WTO谈判中的发展中大国与发展中国家谈判联盟——兼论中国参与发展中国家谈判联盟的策略

发展中国家谈判联盟在历次GATT/WTO谈判中都发挥着重要作用,已成为决定多边贸易谈判成功与否的重要力量。发展中大国往往成为谈判联盟的领导者,成为联盟公共产品的主要供应者,促使大国如此行动的原因在于大国在追求经济利益的同时,也在一定程度上追求大国威望、领导权等政治利益。印度作为发展中大国在所有参与的谈判联盟中都成为主要的领导者,对印度的研究有助于我们加深对发展中大国与发展中国家谈判联盟关系的理解。从我国的国家利益出发,本文提出了我国参与发展中国家谈判联盟的策略。     

International Marketing of Services and Developing Countries

ABSTRACT

The internationalization of services has gained great momentum in recent years. This article analyzes prospects of developing countries in the international marketing of services by examining past trends of service exports by developing countries, and relating these to demand for services in developed countries through a series of autoregression analyses. Results show that developing countries were marginalized in the international market for services over the 20-year study period. However, there are bright future prospects. The greatest prospects would be in travel services, followed by transport services. Implications of the findings for government policy in the service sector are discussed.     

Foreign Debt and Domestic Savings in Developing Countries

ABSTRACT

This paper addresses the question of potential causality between foreign debt and domestic savings within the context of developing countries. The literature provides evidence insofar as foreign debt and development is concerned, but little attention has been given so far to internal potential for capital formation. We provide a theoretical framework and test its relevance by using 1975–2004 data for two groups of countries: sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America with the Caribbean. With the use of instrumental variables we find that foreign debt impacts negatively on domestic savings, especially in the long run. The results are not susceptible to the choice of countries or outliers. However, the relationship between foreign debt and savings seems to depend on debt accumulation gaining significance only after surpassing a country's specific threshold.

RESUMEN. Este estudio aborda el tema de la causalidad potencial que existe entre la deuda externa y el ahorro interno en el ámbito de los países en desarrollo. La literatura existente contiene pruebas sobre la deuda externa y el desarrollo pero, hasta el momento, ha dedicado poca atención a todo lo concerniente al potencial doméstico para la formación de capital (capitalización). Hemos trazado un marco teórico y puesto a prueba su relevancia usando datos del período 1975–2004 para dos grupos de países: África subsahariana y Latinoamérica incluyendo El Caribe. Los instrumentos variables utilizados nos permitieron encontrar el impacto negativo que la deuda externa ejerce sobre el ahorro interno, especialmente a largo plazo. Estos resultados no son susceptibles a la selección de países específicos o aislados. No obstante, la relación entre la deuda externa y el ahorro parece depender de la acumulación de la deuda, adquiriendo más significado solo después de pasar el umbral específico de un país.

RESUMO. Este estudo aborda a questão da causalidade possível entre o débito estrangeiro e a poupança interna no contexto dos países em desenvolvimento. A literatura apresenta evidências sobre débito externo e desenvolvimento, mas há pouca informação em relação ao potencial interno para a formação de capital. Mostramos uma estrutura teórica e testamos a sua relevância, utilizando dados de 1975 até 2004 para dois grupos de países: a África Subsaariana e a América Latina com o Caribe. Com a ajuda das variáveis instrumentais, descobrimos um impacto negativo do débito estrangeiro sobre a poupança interna, especialmente a longo prazo. Os resultados não são suscetíveis à escolha de países ou de dados atípicos (outliers). A relação entre débito externo e poupança, entretanto, parece depender do acúmulo do débito, tornando-se importante, apenas no caso de ultrapassar um limiar específico do país.     

Fairness in International Trade Negotiations: Developing Countries in the GATT and WTO

Does fairness matter in the hard bargaining and horse‐trading that is associated with trade negotiations? This paper presents a positivist analysis of the particular concepts of fairness that developing countries have appealed to in their trade negotiations within the auspices of the GATT and WTO, how these notions have evolved, and the impact that they have had on negotiated outcomes. Treating the concept of fairness as my central dependent variable, I argue that the notion of fairness can only be understood in terms of the institutional context it is embedded in, which includes institutional structure as well as the participatory processes that underlie it. I advance three hypotheses on the relationship between institutional context: the fairness discourse, and the influence and manoeuvre that member countries can have in shaping that discourse. Focusing on the role of fairness in the negotiation positions of developing countries, I explain its substance and evolution through learning and adaptation by these countries within the very particular institutions of the GATT and the WTO, and the coalitions they form a part of and interact within.     

The G20 at the Cancun Ministerial: Developing Countries and Their Evolving Coalitions in the WTO

In large measure, the voice that developing countries were able to exercise in Cancun was a result of their effective coalition formation. In this paper we present a brief overview of the various coalitions that played an important role at Cancun. The greater part of this paper focuses on one among these various coalitions: the G20 on agriculture. The G20 presents an especially fascinating case of a coalition that combined a great diversity of members and apparently incompatible interests. All theoretical reasoning and historical precedent predicted that the group would collapse in the endgame. And yet the group survived. We investigate the sources of the unity of this group and trace them to a process of learning that allowed the group to acquire certain structural features and develop strategies that helped to cement it further. While our central dependent variable is the cohesion of the G20, we also address the derivative question of the costs and benefits of maintaining such coalitions. The Cancun coalitions give us an excellent case of coalitions that managed to retain their cohesion, but also ended up with a situation of no agreement rather than a fulfilment of even some of their demands. We examine some of the causes behind the impasse in the negotiation process and suggest ways in which future outcomes could be improved.     

Trade Logistics in Developing Countries: The Case of the Middle East and North Africa

This paper presents an analysis of obstacles facing exporting firms in developing countries by diagnosing the efficiency of trade logistics in the Middle East and North Africa region (MNA). Using logistics chain analysis for six export commodities, it presents evidence that transport and non‐transport logistics costs for export commodities from the MNA region are quite substantial, ranging from 7–25 per cent of landed product prices. Underlying these costs are key bottlenecks identified as: inefficient trucking and transport services, low export volume leading to long shipping times and the need for costly inventory accumulation, aggressive, obstructive customs authorities and procedures, low and inconsistent product quality, an underdeveloped transport intermediary sector, inefficient cross‐border transit procedures and others. Recommended actions to address developing a national transport policy, overhauling the regulatory regime for the trucking sector, export promotion measures, increasing competition in port and air freight services, reorienting customs authorities towards trade facilitation and developing cross‐border transit procedures similar to the TIR Carnets model.     

Understanding Consumer Ethnocentrism in Developing Countries: Case Bangladesh

ABSTRACT

This article argues that the traditional belief that “consumer ethnocentrism is a phenomenon of developed countries only” is no longer true. To establish this argument, our study assesses the applicability of the Consumer Ethnocentric Tendencies Scale (CETSCALE) to Bangladesh by judging the unidimensionality feature of the same. The methodology is based on a sample of 788 respondents collected from 27 districts in Bangladesh. Statistically significant results show that for three chosen sociodemographic groups, namely, students, job holders, and businesspersons, the original CETSCALE is to a large extent applicable as those groups have shown positive attitudes in retaining 12 to 14 items of the 17 items of the original scale. However, the groups and the respondents as a whole did not agree with the unidimensionality feature of the CETSCALE. Moreover, the results of the study show that Bangladeshi consumers in greater extent prefer to see “Made in Bangladesh” tags when buying consumer products that Bangladeshi businesses can produce locally—a significant potential threat to international business that multinational companies need to address.     

Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade

This paper discusses the potential impacts of services trade liberalisation on developing countries and reviews existing quantitative studies. Its purpose is to distill themes from current literature rather than to advocate specific policy changes. The picture emerging is one of valiant attempts to quantify in the presence of formidable analytical and data problems yielding only a clouded image of likely impacts on trade, consumption, production and welfare emerging to the point that the policy implications of results are not always clear. A central intuition would seem to be that with genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation in services that are seemingly considerably labour‐intensive in delivery, the potential should be there for significant developing country gains from global liberalisation allowing full cross‐border delivery. However, this picture is neither fully endorsed by available studies, neither is it explicitly contradicted. This seems to be the case for a number of reasons. One difficulty with the studies is that the conceptual underpinnings of what determines trade in services and how this trade differs analytically from that of trade in goods (if at all) is an issue prior to assessments of impacts of liberalisation of trade in services on developing countries being discussed. Key issues here are the treatment of mobility for service providers (both firms and workers), and the differing analytical structures needed to analyse individual service items (banking, insurance, telecoms, etc.). Some recent analytical work suggests that liber‐alisation in some service items, such as banking, need not always yield gains, and this contrasts with quantitative studies where analytical structures mirror conventional trade in goods treatments. The discussion and measurement of barriers to service trade in both developed and developing countries is also problematic. One is talking of domestic regulation, entry barriers, portability of providers, competition policy regimes more so than only barriers at national borders, as with tariffs. Both representing and quantifying such barriers raise major difficulties, and these are also spelled out in the paper. Which barriers actually restrict trade, and which do not because they are redundant is one issue, for instance. It is also often misleading to represent barriers in simple ad valorem equivalent form. As a result, numerical modelling work on the effects of service trade barriers which is based on ad valorem equivalent modelling is often not fully convincing. In addition, individual country results vary considerably across studies in ways that it is frequently hard for outsiders to understand. Studies do, however, point towards a tentative conclusion that effects are small and positive for developed and most developing countries if FDI flow changes accompanying service trade liberalisation are excluded from the analysis, but much larger and more variable across countries if they are present. This could be taken to suggest that mode 3 GATS liberalisation (roughly captured in some studies) might be important for developing countries; but mode 4 GATS liberalisation could be even more important given large barriers to labour flows across countries. Thus, if service trade liberalisation is thought of primarily as a surrogate for improved functioning of global factor markets in which more capital flows to developing countries and more labour flows from them to developed countries, then developing countries could benefit in a major way from genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation. Developing countries fear, however, that in global negotiations on services liberalisation where there is an asymmetry of power that largely one‐sided liberalisation may be the outcome, and their gains will be correspondingly limited. The paper concludes by evaluating econometric studies on linkage between services liberalisation and country growth rules, and briefly discusses some key sectoral issues in health services and transportation.     

Business Environment Index for Developing Countries: The Case of Latin America

This article develops a new business environment index with indicators that are appropriate, broadly available for developing regions, and, most importantly, are not double-edged. We used the index to analyze the business environment in Latin America, and it suggests the main role of basic economic principles, institutional economics approach and historical context. We propose the identification of an interdisciplinary variable as well as interpretation of the index, based on 10 factors divided into three dimensions (economic, institutional, and social). The novelty is in the consideration of past values; it is neither based on popularity votes, and nor does it favor large economies.     

Developing Countries in the WTO System: Applying Robert Hudec's Analysis to the Doha Round

In his 1987 Developing Countries in the GATT System, Robert Hudec concluded that the identity of developing countries in the GATT system was primarily a matter of their demanding non‐reciprocal and preferential treatment, developed countries responding grudgingly to those demands and that this situation had been unfruitful either to support developing country reforms or to discipline developed country restrictions aimed at developing countries. Hudec was pessimistic about the relationship becoming more productive, but his expression of despair offered a glimmer of hope: ‘There are those who believe that the GATT has become so committed to the current policy that the only way to change it would be to start a new organization’. A new organisation was started, the World Trade Organization, but has the WTO achieved what Hudec hoped a new organisation might? At the 1987–95 Uruguay Round, developing country leaders acted as Hudec had hoped. They used international rules and bindings as leverage to support their own internally‐driven reforms; to overcome generations of accumulated protection, to lock in reforms against the backsliding that had undone previous reforms. Dealing with the Uruguay Round's ‘unbalanced outcome’ and the overlapping ‘implementation problem’ have shaped the Doha Round, but the negotiations have misconceived and mismanaged both issues. Rather than seeking to identify their real economics, the negotiations have gone back to the traditional idea of special and differential treatment. Perhaps the largest cost of this mismanagement is that in many developing countries the unilateral momentum for liberalisation has waned. To the extent that the Doha negotiations have drawn attention away from the domestic issues that were the basis of developing country liberalisation – and enhanced the status of negotiators relative to the leaders who fought at home for reform – they have contributed to that waning.     

Public-Sector Accounting and E-Governance in Developing Countries: Case of Sri Lanka

This article analyzes how new public financial management system should address the efficiency and effectiveness of the public sector and the emerging accrual basis accounting with e-governance for greater e-transparency on public-sector accounting in Sri Lanka. Despite the setting up of e-framework in 1983, the Sri Lankan public-sector accountancy environment during the last two decades raises concerns about efficiency, effectiveness, and accountability of the e-framework. The findings provide evidence of the importance of the economy and efficiency in the usage of public funds to provide more convenient access to government accounting information for citizens in Sri Lanka.     

世贸组织香港会议对发展中国家尤其重要

在参加了G20财长和央行行长会议及中美联合经济委员会会议之后，世界银行行长沃尔福威茨10月18日在北京召开了新闻发布会，此行是沃尔福威茨今年6月就任世行行长以来首次访华。     

Developing Countries as Plaintiffs and Defendants in GATT/WTO Trade Disputes

Developing countries have been increasing their participation in the formal institutions and proceedings of the multilateral trading system. A prominent example is their more frequent involvement as defendants and plaintiffs in GATT/WTO trade disputes. This paper provides an initial economic appraisal of developing country performance in the GATT/WTO dispute settlement system. We measure the economic resolution of these disputes through trade liberalisation gains, and our results suggest that developing country plaintiffs have had more success under WTO disputes than was the case under the GATT. We also document evidence on potential determinants of this success: the capacity for plaintiffs to make credible retaliatory threats and the guilty determinations by GATT/WTO panels. Finally, there is also some evidence that developing countries have recognised the importance of retaliatory threats and have responded by changing their pattern of dispute initiation under the WTO to better take advantage of the instances in which they have sufficient leverage to threaten retaliation and induce compliance with GATT/WTO obligations.