A comparison of city size distributions for China and India from 1950 to 2010

We examine the distributions of Chinese and Indian city sizes for seven decades (1950s to 2010s) using lognormal, Pareto, and general Pareto distributions. We ascertain which distribution fits the data and how the city size distributions change during these periods. The Chinese city size distribution is represented by lognormal in the early periods (1950–1990) and by Pareto in 2010, but is not characterized by Zipf, which could be attributed to Chinese government’s restrictions of migration from rural to urban areas and the one-child policy. In contrast, the Indian city size distribution transitions from lognormal in the earlier periods to Zipf in the later periods.     

How to estimate market concentration given grouped data

A novel method is proposed of estimating market concentration for the census case in which firms are grouped into size classes and all that is known about the firms in each category is their number and aggregate size. The formula arises as a way of applying an alternative expression for the concentration ratio based upon the original and first moment size distributions of firms. The semi-parametric technique, which includes a method of interval as well as point estimation, is derived, applied and validated using actual and simulated data. It is anticipated that the estimator will be of use in competition analysis as well as in academic research.     

滨州城市功能优化与提升

城市空间结构反映了城市的现实生活,也诠释着城市的演绎历史。优化城市空间结构是优化城市功能的重要手段。滨州作为黄蓝两区重要的节点城市,必须进一步放大空间位势,提升城市空间能级,进而优化城市功能。对滨州城市空间扩展进行探讨,有助于全面理解和把握滨州城市空间结构的演化规律,因地制宜地调整城市发展战略。影响空间结构的除城市发展之外,还有其他因素,如城市品牌建设和人口规模等原因。     

The effect of city size on the urban income distribution through time: 1950–70

In the literature on the urban income distribution two important questions have been ignored. First is the question of the appropriateness of hypotheses testing on samples of SMSAs with broad ranges of populations sizes. The second question is the stability of the effects of city size and other determinants on the urban income distribution through time. This stability is crucial to the propriety of drawing policy implications from previous studies which have employed data from only a single point in time. This study finds that hypotheses tests are sensitive to the size classes of cities being examined, and hence the results of hypotheses tested for SMSAs with broad ranges of population may be misleading. The present analysis also reveals that significant structural changes have taken place in the standard linear model over time, and therefore inferences regarding the future from past studies should be viewed with caution.     

浙中城市群综合集聚度及核心城市

浙中城市群作为浙江省三大主体城市群之一,在浙江中西部地区经济社会发展中起着重要作用.正在崛起中的浙中城市群,各个城市的规模和功能还相对较弱,任何一个城市都难以单独成为带动区域发展的核心城市.通过对浙中城市群城镇综合集聚指数的测算分析,结合各城市的发展态势和区位特点,将浙中城市群的核心城市确定为金华市区一义乌联合中心,并分析该联合中心的可行性及意义.     

中国城市规模体系与城市发展战略*

过去30多年中国城市发展速度较快，然而究竟应该以何种规模的城市作为城市发展战略的重点始终存在争论。本文基于城市成本收益最优规模的罗伯特研究框架，利用中国143个城市数据采取分组估计方法进行检验，发现并不存在单一的最优城市规模。在此基础上，本文进一步利用齐普夫（ZIPF）法则和城市就业提供能力指数对中国现有城市规模体系进行研究，本文发现中国城市体系总体规模偏小且缺乏足够的就业提供能力。最后，本文根据相关研究结论提出符合中国实际的城市发展战略。     

How migration restrictions limit agglomeration and productivity in China

China strongly restricts rural–urban migration, resulting in a well acknowledged surplus of labor in agriculture. But migration is also restricted within sectors. This paper argues that these intra-sector restrictions lead to insufficient agglomeration of economic activity in both the rural industrial and urban sectors, with resulting first order losses in GDP. For urban areas the paper estimates a city productivity relationship, based on city GDP numbers. The effects of access, educational attainment, FDI, and public infrastructure on productivity are estimated. Given these, worker productivity is shown to be an inverted U-shape function of city employment, with the peak point shifting out as industrial composition moves from manufacturing to services, as predicted by urban theory. As far as we know this is the first paper to actually estimate the relationship between output per worker and city scale for any country. The majority of Chinese cities are shown to be potentially undersized—below the lower bound on the 95% confidence interval about the size where their output per worker peaks. The paper calculates the large gains from increased agglomeration in both the rural industrial and urban sectors.     

新疆绿洲城市综合规模与基础设施灰色关联时空分析

通过构建新疆城市综合规模与基础设施评价指标体系,运用综合灰色关联分析方法,对新疆22个城市基础设施与综合规模进行灰色关联分析。研究发现：①1997—2007年新疆基础设施与城市综合规模平均灰色关联度大于0.59。有较强关联度城市分布在北疆和东疆,在时间分布上,灰色关联度缓慢上升,上升幅度小。②基础设施对城市综合规模灰色响应值差异较大,通讯设施和能源设施具有较强绝对灰色响应,交通设施和环境设施具有较强相对灰色响应。在空间分布上,22个城市的基础设施灰色响应最小值基本一致,稳定在0.5左右,但灰色响应最大值具有较大差异。在时间上,不同基础设施对城市综合规模灰色响应分别属于下降型、平稳型、上升型。③基础设施对综合城市规模的灰色影响明显。在绝对灰色影响中,对经济规模影响最大。在灰色影响中,对建成区规模影响最大。空间分布上,对经济规模有绝对灰色影响最大值城市占总数的45.5%,在相对灰色影响中,对第三产业影响最大的城市占总数的31.8%;基础设施对城市综合规模灰色影响以上升型为主。     

房价对城市全要素生产率的影响机制研究——基于Tobit模型实证分析

基于2008—2016年全国35个大中型城市的面板数据,利用Tobit模型和投入导向型的数据包络分析(DEA)方法探究城市房屋销售价格对城市全要素生产率的影响。研究发现：在整体维度城市房价与城市生产率呈现先增加后减少的倒U型曲线,且城市的房价水平超过了“房住不炒”的最高临界值,房价上升的抑制效应显著。房价对于不同人口规模城市的生产率影响具有异质性,在人口规模达到特大城市时,房价与城市生产率呈现倒U型特征,人口规模达到超大城市后,房价与城市生产率倒U型特征消失。不同类型城市房价与城市生产率之间的倒U型关系和城市的异质性特征表明,我国大中型城市应进行房价的“一城一策”精细化调节,“房住不炒”的政策定位具有坚实理论依据和现实必然。     

陇海—兰新—北疆铁路沿线城市紧凑度及其影响因素研究

根据紧凑城市的核心内涵,从空间紧凑、结构良好、效率较高三个维度构建了城市紧凑度测度指标体系,运用主成分分析计算了2009年陇海—兰新—北疆铁路沿线40个城市紧凑度的综合得分,并将其划分为紧凑、较紧凑、一般紧凑和不紧凑四种类型。除个别城市外,从总体上来看,沿线城市紧凑度水平按照特大城市、大城市、中等城市、小城市的顺序呈现依次降低的变化规律。通过多元线性逐步回归分析了城市紧凑度的主要影响因素,结果表明目前影响沿线城市紧凑度的主要因素首先是经济增长弹性,其次是人口密度、基础设施建设和城市形态紧凑度等;对于不同规模的城市,城市紧凑度的主要影响因素亦有差异。     

Inequality of firm sizes in different economic systems

Conclusions Our empirical results seem to indicate that the lognormal model may have a more general application than it has been possible to establish before⁶. We have indicated some reasons why the assumptions of the model are valid in socialist as well as non-socialist countries. With regard to the first assumption, the law of proportionate effect, we have argued that planning agencies in socialist countries act as a check on the size of operations, as do cost curves in nonsocialist countries. Furthermore, we have argued that the population of enterprises is more likely to remain constant in a socialist economy than in a non-socialist economy. Although the arguments for the lognormal model differ a little between the two economic systems, our results seem to be consistent with those obtained by Granick (1960). In studying Soviet management he concluded that the similarities between the two systems were astonishingly great.The findings herein discussed point to two interesting subjects for future research. First, there is a need for studies of changes in size distributions in socialist countries over a period of time. Such studies could usefully include an analysis of changes in concentration as well as of transitions between different size classes (cf. Adelman, 1958; Archer & McGuire, 1965; and Hart & Prais, 1956).Second, comparisons between socialist and non-socialist countries with respect to industrial structure would be of great interest, even if there would be some difficulties in comparing the economic units of the two systems.The two studies suggested could generate further information on the main conclusion of this paper, i. e. that size distributions of firms in socialist countries seem to be skewed in a way similar to that of size distributions in capitalistic countries.This research has been carried out at GSIA, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pa. It has been made possible by grants from among others The Swedish-American Foundation and The Research Foundation of Swedish Savings Banks. I am indebted to Professor Herbert A. Simon for valuable comments.     

City Size and Wage Disparity in Segmented Labour Market in China

The relation between city size and wage inequality is well established for Western countries. This paper finds that city size–wage premium exists across Chinese cities to a lower extent than the Western world. Further, using a simplified model on the Chinese Household Income Project survey data, we find that the city size–wage premium varies with difference in skills among urban citizens. The variation amounts to 50% more for the high‐skill workers compared with their low‐skill counterparts. Moreover, owing to the presence of segmented labour market, the patterns of city size–wage premium and city size–wage inequality premium are notably different for the migrants, who receive a much lesser wage than the citizens and do not experience wage variation owing to their skill heterogeneity.     

基于生态安全格局的公园城市建设分析

“公园城市”的提出是以生态文明为引领实现美丽中国目标的体现,也是探索城市发展规划格局的全新升华。以“公园城市”的首提地成都为例,综合使用MCR模型等构建生态阻力面并提取生态廊道,并对当前成都生态安全格局进行空间耦合匹配分析,结果表明:(1)研究区生态源地主要集中在西部和北部,多以林地为主,其余生态源地分布较为分散,以水体和湿地为主。(2)生态重心主要向西倾斜,且城市生态格局受地形等的影响呈南北走向,城市主城区尚有生态潜力较大区域。(3)生态节点之间连通性尚有待加强,需进一步开发和完善环城、环湖等城市绿化系统,加强生态景观之间的连通性。     

Construction and harmonious development of urban-rural comparing financial systems based on comparative advantages theory

There exist diferences between urban-rural financial systems,Generally,the development of unban financial industry has absolute advanages compared with rural financial industry.According to the Matthew Effect,the financial resources will flow into cities for higher benefit ,so rural areas are unable to obtain absolute advantages However,relative advantage theory of the comparative advantage theory of the comparative advantage theory provides an lmportant way to observe res[ectove advamtage of both city and country.Therefore,there are comparative advantages for the development of financial industry in both urban and rural areas.The respective comparative advantages of urban-rural financial systems will supply greater efficiency than that in current dual puttern condition.Closely connected with China＇s financial development and reform and the fact of recreation of urban-rural financial system,this paper tries to explain the comparative advantage of the urban-rural financial systems.The anaalysis of the comparative advantage between urban and rural finance is the clue for the bonndary between urban-rural financial systems.This paper analyzes the current situration of urban-rural financial system.Then it proposes some views and suggestions on how to develop and maintain these two systemw as well as how to promote their coordinative development.     

外来人口对大连城市人居环境系统可持续发展的影响

外来人口改变了一个城市的人口结构,并进一步影响到该城市的自然地理环境、社会经济发展和社会变迁。依据外来人口来大连的目的和动机将外来人口分为外来学习、外来投资、外来旅游、外来打工和投亲访友人口,并把外来人口作为城市人居环境系统的干扰因素,采用系统论的基本原理和方法研究外来人口与大连城市人居环境系统的可持续发展,探讨外来人口的人居活动对大连城市人居环境系统的物质系统和非物质系统的影响,并建立外来人口与大连人口的数学模型,结合大连人居环境系统的实际提出了大连城市人居环境系统的可持续发展的对策。     

Are Chinese Cities Too Small?

This paper models and estimates net urban agglomeration economies for cities. Economic models of cities postulate an inverted U shape of real income per worker against city employment, where the inverted U shifts with industrial composition across the urban hierarchy of cities. This relationship has never been estimated, in part because of data requirements. China has the necessary data and context. We find that urban agglomeration benefits are high—real incomes per worker rise sharply with increases in city size from a low level. They level out nearer the peak and then decline very slowly past the peak. We find that a large fraction of cities in China are undersized due to nationally imposed, strong migration restrictions, resulting in large income losses.     

城市旅游发展动力模型判别

城市旅游发展动力模型的确定对于发展及研究城市旅游具有重要的指导意义.文章提出城市旅游发展的三个主导因素以及两个辅助因素:旅游资源、城市经济、旅游需求,城市环境与基础设施,以此提出不同城市旅游发展的四种动力模型:资源驱动型、经济驱动型、需求推动型、综合都市型.依据指标体系建立的原则,构建AHP模型,建立判别不同城市旅游发展动力模型的判别指标体系,并以北京、广州、深圳、桂林为例,运用判别指标体系进行判别分析,得出北京属都市综合型驱动旅游城市,广州属于经济驱动型旅游城市,深圳市属于客源市场驱动型旅游城市,桂林属于旅游资源驱动型城市.     

重庆“一小时经济圈”城市规模分布的分形研究

以重庆市＂一小时经济圈＂的非农业人口为测度指标,运用城市规模分布的常用分析方法———城市首位度及城市位序—规模法则（分形理论）对＂一小时经济圈＂城市规模分布进行纵向和横向分析,描述＂一小时经济圈＂城市规模发展现状及发展趋势,并提出相应对策。     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF WAGES IN COPENHAGEN IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 1951*

This article presents the results of a study of distributions of wage rates in approximately 250 trades, comprising 225,000 workers, in Copenhagen in the second quarter of 1951. It examines particularly the effects of heterogeneity within trades and aggregation upon the resulting distributions, both for individual trades and for all trades combined. Separate distributions are studied for men and women, for skilled and unskilled, and for three types of institutional wage payment systems.     

我国智慧城市创新扩散演进机理及启示

基于政策创新扩散理论,从城市内外两方面构建智慧城市扩散影响模型,运用事件史分析方法对38个城市数据进行分析。研究发现：在城市内部因素中,城市规模、人口密度和人均收入未对智慧城市扩散产生显著影响,城市性质和经济实力对智慧城市扩散产生显著正向影响;在城市外部因素中,城市间政府竞争和府际学习是智慧城市扩散发生的关键因素,但上级压力假设未获得支持。