Proposal for a common currency among rich democracies

This paper proposes the creation of a common currency for the industrialized democracies, notably the United States, the European Union, and Japan. A common currency implies a common monetary policy; institutional arrangements for which are discussed. The rationale rests on the assumption that asymmetrical financial shocks will become more important than asymmetrical real shocks for these large, diversified economies, and that one of the growing sources of financial shocks will be changing expectations about exchange rate movements among national currencies. These financial shocks will in turn disturb real economies, such that flexible exchange rates among major currencies will increasingly become sources of shock more than shock absorbers. Such a common currency would also make it much easier for emerging markets to frame their monetary and exchange rate policies.     

Tests of microeconomic foundations of Asian common currency areas

The formation of the euro bloc sparked renewed interest in other potential common currency areas. Swofford [Swofford, J. L. (2000). Microeconomic foundations of an optimal currency area. Review of Financial Economics, 9, 121–128] set forth some microeconomic foundations for a common currency area. In this paper, some results from tests of these microeconomic foundations for various hypothesized Asian common currency areas are presented. These results can be viewed as broadly favorable for the formation of some Asian common currency areas.     

A common currency for Russia and Byelorussia: Meeting the criteria of the optimum currency area theory

The articles discusses the readiness of Russia and Byelorussia for the introduction of a common currency in their territories and the theoretical basis for this introduction, as presented in the theory of optimum currency areas.     

Stabilization of effective exchange rates under common currency basket systems

We investigate the extent to which a common currency basket peg would stabilize effective exchange rates of East Asian currencies. We use an AMU (Asian Monetary Unit), which is a weighted average of ASEAN10 plus 3 (Japan, China, and Korea) currencies, as a common currency basket to investigate the stabilization effects. We compare our results with another result on stabilization effects of the common G3 currency (the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and the euro) basket in the East Asian countries [Williamson, J., 2005, A currency basket for East Asia, not just China. In: Policy Briefs in International Economics, No. PB05-1. Institute for International Economics]. We obtained the following results: first, the AMU peg system would be more effective in reducing fluctuations of the effective exchange rates of East Asian currencies as a number of countries applied the AMU peg system increases in East Asia. Second, the AMU peg system would more effectively stabilize the effective exchange rates than a common G3 currency basket peg system for four (Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand) of the seven countries. The results suggest that the AMU peg system would be useful for the East Asian countries whose trade weights on Japan are relatively higher than others. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 590–611.     

揭密古玉作伪 谨防上当受骗——以“油炸鬼”手法仿制的古玉

古玉作伪一般有烟火熏色、颜料浸煮、强酸腐蚀等手段,作伪方法也在不断翻新,现举几例以提高鉴别能力。1、伪造血沁法伪造血沁的方法很多,一是将仿制之玉放在火中,烧成红色,再将活犬或刚死的犬腹部开一个深口,趁玉器正热时,赶紧放入犬腹中,然后将犬埋在地下,几年后取出,形成的红斑血沁和真的一样,此谓     

揭密古玉作伪谨防上当受骗——以"油炸鬼"手法仿制的古玉

古玉作伪一般有烟火熏色、颜料浸煮、强酸腐蚀等手段,作伪方法也在不断翻新,现举几例以提高鉴别能力. 1.伪造血沁法伪造血沁的方法很多,一是将仿制之玉放在火中,烧成红色,再将活犬或刚死的犬腹部开一个深口,趁玉器正热时,赶紧放入犬腹中,然后将犬埋在地下,几年后取出,形成的红斑血沁和真的一样,此谓"狗玉"或"狗肚玉".     

揭密古玉作伪谨防上当受骗——以“油炸鬼”手法仿制的古玉

古玉作伪一般有烟火熏色、颜料浸煮、强酸腐蚀等手段．作伪方法也在不断翻新．现举几例以提高鉴别能力。 1、伪造血沁法伪造血沁的方法很多．一是将仿制之玉放在火中．烧成红色．再将活犬或刚死的犬腹部开一个深口，趁玉器正热时．赶紧放入犬腹中．然后将犬埋在地下．几年后取出．形成的红斑血沁和真的一样．此谓”狗玉”或“狗肚玉”。也有将玉放进割开的活羊腿里．     

The behavior of foreign currency holdings during currency crises: Causes and consequences

This paper evaluates the current literature on dollarization and finds it to be disappointing in its ability to explain many of the prevailling features of the dollarizations experiences in Latin America, Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union. The paper takes a different approach to the standard empirical studies, which usually extend a demand for money function to include international variables, by analyzing foreign currency holding behaviors in response to the sustainability and credibility of the exchange rate regime. The results are very promising and explain some of the previously unexplained phenomena which arise from dollarization.     

我国内地的外汇体制改革与香港联系汇率制的前景

1983年9月，中英两国关于香港前途问题的谈判陷入僵局，外汇市场港元汇率大幅下跌，其时，香港实行浮动汇率制，一些投机家利用人心浮动的时机，进行港元投机，而香港政府则迟迟未能采取有效措施制止，汇率一度失控，形成了港元危机。联系汇率制正是在这种历史背景下于1983年10月17日推出的。其主要内容是：①发钞行在发行港元现钞前，须以1美元兑7．8港元的固定汇率向金管局（原外汇基金）提交等值美元，换取负债证明书，作为港钞法定发行准备；回笼港元现钞时可按同样比价以港元现钞向港府金管局换回美元现钞及交回负债证明书。②发钞银行以相同方式为其他银行提供或回收港元现钞。     

虚拟货币法律关系研究

虚拟货币法律关系的主体包括发行人、消费者和签约网络服务商三类,发行人发行虚拟货币,消费者和签约网络服务商使用虚拟货币系统。虚拟货币法律关系的客体是一种小额资金划拨行为。虚拟货币发行人与消费者之间主要存在有一种使用虚拟货币作为支付结算工具的合同关系。     

人民币钉住一篮子货币研究

人民币汇率制度改革使得钉住一篮子货币再次受到人们的广泛关注。关于人民币钉住一篮子货币,以往相关文章往往只停留在政策建议的层面或钉住美元与钉住一篮子货币之争上,对于具体该如何钉住一篮子货币,没有进行过全面系统的阐述。通过建立模型,就如何选择篮子货币、如何确定最优权重等问题进行全面细致地探讨,之后通过试算,观察在钉住一篮子货币的情况下人民币对主要货币汇率的走势,最后把模拟值与实际值进行比较,并对比较结果进行分析。     

关于我国货币理论的实证研究

本文通过建立向量自回归模型,采用协整研究、脉冲响应及格兰杰因果性检验等计量经济学方法,就国内生产总值、居民消费物价水平、名义利率和货币供给量之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明,在我国的经济条件下,上述因素之间并不存在长期稳定的均衡关系。通过差分变换,对M2增长率、GDP增长率、CPI及利率等变量进行实证研究,并得出它们之间的协整关系。     

A theory of home currency preference

Zusammenfassung Eine Theorie der Pr?ferenz für die heimische W?hrung. - Das Modell, das in diesem Aufsatz entwickelt wird, bezieht sich auf ein System flexibler Wechselkurse und soll erkl?ren, warum die heimische W?hrung so stark bevorzugt wird. Die Ergebnisse sind:(i) Die heimische W?hrung wirkt als eine Sicherung dagegen, da\ der Wechselkurs nicht der Kaufkraftparit?t folgt,(ii) Letzten Endes bestimmen die Pr?ferenz-kurve und die Kovarianzen die absolute H?he der Pr?ferenz für die heimische W?hrung,(iii) Die Pr?ferenz für die heimische W?hrung nimmt zu, wenn erwartet wird, da\ deren Wert real ansteigt.

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Résumé Une théorie de préférence de la monnaie nationale. - Le modèle développé dans cet article se référe è un régime des taux de change flottants et s’occupe de la question pourquoi la monnaie nationale est si préférée. Les résultats sont:(i) La monnaie nationale sert de contrepartie contre le risque que le taux de change ne conforme pas avec sa valeur PPA.(ii) Dans l’analyse finale les préférences et les covariances déterminent le niveau absolu de la préférence pour la monnaie nationale.(iii) La préférence pour la monnaie nationale augmente si l’on attend que la monnaie nationale se revalorise en terme réel.

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Resumen Una teoría de la preferencia por la moneda nacional. - El modelo que se deriva en este trabajo se refiere a un régimen de tipos de cambio flexibles y sirve para explicar la preferencia por la moneda nacional. Se concluye(i) que la moneda nacional actúa como seguro contra el riesgo de que el tipo de cambio no se adhiera a la paridad del poder adquisitivo (PPA),(ii) que las preferencias y las covarianzas determinan el nivel absoluto de la preferencia por la moneda nacional en el análisis final y(iii) que la preferencia por la moneda nacional aumenta con la expectativa de que la misma sera revaluada en términos reales.

     

Power politics and princely debts: why Germany's common currency failed, 1549–56†

Using new sources, this article examines how in the years around 1550 Charles V and the imperial estates came close to creating a common currency for the Holy Roman Empire. The article analyses whose interests prevailed in the negotiations and how, despite the resistance of some important actors, the Imperial diet of 1551 was able to unanimously agree on the currency bill. It also analyses why the common currency still failed: This was the case because of the desire of many princes to ease the repayment of their debts by establishing a bimetallic currency, and even more importantly because of Charles V's attempt to weaken the Elector of Saxony by undervaluing the taler. In this, Charles exploited the diet's implicit ex‐ante agreement with him to set the rates at which old money was allowed to continue in circulation. His manipulations provoked resistance, raised the costs of implementing the common currency, and caused its failure.     

The choice of an invoicing currency in international trade and the balance of trade impact of currency depreciation

Cross-country differences in the choice of an invoicing currency in international trade is one reason for cross-country differences in estimated exchange rate coefficients in short-run balance of trade equations. If exports are invoiced in domestic currency while imports are invoiced in a foreign currency, a depreciation will increase the domestic currency value of outstanding import contracts, and may cause the balance of trade to fall in the short run. Countries with different invoicing patterns will have different effects on the short-run trade balance following a depreciation. We explore a simple theory of invoicing currency choice, drawing inferences regarding the likely choices for 14 countries. This allows a classification of countries according to the expected short-run balance of trade effect of a currency depreciation. Empirical estimates support the hypothesized groupings based on suggested currency invoicing patterns.     

我国货币流通速度的分析

本文首先把GDP与M2的比值定义为货币流通速度,计算出1993～2005年我国货币流通速度,该数据表明我国货币流通速度有减慢的趋势,这反映了我国体制上的深层次问题。其次,用带有动量项和自适应学习率的BP神经网络预测出2006～2007年我国GDP和货币流通速度,从而推算出2006年至2007年我国广义货币供应量(M2)分别是324542.6亿元和341568.6亿元左右,这对我国数量型货币政策的制定具有一定的参考价值。     

当前货币政策有效性分析

一、当前货币政策的有效性 货币政策是否有效，关键是要看通过货币政策工具的操作和中介目标的传递，最终目标是否朝着中央银行合意的目标区间移动。如果货币政策的操作目标、中介目标及最终目标均及时达到了预计的区间，就说明货币政策效应发挥充分；反之，则说明货币政策效应没有发挥充分。     

我国货币需求决定因素的实证分析

一、理论回顾。货币需求真正作为一种专门的理论是上世纪30年代由凯恩斯建立的。凯恩斯在其《通论》中认为，货币需求数量就是指特定时期公众愿意而且能够持有的货币的数量。人们收入可以以现金的形式持有，也可以购买金融债券，现金具有流动性，金融债券可以获得利息。而人们普遍具有流动性的心理偏好，之所以有此偏好，是因为人们持币主要有3大动机：交易动机，预防动机和投机动机。     

On the identification of de facto currency pegs

We describe an exchange rate peg on a dollar/euro/yen basket as an orthogonality condition for bilateral exchange rates vis-à-vis these currencies. This approach avoids the choice of a numeraire and allows simple testing on the composition of the peg. GMM estimation is performed before and after the 1997–1998 crises for up to 139 currencies. We find that the number of pegs has not diminished after the crises. Intermediate regimes, defined as de facto pegs which are not reported as hard pegs to the IMF, have been replaced by hard pegs (primarily as a consequence of the launch of the euro) while the proportion of free floats has not increased. The dollar remains the main anchor currency. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (1) (2006) 112–127.