The price impact of futures trades and their intraday seasonality

This study examines the price impact of futures trades and their intraday seasonality by analyzing the continuous trading session dataset of KOSPI 200 futures, including the opening and closing periods. For this purpose, the study analyzes the futures dataset that contains information on transaction times, trade directions, order sizes, and the types of investors initiating the transactions. The results suggest several novel findings. First, a substantial portion of the price impact of futures trades is persistent, indicating the presence of informed trading in the futures market. Second, informed trading is concentrated in the opening period and liquidity trading is concentrated in the closing period of the continuous trading session. Third, small trades usually have a greater price impact than large ones, supporting the existence of stealth trading by futures traders. Fourth, trades by institutional investors have a greater price impact than those by individuals, suggesting that institutional investors are better informed and/or more sophisticated than individual investors in the futures market.     

Intraday price formation and bid–ask spread components: A new approach using a cross‐market model

This study examines the intraday formation process of transaction prices and bid–ask spreads in the KOSPI 200 futures market. By extending the structural model of Madhavan, A., Richardson, M., and Roomans, M. ( 1997 ), we develop a unique cross‐market model that can decompose spread components and explain intraday price formation for the futures market by using the order flow information from the KOSPI 200 options market, which is a market that is closely related to the futures market as well as considered to be one of the most remarkable options markets in the world. The empirical results indicate that the model‐implied spread and the permanent component of the spread that results from informed trading tend to be underestimated without the inclusion of options market information. Further, the results imply that trades of in‐the‐money options, which have high delta values, generally incur a more adverse information cost component (the permanent spread component) of the futures market than those of out‐of‐the‐money options, which have relatively low delta values. Finally, we find that the adverse information cost component that is estimated from the cross‐market model exhibits a nearly U‐shaped intraday pattern; however, it sharply decreases at the end of the trading day. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Large trades and intraday futures price behavior

This study examines the effects of large trades executed by outside customer on the prices of futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We find that, on average, large buyer-initiated trades have a larger permanent price impact (information effect) than large seller-initiated trades, whereas the opposite is found for the temporary price impact (liquidity effects) of large trades. These results are consistent with previous findings for block and institutional trades in equity markets. However, we also find that the information effects of large sells are larger than large buys in bearish markets, whereas the results are the reverse in bullish markets. The liquidity price effects of buys are larger than the liquidity price effects of sells in bearish markets whereas the reverse results hold in bullish markets. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that the current economic condition is a key determinant of asymmetric price effects between large buys and large sells. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1147–1181, 2008     

Naming Products in China: Local or Foreign Branding

ABSTRACT

This study examines the effect of program trades on the price changes in the Korean stock index futures and spot markets employing intraday return and trading data. Program trades in the Korean stock market create an instant imbalance in market liquidity. However, their impact is very short-lived and limited in an economic sense. Moreover, there is little tendency for market returns to over-react to program trades. An increase in program trades results in higher spot market volatility but does not cause monotonically increasing futures market volatility. Overall, program trades do not destabilize the stock market in Korea despite some positive association between program trades and volatility.     

Does International Order Flow Contribute to Price Discovery in Futures Markets?

This study examines whether order flow originating from overseas contributes to price discovery in domestic futures markets. This issue is examined using a unique dataset for stock index futures traded on the Australian Securities Exchange that identifies the geographic location of computer servers on which orders are placed. We find that (i) transactions originating from overseas servers have a significant impact on the price volatility of stock index futures; (ii) trades initiated from international servers also have a permanent impact on price; and (iii) price movements caused by trades initiated from overseas servers lead those on domestic servers and make a greater contribution to price discovery. Our results confirm that international order flow is important in the price discovery process in domestic markets.     

Need for speed: Hard information processing in a high‐frequency world

I study the role of high‐frequency traders (HFTs) and non‐high‐frequency traders (nHFTs) in transmitting hard price information from the futures market to the stock market using an index arbitrage strategy. Using intraday transaction data with HFT identification, I find that HFTs process hard information faster and trade on it more aggressively than nHFTs. In terms of liquidity supply, HFTs are better at avoiding adverse selection than nHFTs. Consequently, HFTs enhance the linkage between the futures and stock markets, and significantly contribute to information efficiency in the stock market by reducing the delay between the stock and the futures markets.     

Intraday price discovery and volatility transmission in stock index and stock index futures markets: Evidence from China

Using high‐frequency data, this study investigates intraday price discovery and volatility transmission between the Chinese stock index and the newly established stock index futures markets in China. Although the Chinese stock index started a sharp decline immediately after the stock index futures were introduced, the cash market is found to play a more dominant role in the price discovery process. The new stock index futures market does not function well in its price discovery performance at its infancy stage, apparently due to high barriers to entry into this emerging futures market. Based on a newly proposed theoretically consistent asymmetric GARCH model, the results uncover strong bidirectional dependence in the intraday volatility of both markets. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Information transmission in electronic versus open‐outcry trading systems: An analysis of U.S. equity index futures markets

In this article the intraday price discovery process between regular index futures (floor trading) and E‐mini index futures (electronic trading) in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index futures markets is examined, using intraday data from the introduction of the E‐mini index futures to 2001. Using both information shares (Hasbrouck, J., 1995) and common long‐memory factor weights (Gonzalo, J., & Granger, C. W. J., 1995) techniques, we find that both E‐mini index futures and regular index futures contribute to the price discovery process. However, since September 1998, the contribution made by E‐mini index futures has been greater than that provided by regular index futures. Based on regression analysis, we have also found direct empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that the joint effects of operational efficiency and relative liquidity determine the greater contribution made towards price discovery by electronic trading relative to open‐outcry trading over time. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25: 679–715, 2005     

The determinants of price discovery on bitcoin markets

This paper investigates whether market quality, uncertainty, investor sentiment and attention, and macroeconomic news affect bitcoin price discovery in spot and futures markets. Over the period December 2017–March 2019, we find significant time variation in the contribution to price discovery of the two markets. Increases in price discovery are mainly driven by relative trading costs and volume, and uncertainty to a lesser extent. Additionally, medium-sized trades contain most information in terms of price discovery. Finally, higher news-based bitcoin sentiment increases the informational role of the futures market, while attention and macroeconomic news have no impact on price discovery.     

Transactions in futures markets: Informed or uninformed?

Using a proprietary data set from the Sydney Futures Exchange, this study reconciles an inconsistency in futures microstructure literature. One strand of the literature documents that single trades in futures markets contain information, whereas another strand finds that trade packages in futures markets do not contain information. This study controls for methodological and sample differences in examining the price impact of individual trades and trade packages. We find little evidence that transactions in futures markets contain information. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:1159–1174, 2007     

The intra‐day price discovery process between the Singapore Exchange and Taiwan Futures Exchange

This paper focuses on the increasing competition between exchanges for listing similar index futures contracts and the impact this has on information dissemination between various markets. Specifically, using both the Hasbrouck and Gonzalo–Granger methodologies for extracting the information content held in each market, a comparison of information efficiencies between the Singapore Exchange and the Taiwan Futures Exchange is examined for Taiwan Index Futures listed in both markets. The results show not only a common stochastic trend between index futures and their underlying indices, but also provide strong evidence to suggest price discovery primarily originates from the Singapore futures market. There are direct implications of this result for both financial exchanges and traders—in particular, that traders realize price determination can arise from both futures markets, and the need for exchanges to maintain a reputation as an information center for these similarly traded financial instruments. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22: 219–240, 2002     

Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the DJIA index and futures markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is the most widely quoted stock index worldwide. This article examines the minute-by-minute price discovery process and volatility spillovers between the DJIA index and the index futures recently launched by the CBOT. The Hasbrouck (1995) cointegrating model suggests that most of the price discovery takes place at the futures market. However, by examining the volatility spillovers between the markets based on a bivariate EGARCH model, a significant bidirectional information flow is found. That is, innovations in one market can predict the future volatility in another market, but the futures market volatility-spillovers to the stock market more than vice versa. Both markets also exhibit asymmetric volatility effects, with bad news having a greater impact on volatility than good news. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 911–930, 1999     

Do futures lead price discovery in electronic foreign exchange markets?

Using intraday data, this study investigates the contribution to the price discovery of Euro and Japanese Yen exchange rates in three foreign exchange markets based on electronic trading systems: the CME GLOBEX regular futures, E‐mini futures, and the EBS interdealer spot market. Contrary to evidence in equity markets and more recent evidence in foreign exchange markets, the spot market is found to consistently lead the price discovery process for both currencies during the sample period. Furthermore, E‐mini futures do not contribute more to the price discovery than the electronically traded regular futures. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:137–156, 2009     

指数期货套利交易策略设计

在期货市场上 ,指数期货是一种股票的避险工具。由于时间及其它因素 ,使得指数期货市场发生不平衡的现象 ,此一不平衡我们称之为套利空间。如何运用金融工程和信息技术来计算出其套利空间 ,为投资人赢得更多的利润 ,正是本研究的宗旨。本文针对指数期货的特性来寻找实时套利机会 ,明确地指出了买低卖高的方向及套利空间的大小 ,并给投资者设计了指数期货套利的交易策略。     

Is volatility risk priced in the KOSPI 200 index options market?

The negative volatility risk premium is understood as a result for a hedging demand against market declines. Although this negative volatility risk premium is observed in most index options markets, there are some doubts about its presence in the KOSPI 200 index options market. The majority of KOSPI 200 index option holders do not possess any position in the underlying market; the composition of trading groups of the KOSPI 200 index options significantly differs from that of its underlying index; in this circumstance, the presence of a hedging demand is questionable. This study shows that volatility risk does not require a premium in the KOSPI 200 index options market. Rather, jump fears influence KOSPI 200 options. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:797–825, 2009     

Strategic order splitting,order choice,and aggressiveness: Evidence from the Taiwan futures exchange

We investigate the strategic order‐splitting behavior and order aggressiveness of different types of traders using a unique dataset on the Taiwan Futures Exchange. By examining the trades and orders for each and every account, we find that, as compared with domestic institutional traders and individual traders, foreign institutional traders and futures proprietary firms are more likely to split their orders and it appears that the price adjustments after their trades are permanent. Foreign institutional traders and futures proprietary firms seem to be better informed, with their orders apparently being split so as to reveal their information on a gradual basis. Furthermore, we find that foreign institutional traders and futures proprietary firms use fewer market orders, choosing instead to submit aggressive limit orders, possibly due to their desire to make the most of their information advantage. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:1102–1129, 2009     

Informed trading in the index option market: The case of KOSPI 200 options

This study examines if informed trading is present in the index option market by analyzing the KOSPI 200 options, the most actively traded derivative product in the world. The spread decomposition model developed by Madhavan, Richardson, and Roomans (1997) is utilized and the adverse‐selection cost component of the spread estimated by the model is then used as a proxy for the degree of informed trading. We find that adverse‐selection costs constitute a nontrivial portion of the transaction costs in index options trading. Approximately one‐third of the spread can be accounted for by information asymmetry costs. A further analysis indicates that adverse‐selection costs are positively related with option delta. Our regression analysis shows that option‐related variables are significantly associated with estimated information asymmetry costs, even when controlling for proxies for informed trading in the index futures market. Finally, we find the evidence that foreign investors are better informed compared to domestic investors and that domestic institutions have an edge in terms of information over domestic individuals. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1118–1146, 2008     

The components of bid‐ask spread and their determinants: TAIFEX versus SGX‐DT

This paper compares the intraday components of bid‐ask spread in Taiwan stock index futures traded on Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX) and Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading Limited (SGX‐DT). Variables that determine the components of spread are also examined. SGX‐DT uses a floor trading system while TAIFEX uses an electronic call system. This study finds that both information asymmetry and order processing cost components exhibit U‐shaped patterns in the two markets, in contrast to previous findings for U.S. equity markets. Moreover, the information asymmetry components are lower in the TAIFEX relative to the SGX‐DT futures, suggesting that the continuous open outcry markets are more vulnerable to information asymmetry than the electronic call markets. The regression results show that volatility and information are the major determinants of the components while number of trades is not the major determinant of the order processing and information asymmetry components for both markets. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:835–860, 2004     

Do small traders contribute to price discovery? Evidence from the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index markets

Using one‐contract‐size trades in the Mini Hang Seng Index futures to proxy the activities of small traders, this study empirically investigates the information contribution of small futures traders to price discovery on the Hang Seng Index (HSI) markets. Estimated with the models of Gonzalo, J., and Granger, C. W. J. ( 1995 ) and Hasbrouck, J. ( 1995 ), the results show that small traders contribute about 16.8% to price discovery, a disproportionately high share considering their relatively low trading volume. The results also indicate that the Hang Seng Index futures (HSIF) market still has the largest information share (about 71.0%), whereas the HSI spot market has a 12.2% share. Our results suggest that small traders are not uninformed in the HSIF markets, and play an important role in price discovery. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:156–174, 2010     

Trading costs and price discovery across stock index futures and cash markets

The focus of this article is to test the trading cost hypothesis of price leadership, which predicts that the market with the lowest overall trading costs will react most quickly to new information. In an attempt to hold market microstructure effects constant and in contrast to previous studies, we examine intraday price leadership across the S&P 500, NYSE Composite, and MMI futures, and across the respective cash indexes—rather than between each futures and its associated cash index. We find that, among the futures, the S&P 500 exhibits price leadership over the other index futures, whereas among the cash indexes the MMI leads. Both findings are consistent with the trading cost hypothesis. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 475–498, 1999