Pro-poor growth,poverty and inequality in rural Vietnam

This study explores the effects of Vietnam's transition on the welfare of different ethnic groups in rural Vietnam. It draws on three rounds of national household surveys in 2002, 2004 and 2006. It is first observed that the pace of poverty reduction for minorities surpassed the majority over the period 2002–2006, although poor people were still concentrated in the minority groups throughout the period. Secondly, the disparity in living standards has been widening. In particular, inequality within both the majority and minority groups increased over the period. Thirdly, the study shows that the effect of economic growth on poverty is estimated to have been greater if inequality remained constant. It is also noted that the impacts of economic growth on poverty vary across different ethnic groups. Finally, regression decompositions of within inequality have confirmed that the main driver of inequality is not the same among ethnic groups. Given the diversity across different ethnic groups, we can conclude that government policy aimed at equal access to infrastructure and more equal distribution of assets, such as land, for ethnic minority groups would lead to more equal distribution of consumption and poverty reduction of those groups. Also, consideration of local needs would be necessary in designing and implementing public policies, given the heterogeneous socio-economic circumstances surrounding each ethnic minority group.     

China's vulnerability to currency crisis: A KLR signals approach

In this paper we use the Kaminsky–Lizondo–Reinhart (KLR) [Kaminsky, G., Lizondo, S., Reinhart, C., 1998. Leading Indicators of Currency Crises. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 45, 1–48.] approach to conduct an ex-post study of the probabilities of China suffering a currency crisis during the period of January 1991 to December 2004. Two high-probability periods are identified: July 1992–July 1993 and August 1998–May 1999. The first period correctly predicts China's 1994 devaluation. The second period predicts currency devaluation in the aftermath of the Asian crisis, which did not occur. The results of the model indicate that the fundamentals were weak enough for China to experience contagion of the Asian crisis, and raise the question of the possible role of China's institutional arrangements in preventing the crisis. The paper further analyzes the economic fundamentals of China that drive the high probability of crises, and provides some suggestions for further reform.     

Decomposition of the increase in earnings inequality in urban China: A distributional approach

This study examines changes in Chinese urban income distribution from 1987 to 1996 and 1996 to 2004 using nationwide household data and investigates the causes of these changes. The Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2007, 2009) method based on unconditional quantile regressions is used to decompose changes in income distribution and income inequality measures, such as variance and a 10:90 ratio. The decomposition results show that wage structure effects, such as a widening gender earnings gap, increases in returns to college education, and increases in earnings differentials between industries, company ownership types, and regions, have been the major contributors to the overall increases in income inequality. It was also found that at different points on the income distribution (e.g., the lower or upper half), the contributing factors that increase income inequality are different.     

Poverty and vulnerability in rural China: effects of taxation

This paper studies the impact of taxation on poverty and ex ante vulnerability of households in rural China based on national household survey data in 1988, 1995 and 2002. It has been confirmed that (i) poverty and vulnerability have reduced significantly with a great deal of geographical disparity; (ii) education, land, and access to infrastructure and irrigation facilities are the key factors to reduce vulnerability; and (iii) the highly regressive tax system increased farmers’ poverty and vulnerability. The abolishment of rural tax since 2006 would thus have a significant negative impact on both poverty and vulnerability of rural households.     

论生产要素的劳动化

为了正确制定上海中药产业发展战略 ,准确地对上海中药产业发展在全国定位显得尤为重要。本文基于离差最大化决策法原理对上海中药产业发展在全国中药行业进行定位。由于该原理具有较强客观性 ,因而定位客观、公正     

Knowledge of entrepreneurial support and entrepreneurial intention in the rural provinces of South Africa

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether knowledge about government entrepreneurial support and entrepreneurial support institutions and their services have an influence on entrepreneurial intention and its antecedents. The study was carried out by means of a cross-sectional survey using a structured questionnaire. The sample consisted of 355 final-year commerce students from two universities located in two of South Africa’s most rural provinces, namely the Eastern Cape and Limpopo. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences was used to analyse the data. The results indicate that the respondents could hardly access information about entrepreneurial support offered by the government and support services available, and had a very low level of knowledge about these support services. The findings revealed some significant relationships between the knowledge of entrepreneurial support and entrepreneurial intention, perceived behavioural control, subjective norms and entrepreneurial self-efficacy.     

Modernization, weather variability, and vulnerability to famine

This paper shows that under weather variability the transformation from a rural to an incomplete market economy can increase the vulnerability of peasants to famine. This can occur even if improvements in technology have raised agricultural productivity and made production less responsive to weather variability. Indeed, negative environmental shocks can produce a drop in wages that outweighs the increase in wages due to an equivalent positive environmental shock. Consequently, the amount of grain stored increases more slowly in good seasons than it decreases in bad ones. This paper gives new insights on the catastrophic effects produced by widespread droughts in India during the second half of the 19th century. Notwithstanding the introduction of new modes of production and the modernization of infrastructures, the interaction between environmental variability and new institutional arrangements might have contributed to increase the vulnerability of peasants to famine.     

FDI and inequality in Vietnam: An approach with census data

We investigate the effects of inward FDI on income distribution and absolute living standards in Vietnam using census data from 1989 to 2009. We compute the number of employees of foreign establishments in each of Vietnam's provinces for each year, and use that as a measure of local FDI. We estimate the effects of FDI on local households’ living standards as reported in the data, broken down by educational background to allow us to analyze effects on inequality. Estimates based on the repeated cross section indicate that rising FDI in a province is associated with a slight decline in living standards for households there if they do not have a member employed by the foreign enterprises, with only modest gains for households who do have a member employed by the foreign enterprises. These estimates may reflect composition effects, however, since we find large movements of people toward the provinces receiving the FDI. The findings show that measuring the effect of FDI on household welfare is more difficult than measuring the effect of trade policy, and may pose a difficulty for the view of FDI as a general anti-poverty strategy.     

The economic development approach to legal reform for rural women: A methodological alternative

Legislative efforts to promote rural women's economic productivity have focused on strategies for improving access to and control over agricultural resources. Women make up 50 per cent of the world's farmers, but in many developing countries they are unable to hold or manage productive resources in their own name. Most legal proposals recommend family law reform as the entry point for change. This article argues for a broader approach. All the laws that affect rural economic development should be evaluated and linked in ways that promote rural women's integration into the economic mainstream. In agriculture the‐most important legislation is natural resource management, local government development and agricultural development and agricultural investment laws, including research, intellectual property protection, cooperatives, banking and marketing. Each law should be assessed from the perspective of four generic development attributes: how it contributes to women's representation in policymaking; what economic benefits it provides; whether it facilitates the evolution of organisational structures to help women attract capital; and whether there are clear systems for enforcing rights and therefore minimising risk. Next, the process is reversed to determine how the laws collectively support each of the four areas. This methodology allows the researcher to tease out and rearrange essential elements of a comprehensive enabling environment that provide a sufficient level of institutional support in all four areas across the entire spectrum of agricultural development.     

Productivity growth, technological progress, and efficiency change in chinese agriculture after rural economic reforms: A DEA approach

This study applies a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to analyze total factor productivity, technology, and efficiency changes in Chinese agricultural production from 1984 to 1993. Twenty-nine provinces in China were classified into advanced-technology and low-technology categories. The Malmquist (1953) productivity measures were decomposed into two components: technical change index and efficiency change index. The results show that total factor productivity has risen in most provinces for both technology categories during the 1984–1993 period. Technical progress was mostly attributed to Chinese agricultural productivity growth after the rural economic reforms. The deterioration in technical efficiency in many provinces indicates China has great potential to increase productivity through improved technical efficiency. Enhancing rural education and research and development (R&D) in agriculture may also help farmers to improve technical efficiency and productivity in agricultural production.     

Poverty and vulnerability in the Punjab,Pakistan: A multilevel analysis

This study estimates the prevalence and extent of vulnerability to poverty in the Punjab province of Pakistan. A multilevel model is used to analyze survey data of about 90,000 households distributed across 150 towns/tehsils. Empirical estimates show that the vulnerability rate is higher than the rate of poverty, and poverty-induced vulnerability is higher than risk-induced vulnerability. Moreover, idiosyncratic-vulnerability is higher than covariate-vulnerability. Unlike previous studies that find poverty to be a rural phenomenon, this research shows that poverty and vulnerability are equally high in urban areas. A high level of urban vulnerability adds urgency to anti-poverty interventions given a rapid urbanization in Pakistan.     

Formal and informal rural credit in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam: Interaction and accessibility

This paper examines the factors influencing rural households’ access to credit in the Vietnamese market. Analysis confirms an interaction effect between informal and formal credit sectors in which informal credit positively influences accessibility to microcredit programs. Ignoring this interaction effect may lead to microcredit providers making loan decisions that are less than optimal. In the formal credit sector, the lowest income group faces more credit rationing than other groups, despite the fact that microcredit programs are designed to target households at the bottom of the income pyramid. Results demonstrate that land holding status, informal interest, and informal loan duration are important factors influencing access to informal credit. Factors influencing microcredit accessibility include local government employee status, credit group membership, a “poor” certificate, educational attainment, working skills and village road access. To reduce reliance on informal credit and improve microcredit accessibility, rural households should actively participate in a microcredit group.     

Economic growth,inequality, and poverty in Vietnam

This study examines how poverty reduction has been associated with economic growth and inequality in Vietnam. It finds that although the speed of poverty reduction was lower in the 2000s than in the 1990s, economic growth was more pro‐poor in the latter period. During the 1993–98 period, expenditure inequality increased and the poverty reduction during this period was mainly caused by economic growth. During the 2004–08 period, however, expenditure inequality decreased, thereby contributing to poverty reduction. The poverty incidence declined by around 5 percentage points, of which expenditure growth and redistribution contributed 2.8 and 2.2 percentage points of poverty reduction, respectively.     

Trade liberalization,tariff redundancy and inflation: A methodological exploration applied to Argentina

Zusammenfassung Handelsliberalisierung, Zollredundanz und Inflation: Eine auf Argentinien angewandte methodologische Untersuchung. — Der Hauptzweck dieser Arbeit besteht darin, einen einfachen Rahmen für die Analyse der Auswirkungen verschiedener Ma\nahmen der Importliberalisierung auf die Wettbewerbsf?higkeit des gewerblichen Sektors zu entwickeln. Im Fall von Argentinien wird gezeigt, da\ das Hauptinstrument zur Beseitigung der Zollredundanz die Wechselkurspolitik der Regierung war. Zollsenkungen waren von zweitrangiger Bedeutung. Die Zollredundanz scheint bis Anfang 1979 beseitigt gewesen zu sein, zu einer Zeit, in der die Beh?rden begannen, diskriminierende Zollsenkungen vorzunehmen. Aus der Redundanzanalyse ergeben sich Hinweise auf das Ausmaβ der m?glichen Abschw?chung der Preissteigerungsrate, die bei langfristiger Konvergenz der in- und ausl?ndischen Preise erwartet werden kann. Konvergenzberechnungen, die auf der Kaufkraftparit?ten-these basieren, k?nnen anscheinend nur dann korrekt verwendet werden, wenn die Preise einzelner Produkte auf den in- und ausl?ndischen M?rkten verglichen werden. Die dargestellten Methoden k?nnen zwar verbessert werden, aber die wichtigsten Folgerungen für die Politik dürften sich bereits aus der durchgefìhrten Analyse klar ergeben.

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Résumé La libéralisation du commerce, l’excédent tarifaire, et l’inflation: une exploration méthodologique appliquée à l’Argentine. — Le but principal de cet article est présenter un cadre simple pour analyser l’impacte des plusieurs mesures de libéralisation d’importation sur la capacité de concurrence potentielle du secteur industriel. Pour l’Argentine, les auteurs démontrent que l’instrument clef pour éliminer l’excédent tarifaire était la politique de taux de change des autorités. Les réductions des tarifs externes étaient moins importantes. Il semble clair que les autorités avaient éliminé l’excédent tarifaire au début de 1979, au moment où ils commen?aient à réduire les tarifs d’une manière discriminatoire. L’analyse de l’excédent indique la mesure possible de la décélération de prix qui peut être attendue sous la condition d’une convergence de prix à long terme. Actuellement il para?t que les calculs de convergence qui basent sur la thèse de PPA peuvent être appliqués correctement seulement si les prix des biens individuels sur les marchés internationaux et locaux sont comparés. En effet la méthodologie présentée ici peut être perfectionnée, mais cette analyse devrait déjà avoir montré les principales implications politiques.

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Resumen Liberalization del comercio, redundancia tarifaria e inflación: una exploration metodológica aplicada a la Argentina. — El propósito principal de este artículo es presentar un marco simple para analizar el impacto de varias medidas de liberalización de importaciones sobre la competitividad potencial del sector industrial. En el caso de Argentina se demuestra que el instrumenta clave al eliminar la redundancia tarifaria fue la política cambiaria de las autoridades. Las reducciones en las tarifas extemas fueron de importancia secundaria. Parece claro que la redundancia tarifaria había sido eliminada ya a principios de 1979, en una época en que las autoridades comenzaron a aplicar reducciones tarifarias discriminatorias. El análisis de redundancia indica el posible monte de desaceleracion de precios que puede esperarse bajo una convergencia de precios de largo plazo. En verdad pareciera que los cálculos de convergencia basados en la tesis PPP pueden ser utilizados correctamente solo cuando se comparan precios de productos individuates en los mercados international y doméstico. La metodología presentada aquí puede ser refinada de varias maneras, pero las principales implicaciones de política deberian quedar claras de acuerdo al análisis precedente.