Structural Breaks and Convergence in the Regions of Peru: 1970–2010

The aim of this paper is the analysis of stochastic and β‐convergence in the relative regional per capita outputs using different unit root tests both with and without structural breaks and using a further test that is robust to the presence of I(0) or I(1) errors. It allows robust inference on the estimates of the initial per capita output (intercepts) and the respective growth rates (slopes). The results of the application of unit root tests without structural breaks show the absence of stochastic convergence. However, by incorporating the presence of endogenous breaks, the results are reversed for all regions. In the case of β‐convergence, the results of the robust test W_RQF show that all regions have a structural break at some point during the period 1970–2010. We find different behavior for different regions. There is a catching‐up process and a lagging‐behind process for different groups of regions towards more negative or more positive paths.     

Long‐Term Contracts,Irreversibility, and Uncertainty

Long‐term contracting implies contracting based on expected future demand. In this paper, I develop a multiperiod procurement model where, once the actual level of demand is realized, the irreversible initial provision level may be supplemented by additional provisions. This paper shows that, with the possibility of additional upward adjustments, the first‐period provision level will be lower than when no additional adjustments are possible. This reduction in first‐period provision level is higher under complete contracting than under incomplete contracting, and because of the reduction in information rents it yields a higher expected utility to the principal but lower total welfare.     

FACTORS AFFECTING FEMALE EMPLOYMENT IN MALE‐DOMINATED OCCUPATIONS: EVIDENCE FROM THE 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS DATA

This article investigates the effects of age, marital status, number of children, and education on the probability of female presence in traditionally male‐dominated occupations using the PUMS 1990 and PUMS 2000 data. The results indicate that being married with husband present decreases the probability of female presence in traditionally male‐dominated occupations, whereas college education has changed from having a positive effect in the 1990 data to a negative effect in the 2000 data. The analysis also finds that there are significant regional variations with regard to the effects of these factors. (JEL J71, J31)     

Mega‐Regional Agreements and Their Impact on Australia

This paper estimates the effects of emerging mega‐regional agreements on the economy of Australia using a Computable General Equilibrium model. Scenarios considered include the 11‐member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans‐Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) agreement, its possible enlargement to include five additional members (‘TPP16’) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) currently under negotiation. The study finds that Australia stands to enjoy real income and trade gains along both the CPTPP and RCEP paths. However, since Australia is already benefiting from its own liberal trade policies and many prior trade agreements, benefits are relatively modest, typically below one per cent of real income.     

Profiteering from the Dot‐Com Bubble,Subprime Crisis and Asian Financial Crisis

The paper explores the characteristics associated with the formation of bubbles that occurred in the Hong Kong stock market in 1997 and 2007, as well as the 2000 dot‐com bubble of Nasdaq. It examines the profitability of technical analysis (TA) strategies generating buy and sell signals, with and without our proposed trading rules. The empirical results show that, by applying long and short strategies during the bubble formation and a short strategy after the bubble burst, it not only produces returns that are significantly greater than buy‐and‐hold strategies, but also produces greater wealth compared with TA strategies without trading rules. We conclude that these bubble detection signals help investors generate greater wealth from applying appropriate long and short moving average (MA) strategies.     

Institutions and Cultural Heterogeneity as Determinants of National Income: A Random‐coefficients Stochastic Frontier Model

Previous research on total factor productivity (TFP) shows that cross‐country differences in income cannot be fully explained by stocks of capital (K), labor (L) and human capital (E). In addition, the omission of major production inputs or the use of proxies to estimate unobservable inputs leads to biased estimation results. This study addresses the above issues by employing a novel econometric approach and provides empirical evidence that a fixed production input, and therefore a country's income, is positively correlated with the existence of British‐style institutions and negatively correlated with cultural heterogeneity and Spanish‐style institutions. Our methodology is twofold. First, using data for 62 countries from 1980 to 2004, we regressed a random‐coefficients stochastic production frontier that allows estimating a fixed unobservable production input without using proxies. Second, the estimated fixed production input is shown to be related to colonial institutions and cultural heterogeneity by means of ordinary least squares and feasible generalized least squares regressions.     

TURNPIKE PROPERTIES OF A MONEY‐IN‐THE‐UTILITY‐FUNCTION MODEL*

This study establishes the global stability of a long‐run stationary state in a money‐in‐the‐utility‐function model. The major finding is that the constant money supply rule results in a stable allocation and price system if consumers discount their future utilities sufficiently weakly. Nominal and real interest rates will be in the neighbourhood of the inverse of the consumers’ discount factor β^‐1.     

MODELING THE INCIDENCE OF SELF‐EMPLOYMENT: INDIVIDUAL AND EMPLOYMENT TYPE HETEROGENEITY

Modeling the incidence of self‐employment has traditionally proved problematic. Although the supply‐side characteristics of the self‐employed are well documented, we argue that the literature has neglected demand‐side aspects. We explore the determinants of self‐employment using the U.S. Survey of Consumer Finances. We present results from an econometric framework that allows us to model, separately and simultaneously, the influences of individual heterogeneity (i.e., supply‐side factors) and employment type heterogeneity (i.e., demand‐side factors) on the probability of self‐employment. Our findings suggest that while individual characteristics are important determinants of self‐employment, there are factors specific to the type of employment that influence self‐employment. (JEL J23, J33, C25, C10)     

MINIMUM WAGE IMPACTS IN CHINA: ESTIMATES FROM A PRESPECIFIED RESEARCH DESIGN, 2000–2007

We use a prespecified research design to estimate the employment effect of minimum wages in China over the period 2000 to 2007. Our results are consistent with theoretical expectations and institutional realities of Chinese labor markets. These include: negative employment effects in slower growing regions; larger negative effects in non‐state‐owned organizations that tend to be more responsive to market pressures; much larger lagged effects reflecting the time needed for adjustments to occur; no adverse employment effects in the prosperous and growing Eastern region; and a positive employment effect in state‐owned enterprises in the East—consistent with monopsonistic behavior. (JEL J38)     

MEASURING QUANTITY‐QUALITY TRADE‐OFFS IN REGULATION: THE BRAZILIAN FREIGHT RAILWAYS CASE*

ABSTRACT ** ** Résumé en fin d'article; Zusammenfassung am Ende des Artikels; resumen al fin del artículo.
: The quantity vs. quality trade‐offs in network industries are well known from the theoretical literature and have been the subject of many empirical assessments, although mostly for the telecoms and energy sectors. The purpose of this paper is to expand the evidence for the railway sector by documenting the importance of this trade‐off in the context of the Brazilian freight railway industry reform, the first example of a railway sector in which tariff revisions are subject to joint output and quality performance indicators. The analysis is based on the calculation of the Malmquist productivity index proposed by Färe et al. (1995) . The decomposable nature of this total factor productivity (TFP) index reveals the prevalence of quantity‐quality trade‐offs up to the end of the reform period, but a positive correlation between them during the period just afterwards. This type of information would certainly be useful for regulation purposes, particularly as an alternative way of taking into account quality without introducing complex, and very often ineffective, penalty schemes.     

THE BROTHER‐IN‐LAW EFFECT*

When a firm is forced to pay abnormally high wages, hiring transfers rents. This effectively endows the employer with the ability to grant favors, and he may wish to do so even at some cost to efficient production. We refer to this as the brother‐in‐law effect. This article analyzes its consequences. When the brother‐in‐law effect is due to unionization, decisions regarding both the number and type of workers employed could be inefficient; overemployment could obtain even relative to the workforce that would be employed without unionization. We also identify cases in which nepotism improves efficiency.     

TAXES,HEALTH INSURANCE,AND WOMEN'S SELF‐EMPLOYMENT

I examine whether the availability of health coverage through the spouse's health plan influences a married woman's decision to become self‐employed. The Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA86) introduced a tax subsidy for the self‐employed to purchase their own health insurance. I test whether this “natural” experiment induced more women without spousal health insurance coverage to select into self‐employment. The most conservative difference‐in‐difference estimates based on an analysis of employed women indicate that the incidence of self‐employment among single women rose by 10% in the post‐TRA86 period, while a multinomial specification based on a sample of both employed and nonemployed women suggests that the increase was about 13%. (JEL J0, J3, I1)     

THE WAGE IMPACT OF TEACHERS UNIONS: A META‐ANALYSIS

The literature examining the impact of teachers unions on education is very large and diverse. We meta‐analyze the literature on the wage impacts of teachers unions to try to draw out general findings, the importance of empirical model specification, and samples. A key finding of this study is that the average wage impact estimated by the included papers is modest, around 2%–4.5%. Our findings also suggest that the quality of an empirical strategy significantly affects the size of the estimated impact. We find that teachers union wage impacts have varied over time. The largest impacts appear to be following the rapid expansion of teacher unionism in the 1970s. Finally, we gain new insight into the goals of teachers unions by using the increased statistical power of meta‐analytic techniques to show that unions increase the wages of new teachers and not just senior teachers. (JEL J51, I21, I30)     

SHORT‐RUN AND LONG‐RUN IMPLICATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

Opposing theoretical arguments exist regarding the effect of environmental regulation on financial performance. Some studies argue that environmental regulation constrains firms' abilities to exploit revenue‐enhancing or cost‐reducing opportunities. Other studies, representing the Porter hypothesis, argue that environmental regulation motivates firms to innovate, which ultimately improves financial performance. Although much of the debate focuses on long‐run effects, there are also important short‐run effects. This study provides empirical evidence regarding the short‐run and long‐run effects of Clean Water Act regulation on financial performance. To generate this evidence, we examine the effect of permitted wastewater discharge limits, on the return on sales, using panel data on publicly owned firms in the chemical manufacturing industries. We find that Clean Water Act regulation improves financial performance in both the short run and the long run with a stronger effect in the long run. These results suggest that some net benefits may be realized during a short‐run transition to comply with a tighter permitted discharge limit, with additional benefits accruing to the firm in the long run because the firm has more time to innovate. (JEL K23, L25, L51, L65, Q52)     

TWENTY‐FIRST‐CENTURY TRADE GOVERNANCE: FINDINGS FROM THE COMMONWEALTH COUNTRIES

This paper focuses on twenty‐first‐century‐trade governance patterns within the Commonwealth (CW) countries. It uses an augmented gravity model to examine the role of governance in influencing trade and investment flows, and whether enhanced trade governance within the CW countries could potentially foster trade gains, on a both intra‐ and extra‐CW basis. Results show a 10% reduction in the costs incurred for a good to exit a country can increase intra‐CW exports by 5%. Second, contract enforcement is more efficient among CW members, and requires 20% less time compared to the world average. Third, every 1 percentage point improvement in government effectiveness triggers an increase in exports from CW, at 3.4%, compared to the rest of the world, at 2.4%. Finally, trade between CW members is three times higher when they belong to an existing regional trade agreement. (JEL F10, 011, F13)     

STATE‐LEVEL CAPITAL AND INVESTMENT: UPDATES AND IMPLICATIONS

This paper presents state‐by‐state capital stock and gross investment estimates for 1990–2007. I follow the methodology of Garofalo and Yamarik (The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84, 2002, 316–23) and apportion the national capital stock to the individual states using one‐digit NAICS income data. I then test the soundness of the data by estimating a Cobb–Douglas production function and a Solow growth model using a variety of panel data estimators. Under both models, I obtain estimates of the output elasticity for capital that are plausible and close to the observed national income share of one‐third. (JEL O47, O51, R11)     

TROUGH TO PEAK: A NOTE ON RISK‐TAKING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST'S BANKING SECTOR, 2001–2007

Using a cohort of 157 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation insured banks based in the Pacific Northwest, this paper examines regional bank risk‐taking over the 2001–2007 economic expansion. The focus is on on‐balance sheet assets that carry a 100% risk weighting in the calculation of regulatory capital ratios. This study finds that Pacific Northwest banks significantly increased their share of 100% risk‐weighted assets between 2001 and 2007, largely through commercial real estate lending. Asset size, market concentration, age, metropolitan statistical area‐location, and balance sheet capacity for risk‐taking are statistically significant predictors of the change in the share of 100% risk‐weighted assets over the period of interest. (JEL G21, R11)     

TRIBAL CASINO IMPACTS ON AMERICAN INDIANS WELL‐BEING: EVIDENCE FROM RESERVATION‐LEVEL CENSUS DATA

After the passage of the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act in 1988, tribal gaming revenues increased dramatically. Using a differences‐in‐differences methodology with 1990 and 2000 census data, this study finds that American Indians (AI) on gaming reservations experience a 7.4% increase in per capita income and reductions in both family and child poverty rates relative to AI on non‐gaming reservations. Large and medium casinos are associated with changes in well‐being while smaller casinos are not. These results are sensitive to the inclusion of the Navajo reservation, a large non‐gaming reservation with increased income during the 1990s. (JEL I32, L83)     

Australian Trade Policy in the Twenty‐First Century

In the 1980s and 1990s, Australia moved from a protectionist trade policy to very open trade policies. This paper analyses the evolution of these policies in the twenty‐first century: first signing bilateral agreements in the 2000s and then participating in negotiation of mega‐regional agreements (TPP/CPTPP and RCEP). To some extent these shifts have reflected stasis in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and its inability to make agreements on new areas. Underlying drivers of Australia's beyond‐WTO trade agreements have been the fragmentation of trade along global value chains and the emergence of new trade technologies associated with the spread of the internet.     

HOUSING MARKETS AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: THE COMPLEX DYNAMICS OF A CREDIT SHOCK

We analyze the multiple channels of influence that global financial crisis‐induced credit restrictions had on New Zealand's subnational housing markets. The dynamics caused by the credit shock are compared to those caused by a migration shock, a more common form of housing shock in New Zealand. We focus on the impacts on two outcome variables, house prices and housing supply, within a structural time series model of regional housing markets. Both shocks cause substantial and prolonged cyclical adjustments in each variable. Similar cyclical dynamics could complicate the conduct of macroprudential policies designed to affect bank credit allocation. (JEL E32, E44, R21)