The economic consequences of corporate tax rates reductions in the EU: Evidence using a computable general equilibrium model

In a globalised world, governments are eager to attract foreign investors by lowering corporate tax rates. Recent trends point towards a revival of a race to the bottom in corporate income tax (CIT) rates in developed economies. EU countries have been active in this respect. A generalised fall in CIT rate could prove detrimental to tax revenues and trigger increase in other taxes to meet fiscal policy objectives. However, it could also spur investment and growth and prove to be a good fiscal policy strategy if, as a result, the corporate tax base increases. The final economic and fiscal impact of a reduction in CIT rates is therefore unclear. Using a CGE model, we find that uncoordinated tax reforms significantly impact national economies and third‐country effects can be significant when large countries implement CIT rate cuts. Small countries are better off unilaterally reducing their CIT rate at the expense of other EU countries. We find that negative spillovers are mitigated when the country reducing its CIT rate restores its budget balance by cutting either public expenditures or social transfers. A larger degree of non‐EU capital mobility also tends to reduce the negative spillover effects of unilateral CIT rate reductions.     

Reforming the Governance of the International Monetary Fund

Democratising the governance of the IMF will significantly improve the institution's capacity to manage crises. The implementation of a democratic framework requires a reform of the Fund's ‘quota regime,’ which mediates the distribution of voting power. An optimal reform of the quota regime that reflects the increased weight of emerging economies requires matching the number of policy objectives with the number of policy instruments. Presently, there is a classic ‘assignment problem’ whereby one policy instrument (i.e., the quota regime) is aimed at achieving three objectives (i.e., member contribution obligations, access rights, and voting rights). Three different instruments need to be adopted. Member contributions should be based on member's capacity to pay; access to resources should be based on need; and voting rights should balance the rights of creditors with the principle of sovereign equality. These reforms will enhance the Fund's legitimacy and accountability as a forum for global economic policy‐making.     

Anti‐dumping at 100 Years and Counting: A Canadian Perspective

The world's first anti‐dumping measure was introduced by Canada as a ‘special duty’ that could be levied administratively rather than being enacted. This paper describes the features of this first measure in light of subsequent evolution of anti‐dumping practice and sets it in its historical context – an era that was a high season of globalisation but also an era marked by an awakening of economic nationalism in newly industrialising countries, and by growing angst over the power of large corporations that were emerging to exploit the economies of scale allowed by mass production, as evidenced by the concurrent evolution of anti‐combines legislation. Anti‐dumping's early integration into economic theory as an international counterpart of domestic competition policy has received some official ratification in international treaties, and governments see it as a legitimate policy, albeit one in need of international disciplines. However, analysis of the pattern of its use reveals it to be an instrument of political economy, as a convenient alternative to the WTO safeguard option. The paper explores contextual reasons why today, in another high season of globalisation, marked by concerns over corporate globalism that evoke those of the earlier era, anti‐dumping actions are proliferating where they did not then.     

Public Pension Reform in Europe: Policies,Prospects and Evaluation

This paper describes the demographic and economic factors underlying the reform of public pension programmes in Europe. It examines the policy response, both at the Europe‐wide level and within individual European countries. Several programme reform strategies that have been implemented are evaluated. These strategies are the greater pre‐funding of public pensions and expanded second‐tier private pension components, ‘parametric’ reforms to existing programmes, and the development of formula‐driven ‘actuarially fair’ public programmes. Efforts to provide greater incentives for individuals to postpone retirement are also discussed.     

The Economics of Exchange‐Rate Regimes: A Review Essay

The exchange‐rate regime issue has taken centre‐stage in discussions of international economic policy. Much of the profession appears to have been converted to ‘the hypothesis of the vanishing middle regime’; for countries well‐integrated into world capital markets, there is little, if any, middle ground between floating exchange rates and monetary unification. This paper considers the exchange‐rate‐regime issue in the context of recent books on the subject by W. Max Corden and Morris Goldstein. Both authors prescribe managed floating exchange rates, supplemented with inflation targeting, for emerging‐market economies. Under managed floating, and with a credible monetary policy, the public finances in order, and strengthened debt management and prudential regulation, the exchange rate is free to act as a market gauge for assessing policies and as a mode of conflict resolution. Both authors also argue, however, that no exchange‐rate regime is a Holy Grail. Ultimately, a credible exchange‐rate regime depends upon the trust evoked by governments. There is no exchange‐rate regime, whether of the managed‐floating or hard‐fix variety, that can eradicate a history of failed stabilisation attempts.     

Conditionality and Aid Effectiveness Re‐evaluated

This paper evaluates aid by considering how effective aid has been in exerting leverage on policy choices. It is rather easy to demonstrate that if a country is unwilling to implement policy reforms, attaching conditions to aid will not ensure sustained reform. In this sense conditionality does not work. This ignores the fact that donors, through aid and conditions, can influence recipient policies. The argument of this paper is that if the analysis focuses on channels of influence, one can better identify ways to enhance aid effectiveness. Reform is a slow and difficult process and donors would be more effective ‘development partners’ if they see their role as being to support rather than force this process. In simple terms, donors should provide the information and technical assistance to help governments to make policy choices, rather than dictating choices by imposing conditions.     

Technological acquisition and investment: lessons from recent indian experience

Most of the existing studies on investment functions ignore the role of technology acquisition in influencing investment decisions. This study argues that technology acquisition will decisively influence investment behavior, modernization, and expansion plans of firms. However, capability of the firms to acquire technology differs considerably. Following the Schumpeterian paradigm, we maintain that the entrepreneur's decision to invest and expand would depend on the technological opportunities available. The main role of the entrepreneur in the Schumpeterian framework is to exploit an invention or new technology in introducing new processes and products. The policy regime in India prior to 1985 did not permit the firms to take advantage of technological opportunities created abroad in introducing new technologies and expanding their capital base. The reforms introduced since 1985, for the first time, permitted the Indian firms to expand their product range, introduce new technologies, and increase their capacities without obtaining prior official sanction.This study, therefore, examines the role of technology acquisition in influencing investment decisions of private corporate firms in the aftermath of Indian economic reforms introduced in 1985. Using pooled cross-section data for 1987-88 to 1989-90 on a sample of 325 large corporate firms from seven industries, the present study examines the interfirm differences in investment behavior. The focus is on the impact of the first phase of economic reforms introduced in India post-1985. The model specified in the study postulates that acquisition of new technology made possible by economic reforms brings down costs and boosts demand. This increases the profit rate for firms using new technology. Technology acquisition per se takes place through technology imports via licensing or arms-length purchase of technology through the market, intrafirm transfer of technology by way of foreign direct investments, and direct import of capital goods embodying new technology. The process is facilitated by R&D expenditures.Empirical tests of the model carried out for each industry separately indicate that interfirm differences in the investment rate at the firm level are due to a number of factors. Opportunities to import machinery and license technology through arms-length purchase of technology influence the investment rate positively as these expenditures promote acquisition of technology. In other words, a government policy aimed at discouraging technology imports would also deter the growth of firms. Government policy before 1985 did hinder technology imports. This was partly to protect indigenous technology and partly to conserve foreign exchange. The results of the study further show that in-house R&D expenditures promote capacity expansion. This is despite the fact that most sample firms had small R&D budgets. Firms with R&D units are better placed to locate new technology and adapt it to suit Indian market conditions. This facilitates exploitation of technological opportunity leading to expansion of capital stock. However, the ability of a firm to exploit technological opportunities depended, to a considerable extent, on the age of its plants and machinery. This is because firms with older machinery and plants find the switch to new technology more difficult as most of their equipment and machinery are not suitable for modernization. The results of the study show that firms with machinery of recent vintage modernize and expand their capital base, using new technology, since it is easier for them to make the change.These empirical results have several policy implications for decision-makers in both the public and private sectors. The policymakers can draw inferences about the positive impact of the economic reforms on the capacity expansion and growth of firms. This, perhaps, provides a justification for taking the reform process to its logical end. Because economic reforms facilitate technology acquisition and capacity expansion, decision-makers ought to initiate the reform process in other spheres where it is yet to commence. Furthermore, modernization of plant and machinery and technology acquisition are a continuous process. The cost of modernizing a plant with dated machinery will be very high as older, outdated machinery is not compatible with the current vintage. An upgrade, therefore, is difficult if not impossible. Interruption of a technological upgrade due to changes in government policy ranging from total ban on technology imports to liberal import policy would enhance the cost of technology acquisition. The empirical results also indicate that even modest R&D activities facilitate the identification, location, and importation of relevant technology. Thus, firms with in-house R&D units grew faster. In countries like India, vigorous encouragement of R&D ought to be on the policy agenda of both corporate and government policy framers.Though our sample deals with Indian firms, it has relevance for other countries, because in most countries higher growth rates are being registered in industries that have been experiencing rapid technological development with better technological opportunities. Further, in a given country, firms that went in for acquisition of new technology invested more.     

Grappling with Globalisation: Challenges for Economic Governance

This paper examines the key domestic institutional challenges posed by globalisation in terms of the following questions: how does economic globalisation differ from other types of economic integration, what is its impact on the extant national institutions of economic governance, what institutional innovations are required to cope with the challenges, and how can institutional change be made politically feasible? It identifies three perspectives on how national governments may respond – retreat, hold fort, or rearticulate. It concludes that though governments need to devise policies to attract MNEs, indulging in races‐to the‐bottom is not the only route, perhaps not even a desirable route. Second, to attract FDI, governments must afford labor flexibility. How they actually implement it will vary within and across countries, depending on the capacities and the willingness of governments to undertake institutional reform. Labour flexibility can be made politically feasible by increasing the levels of social insurance to protect displaced labour and by instituting programmes that increase their skills and employability.     

Entrepreneurship, Economic Growth and Public Policy

This paper is an introduction to the second Global Entrepreneurship Research Conference. The conference focused on developing a better understanding of the relationships among entrepreneurship, economic growth and public policy, and variations according to the stage of economic development. The papers in this special issue conduct analysis with GEM micro-and-macro data, and offer several important policy recommendations. First, middle-income countries should focus on increasing human capital, upgrading technology availability and promoting enterprise development. It is important to start enterprise development policies early because the main drivers are perceptual variables that are difficult to change in the short run. Second, for developed economies, reducing entry regulations, in most cases, will not result in more high-potential startups. Both labor market reform and deregulation of financial markets may be needed to support growth of high-performance ventures.      

A Vicious Cycle of Manias,Crises and Asymmetric Policy Responses – An Overinvestment View

Over the past three decades, we find that asymmetric policy responses heavily contributed to manias and bursting bubbles that eventually trapped the major industrial economies into near zero short‐term interest rates with rapidly rising public indebtedness. The article uses the endogenous business cycle theories of Wicksell, Mises, Schumpeter, Hayek and Minsky to show how ostensible counter‐cyclical monetary policies are asymmetric, as central banks are less willing to raise interest rates in booms than cut them when bubbles collapse. After interest rates have fallen towards zero, fiscal policy is called on which sooner or later becomes bounded by extraordinary debt to GDP ratios. Central banks hesitate to raise interest rates even in the face of a partial economic recovery because the cost of public debt service would become prohibitive. The economies then languish at very low interest rates that encourage low productivity real investments and a continual threat of bubbles in asset and raw material markets. This makes them unable to deal with further macroeconomic shocks.     

Formulating Trade Policy in a Small Hydrocarbon‐dependent Economy: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago

We examine the status of Trinidad and Tobago's trade policy regime based mainly on the WTO's Trade Policy Review 2005 and to a lesser extent the Review of 1998. The paper highlights the areas identified by the WTO that the country needs to address to ensure compliance with the rules, disciplines and commitments made under the Multilateral Trade Agreements and the existence of a trade regime characterised by little or no distortions. It undertakes this discussion against the background of Trinidad and Tobago's role as a founding member of CARICOM and the increasing influence of this body in determining its trade policies in particular and economic policies in general. The study highlights the progress made by Trinidad and Tobago in establishing an outward‐oriented trade regime since embracing reforms in the mid‐1980s. However, the need for much deeper reforms is stressed if the country is to realise its ambitious objective of becoming the manufacturing base and the commercial, trans‐shipment and financial hub of the western hemisphere. Further, it points to the inextricable link between the country's economic fortunes and international petroleum prices, and increasing over‐reliance on the hydrocarbons sector. Consequently, it stresses the need for getting its diversification strategy ‘right’ if it is to minimise the fallout effects associated with the bust that inevitably follows a petroleum boom.     

Managing the transformation to e‐government: An Australian perspective

Australia is recognized as a leading country in the move to an information economy, and the Australian government has played a pivotal role in this transformation. This commentary outlines some of the key issues confronting Australia as it moves towards its policy goal of achieving e‐government. Although governments differ in the pace and nature of reforms required to bring about the transformation to e‐government, many of the underlying issues are the same for most governments. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

A Centennial of Anti‐dumping Legislation and Implementation: Introduction and Overview

A century has passed since the Government of Canada adopted the first recorded anti‐dumping law in 1904. The Canadian legislation was soon followed by similar legislation in most of the major trading nations in the industrialised world prior to and after World War I. Anti‐dumping provisions were later incorporated into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) following World War II. Nowadays, virtually all of the industrialised and developing countries in the world economy have adopted anti‐dumping legislation. In view of the long and increasingly widespread use of anti‐dumping measures, we marked the centennial of Canada's 1904 legislation with a symposium at the University of Michigan on 12 March, 2004. The symposium papers document the experiences with anti‐dumping and then ask whether and how anti‐dumping can be reformed. Although we all would probably agree that the best solution would be to retract all anti‐dumping legislation, this is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. Anti‐dumping laws serve a variety of purposes, and powerful political forces stand in the way of eliminating these laws. Anti‐dumping provides a stronger and more focused means of safeguards protection against surges of imports than GATT‐legal safeguards laws permit. Anti‐dumping also formalises a meaning for ‘unfair trade’ that, though essentially meaningless from an economic standpoint, strikes a chord in public perception. And finally, in spite of its appearance of being constrained by objective administrative rules, anti‐dumping in practice is a potent political tool that governments are able to manipulate in order to satisfy powerful constituents. With all this going for it, anti‐dumping is unlikely ever to be relinquished as an economic policy tool by governments.     

Schwaches Produktivitätswachstum — zyklisches oder strukturelles Phänomen?

Labour productivity growth in Germany and in the OECD countries has decelerated significantly in recent years. This observation is astonishing, given the fact that modern digital services can now be found throughout the economy. It may be a statistical artefact, but if it is a realistic observation, it should be investigated. The authors describe many reasons for this development. For example, the services sector, with its traditionally low productivity, makes up an increasingly large part of the economy. Moreover, the cost intensity of innovations is growing, and there are not enough innovative investments. What should be done? Reforms are suggested which aim at exploiting unused potential and create suitable conditions for facilitating sustainable productivity increases. Important policy areas include digitisation, energy transition and demographic change. But reforms must also be thought of as investments into the capacity of employees to work productively.     

Can Japan Make a Comeback?

Since the beginning of the 1990s Japan has experienced economic stagnation. The economy had been allowed to overheat in the 1980s and a bubble had been built up. When this burst, there was massive asset‐deflation, which led to a banking crisis. The bad debts were not faced up to effectively. Japanese banks could not achieve high enough margins to recapitalise themselves, and the government was for a long time reluctant to intervene effectively. The shock made economic agents more pessimistic, which led to an imbalance between savings and investment‐demand. Excess savings were placed abroad and used to finance a domestic fiscal deficit, but this was not enough to close the gap and sustain growth. To be able to run a large current account surplus the yen needed to depreciate, but this was not achieved due to expectations about a future appreciation. The strategy to get out of the liquidity trap would include credible inflation targeting and yen depreciation. Monetary policy should have an inflation target well above zero per cent. Such macroeconomic measures need to be complemented by structural reforms such as deregulation of financial services, competition policy and reallocation of public investments. The Japanese development model with close connections between firms and banks needs to be reformed. Japan should be able to achieve stable growth again, but since the catch‐up phase is over one would not expect growth in Japan to be higher than in other developed countries, even if Japan undertakes the needed reforms.     

Real Output Co‐movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?

The East Asian region has experienced astonishing economic growth and integration over the past few decades. It is generally believed that a high degree of integration in the region would greatly shape the economic structure of each individual economy and has direct implications for the effectiveness of domestic stabilisation policy and policy coordination. This paper empirically examines the feasibility of forming a monetary union in East Asia by assessing the real output co‐movements among these economies. As suggested by the optimum currency area (OCA) theory that losing monetary independence would be the major cost for adopting a common currency, it would be less costly for the economies to form a monetary union if the business cycles are synchronised across countries. The cointegration test and the Vahid and Engle (1993 ) test for common business cycles are conducted to examine their long‐run relationship and short‐run interactions in real outputs, respectively. Our study found that some pair countries in the region share both the long‐run and short‐run synchronous movements of the real outputs. In particular, the short‐run common business cycles are found in some pairs of ASEAN economies consisting of Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia, and in the Northeast Asian region consisting of Hong Kong, Korea and Mainland China, as well as between Japan and Taiwan. These findings have important implications for the economies in terms of adjustment costs when considering the adoption of a monetary union.     

Services policy reform and manufacturing employment: Evidence from transition economies

Policy reforms targeting the services sectors are a neglected dimension of the process of structural transformation and economic development. The effects of such reforms on employment across industries as a function of their use of services as intermediate inputs are theoretically ambiguous and remain largely understudied. This paper uses sector‐level data for 24 transition economies for the 1990–2012 period to assess the impacts of services policy reforms on downstream manufacturing employment. We find a negative effect of services reforms on manufacturing sector employment. This is mostly associated with the process of transition to a market‐based economy. Controlling for transition‐specific dynamics, the data suggest a neutral effect of progress towards adopting “best practice” policies for upstream services on employment in downstream manufacturing. Furthermore, in line with the extant literature, we confirm that services policy reforms enhance productivity of downstream manufacturing industries. Finally, we find that the negative effects on downstream employment are mitigated in countries with better economic governance and human capital.     

Trade Policy in Burundi: Reform Without Political Stability

This paper evaluates Burundi's progress with trade policy reform, by comparing earlier analyses of Burundi's trade policies undertaken in the 1980s with that of the WTO's recent Trade Policy Review. Since the mid‐1980s Burundi has been trying to reform its trade and macroeconomic policies against the background of continuous socio‐political tensions and periodic outbreaks of violent tribal conflict. A ‘then and now’ comparison allows us to assess both the extent of the trade reforms and of the economic return to those reforms. It is evident that there has been a significant rationalisation and simplification of trade policy. Burundi has eliminated most quantitative import restrictions and reduced the average level and range of its tariffs. The scope for allocative distortions, undesirable redistributive effects and for impediments to investment and growth has been substantially reduced. However, a return to reform in terms of export growth or diversification and of overall economic growth is not discernible yet. This is unsurprising, given the scale of the economic disruption. Sustained socio‐political stability, among other things, will be required to induce the investment in human and physical capital needed for a positive return to trade policy reform.     

Assessing privatization investment opportunities in Thailand

Executive Summary Multinational corporations (MNCs) can find lucrative opportunities to invest in emerging‐market countries by participating in the privatization of state‐owned enterprises. The ability of MNCs to form joint ventures or acquire state enterprises in most countries, however, depends on the characteristics of the government's privatiza‐tion policies and plans, the pace of their implementation, and the mechanisms allowed for foreign investment. In order to assess the feasibility of privatization policies in emerging‐market countries, and especially those undergoing dynamic reforms of their economies, MNCs need a framework for analyzing privatization efforts. The appli‐cation of such a framework is illustrated using the experience with privatization and economic reform in Thailand. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Strategic trade policy for Eastern Europe

The integration of the former state-trading countries into international free trade may, on the one hand, sensibly complement the reforms now under way towards their becoming market economies; on the other hand, this move harbours the risk of perpetuating and indeed aggravating the economic backwardness of those countries. The detrimental effects can be avoided if a product-cycle-oriented economic policy is pursued which makes a deliberate point of utilizing the relatively rich endowment of human capital available in these countries.