Indonesian politics in 2012: coalitions,accountability and the future of democracy

Indonesia is a successful but flawed democracy: while the electoral process has worked well, the quality of democratic governance is less encouraging. Missing from the equation between elections and democracy is political accountability. Parties’ obsession with coalition building as a route to political power has made it difficult for voters to attribute success or failure to elected officials. Coalition government allows politicians to send contradictory messages, and in 2012 religious minorities – which are neither banned nor protected – have paid a heavy price for the lack of accountability and leadership. In Jakarta an outsider, Joko Widodo, won the gubernatorial election despite facing an incumbent backed by a broad coalition. His victory illustrates that coalition building does not guarantee success, and that the electorate is mature enough not to be swayed by appeals to religious and ethnic sentiment. This gives heart to those hoping to strengthen democracy and democratic values in Indonesia.     

Indonesian politics in 2011: democratic regression and Yudhoyono's regal incumbency

In 2011, a number of trends in Indonesian politics became clearer. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) has not become a more reformist and risk-taking president in his second term, contrary to the hopes of many, but has rather become more cautious, aloof and regal in style. He is irked by criticism and dislikes any disturbance to the authority of his rule. The political elite, often in concert with the SBY government, pushed through a range of democratically regressive measures, including allowing politicians to be appointed to the Elections Commission. The malaise within the party system deepened, with less than a quarter of the electorate professing any party affiliation. Most Islamic parties slid closer to the political periphery, and the largest one, PKS, was beset by controversy. Government and community responses to a brutal attack on the Ahmadiyah sect in early 2011 showed the limits of Indonesia's much lauded religious tolerance.     

District Assemblies in a fix: the perils of the politics of capacity in the political and administrative reforms in Malawi

This article appraises the prospects of District Assemblies institutionalising local governance structures and processes that are responsive, democratic and capable of improving the livelihoods of the poor. District Assemblies have been established against the backdrop of a radically reconstituted policy, governance and administrative framework following the transition from one-party rule to multiparty democracy in Malawi in May 1994. The underlying argument of this paper is that the potential success of the District Assemblies is effectively hampered by widespread self-seeking tendencies and orientations among various stakeholders in grassroots development, strategically veiled as lack of capacity on the part of the decentralised planning framework. Unless these seemingly idiosyncratic tendencies are subordinated to the underlying noble cause of the decentralisation policy and institutional reforms, the trinity of good governance, development and poverty reduction in the evolving structures and processes of local government will remain a virtually unattainable ideal.     

Estimates of Indonesian population numbers: first impressions from the 2010 census

This note provides a critical perspective on the preliminary results of the 2010 population census, which were announced by President Yudhoyono on 16 August 2010. It explores the concepts of population used and the adjustments made to increase the accuracy of census estimates. The assumptions underlying various official population projections in the last decade produced estimates for mid-2010 that were substantially below the figure of over 237 million persons counted in May. The note argues that, far from reflecting a ‘population explosion’, this is due to the achievement in the 2010 census of greatly increased coverage of people residing in Indonesia on the census date.     

Japanese labour in the 1990s: stability and stagnation

We review the state of the labour market and employment practicesin Japan over the past 15 years and try to evaluate the natureof the changes that have been occurring. We also look at howgovernment policy has reacted to the conditions in the labourmarket and what implications this has for the future. Althoughthere has been a continual shift of resources away from manufacturingand agriculture into services, employment practices have notbeen changing so rapidly, and job protection is actually stronger.This, along with wage restraint, accounts for why unemploymenthas only increased by some 2.5 percentage points during almosta decade of stagnation. We also note that much government policyhas acted to maintain existing employment practices and thatlabour economists are divided as to whether or not this is agood thing.     

Managing the Indonesian economy: Some lessons from the past

This paper draws some tentative lessons for the management of Indonesia's economy from recent political–economic history. After a brief review of the economy under the present government, the paper then puts the picture in the longer term perspective of post-independence Indonesia. Some lessons are then drawn. They include the need to maintain awareness of the close connection between economics and politics, constant vigilance about economic stability and the budget, a solid economic team, a coherent overall strategy and a focus on institutions and governance.     

Sources of stagnation in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper investigates the sources of economic stagnation in sub-Saharan Africa during the 1970s. Several policy variables are considered, as well as a set of ‘environmental’ variables which include climate, violence, export prices and other exogenous factors. The paper uses statistical analysis in an attempt to identify the relative importance of the policy variables and the ‘environmental’ variables, taken as groups. It also seeks to identify particular policy variables which seem to have been most significant in determining growth outcomes.The technique employed for investigation is reduced-form econometric estimation. In a preliminary analysis, the impact of the international trade environment on average economic performance in Africa during the period since independence is investigated. The results suggest an extremely close relationship between movements in export prices and average performance throughout the 20-year period.A second econometric exercise investigates the joint impacts of environmental and policy variables on growth in a cross-section of African states since 1970. The spirit of the approach is exploratory, and a relatively large number of variables are constructed and tested through multivariate analysis. A primary finding is that the environmental variables seem to have had more impact on growth as a group than the policy variables. This finding must be qualified, however, by the continuing lack of some important policy variables. Agricultural price data have not yet become available in sufficient quantity for cross-section analysis, nor have several important human resource variables and indices of the use of resources in the public domain.Among the policy variables which have been used for the analysis, those identified with retrenchment during periods of declining commodity prices seem most significant. Primary among these are the real effective exchange rate and some measures of effectiveness in foreign exchange reallocation during periods when imports must contract severely.In the final section of the paper, the cross-section results are used for a counterfactual analysis of the growth experiences of individual African states. Measures of growth opportunity cost are constructed which suggest the degree to which errors in management and uncontrollable circumstances have held states below their potential growth paths. The results suggest that some ‘success stories’ may owe much to good luck, while some ‘failures’ may well be due less to bad management than to adverse circumstances.     

Transboundary Pollution in Southeast Asia: The Indonesian Fires

Uncontrollable forest fires in Indonesia have caused much environmental damage in Southeast Asia with immediate countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, and even Southern Thailand bearing most of it. The intentional burning of forests has engendered a transboundary haze pollution problem with severe economic ramifications in both victim and perpetrator countries. This paper reviews the related issues and suggested policy responses from the different interdisciplinary perspectives. Identification and analysis by way of a “stakeholders approach” to the possible sharing of costs in certain programs to combat the fires and haze is suggested. The paper also discusses the role of economic incentives in managing forest fires.     

Indonesian migrants in Johor: an itinerant labour force

"The links between Indonesia and Johor, Malaysia, across the narrow straits have been strong for centuries. Many Johoreans trace their origins to various islands in the Indonesian archipelago. In recent years the presence of large numbers of Indonesian migrant workers in Malaysia has become the focus of media and political debate; it is seen not only as undermining working conditions but as aggravating fragile ethnic relations within Malaysia. The aim of this article is to examine the presence and employment of Indonesians in the southern area of Johor, and the responses of government and the public to this phenomenon."     

Deployment of Indonesian migrants in the Middle East: present situation and prospects

"This paper examines the Indonesian overseas employment program. It is limited to overseas deployment through the official channels, i.e. organised by licensed labour suppliers and approved by government authorities. The main destination of this official labour migration is the Middle East. Indonesian officials have indicated that the government aims to increase overseas employment and to shift deployment from houseworkers to better skilled workers. It is argued in the paper that, in view of a shrinking labour market for migrants, even limited realisation of these hopes would depend upon some distinct changes in the overseas employment program."     

The road to pro-poor growth: the Indonesian experience in regional perspective

Indonesia's long-run ‘pro-poor growth’ record is among the best in Asia. It shows that appropriate policies can free societies from poverty's worst manifestations in a generation, a crucial message as democracy begins to influence the policy process. This paper places Indonesia's record in regional perspective, analysing determinants of income distribution in Asia and connecting this analysis to Indonesia's pro-poor growth process and the policy mechanisms that encourage pro-poor growth. Using a data set for eight Asian countries, it examines patterns of change in incomes and distribution across countries and over time. Building on Indonesian experience, the paper presents a pro-poor growth model encompassing three levels: improving the ‘capabilities’ of the poor, lowering transactions costs in the economy, especially between rural and urban areas, and increasing demand for goods and services produced by the poor. It finds that rapid pro-poor growth requires simultaneous and balanced interaction between growth and distribution processes.     

企业政治:管理学遗忘的学科

在企业变革中,传统的方法很少考虑企业政治积极的、肯定的角色。本文通过对企业高层管理人员的政治维度的调查发现:企业政治是企业变革中的最主要特色,管理政治是管理变革的中心任务。因此,我们设想在管理教育中把企业政治学作为管理学科的一门主要课程。