Financial liberalization and banking crises in emerging economies

Financial liberalization often leads to financial crises. This link has usually been attributed to poorly designed banking systems, an explanation that is largely static. In this paper we develop a dynamic explanation, by modelling the evolution of a newly-liberalized bank's opportunities and incentives to take on risk over time. The model reveals that even if a banking system is well-designed, in the sense of having good long-run properties, many countries will enjoy an initial period of rapid, low-risk growth and then enter a period with an elevated risk of banking crisis. This transition emerges because of the way in which the degree of foreign competition, the marginal product of capital, and the bank's own net worth simultaneously evolve.     

Trading activity in stock index futures markets: The evidence of emerging markets

This study investigates the trading activity of the Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX) and Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading Limited (SGX‐DT) Taiwan Stock Index Futures markets by analyzing the intraday patterns of volume and volatility. In addition, the market closure theory, which may explain such patterns, is examined. Overall, the trading pattern appears to be U‐shaped for the TAIFEX futures and U+W‐shaped for the SGX‐DT. For the SGX‐DT futures, volatility follows the same pattern as that of the number of price changes. For the TAIFEX futures, however, after the peak at the close of the spot market, the volatility in the TAIFEX futures drops consistently until the end of the day while volatility in the SGX‐DT still reaches a smaller peak at the close of the futures market. In addition, a visual inspection of the intraday patterns of these two markets shows that the market closure theory can effectively explain the intraday patterns of these two markets. The empirical results support the market closure theory in that liquidity demand from traders rebalancing their portfolios before and after market closures creates larger volume and volatility at both the open and close. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:983–1003, 2002     

Globalization and technology adoption: evidence from emerging economies

This paper examines the role of globalization in the creation and dissemination of technology across firms operating in 30 emerging and developing economies. Firm-level data from four rounds of Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Surveys from 2002 to 2014 is pooled to assess whether international exposure translates into greater propensity for firms to innovate. The viability of different channels of international technology transmission, i.e. exporting and importing activities, foreign licensing agreements and foreign direct investment are studied to analyze whether they indeed succeed in delivering the push to the firms operating in developing countries to innovate and as a result push them closer to the world's technology frontier. The empirical results endorse the view that exporting and importing activities and foreign licensing agreements are important channels for technology transfer. This study also acknowledges country, sector and firm specific characteristics and their differential capacity to benefit from foreign exposure.     

New empirical evidence on CEE's stock markets integration

The main aim of the study was to explore the integration of CEE’s stock markets (Central, South-East and Baltic) with those of the developed ones (Germany, USA and the UK). Using daily data from 20 October 2000 up to 20 October 2016, the static analysis indicates a long-run cointegration relationship between CEE markets and all three counterparts considered. The dynamic analysis indicates several short-run episodes of cointegration, which are influenced by nondomestic factors. When comparing among the counterparts, one can highlight that the US stock market is less integrated with emerging markets, which could be considered for portfolio diversification. Furthermore, the contagion effect is not rejected, given that the dynamic pairwise correlations are likely to be affected by herding behaviour and significant break dates.     

Financial liberalization and remittances: Recent panel evidence

We investigate the impact of financial liberalization on remittances to 84 countries over the period 1986–2005. Explicitly accounting for the multidimensionality of financial reform, we find that the various dimensions impact remittances differently: Increased economic freedom in the financial sector, as captured by absence of direct government control over the allocation of credit, has a positive and immediate impact. However, the improved robustness of financial markets, as captured by the development of security markets, improvement in the quality of banking supervision, and removal of stringent restrictions on interest rates and international capital, has a negative and lagged effect. The net combined effect reveals that financial liberalization may have a modest negative impact on remittances in the long run.     

Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper reassesses how “experience-based” corporate corruption affects stock market volatility in 14 emerging markets. We match the World Bank enterprise-level data on bribes with a unique cross-country macroeconomics dataset obtained from the World Bank development indicators. It is found that wider coverage of “realized” corporate corruption in the emerging markets investigated reduces the stock market volatility, attributed to decrease in uncertainty about government policy with regard to the business environment, as implied by the general equilibrium model of Pastor and Veronesi (2012). Overall, our results suggest that stock price volatility decreases as the uncertainty about government policy becomes more predictable, which is consistent with the testable hypotheses of Pastor and Veronesi (2012).     

Volatilities in emerging MENA stock markets

This article examines the interrelationships among the emerging stock markets of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, as well as the relationship between each MENA stock market and the larger and more developed markets of Europe and the United States. It explores whether MENA stock markets can offer international investors unique risk/return characteristics to diversify international and regional portfolios. This study adds to the existing literature by focusing—for the first time— on the dynamic relationships in the volatilities of the returns in MENA stock markets. The econometric part of the article uses the causality‐in‐variances GARCH model, the TARCH and ARCH‐M models, and VAR analysis to model conditional volatilities in stock market returns and the dynamic responses of volatilities to innovations in conditional variances. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The internationalization of emerging stock markets

Stock markets in developing countries today account for about 7 per cent of world equity market capitalization, and this share is rising rapidly. Foreign investors have in the past often faced restrictive barriers to access to these emerging markets. A growing number of developing countries have now started to dismantle these barriers, however, resulting in an increasing interest by international portfolio managers in these emerging stock markets.     

Order imbalances and market efficiency: New evidence from the Chinese stock market

This paper differentiates order imbalances based on trader categories. The daily order imbalances are highly persistent, especially for the number-measured imbalances. That the price pressure caused by imbalances cannot last beyond a trading day indicates that China's stock market is efficient enough to absorb the imbalances. We find that large individuals, small individuals and small institutions act frequently as market makers by submitting non-marketable limit orders, and the market making activities are profitable for small individuals and institutions. The evidence indicates that individuals are noise or liquidity traders, while institutions are more likely to be informed traders.     

Diversification,efficiency and risk of banks: Evidence from emerging economies

This paper examines the impact of business diversification of banks on their risk, with efficiency taken into consideration as a conduit. Using bank-level data from more than 1000 commercial banks in 39 emerging economies during the period of 2000–2016, we find that increased business diversification exerts two competing effects on bank risk. The direct effect of increased diversification bolsters the stability of banks, but it is offset by the indirect effect whereby lowered efficiency, which is resulted from higher diversification, increases the riskiness of banks. Thus, the overall benefits from bank business diversification on bank stability rely on the trade-off of the two competing forces.     

Sustainability report and bank valuation: evidence from European stock markets

Applying value relevance analysis to a sample of European banks, we test the following: (i) the direct effects of the sustainability report on stock price; (ii) whether the report modifies the value relevance of financial accounting variables (indirect effects); and (iii) whether the value relevance of sustainability reports varies across countries. Results show that investors appreciate the additional and complementary disclosure provided by the sustainability report and that this disclosure produces a positive effect on stock prices. Estimates of the indirect effects demonstrate that it has a negative influence on book value per share, whereas the effect on earnings per share is not significant. Cross‐country analysis shows that the value relevance of the sustainability report varies across European countries, consistent with the hypothesis that the value relevance of the sustainability report is likely to be influenced by different institutional contexts.     

Predicting returns and changes in real activity: evidence from emerging economies

This paper studies the relation between real activity and share prices in nine emerging economies. Especially, it is investigated whether the time series of real activity and share prices are cointegrated, whether the deviations from the cointegration relations contain information that can be used to predict returns and changes in real activity, and finally whether returns are proportional to the predictions of changes in real activity. The results reveal that the deviations from the cointegration relations contain information that can be used to predict returns and changes in real activity in those countries where cointegration between share prices and real activity cannot be rejected. Furthermore, it is also found that returns are not proportional to the predictions of changes in real activity.     

The tail risk of emerging stock markets

We investigate tail risk in emerging stock markets at the country, regional and world levels, by comparing the investable and non-investable segments in terms of the expected shortfall of standardized returns and tail dependence on the world market. Employing the skewed Student-t GJR-GARCH model and the SJC copula, we show that most investable portfolios have lower tail risk but higher tail dependence than non-investable ones; emerging markets are likely more dependent on the world market during large joint losses than large joint gains; and tail dependence of the aggregate and investable markets on the world market varies across countries and regions.     

Liquidity and stock returns in emerging equity markets

Using data for 27 emerging equity markets for the period January 1992 through December 1999, we document the behavior of liquidity in emerging markets. We find that stock returns in emerging countries are positively correlated with aggregate market liquidity as measured by turnover ratio, trading value and the turnover–volatility multiple. The results hold in both cross-sectional and time-series analyses, and are quite robust even after we control for world market beta, market capitalization and price-to-book ratio. The positive correlation between stock returns and market liquidity in a time-series analysis is consistent with the findings in developed markets. However, the positive correlation in a cross-sectional analysis appears to be at odds with market microstructure theory that has been empirically supported by studies on developed markets. Our findings regarding the cross-sectional relation between stock returns and liquidity is consistent with the view that emerging equity markets have a lower degree of integration with the global economy.     

Market integration and contagion: Evidence from Asian emerging stock and foreign exchange markets

This paper examines whether Asian emerging stock markets (India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand) have become integrated into world capital markets since their official liberalization dates by estimating and testing a dynamic integrated international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) using an asymmetric multivariate GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean approach. Also examined in this paper is whether there are pure contagion effects between stock and foreign exchange markets for each Asian country during the 1997 Asian crisis. The empirical results show that first, both currency and world market risks are priced and time-varying, suggesting that an international asset pricing model under PPP and constant price of risk might give rise to model misspecification. Second, the stock markets for India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand were segmented from the world capital markets before their liberalization dates, but all six markets have become fully integrated since then. Third, the market liberalization has reduced the cost of capital and price volatility for most of the countries. Finally, as for the contagion effects, strong positive impact of return shocks originating from the domestic stock market to its foreign exchange market during the crisis is found. This dynamic relationship between stock market and foreign exchange market is consistent with stock-oriented exchange rate models.     

Market power and risk-taking of banks: Some semiparametric evidence from emerging economies

We investigate the impact of market power of banks on their risk-taking. Appling bank-level data from 35 emerging economies during the period of 2000–2014 to our semiparametric model of the market power-bank risk nexus with the Bayesian inference, we present consistent evidence that there is a significant nonlinear relationship between market power and risk-taking of banks. Bank stability is found bolstered with increasing market power, but this relationship tends to weaken and even reverse as banks' market power grow further over a threshold level.     

The role of stock markets on environmental degradation: A comparative study of developed and emerging market economies across the globe

It is well established in the literature that stock markets increase both economic activities and energy consumption across countries. Therefore, it is commonly believed that stock markets are expected to have a significant effect on CO₂ emissions. However, it is not known whether these stock markets can contribute to more or less CO₂ emissions. Hence, the goal of this study is to examine the impact of stock market indicators on CO₂ emissions across a global panel of both developed and emerging market economies. The results establish that stock market indicators have a significant negative and positive impact on carbon emissions in developed and emerging market economies, respectively. Furthermore, the findings illustrate the presence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, implying that stronger stock markets lead to a further decline in carbon emissions. Given these findings, the study argues that the role of stock markets in the abatement of CO₂ emissions significantly varies across both developed and emerging market economies. Significant implications have to do with the fact that developed markets might have initiated effective policies on listed firms to minimize carbon emissions, while emerging markets are yet to achieve this.     

The demand for safe assets in emerging economies and global imbalances: New empirical evidence

Recent economic theory has singled out mismatches between the supply and the demand of safe financial assets in emerging countries as drivers of international capital flows and, ultimately, global current account imbalances. This paper assesses empirically the contribution of such “search for safe assets” to the size and composition of emerging economies’ international asset portfolios. Excess demand for safe assets in financially less‐developed countries would imply that these countries hold disproportionately high shares of their total portfolios in foreign assets. Moreover, financially less‐developed countries would hold disproportionately high shares of their foreign portfolios in financially developed countries, which are the major producers of ostensibly safe assets. This paper finds little empirical support for these predictions. Financially less‐developed countries allocate a larger proportion of their total holdings to domestic assets. Even when focusing on their foreign portfolios, there is no evidence of a general bias towards the assets of financially developed countries. Overall, asset mismatches do not appear to explain the asset allocation of financially less‐developed countries.     

Transmission of central bank communication to emerging economies: Evidence from the Korean stock market

This study analyzes the impact of US central bank communication on financial markets in emerging economies. We find that informal communication from the Fed positively influences the Korean stock market at a greater magnitude than the US stock market. The results show that the Korean stock market experienced higher excess return when Korea's monetary policy decisions are uncertain, suggesting that central bank communication in central countries could transmit to emerging economics through their monetary policy decisions and uncertainty. In addition, various portfolios and individual equities have a positive market risk-return tradeoff in the presence of Fed communication only.     

Competition in the banking sector: New evidence from a panel of emerging market economies and the financial crisis

This paper assesses competition across the banking systems in emerging market economies. The analysis employs the Panzar and Rosse (1987) methodology, spanning the period 2000–2012. The analysis emphasises the impact of the recent financial crisis on the extent of competition in these banking systems. The empirical findings are robust and consistent with those of previous studies, providing sufficient evidence in favour of monopolistic competition across all countries under investigation. The level of competition in these banking sectors seems to have undergone a significant decline after the recent financial crisis. This finding receives robust support from an alternative methodological approach.