The COVID-19 pandemic and financial markets in Central Europe: Macroeconomic measures and international policy spillovers

This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic policy announcements on financial markets in three Central European economies: Czechia, Hungary, and Poland (CE–3). We focus on the unprecedented stabilisation policies implemented from March to December 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, including unconventional monetary measures and large stimulus programs. Detailed categories of monetary and fiscal measures are introduced into vector autoregressions with exogenous regressors and dynamic conditional correlations, which we estimate using daily data. This allows us to control for policy spillovers from abroad, as well as global risk factors and pandemic-related variables. We find that, in general, macroeconomic policy measures implemented in the CE–3 countries played an important role in stabilising financial markets during the pandemic. We uncover several notable patterns in the reaction of markets to anti-crisis measures across the region. The impact of the monetary policy announcements on 10-year sovereign bond yields was more substantial than on stock market returns and exchange rate returns. The communication of the unconventional tools proved effective in lowering the bond yields. Interestingly, we document that the effects of non-standard measures for some variables, such as the exchange rate, can be qualitatively different from those resulting from a conventional monetary expansion. Even though the domestic monetary events became more important than the fiscal ones, the latter proved relevant for financial market returns, especially when large-scale immediate fiscal measures and tax deferrals were introduced. We also show that the CE–3 economies were subject to the cross-border transmission of policy announcement effects from the Euro Area and the US, although the magnitude of these effects was smaller than expected and varied across the CE–3 countries.     

Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing

The emergence of substantial fiscal deficits and a large build up of government debt in major advanced economies will inevitably lead to a period of fiscal consolidation in coming years. In an earlier paper, Asian Economic Papers, 9, 2010 and 54, explored the effects of this fiscal adjustment in advanced economies on the global economic outlook. This paper focuses on the differences between the impacts of fiscal policy in advanced versus emerging economies. In particular, the need for more fiscal spending on infrastructure in emerging economies and the need for fiscal consolidation in advanced economies leads naturally to the question of what this asymmetric fiscal adjustment might do to global trade balances as well as global economic growth over the coming decades. The adjustment needed in both regions is substantial, and the asymmetry of the adjustment implies important consequences for trade and capital flows between regions as well as asset price adjustments within and between regions.     

Optimal fiscal policy in a small open economy with limited commitment

We introduce limited commitment into a standard optimal fiscal policy model in small open economies. We consider the problem of a benevolent government that signs a risk-sharing contract with the rest of the world, and that has to choose optimally distortionary taxes on labor income, domestic debt and international transfers. Both the home country and the rest of the world may have limited commitment, which means that they can leave the contract if they find it convenient. The contract is designed so that, at any point in time, neither party has incentives to exit. We define a small open emerging economy as an economy where the limited commitment problem is active in equilibrium. Conversely, a small open developed economy is an economy in which the commitment problem is not active. Our model is able to rationalize some stylized facts about fiscal policy in emerging economies: i) the volatility of tax revenues over GDP is higher in emerging economies than in developed ones; ii) fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging economies; iii) emerging economies may “graduate” from procyclical fiscal policy and adopt countercyclical policies in the long run.     

Keynote Speech: Macro-Financial Policy Challenges in the Face of a Complex Environment: The Case of Mexico

Emerging economies face a complex environment as of April 2015, mostly as a result of a slowdown in global growth, an increased risk of capital flow reversals, and a reduction in the price of oil. Due to the effects of this reduction on external and fiscal balance, the environment is particularly adverse for oil-exporting countries. This article reviews the different channels through which the environment entails financial risk for emerging economies, focusing on Mexico, an emerging and oil-exporting country. Our analysis reveals that this country faces several macro-financial policy challenges stemming from the aforementioned financial risks.     

Emerging market local currency bonds: Diversification and stability

We examine the dynamics of emerging market (EM) local currency government bond yields for the last decade and a half as well as for three different phases (January 2000–December 2007, January 2008–April 2013, and since May 2013). We show that domestic factors have anchored EM local currency government bond yields, increasing the potential diversification benefit. Moreover, these yields have become relatively resilient to global risk aversion shocks. Yet, EM local currency government bond yields have been affected partly by very low US Treasury yields and are susceptible to the latter's increases.     

Global impact of loss of confidence in Asian emerging markets

With the interest rate hike in the US and, more recently, in the UK, sudden stops in investments and capital reversals are apparent in the Asian emerging economies. A modelling approach is taken, using the G-Cubed model, to simulate the potential global economic impacts, with a focus on Asia. The results demonstrate that myopic fiscal interventions in Asian emerging economies could result in short-term stimulus, at the expense of long-term growth. The stimulus in advanced economies too would be short-lived, diverting the benefits to unintended fractions in the global economy. Advanced economies that minimally change their trade and investment patterns tend to avoid distortionary impacts of the crisis.     

Accounting for sovereign tail risk in emerging economies: The role of global and domestic risk factors

This paper evaluates the role of global and domestic risk factors in explaining sovereign tail risk for 18 emerging economies. Sovereign tail risk is defined as the likelihood of a sharp rise in sovereign credit risk. We find that both global and domestic risk factors contribute significantly to sovereign tail risk, with explanatory power increasing with the severity of tail risk in a non-linear fashion. Indeed, their contributions have become stronger following the global financial crisis. In particular, global liquidity conditions, commodity prices and economic growth are ranked as the major risk factors for sovereign tail risk among the EMEs.     

Determinants of domestic credit levels in emerging markets: The role of external factors

This paper empirically examines the determinants of domestic credit expansion across a wide range of 24 emerging market economies. We use a dynamic panel data estimation technique to investigate the short-run and long-run effects of internal demand and external supply factors, external balance, different measures of trade openness and global uncertainty on domestic credit. We find that loose monetary policy in the domestic market, differences between domestic and global lending rates and real trade openness positively contribute to domestic credit levels. The findings also show that external balance and perceptions of global tail risk negatively affect domestic credit levels.     

Immunity and infection: Emerging and developed market sovereign spreads over the Global Financial Crisis

We compare sovereign bond spreads during the international financial crisis across groups drawn from 43 countries, including 20 emerging economies. We extend traditional factor analyses and utilize propensity score matching to select a non-crisis sample for comparison with the crisis sample that is more robust to exogenous crisis dating. We find minimal changes over the crisis period in the average spreads of local-currency-denominated emerging market bonds. In contrast, the spreads of peripheral Eurozone sovereign bonds increased by large amounts and were subject to sovereign risk contagion.     

Does governing law affect bond spreads?

Controlling for bond and issuer characteristics, bond spreads are expected to be equal across different legal jurisdictions, and differences are expected to disappear through arbitrage. However, an analysis of 490 U.S. dollar–denominated bonds issued by 53 emerging market sovereigns during 1990–2015 reveals that after the financial crisis of 2008, launch spreads of sovereign bonds issued under U.K. law have been higher than those issued under U.S. law, by 130 basis points for BB+ bonds and 175 basis points for B− bonds. This effect was not significant for investment grade bonds. On average, bonds issued under U.K. law had weaker ratings and shorter tenors post-crisis. The post-crisis impact of governing law on sovereign bond spreads is not explained by collective action clauses, or first-time bond issuances. Instead, the difference seems to be related to the perception that U.S. law offers stronger investor protection, and that the investor base for bonds issued under U.S. law is larger than that for bonds issued under U.K. law. The difference in spreads persists in the secondary market even after 180 days, perhaps because of the lack of liquidity, as investors tend to buy and hold these more attractive bonds on a longer-term basis.     

Global financial conditions,country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries

This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main findings are: (1) global financial risk shocks explain about 20% of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (3) Country spread shocks explain about 15 percent of the business cycles in emerging economies. (4) Interdependence between economic activity and the country spread is a key mechanism through which global financial shocks are transmitted to emerging economies.     

新形势下推进河北对外贸易的思考

在本轮经济危机中,主要依靠宽松货币政策和财政政策的刺激而启动的全球经济复苏,态势缓慢乏力,欧美国家更是将世界经济失衡的原因归咎于新兴经济体的快速发展及全球经济一体化带来的负面影响,致使经济发达国家放任本币贬值,更加注重通过增加出口来提振本国经济,加大对中国等发展中国家进口产品的限制,无端制造贸易摩擦,出台层出不穷的贸易保护措施,各国在争夺整体需求增长乏力的国际市场上的竞争更加激烈,致使我们面临的国际贸易环境更趋复杂。     

新冠肺炎疫情后各国主权债务风险及其前景

新冠肺炎疫情及其经济冲击促使许多国家财政赤字率和政府债务率大幅升高,其影响程度超过了2008年国际金融危机。笔者既不赞成现代货币理论(MMT)的看法,也不认同悲观派的看法。从影响各国主权债务风险的几大因素看,一些新兴市场经济体尤其需要关注利率的3种风险溢价:通胀风险溢价、货币贬值风险溢价和信誉(违约风险)溢价。展望未来,发达经济体和新兴市场经济体将花费数年时间进行财政收支和政府债务调整,以渐进方式推进政府部门的去杠杆。     

美国贸易政策不确定性与新兴经济体跨境股票资本流动北大核心CSSCI

本文使用1996年2月-2020年1月35个新兴经济体的跨境股票型基金微观数据,实证考察美国贸易政策不确定性对新兴经济体跨境股票资本流动的影响。结果表明:美国贸易政策不确定性上升会导致新兴经济体跨境股票型基金净资本流入下降,这一影响在2008年全球金融危机后更为显著。受国别因素影响,美国贸易政策不确定性的影响存在异质性。一国外汇风险暴露水平更高、国际金融一体化风险更大、与美国直接贸易联系更紧密,受到的美国贸易政策不确定性的影响更显著,更高的利率水平有利于缓解美国贸易政策不确定性的影响。从全球价值链视角来看,美国贸易政策不确定性上升对处于研发密集型行业下游和邮政通讯、金融商业服务等行业下游的经济体影响显著。渠道分析表明,全球投资者对新兴经济体的国别风险情绪变化是美国贸易政策不确定性冲击的重要传导渠道。进一步研究表明,中美贸易摩擦期间,主要受美国贸易政策不确定性影响,加征关税会显著降低新兴经济体跨境股票型基金净资本流入。在金融开放进程中,新兴经济体应防范外部不确定性引发的资本流动剧烈波动风险,保持宏观经济与金融市场稳定。     

Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets

This paper examines the co-movement dynamics of ten emerging and four frontier government bond markets with the US market and the impact of macroeconomic factors and global bond market uncertainty on the time-varying co-movement. We find that macroeconomic factors play important role in explaining time variations in the bond return co-movement. Specifically, domestic macroeconomic factors have higher relative importance than global factors, with domestic monetary policy and domestic inflationary environment identified as the most influential factors. The global bond market uncertainty, based on an implied volatility measure, has explanatory power in driving co-movement dynamics in emerging and frontier bond markets.     

Greenium in the Chinese corporate bond market

This paper explores the pricing implications of green bonds in the Chinese corporate bond market. We document a large greenium in the Chinese green bond market, whereby green bonds are issued at lower offering yield spreads in the primary market and traded at lower yields in the secondary market. The magnitude of the Chinese greenium is substantially greater than other international green bond markets. Exploring the underlying mechanisms, we document convincing evidence that mitigation of information asymmetry and exposure to salient environmental stimuli such as air pollution are plausible explanations of the greenium.     

How fiscal rules can reduce sovereign debt default risk

The economic literature has been forceful on the role of fiscal institutions in attenuating economic fluctuations. In particular, the implementation of fiscal rules has gained importance in the toolkit of macroeconomic stabilization policies. This paper studies the effect of fiscal rule implementation on sovereign default risk and on the probability of capital flow reversals for a large sample of countries including both developed and emerging market economies. Results indicate that fiscal rules are beneficial for macroeconomic stability, as they significantly reduce both sovereign risk and the probability of a sudden stop in countries that implement them. These results, which are robust to various empirical specifications, have important policy implications specially for countries that have relaxed their fiscal rules in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.     

The Determinants of Bond Market Development: Further Evidence from Emerging and Developed Countries

The objective of this paper is to empirically investigate the structural, financial, developmental, institutional, and macroeconomic determinants of bond market development for a sample of 22 emerging and developing countries over the period 1990–2013. We employ both the Prais-Winston and system GMM procedures to tackle the problems of endogeneity among the explanatory variables and our measure of bond market development, group-wise heteroscedasticity, and contemporaneous cross-sectional and serial correlations in the residuals. Our results suggest that a combination of structural, financial and institutional factors seem to exert a significant effect on bond markets. Indeed, economic size, trade openness, investment profile, GDP per Capita, bureaucratic quality, and size and concentration of banking system are positively related to bond market development, while interest rate volatility and fiscal balance are negatively associated with the development of bond markets. Those results are robust to the inclusion of developed countries' bond markets, international bonds issuers, and to possible structural breaks.     

Frontier and emerging government bond markets

We investigate correlation dynamics and diversification properties of US dollar-denominated debt issued by governments of frontier markets. Our analysis is on the aggregate, regional, and country level, with a sample covering 29 countries over the period 2001–2013. We show that the correlation between the returns of frontier government bond markets and US government bonds is time-varying, but on average close to zero. Correlations with US investment grade corporate bonds, US corporate high yield bonds, and US dollar-denominated debt issued by governments of emerging markets are substantially higher, which limits diversification benefits for investors who already own these asset classes.     

Does corruption increase emerging market bond spreads?

We study the relationship between corruption and borrowing costs for governments and firms in emerging markets. Combining data on bonds traded in the global market with survey data on corruption compiled by Transparency International, we show that countries that are perceived as more corrupt must pay a higher risk premium when issuing bonds. The global bond market ascribes a significant cost to corruption: an improvement in the corruption score from the level of Lithuania to that of the Czech Republic lowers the bond spread by about one-fifth. This is true even after controlling for macroeconomic effects that are correlated with corruption. We find little evidence that investors became more sensitive to corruption in the wake of the Asian financial crisis.