A model of an Indian village: A study of alternative sources of energy for irrigation

This study analyses the feasibility of various sources of energy for irrigation on the northeast Indian plains. In this region there is a large potential for further use of groundwater, and this paper examines the trade-off between the benefits to agriculture of irrigation, and the costs of the energy and equipment required for pumping.A linear programming model has been developed to predict the effects on agricultural production of several conventional and non-conventional technologies. Only small size pumps suitable for use by individual farmers or small cooperatives are considered.The results show diesel-fuelled pumpsets to have the largest net benefits. The general uncompetitiveness of the other technologies is due to the low energy requirements of irrigation in this area.     

我国股票市场运行中的政府行为研究

金融证券理论认为投资者行为受市场机制约束,政府的作用在于防止投资者脱离投资理性。但我国股票市场是在政府主导下运行的,政府行为不仅导致市场的波动,而且还可以改变市场运行的方向。政府主导市场的结果是扭曲了投资者行为,加大了市场"泡沫",并为利益集团寻租创造了条件。     

海尔关联交易模式考较市场

大比例关联交易和内部人定价如何确保交易价格体现市场的真实价格水平?如何保证关联交易的真实、合理?投资者义如何获取辨别关联交易的真实、合理所需的信息?     

The impact of opportunity factors on fraudulent behavior in the Vietnamese stock market

This study examines the opportunity factors on fraudulent behavior in Vietnam’s stock market by employing mixed methodology. In this regard, data were obtained from 20 in-depth interviews and 568 questionnaire survey responses of securities companies, fund management companies, stock exchanges and the State Securities Commission in Vietnam. Using the exploratory factor analysis, the study discovered that the following groups of opportunity factors result in fraudulent behavior: (i) influences of the internal person and issuer, which include (person whose internal information has not been published by the company), collusion of the issuer and securities company, abuse of power by influential person in the company, complex organizational structure of the issuer (one person handling multiple positions) and failure of an issuer to properly control internal information; (ii) investors’ factors, which include investors’ trade of securities based on the insider’s suggestion, framework of foreign investors, brokerage company recommendations, and advisory information on securities forums; and (iii) factors associated with market management and supervision, such as use of lenient penalty with no deterrent effect, untimely market management and limited authority of the securities committee. Using regression analysis, the order of the impact of each group of factors was found as follows: factors due to internal person and the issuing organization, the market management and supervision, and investors.     

Brick manufacturing in Columbia: A case study of alternative technologies

There is systematic variation in size and capital-intensity across firms in LDC manufacturing industries, variation which is greater than that observed in advanced countries (DCs). This paper examines the hypothesis that the pattern results from diffusion of superior modern technology which is proceeding at a slower rate in LDCs than in DCs. Evidence from the Columbian brick industry is presented which suggests that slow diffusion is not a sufficient explanation.     

套利定价模型在上海股票市场的无效性检验

1952年，Markowitz在《投资组合选择》一文中指出分散投资可降低风险，并在投资者理性预期的基础上提出了投资组合选择理论，即在有效边界的风险和标准差给定水平上，投资者选择期望收益率最高的资产组合。1959年，Roberts和Osbeme在对股票价格行为研究中发现股票价格遵循随机游走规律，提出了“有效市场假说”(EMH)：如果有用的信息能够立即地、无偏地反映证券价格，那么市场就是有效的。在市场有效条件下，     

宏观经济与股票市场：来自A股的实践

近年来中国股票市场运行与宏观经济表现之间呈现出复杂的关系,股票市场自身的波动更是招致颇多争议。本文运用因果关系等分析方法进行实证研究,力图探求这种复杂关系背后的本质。从实际上证指数和经济变量绝对值来看,笔者利用相关数据进行了实证检验,发现GDP值、社会货币供应量这2个经济变量对整个股票市场的具有明显影响,上证指数与经济变量之间存在显著的因果关系。     

Heterogeneous impacts of Abenomics on the stock market: A Fund flow analysis

This study examines the heterogeneous impacts of Abenomics on the Japanese stock market using fund flow data. While Fukuda (2015) identifies changes in foreign investors’ expectations from price changes in financial markets, we focus on changes in the quantity demanded of Japanese stocks. We obtain three findings. First, only foreign investors aggressively and immediately purchased Japanese stocks at the onset of Abenomics. Second, since the two years following the launch of Abenomics, foreign investment inflows into Japanese stocks have changed due to external factors originating in the United States. Third, a VAR analysis shows the heterogeneous impacts of Abenomics among investors inside and outside Japan. However, the changes in foreign investors’ expectations are short-lived in the sense that signs of permanent shifts as a result of Abenomics cannot be identified after 2014.     

Supply response under market liberalisation: A case study of Malawian agriculture

In order to analyse the effects of policy reforms, output supply and factor demand responses to input and output prices for Malawian agriculture are estimated in this article in a multiple-output, multiple-input framework. The implications of various structural adjustment policies implemented in Malawi are analysed using the model results for their impact on the smallholder agricultural sector. The results of the analysis indicate that removal of fertiliser subsidy – a major component of market reform policies – does not substantially reduce the production of maize, the major staple food in Malawi. However, when implemented in appropriate sequence along with other output market liberalisation policies and increased investment in infrastructure, such a policy is likely to increase the productivity of smallholder agriculture.     

The state of the market and the contrarian strategy: evidence from China's stock market

Using the most comprehensive weekly dataset of ‘A’ shares listed on the Chinese stock market, this paper examines short-term contrarian strategies under different market states from 1995–2010. We find statistically significant profits from contrarian strategies, especially during the period after 2007, when China (along with other countries) experienced an economic downturn following the worldwide financial crisis. Our empirical evidence suggests that: (1) no significant profit is generated from either momentum or contrarian strategies in the intermediate horizon; (2) after microstructure effects are adjusted for, contrarian strategies with only four to eight weeks holding periods based on the stocks’ previous four to eight week's performance generate statistically significant profits of around 0.2% per week; (3) the contrarian strategy following a ‘down’ market generates higher profit than those following an ‘up’ market, suggesting that a contrarian strategy could be used as a shelter when the market is in decline. The profits following a ‘down’ market are robust after risk adjustment.     

The microstructure of the Chinese stock market

The auction principles, clearance, settlement, and depository (CSD) facilities of the Chinese stock market are described. An autoregressive model is found to characterize the time series properties of stock returns and volatility in the Shanghai market reasonably well. The extremely high volatility of the market is explained well by its lagged volatilities along with trading volumes. Further scrutiny reveals that trading volumes and volatility are endogenous in a vector autoregressive process (VAR) system for the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI). Foreign shares are found to behave differently from domestic shares in several respects.     

International linkages of the Japanese stock market

Using daily open-to-close and close-to-open stock prices, this paper examines whether there are any lead–lag relationships between the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the other G7 stock markets. In particular, this paper analyzes whether the movements of other markets in the preceding trading session can be used to formulate profitable strategies to trade in Nikkei.     

科力远 巴菲特的A股情人？

巴菲特的每一个动作都被市场关注。近期，他旗下的公司与比亚迪签署了股份认购协议，让人们联想到了A股市场着力于汽车动力电池的上市公司——科力远.     

股市二十年：不该忘却的记忆

中国股市在迷茫中蹒跚起步,注定了它的发展必然充满曲折、坎坷甚至磨难。二十年风风雨雨,有人赚了,有人赔了;有人笑了,有人哭了;有人来了,有人走了。二十年的中国股市,经历了几次大起大落,它既奠定了中国市场经济大厦的基石,又不断遭到各方的质疑。     

中国股市投机泡沫的膨胀与破灭:机制转换模型的应用

本文运用机制转换模型研究收益率与换手率的非线性关系,以此描述中国股票市场投机泡沫的膨胀及部分破灭的演进过程。结果证明中国股票市场存在膨胀中会部分破灭的投机泡沫。市场大幅下跌概率的样本内、样本外估计值能较好预测历史数据中出现的最大实际损失,说明机制转换模型具有良好的预测能力;投机泡沫的部分破灭是导致中国股票市场价格大幅下跌的主要原因。     

Short selling and stock prices with regime switching in the absence of market makers: The case of Japan

This paper investigates the relation between short selling and stock price at an aggregated market level. In order to study the differential impact of market microstructure on short selling, the data from Japanese stock markets are used. Both traditional regression and Markov switching models are used to compare Japanese results to those of U.S. and to admit non-stationary relation between short selling and stock price, respectively. Particularly, relatively long period (1978–2002) of analysis including bullish and bearish periods gives a good testable bed for studying the effect of short selling on stock price according to market condition. The empirical findings reveal that percentage change of short interests has a statistically significant positive relation with stock returns. It gives regulators policy implication that short selling is not a destabilizing activity, but an acceptable form of trading even in the absence of market makers. And short selling information cannot be used as an indicator for predicting future stock markets.     

The stock market and the ringgit exchange rate: a note

This paper presents and tests an augmented monetary model that includes the effect of stock prices on the bilateral exchange rates. The model is applied to the ringgit/US dollar (RM/US) and ringgit/Japanese yen (RM/JY) exchange rates. The empirical analysis is conducted by the Johansen method of cointegration. Using the data from the recent float that ends with 1996:Q4, the study is motivated, among others, by an interesting preliminary finding that although the augmented monetary model is cointegrated, it is subject to parameter instability and that the parameter time dependency can be attributed at least partly to a particular subset of the variables in the system including stock prices. We find that a restricted VAR model which imposes exogeneity restrictions on I(1) variables, such as stock prices, among others, exhibits both cointegration and parameter stability. In addition, we demonstrate that exchange rate adjusts to clear any disequilibrium in the long-run relationship. The empirical findings tend to suggest that the equity market is significant in affecting the exchange rate and in explaining at least in part the parameter instability evidenced in the cointegrating system. Hence, we conclude that models of equilibrium exchange rate should be extended to include equity markets in addition to bond markets.     

Estimating variability in the Italian stock market: An ARCH approach

The variability of financial markets has become the focus of considerable interest, especially over the past decade. In this study, ARCH models are applied to the Italian stock market, at both general and sectoral levels, to identify the processes generating variances and to test whether the variances are explainable by an autoregressive equation. The predictive power of the estimated equations has been evaluated by comparing them with forecasts obtained from alternative estimation techniques. The outcome supports the idea of an autoregressive structure for the variances and a hyperreactive behavior of the Italian stock market to the arrival of destabilizing news.