisation.     

Upgrading and Competitiveness Within the Export Manufacturing Industry in Central America,Mexico, and the Dominican Republic

The competitiveness of the export manufacturing industry (EMI) in Central America, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic has been significantly eroded by increasing competition from Asian countries in the past decade. This paper examines technological upgrading strategies followed by export-oriented manufacturing firms that operate under various investment attraction and export promotion schemes such as maquila and free zones in order to face the increasing Asian competition. In particular, it aims to study why the strategies followed in the two main sectors of the EMI—electronics and apparel—have had significantly different impacts on export competitiveness. Although the empirical evidence shows that both sectors have mainly followed process upgrading strategies, and to a lesser extent functional and inter-sectoral upgrading, the type of governance of the global value chain, sector-specific characteristics, and corporate strategies help explain their diverging impacts on competitiveness.     

Exchange rates and US direct investment into Latin America

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze separately the determinants of maritime transport and road transport costs for Spanish exports to Poland and Turkey (markets for which maritime and road transport are competing modes) and investigate the different effects of these costs on international trade. First, we investigate the extent to which maritime and road transport costs depend on different factors such as unit values, distances, transport conditions, service structures, and service quality. Second, we analyze the relative importance of road and maritime transport costs in comparison with distance measures as determinants of trade flows. The main results of this investigation indicate that real distance is not a good proxy for transportation costs and identify the central variables influencing road and maritime transportation costs: for both modes, transport conditions are strong determinants, whereas efficiency and service quality are more important for maritime transport costs, and geographical distance is more important for road transport. Road and maritime transport costs are central explanatory factors of exports and they seem to deter trade to a greater extent than road or maritime transit time when endogeneity is considered.     

Perceptions of the media in three different cultures: the US,Australia & Taiwan

This paper examines business students' perceptions of the media in the United States, Australia, and Taiwan across four attributes—informative, entertaining, boring and irritating. Management implications of the findings are also discussed. Newspapers, radio, billboards, television, direct mail and magazines were selected for analysis. The findings revealed that 16 different paired comparisons out of a possible 72 tests show statistical significance. Media perception patterns describing respondents' ratings of different media classes for given attributes were examined. The perception patterns in Australia and the United States were similar with respect to the informative, entertaining and boring attributes, and significant differences in perception patterns were found between Taiwan and the other two countries.     

Trade and Standards: A Look at Central America

The relationship between standards, economic development, and trade is at the forefront of policy debate. Standards can accelerate economic efficiency and trade and also act as discriminatory barriers. This paper examines standards in the context of development in Central America. Key aspects of disputes over standards at the World Trade Organization are discussed, along with the reasons why standards matter to development and trade prospects for Central America. The paper recommends ways to leverage shared infrastructure in standards and assist these countries to implement their WTO obligations.     

会计变更准则的国际趋同-- 以美国和澳大利亚为例

会计准则的全球趋同已是不可阻挡的历史潮流,本文以各国常见的经济事项会计变更为例,对美国和澳大利亚有关会计准则的国际趋同情况作了介绍,并对我国相关准则的修订提出了建议.     

中国FTA中农产品市场准入的例外安排:基于产品层面的分析

本文基于产品层面详细梳理了中国10个FTA中敏感农产品的关税、原产地规则以及其他非关税措施的总体特征、产品特征和国别特征,同时总结了中国对不同贸易伙伴和不同产品的保护策略。研究结果表明:中国FTA中农产品对外开放相对保守,贸易保护措施相对简单;除政治目的性较强的FTA外,针对不同的贸易伙伴,中国主要考虑双方比较优势、贸易流量以及对方国家出口潜力等内容而采取关税、原产地规则和其他非关税措施的"交叉保护"、"双重保护"等4种策略;针对不同产品,中国主要基于产品的政治敏感性、比较优势以及相关产业的政治力量等内容而采取"交叉保护"、"双重保护"和"一般保护"等7种策略。     

The Effects of Economic Integration and Political Instability in Central America

We use stochastic frontier analysis to study the effects of political instability events and economic integration on technical efficiency. A set of industries in Central America are analyzed during a period of perceived lack of regional economic integration (1980s) and a period of renewed economic integration (early 1990s). Results show that economic integration has had a negative effect on technical efficiency during this period. The effect from political instability depends on the type of event, both at the industry and national level.     

International portfolio diversification: US and Central European equity markets

This paper examines the short- and long-term relationships between the US stock market and three Central European markets. Low short-term correlations between these markets and the US are found. Application of the Johansen cointegration procedure indicates that there is no long-term relationship. The Granger-causality test does reveal a causality running from the Hungarian to the Polish market, but none with the US. Overall, the results suggest that US investors can obtain benefits from international diversification into these markets.     

How Do Migrants from Latin America and the Caribbean Fare in the US Labour Market?

This paper discusses the causes of mass migration from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to the United States in recent decades and how these migrants have fared in US labour markets. The evidence shows that LAC migrants have higher unemployment rates and substantially lower wages than other immigrants and natives. Furthermore, the relative wages of LAC migrants have been declining sharply over the last 25 years. The most significant factor explaining the latter is the lower (and declining) educational attainment of LAC migrants relative to other immigrants and natives, compounded by the rising rates of return to education in the US.     

“购买美国法”的沉浮与美国对外贸易政策的嬗变

购买美国法制定于上世纪那场经济大萧条后的1933年。从本质上讲,这是一部限制贸易的法律。该法的启用与美国的经济形势不无关系。每当美国经济处于上升或繁荣时期,购买美国法就会被人淡忘甚至搁置。然而当美国经济处于下滑或不景气的时候,人们则会通过启用该法来限制进口,保护国内产业发展。可以这么说,购买美国法的沉浮是美国对外贸易政策乃至整个美国经济嬗变的一个重要标志。虽然奥巴马政府此番重启购买美国法,其国内形势与该法制定时的情形有一定的相似之处,但是,国际社会经历了半个多世纪的发展,已经发生了翻天覆地的变化。因此,美国今天重新启用购买美国法,这是历史的倒退,对于国际贸易的发展和消除当下的国际金融危机都是弊大于利的做法。     

全球自贸区发展新态势下中国自贸区的推进战略

中国已经逐步构筑起立足周边、放眼亚洲、面向全球的自贸区网络,但在市场准入、规则谈判等方面与发达经济体存在较大差距,且网络所覆盖的经济体在经济实力和影响方面与欧美所构建的自贸网络也存在差距。中国应加快中日韩自贸区和RCEP建设,积极同"一带一路"沿线国家建立自贸区,将金砖国家作为自贸区建设的中长期重点,争取适时加入TPP和建立中欧自贸区,并逐步建立公平开放透明的市场规则。     

US trade wars in the twenty‐first century with emerging countries: Make America and its partners lose again

In a context of rising protectionist rhetoric, this paper looks at the potential impact of trade wars initiated by a change in US trade policies. We use a static multicountry, multisector general equilibrium model to evaluate six modalities of three potential trade wars—for a total of 18 scenarios—between the USA and China, between the USA and Mexico, and a combination of the two previous conflicts. In each case, we evaluate various forms of trade retaliation by the US partner(s): the same level of import duty as the one imposed by the USA , an import duty that minimises welfare loss, a duty that minimises terms‐of‐trade deterioration, a duty that generates the same amount of collected revenue, and finally a Nash equilibrium. We conclude that there is no scenario in which the US government augments its domestic welfare or GDP . There may be sectoral gains in value added in the USA , but they are small and to the detriment of other sectors. While losses for China are relatively small, potential losses for the Mexican economy are significant. There are also free riders of these trade wars. Finally, the way in which trade retaliations are designed matters greatly.     

美国双边投资协议与自由贸易协议负面清单的

本文深入考察了美国BIT和FTA负面清单的发展和演变过程,分析了两类协议负面清单的关联性和差异性。经过30多年的演变,美国的负面清单日益简洁和明确,新一代负面清单的政策透明度大大提高。美国BIT和FTA负面清单形式和内容的演进具有很强的关联性。目前,两类协议负面清单最主要的差异在于FTA增加了针对服务贸易的限制,包括在负面清单中增加涉及服务贸易的不符措施和在同一不符措施中增加涉及服务贸易的条款。在上述分析的基础上,本文从立法模式、立法内容和制度体系3个方面总结了美国负面清单管理制度可供中国借鉴的经验。     

从WTO协议中“最惠国条款”及其例外看自由贸易区的兴起

最惠国待遇条款是WTO赖以存在的基石,GATT第24条作为最惠国待遇的最大一项例外为自由贸易区(FTA)的建立提供了正当性的基础。由于该条款谈判历史上的原因,GATT第24条的条款并不非常明确。自由贸易区的兴起和发展使其正成为平行于WTO体制之外的国际经贸法制。中国应根据本国经贸状况构建符合本国利益的自由贸易区体系和规则。