Time to build capital: Revisiting investment-cash-flow sensitivities

A large body of empirical work has established the significance of cash flow in explaining investment dynamics. This finding is further taken as evidence of capital market imperfections. We show, using a perfect capital markets model, that time-to-build for capital projects creates an investment-cash-flow sensitivity as found in empirical studies that may not be indicative of capital market frictions. The result is due to mis-specification present in empirical investment-q equations under time-to-build investment. In addition, time aggregation error can give rise to cash-flow effects independently of the time-to-build effect. Importantly, both errors arise independently of potential measurement error in q. Evidence from a large panel of U.K. manufacturing firms confirms the validity of the time-to-build investment channel.     

R&D and Tobin's q in an emerging financial market: the case of the Athens Stock Exchange

This paper aims at providing further evidence on the consequences of R&D investment on Tobin's q for firms publicly traded in an emerging financial market. Panel data methodology is applied using data for the manufacturing and computer firms listed in the Athens Stock Exchange, a market classified as emerging by the major securities analysts, for the period 1996–2004. The empirical findings show first, that the Greek firms' R&D investment effect on the market value of a firm is consistent with other US and European studies. Second, the impact of the R&D investment on the market value is higher for small firms. The findings of this paper may have significant industrial and technological policy implications for other emerging markets sharing similar characteristics to Greece. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hostile–vs.–white‐knight bidders

We examine the hypothesis that white knights enter control contests to spend free cash flow instead of paying it out to shareholders. Tobin's q is used to measure management's inclination to invest in negative NPV investments. We find that historically, white knights have over‐invested and their acquisition of the target is one more negative NPV investment. Alternatively, hostile bidders’ past investment decisions have increased shareholder wealth. Furthermore, white knights’ returns upon the announcement of their bid have a significant negative relationship with free cash flow, implying that their bid reveals information about white knights management's investment decisions. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales in the valuation of the firm and its assets

This paper presents a simple framework for the valuation of compound options within shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales. The shadow cost includes two components. The first component is the product of pure information cost due to imperfect knowledge and heterogeneous expectations. The second component represents the additional cost caused by the short-selling constraint. Information costs are linked to Merton's (1987. Journal of Finance 42, 510) model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information, CAPMI. This model is extended by Wu et al. (1996. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 7, 136) who propose an incomplete-information capital market equilibrium with heterogeneous expectations and short sale restrictions, GCAPM. This model is used in our paper to provide for the first time in the literature analytic solutions for derivatives in the presence of both shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales.When deriving the compound call option formula, we consider a call option on a stock, which is itself an option on the assets of the firm. Our methodology incorporates shadow costs of incomplete information and short sales on the firm's assets as well as the effects of leverage in the capital structure. The formula can be useful in the valuation of several corporate liabilities in the presence of information uncertainty and short sales constraints about the firm and its cash flows. Our analysis can be used for the valuation of several real options.     

The structure of british industry's sales in foreign markets

The structure of British industry's foreign sales is analysed by its principal components: exports, sales arising from licenses issued abroad and the output from facilities financed by British foreign direct investment. Total foreign sales are analysed by industry and by foreign market and differences in structure on both these dimensions are considerable. The literature is analysed in order to determine a preliminary set of variables which explain the structure at this highly aggregated level. Examination of the data allows us to focus on the most important explanatory variables, which include exchange rates, government policies and supply and demand factors.     

Exploring environmental,social, and governance disclosure effects on the S&P 500 financial performance

Much of the literature measuring the relationship between environmental, social, and governance (ESG) scores and firm performance treats the score as a measure of sustainability performance. In this study, we treat a firm's ESG score as a demonstration of strategic choice in the level of transparency that results in increased firm performance as measured by Tobin's Q and return on assets. Performance differences are a result of choice moderated by the size of the firm as measured by employees and sales. We analyze 467 firms in the S&P 500 from 2009 to 2015. Applying legitimacy and stakeholder theory, we find that there is significant difference between groups with respect to disclosure and performance. The results of quartile analysis by sales, capitalization, and Tobin's Q are relevant to understand the influence that the ESG score has on financial performance. ESG influences on Tobin's Q are greatest for large firms as measured by sales, as opposed to the ESG affects on Tobin's Q and return on asset for smallest firms as measured by market capitalization.     

Intangible capital in the pharmaceutical and chemical industry

We investigate whether measures of intangible capital based on advertising and R&D can explain variation in Tobin's Q ratio for the pharmaceutical and chemical industry. The study is motivated by prior literature studying this relation in other industries, recent literature investigating intangible capital in this industry, and the larger controversy about whether stock valuations have been high due to irrational investors or large investment in intangible capital. We find that our measures of intangible capital are statistically significant determinants of Q and explain 20% of the variation in our sample. When age and industry are incorporated into the model our explanatory power reaches 25%.     

A re-examination of the q theory of investment using u.s. firm data

Investment models based on Tobin's q are theoretically appealing, but they have been an empirical disappointment when applied to aggregate time-series data. This paper explores two potential explanations for the poor empirical performance of q investment models, problems arising from aggregation and imperfect competition. The results suggest that aggregation is responsible for spurious evidence of dynamic misspecification and at least partially responsible for an upward bias in estimated adjustment costs. The evidence also suggests that imperfect competition in output markets may have an effect on the investment behaviour of some firms.     

A real options approach to valuing and negotiating licensing agreements

We apply real options modeling to a common pharmaceutical industry licensing arrangement to take into account various uncertainties and the flexibility value. The managerial flexibility is limited to the project abandonment option. We extend previous work by incorporating the phases required to bring the project from patent approval to market. We also incorporate a deterministic variable into the cash flow process that provides a realistic product lifecycle. We focus on the allocation of project value between licensor and licensee, i.e., the so-called “profit split” ratio (PSR) because it is commonly used in practice to negotiate terms. We find: (1) Ignoring the managerial flexibility in valuation may cause the licensee to either forego an acceptable deal or enter into an inferior deal. (2) The magnitude of project profitability as well as cost and sales uncertainty affects the licensor's bargaining power over compensation for granting abandonment flexibility to the licensee. (3) Managers must exercise care when estimating sales volatility because the flexibility value is more sensitive to sales volatility than it is to cost volatility. (4) Failure to incorporate the product lifecycle will produce suboptimal capital investment decisions.     

卖空管制放松与上市公司现金股利：促进还是抑制？

基于2006—2020年中国A股上市公司的数据,验证卖空管制放松对上市公司现金股利分配的影响。研究发现,相比于不可卖空的公司,可卖空公司在被列入卖空标的后,其现金股利分配意愿、分配规模与分配平稳性均显著提升。机制检验发现,卖空管制放松对现金股利分配的促进在代理问题严重、投资机会少的公司中更显著,这支持了代理成本机制;同时,在信号传递能力强、信号传递需求大的公司中,卖空管制放松对现金股利分配的促进更显著,这支持了信号传递机制。进一步分析发现,现金股利分配能力不足的公司在应对卖空压力时并未使用“高送转”作为替代。而对于我国资本市场中广泛存在的达标式分配,卖空管制放松能够产生抑制作用,且抑制作用体现在没有再融资需求的公司中。研究表明,卖空管制放松促进了上市公司现金股利分配,卖空机制能够为我国资本市场中的现金股利监管提供市场化路径。     

Value Relevance of Multinationality: Evidence from Korean Firms

The purpose of this study is to examine the valuation effects of multinationality in Korean firms and to identify the role of multinationality in internalization theory. We hypothesize that the market positively values the multinational activities of Korean firms, which are operating in a small open economy in which firms have strong motivations for internationalization. We use Ohlson's (1995, Contemporary Accounting Research, 11, 661) value model and document the positive effect for multinational firms compared to domestic firms, as well as the positive effect of multinationality on firm value. These results are robust across studies, as indicated by Tobin's q measure, as well as across years. We also hypothesize that multinationality mediates or moderates the relationship between intangibility and firm value that is proposed in internalization theory. We do not find supporting evidence for a mediated influence of intangibility through multinationality on firm value nor for a moderated influence of intangibility on firm value. We find that multinationality and intangibility directly and independently influence firm value, without any interference from each other. These results are also robust across studies, as indicated by Tobin's q measure. Finally, we find that multinationality in Korean firms has never lost its importance, even during the global financial crisis in the year 2008.     

Global Market Segmentation and Patterns in Stock Market Reaction to US Earnings Announcements: Further Evidence

The purpose of this study is to investigate why the information content of US earnings announcements of non‐US firms cross‐listing in the US varies with the degree of capital market segmentation in the cross‐listing firms' countries of domicile. My evidence shows that indirect barriers to investing (i.e., accounting rules and liquidity differences) rather than direct investment barriers (i.e., investment restrictions) mainly account for this difference. After controlling for the level of accounting disclosure in a firm's country of domicile, I do not observe a systematic difference in the size of market's reaction to earnings announcements depending on the degree of market segmentation in the firm's country of domicile. This study contributes to the literature by providing evidence that accounting disclosure plays an important role in the integration of global capital markets.     

Optimizing order policy and credit term for items with inventory-level-dependent demand under trade credit limit

Under the combined effects of inventory-level-dependent demand (ILDD) and trade credit, the retailer is able to order more quantities to stimulate market demand. However, from the supplier's perspective, two important issues are lacking sufficient attention. First, during the credit period, the retailer's higher order quantities imply increases in both the retailer's account payable and the supplier's opportunity cost of capital. Second, given the supplier's fixed production rate, the increased market demand may drive the capacity utilization to be variable. Thus, by formulating a supplier-dominated system, this paper incorporates trade credit limit (TCL) to address its effects on optimal policies vis-à-vis the item with ILDD. Specifically, three indicators can be proposed to reveal which type of financing policy the retailer should choose. Moreover, based on TCL, the supplier can effectively manage the retailer's order quantity and the corresponding account payable. Additionally, the retailer's maximum allowable order quantity is developed to ensure that the supplier can supply the retailer's order quantity on time. Furthermore, when the effects of ILDD become more significant, the manufacturer will reduce the maximum allowable order quantity to control the retailer's order incentive.     

Foreign direct investment and financial markets influences: Results from the United States

This paper investigates the linkages among Foreign Direct Investment (FDI-greenfield and mergers and acquisitions (M&A)) decisions and equity market returns and volatilities. The central premise is that FDI decisions by Multinational Enterprises (MNE) are influenced, among other factors, by risk and uncertainty indicated by equity market returns and volatilities in the destination (host) countries. This is because of the events on the stock markets in general, and their volatilities, in particular, signal the vitality of the investment climate of the target country. Including capital market variables among the determinants of FDI is important for assessing the cost of capital and for evaluating direct investment and asset allocation decisions.Secondary time-series data (quarterly) were used on incoming US FDI from 1994 to 2018 along with data on independent variables such as exchange rates, inflation, market size, equity market returns, and equity market volatilities. Thus, the paper endeavors to contribute to the International Business literature by highlighting the role played of equity returns and volatilities in FDI decisions and therewith attempts to integrate finance (capital markets) with International Business/Strategic Decision making. Several different regression specifications (OLS, Fixed, and random-effects and VAR) were utilized to analyze the data, and capital market variables (stock returns and volatilities) were found to influence the location of production facilities by a multinational enterprise (MNE). In other words, the share of production capacity optimally located abroad, as well as M&A decisions, are influenced by capital market returns and volatilities.     

The Economic Consequences of Increased Disclosure: Evidence from Cross-Listings of Chinese Firms

In this paper, we investigate the impact of cross‐listings on information asymmetry risk, the cost of capital and firm value of a group of cross‐listed Chinese companies. Our paper is the first to examine the effect of cross‐listing on information asymmetry risk. Because cross‐listed firms are subject to increased disclosure requirements, increased regulatory scrutiny and increased legal liability, we propose that Chinese cross‐listed firms have lower information asymmetry risk, lower cost of capital and higher firm value than their non‐cross‐listed counterparts. We find in both univariate and multivariate tests that cross‐listed firms enjoyed lower information asymmetry risk in the domestic market compared with the non‐cross‐listed firms. We also find that cross‐listed firms have lower cost of capital in the cross‐listing market than non‐cross‐listed firms in the domestic markets. Finally, we find that cross‐listed firms are associated with higher firm value as measured by Tobin's Q. These results have implications for international investors and companies seeking cross‐listing opportunities.     

Bank valuation in new EU member countries

This paper studies the role of institutional reforms in affecting bank valuation in new European Union (EU) member countries. It takes advantage of the dynamic nature of institutional reforms in transition economies and explores the causal effects of those reforms on banks’ Tobin's Q over the period of 1997–2008. Using a difference-in-difference approach, the paper shows that Tobin's Q increases substantially after these countries reform their legal institutions and liberalize banking. However, it decreases after stock market reforms. After further examination of the interactive relationships between different reforms and bank valuation, it is observed that when the banking reform is well implemented, legal reform can have a stronger impact on banks’ Tobin's Q. On the other hand, banking reform and security market reform has a substitutive relationship. The analysis also suggests that foreign ownership, market power, and asset diversification significantly affect Tobin's Q. These results are robust even after simultaneously controlling for equity risk.     

Acquirer Characteristics and Method of Payment: Evidence from Chinese Mergers and Acquisitions

This study examines the effects of acquirer characteristics on method of payment of Chinese acquirers on the basis of a sample of 1370 mergers and acquisitions that occurred between 1998 and 2008. Using both buy and hold abnormal returns and calendar time abnormal returns approaches, we find that Chinese acquirers experience pre‐acquisition abnormal returns ranging from 14.29% to 121% over the period of 12–36 months prior to the acquisition relative to three different portfolio benchmarks. In the pre‐bid period, acquisitions financed by shares outperform acquisitions financed by cash. However, in the post‐acquisition period, we document no significant difference between cash‐financed and equity‐financed acquisitions. The study also finds that acquirer market value, Tobin's Q, state ownership and leverage have significant effects on the method of payment. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The weighted average cost of capital is not quite right

A firm's cost of capital used in discounted cash flow analysis is commonly calculated as a weighted average of the after tax costs of the firm's various sources of financing (equity, debt, preferred stock). Its use implies that for investment projects earning precisely the WACC the cash (in)flow is exactly sufficient to reward all the suppliers of finance with their respective costs of capital. However, the necessary cash flow (normal profit) implied by the WACC is inadequate to provide the cash flows to the individual sources of financing when they are considered separately. This note discusses the problem (WACC is a linear approximation of a nonlinear relationship) and presents a modification of the WACC which is conceptually superior to the WACC as commonly calculated.     

Trump versus Reagan – the global dimension

• ? Could the Trump era resemble the 1980s? ‘Reaganomics’ boosted world growth – but not necessarily in the ways people think – and not for emerging markets (EMs), a larger part of today's world economy. Growth then was also aided by factors such as declining interest rates, which are missing today, and we doubt that deregulation will lead to a productivity surge. US asset prices, meanwhile, were depressed in 1981, unlike now, so the big gains of the 1980s are unlikely to be repeated. EM assets should do better than back then, though.
• ? Optimistic observers – and to some extent, markets – have been drawing parallels between the policy mixes of the Trump and Reagan administrations, and talking up the prospects of stronger global growth. But while the US did support world growth in the 1980s, this was arguably more due to Keynesian' demand‐side policies than supply‐side ones: Reagan's record on supply‐side policies was mixed.
• ? The US is still an important driver of global activity, but markets may be too optimistic about the effect of Trump's policies on world growth. Any Trump fiscal stimulus will occur against a much less favourable background than that of the 1980s, when US growth also benefitted from a variety of factors missing now.
• ? It is also unclear whether Trump's administration will tolerate large expansions of the current account and fiscal deficits as the ‘price’ for more growth. And we are sceptical about the prospects of big gains from deregulation: US economic dynamism has waned, but the policies so far proposed in this area look potentially misdirected.
• ? Over the coming years asset market performance is unlikely to mirror that of the 1980s: valuations suggest less room for dollar appreciation and stock market gains this time around. But emerging market (EM) assets may do better – the soaring dollar and high US rates that hit EMs in the 1980s are unlikely to be repeated. And our analysis suggests even modestly better US growth will support commodity prices and EM growth.

     

CEO ownership and firm value

This paper examines the hypothesis that the amount of CEO ownership has a dominating effect on the value of the firm. Using a diverse sample of firms, firm value as measured by Tobin's q is found to be a nonmonotonic function of CEO ownership. Specifically, Tobin's q rises when the CEO owns between 0 and 15% and declines as CEO ownership increases to 50%. Beyond 50%, the value starts to rise. Firm value also is found not to be a function of management ownership when CEO ownership is separated out, indicating that CEO ownership does have a dominating effect on firm value. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.