THE EFFECT OF CASINO PROXIMITY ON LOTTERY SALES: EVIDENCE FROM MARYLAND

The continued expansion of the casino industry has caused increasing concern regarding the cannibalization of other industries, and in particular, state lotteries. For example, Maryland Lottery sales flattened shortly after casinos began opening in the state. Although previous papers have found that casinos and lotteries have a negative relationship with each other, no previous research has analyzed the impact of casino proximity on lottery sales or has examined the relationship between casinos and different types of lottery games. In this paper, we examine ZIP code‐level monthly lottery sales data from Maryland between July 2009 and February 2014, in order to test the impact of casino proximity on lottery sales, by type of game. Our findings indicate that aggregate lottery sales decline more in closer proximity to casinos, but that casinos affect different lottery products differently. We discuss the consumer behavior and public finance implications of the findings. (JEL H27, H4, L83)     

THE EFFECTS OF LOTTO GAME CHANGES AND LARGE JACKPOTS ON INCOME ELASTICITIES AND SALES

Using daily lottery data from Washington State by zip code from January 2011 through mid‐March 2016, we estimate that Powerball income elasticities range from ?0.16 to 0.16 as the Powerball jackpot increases from its minimum to $1.5 billion, while Mega Millions income elasticities range from ?0.08 to 0.03 as the Mega Millions jackpot increases from its minimum to $640 million. Controlling for jackpot size, each of three major game changes during this time period has a significant effect on own‐game and cross‐game sales. Despite these significant game changes, however, these lotto games are a highly regressive source of revenue for Washington State. (JEL H22, H71, L83)     

THE RISK OF FIRE SALES IN THE TRI‐PARTY REPO MARKET

This paper studies the risk of “fire sales” in the tri‐party repo market, a large and important market where securities dealers find short‐term funding for a substantial portion of their own and their clients' assets. We distinguish between fire sales of assets by a dealer who, facing a run that could lead to default, sells securities to generate liquidity, and fire sales of assets by repo investors after a dealer's default has occurred. While fire sales do cause damage no matter how they arise, the tools available to lessen the harm from the two types of fire sales are different. We find that limited tools are available to mitigate the risk of predefault fire sales and that no established tools currently exist to mitigate the risk of postdefault sales. (JEL G01, G18)     

THE IMPACT OF SODA SALES TAXES ON CONSUMPTION: EVIDENCE FROM SCANNER DATA

Scientific evidence on the effect of sugar consumption on obesity has propelled policy makers in several states across the United States to propose the imposition of a tax on soft drinks sales. In this article, we look at the effect of two tax events: a 5.5% sales tax on soft drinks imposed by the state of Maine in 1991 and a 5% sales tax on soft drinks levied in Ohio in 2003. We investigate this question by using sales data collected by scanner devices in the two states, where soda taxes where enacted as well as on neighboring states. We employ a difference‐in‐difference matching estimator (DIDM) that, in our setting, permits the comparison among treatment and control groups based on brand identity. Results suggest that neither sales tax had a statistically significant impact on the consumption of soft drinks. This finding is robust to several alternative specifications. (JEL D12, H22, C90, L66)     

从爱国消费到习惯形成:平台经济背景下电商中介效应对国货销售的影响研究

随着华为Mate60 Pro的回归,国内消费者对国货的热情再度被激发。与此同时,近年来各大电商平台上的国货销售量快速增长。国潮活动、网店预售和直播销售成为消费者购买国货的重要方式。然而,如何利用平台经济和电商的力量将消费热情转化为消费习惯,并促使消费者形成常态化的购买意愿,是亟需深入研究和探讨的课题。本研究采用扎根理论和偏最小二乘定量分析方法,验证了电商平台在促进国货消费习惯形成中的中介作用。研究认为,电商平台在开展国货销售活动时应更加注重以中国文化为基础,重点满足消费者对精神追求的需求。这一研究为未来的实践奠定了理论基础,同时也填补了相关研究的不足和空白。     

EFFECTS OF THE SUNDAY SHOPPING RESTRICTION IN KOREA

We examine the effectiveness of Korea's Sunday superstore shopping regulation, whose purpose is to protect small‐ and medium‐sized retailers as well as traditional markets. Applying a two‐way random‐effects regression model to the daily sales data of four megastores and four super supermarkets, we find the net sales decrease of superstores is on average 5.61% of daily sales after taking into account sales increases due to consumers' switching to weekdays. Only about 17%–19% of the reduced superstore sales are transferred to traditional markets. Based on these estimates, the compensating variation per year is predicted to be 2.4–2.5 trillion Korean won (around US $2.1–2.2 billion). (JEL L51, L88)     

Substitution between games in the UK national lottery

Virtually all lottery agencies offer a variety of games to suit the tastes of players in an attempt to maximize revenue to the government. Using the UK National Lottery, which offers a variety of on-line and scratchcard games, the extent to which there is substitution or complementarity between games is evaluated Employing weekly data from the three UKNL lottery games offered over the sample period, it is found that own-game characteristics have, by far, the largest influence on sales. Some evidence is found suggesting that the lotto and scratchcard games are partial substitutes for one another. Thunderball sales appear independent of the other two games. Some evidence is also found that the Wednesday and Saturday drawings of the lotto game are substitutes. The overall conclusion is that Camelot has successfully designed and marketed three games that each appeal to bettors in different ways. Thus, sales from one game do not seem to seriously cannibalize the sales of the other games, with the exceptions noted above. Further, the introduction of another, temporary game (Big Draw 2000) contributed to net sales. These results also suggest that the games do not appear to be complements to each other, indicating that the various arguments as to why the games may be so (transactions costs, brand awareness, and the portfolio effect) do not appear to be very strong.     

REEXAMINING THE BORDER TAX EFFECT: A CASE STUDY OF WASHINGTON STATE

Without an income tax, Washington State relies heavily upon its sales tax revenue to fund public goods and services. Bordering Idaho and especially Oregon, where the sales tax is substantially lower, the juxtaposition of the different tax structures generates the border tax effect in Washington's border counties. Controlling for unobservable county‐specific characteristics and spatial autocorrelation, we find that the price elasticity generated by the sales tax discrepancy over the years 1992–2006 is ?3.11. We estimate that elimination of the sales tax differential between Washington and its neighboring states would generate tax revenue in excess of $145 million at the state level and over $21 million at the county level in border counties. (JEL C23, D12, E62, H71)     

OWN‐ AND CROSS‐PRICE ELASTICITIES FOR GAMES WITHIN A STATE LOTTERY PORTFOLIO

Lotto demand modeling typically focuses on a single game and evaluates whether estimated “effective price” (expected loss from buying one ticket) elasticity is consistent with net revenue maximization. However, a portfolio of several different lottery games is now usually offered to players and judging the effectiveness of agencies in generating revenue requires estimation of both cross‐price and own‐price elasticities. Here we employ data from Spain to derive elasticities. Results imply that games are under‐priced if net revenue maximization is the goal. But the cross‐price estimates suggest that the operator is successful in limiting the extent to which a large jackpot on one game cannibalizes same‐week sales of other games. The paper also analyzes the impacts from two increases in the level of entry fees introduced during the data period. These appear to have affected net revenue favorably. (JEL D12, G11, H27, H30, L83)     

THE ECONOMICS OF INTRODUCING WINE INTO GROCERY STORES

The repeal of the Prohibition Act in 1933 introduced many state‐specific regulations in wine markets. For example, 15 states currently have laws that restrict wine sales in grocery stores. Several of these states have proposed changes that would expand the distribution of wine; however, the proposals have met significant resistance from key stakeholders and none have resulted in legislation. It is widely expected that additional proposals will be initiated, but with more attention given to mechanisms that would address some of the transitional issues. A simulation model is developed here to assess the likely economic effects of introducing wine into grocery stores in New York State. Results indicate that tax revenue would increase by $22 million annually, revenue for in‐state wineries would increase by approximately 13%, and revenue for liquor store owners is calculated to fall by 28%. Simulation results are subsequently used to develop a framework for evaluating the transitional costs of policy reform in this highly regulated industry. (JEL K23, Q18)     

THE IMPACT OF TRADE AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT POLICIES ON TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION AND SOURCING OF CHINESE FIRMS

How do trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) policies impact the decisions of firms in technology adoption (process vs. product innovations) and sourcing (internal vs. external and foreign vs. domestic)? We use a sample of Chinese firms to address this question. China's trade and FDI policies lead to different forms of internationalization: ordinary exports, processing exports, majority FDI, and minority FDI. We find that both exporting and FDI stimulate process innovation; ordinary exports, processing exports, and FDI have strong, weak, and no effects on stimulating product innovation, respectively. Exporting firms source technologies both internally through R&D and externally from foreign and domestic sources. FDI firms have a lower tendency of internal technology development and domestic technology sourcing, but a much higher tendency of foreign technology sourcing than exporting firms. (JEL F13, F23, O32)     

Technical change,technical efficiency,and input usage in Taiwanese agricultural growth

We analyse the increase in sales of Pick 3 and Pick 4 daily numbers lottery games and other Ohio Lottery games after Ohio introduced midday drawings for the Pick 3 and Pick 4 games in August 1999. The midday drawings increased Pick 3 sales by 5%, Pick 4 sales by 12%, and total lottery sales by 2% based on our analysis of a 36-month panel dataset of Ohio lottery sales by zip code. Midday drawings raise more revenue from the strongly regressive daily numbers games. However, the introduction of midday drawings does not change the negative income elasticities of demand for numbers games in an economically meaningful manner.     

WHEN AND HOW THE PUNISHMENT MUST FIT THE CRIME

In repeated normal‐form (simultaneous‐move) games, simple penal codes (Abreu, Journal of Economic Theory 39(1) (1986), 191–225; and Econometrica 56(2) (1988), 383–96) permit an elegant characterization of the set of subgame‐perfect outcomes. We show that in repeated extensive‐form games such a characterization no longer obtains. By means of examples, we identify two types of settings in which a subgame‐perfect outcome may be supported only by a profile with the property that the continuation play after a deviation is tailored not only to the identity of the deviator but also to the nature of the deviation.     

北京市商品交易市场的分布特征与发展趋势

本文对改革开放后北京市商品交易市场的分布和发展进行了实证研究。从市场个数,规模,投资成本,成交额等方面总体分析了市场布局,并对分类市场的分布特点进行了较为全面的剖析。在此基础上对市场成交额总量,不同地区成交额和典型市场的成交额进行了分析预测,并对市场选址提出相关建议。最后,结合国外商品交易市场的发展变化,对北京市商品交易市场未来发展提出了自己的看法。     

THE SIZE OF FISCAL MULTIPLIERS AND THE STANCE OF MONETARY POLICY IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

Implementing fiscal programs during monetary policy expansions seems to improve significantly their economic stimulus. We find this result by estimating the effect of government consumption shocks on gross domestic product (GDP) using a panel of 23 developing economies. Our goal is to better understand the reasons for the low fiscal multipliers found in the literature by performing estimations for alternative exchange rate regimes, business‐cycle phases, and monetary policy stances. In addition, we perform counterfactual simulations to analyze the possible gains from fiscal‐monetary policy coordination. Our results also show lower multipliers in developing economies with flexible regimes, especially during economic slowdowns. (JEL E62, E63, F32)     

Interrelationship among foreign presence,domestic sales and export intensity in Chinese manufacturing industries

Using panel data on six Chinese manufacturing industries over the period 2005–2007, this article explores the interrelationship among foreign presence, domestic sales and export intensity of local firms. We find that the domestic sales and exports are complementary for local firms in China’s pharmaceutical industry, whereas in the case of the textile, transportation equipment, beverage, communication equipment and general equipment manufacturing industries, domestic sales and exports are substitutes. An increase in the average domestic sales increases foreign presence in all industries. The same applies to an increase in the average export intensity. An increase in the level of competition in China’s textile industry increases the export intensity as well as domestic sales of local textile firms. However, an increase in the level of competition in the pharmaceutical industry leads to a very large decrease in export intensity of local pharmaceutical firms. In the case of China’s transportation equipment manufacturing industry, an increase in the level of competition decreases domestic sales of local firms. Furthermore, an increase in the firm size increases domestic sales of Chinese firms in all six manufacturing industries.     

Nash equilibrium in games with incomplete preferences

Summary. This paper investigates Nash equilibrium under the possibility that preferences may be incomplete. I characterize the Nash-equilibrium-set of such a game as the union of the Nash-equilibrium-sets of certain derived games with complete preferences. These games with complete preferences can be derived from the original game by a simple linear procedure, provided that preferences admit a concave vector-representation. These theorems extend some results on finite games by Shapley and Aumann. The applicability of the theoretical results is illustrated with examples from oligopolistic theory, where firms are modelled to aim at maximizing both profits and sales (and thus have multiple objectives). Mixed strategy and trembling hand perfect equilibria are also discussed.Received: 22 September 2003, Revised: 24 June 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D11, C72, D43.I would like to thank Jean-Pierre Benôit, Juan Dubra, Alejandrio Jofre, Debraj Ray, Kim-Sau Chung and the seminar participants at NYU and at the Universidad de Chile for their comments. I am most grateful to Efe Ok, for his comments, criticism, suggestions and questions.     

我国医药类上市公司库存管理的实证研究

如何在保证正常运作的情况下降低库存成本历来是企业库存管理的焦点。本文以在我国上海证券交易所上市的医药类公司为样本,对其2004—2008年库存水平的变动趋势和影响因素进行实证研究,以期为国内医药企业进行库存管理提供数据支持。研究结果表明:我国医药企业库存占用大量流动资金;库存周转率与销售变动率、固定资产比重显著正相关,与毛利率显著负相关。     

National Border Effects: Location, Not Nationality, Matters

A recent literature documents the downward impact of national borders on trade. This paper probes the relative importance of two potential sources of border effects: (1) pure locational factors, such as transport costs and tariffs; and (2) an inherent disadvantage for a firm selling in a foreign market. I am able to make this decomposition by using data on the local sales of foreign affiliates of US multinational enterprises, on US bilateral exports, and on domestic sales by host‐country firms. The “border effect” arises almost entirely from locational factors. If a firm establishes and sells from a subsidiary located in the foreign country, its local sales are about on a par with those of domestic firms in that market.     

THE BURDEN OF DEBT: AN EXPLORATION OF INTEREST RATE BEHAVIOR IN LATIN AMERICA

What determines the behavior of interest rates in Latin America? Is the recent sharp reduction in rates in the region just a transitory deviation from much higher long‐term rates? To answer these questions, this study raises two main hypotheses. First, external debt plays a central role in the sustainable behavior of domestic interest rates because it explains country risk. Second, country risk provides valuable information for predicting the behavior of exchange rate risk and not the other way around. Econometric tests confirm these hypotheses and lead to an important conclusion: unless important reforms (leading, for example, to improved tax‐collecting capacity or deeper local financial markets) are undertaken, highly indebted/high country‐risk economies will tend to be associated with high domestic interest rates. (JEL E43, G15, 016, 054, C22)