偿二代下财产保险公司压力测试

中国第二代偿付能力监管制度体系以风险为导向,综合衡量了保险公司面临的保险风险、市场风险和信用风险等可量化风险的资本要求及相关性,对保险公司偿付能力管理提出了更高的要求和挑战.本文运用动态财务分析方法,建立了第二代偿付能力监管制度体系下的财产保险公司压力测试体系,并测算了基本情景和自测压力情景下中国人民财产保险公司的综合偿付能力充足率.基于压力测试结果,分析了业务增长和投资策略对偿付能力的影响,并构建了单位风险收益率指标,综合评估保险公司的盈利水平和偿付能力.     

中国保险公司动态偿付能力监管探究

保险公司的偿付能力监管是保险监管的核心环节。在当今社会里,随着保险行业的发展,保险公司面临较为严重的偿付能力风险,而原有的静态偿付能力监管已经无法满足对保险公司的偿付能力进行监管。在研究中国保险公司监管现状的基础上,结合其发展所面临的具体风险状况,分析动态偿付能力监管的必要性与合理性,最后提议建立一套标准的具体化的动态偿付能力监管框架。     

我国财产保险公司偿付能力预测的实证研究——基于决策树模型的分析

偿付能力是保险公司稳健经营、持续发展的保证,是保险监管部门监管的核心。在对保险公司偿付能力预测相关文献进行回顾的基础上,基于新会计准则,根据财产保险公司的业务特点,选取了16项财务指标作为预测指标;采用了决策树模型作为研究模型,利用2006—2010年我国财产保险公司的财务数据进行财产保险公司偿付能力的预测研究。预测准确率在85%左右,证明运用决策树模型进行财产保险公司偿付能力的预测效果良好,同时发现资产负债率、应收保费率、毛保费规模率、保费收入增长率、营运杠杆等指标的预警能力较强。     

保险公司偿付能力恶化预测研究

文章在分析公司财务预测研究方法应用前提的基础上,运用MDA模型和Logistic线性回归模型预测方法对我国保险公司偿付能力恶化进行预测研究。结果表明两个主流模型均能在保险公司偿付能力恶化前1~2年较好地进行预测,但是由于两类错估率的不同,MDA模型要优于Logistic模型。     

中国产险、寿险公司偿付能力影响因素对比分析

保险偿付能力是保险公司拓展业务和投资的基本指标,是持续稳定发展的基础,也是国家保险监管部门监管的核心。本文通过对中国产险、寿险公司偿付能力的影响因素的定性分析,从内因外因两个角度确立了解释偿付能力的一系列指标,并运用因子分析方法以及灰色关联度方法,对内外影响因素进行了实证和产寿险对比分析,以期为不同保险公司制定各自的偿付能力管理方案提供依据。     

我国保险公司偿付能力的影响因素及监管措施

保险公司作为经营风险的特殊企业,有着与一般企业不同的特点,它在整个金融体系的正常运行和社会稳定方面扮演着重要角色。因此各国都把保险公司偿付能力作为政府监管的核心内容。我国保险业尚处于初级发展阶段,国内的一些保险公司还存在较重的历史包袱,影响我国保险公司偿付能力的因素也有很多。在欧盟保险偿付能力监管标准Ⅱ所采用的“三支柱”结构体系的基础上,保险监管部门应健全法律法规,加快精算制度建设和精算师的培养,提升保险公司经营管理水平,完善保险公司的财务制度等方面加强对保险公司偿付能力的监管。     

关于ALM在保险公司应用的探讨

中国保险公司一直偏重于发展保险业务规模,对保险资产和负债缺乏合理的经营和管理,从而导致保险公司资产和负债不匹配,保险资金收益率很低,直接影响到保险公司未来的偿付能力和经营的稳定性。要提高保险公司的偿付能力,要求保险公司能树立起高度的风险意识,建立资产负债管理(ALM)的机制,对保险公司的资产和负债进行合理的匹配管理。     

论保险公司偿付能力风险会计预警系统的设立

保险公司的偿付能力风险是保险业经营面临的最重要的风险,是保险公司赖以生存并维持其经营连续性的重要条件,也是保险监管的核心内容。本文试图建立一个保险公司偿付能力风险的会计预警系统,使其事先发现有可能导致偿付能力不足的迹象或征兆,警示管理者采取措施增强公司的偿付能力,降低或消除风险损失。     

我国非寿险公司最低偿付能力的实证研究

保险公司偿付能力监管是保险业三大监管支柱之一,而最低偿付能力是偿付能力监管的重要核心.本文对我国非寿险公司最低偿付能力监管的有效性和合理性进行了实证检验,结合实证检验结果对完善我国非寿险公司最低偿付能力监管提出了建议和对策.     

非寿险偿付能力影响因素的实证分析

本文对影响中国非寿险保险市场偿付能力的各种内部和外部的因素进行了定性的分析。然后根据我国保险市场有效数据少的特点,利用灰色关联分析对各种影响因素进行了定量分析。最后得出了各种风险对偿付能力的影响程度,分析了外部因素和内部因素对偿储能力的相对重要性,并且还分析了目前中国非寿险保险公司的偿付能力应该防范的最大风险,提供给保险监管部门和保险公司参考。     

保险公司偿付能力监管:国际趋势及其对我国的启示

偿付能力监管是保险业监管的核心内容.目前,国际上有代表性的偿付能力监管模式包括以欧盟偿付能力I为代表的基于业务量的模式和以美国风险资本为代表的基于风险的模式.在保险业发展过程中,基于风险的模式将成为保险公司偿付能力监管的趋势.在我国完善保险公司偿付能力监管体系的过程中,应充分借鉴国外已经取得的成果和经验.     

我国保险监管问题研究

在保险经营全球化和国际化的背景下,国际保险监管的组织形式和监管模式越来越朝着趋同的方向发展,主要表现为：关注保险公司未来的风险状况,强化风险资本监管,并实施动态的偿付能力监管。为了加强对保险公司偿付能力的监管,不断完善监管体系,自2008年9月,保监会开始实施新的监管规定——《保险公司偿付能力监管规定》,该规定将保险公司的偿付能力状况作为衡量和防范风险的核心监管依据,在保险监管制度的建设与完善过程中具有里程碑的意义。然而,我国目前的保险监管与以偿付能力为核心的监管体系还存在一定的差距,偿付能力监管制度也只初步完成了框架性的工作,还需要不断的完善和丰富。本文在分析国际保险监管制度特点及发展趋势的基础上,针对我国保险监管中实际存在的问题,提出完善我国保险监管制度的若干建议,以助于保险监管机构提高监管效率,促进我国保险业的健康和可持续发展。     

The interaction between bank solvency and funding costs: A crucial effect in stress tests

This paper presents new evidence on the empirical relationship between bank solvency and funding costs. Building on a newly constructed data set drawing on the supervisory data of 54 large banks from six advanced countries over 2004–2013, we use a simultaneous equation approach with panel data to estimate the contemporaneous interaction between solvency and funding costs. Our results and test statistics show that these two are (a) determined simultaneously and (b) more pronounced than suggested by the existing empirical literature. A 100‐bps increase in regulatory capital ratios is associated with a decrease of bank funding costs of about 113 bps. A 100‐bps increase in funding costs reduces regulatory capital buffers by 48 bps. Applying our estimation results to the 2014 EU‐wide stress test reveals that neglecting the solvency‐funding cost nexus leads to the systematical and significant underestimation of the impact of shocks on bank capital ratios.     

Intertemporal Solvency in the Small Open Economy of Australia

This paper employs cointegration and multicointegration analysis to explore the issue of external solvency in the small open economy of Australia. Results indicate that in the fixed exchangerate era exports and imports are multicointegrated while in the more recent floating exchange-rate period the series do not share a conventional long-run equilibrium relationship. The results are consistent with intertemporal external solvency in the early period and insolvency more recently. Sustainability criteria are reviewed. Indications are that low saving and investment rates may inhibit Australia's abiliry to sustain persistent external imbalances, however, recent fiscal adjustments may work to abate this problem.     

Solvency regulation in the property-liability insurance industry

This paper evaluates guaranty funds and solvency regulations. One main question addressed is how solvency regulations will benefit consumers. Many previous studies have found that most forms of solvency regulations do not have significant deterrent effects on insolvency. Even when solvency regulations are effective, they might still adversely affect consumers. This could happen because increasing the probability of solvency usually requires raising premiums. Therefore, it is interesting to see how regulators should design insurance regulations that benefit consumers. Insolvency of insurance firms provides a unique environment under which one is able to analyze the effects of solvency regulations and guaranty funds on the quality of insurance products and on consumers. This paper shows that guaranty funds are always desirable, but solvency regulations are of certain value only when they have the effect of protecting guaranty funds and alleviating the disincentives which they create.     

中国国情下的保险费率监管模式选择及影响分析--来自车险市场的经验证据

我国保险监管朝着“放开前端、管住后端”的模式发展,保险费率市场化改革的呼声始终较高。文章以财险市场中市场份额最大的车险为研究对象,基于2001－2014年样本分析了费率市场化与费率水平合理性之间的关系。研究发现,我国车险市场的实际费率水平明显低于理论费率;费率监管的严格程度的确会影响费率水平的合理性,其中适度监管模式下的费率水平最为合理。文章进一步深入探究了费率水平合理性对偿付能力的影响机制,发现费率差异的波动性会通过净利润而间接影响偿付能力。费率差异的波动性越小,净利润越高,偿付能力越强,因此应慎重选择费率监管制度。文章建议我国保险市场应采用适度监管的费率制度,完全放开的费率市场化略显激进,不适合当前国情。这样不仅能使费率水平更加合理,还不会威胁保险公司的偿付能力,从而使保险市场更加健康稳步的发展。     

UNIQUE MARKOV EQUILIBRIUM UNDER LIMITED COMMITMENT

I develop a recursive method for the characterization of competitive equilibrium under limited commitment with not-too-tight solvency constraints. The reputational mechanism is fragile, as it sustains constrained efficiency as well as a large set of constrained inefficient equilibria. However, I establish that the only strongly ergodic Markov equilibrium with trade is constrained efficient. The method relies on a planning program along with the theory of monotone concave operators. It is suitable for other applications to macroeconomics and dynamic contracts.     

What do capital inflows do? Dissecting the transmission mechanism for Thailand, 1980–1996

This paper examines the effects of private financial (non-FDI) capital inflows in Thailand in the pre-crisis period (1980:I–1996:IV). Private capital inflows are found to be associated with higher asset prices, lower lending rates, surges in bank lending and domestic spending driven by higher investment, higher output, modest inflation, and modest real exchange rate appreciation. Inflows are also associated with a greater vulnerability to a liquidity crisis, but not with greater external solvency risk. Current account deficits are temporary, thus sustainable, as exports catch up with higher imports within two years. Consequently, the Thai crisis appears to be more of a liquidity crisis than an external solvency crisis.     

How Do Political Factors Shape the Bank Risk–Sovereign Risk Nexus in Emerging Markets?

This paper studies the role of political factors for determining the impact of banking sector distress on sovereign bond yield spreads for a sample of 19 emerging market economies in the period 1994–2013. Using interaction models, I find that the adverse impact of banking sector distress on sovereign solvency is less pronounced for countries with a high degree of political stability, a high level of power sharing within the government coalition, a low level of political constraint within the political system, and for countries run by powerful and effective governments. The electoral cycle pronounces the bank risk–sovereign risk transfer.     

福建省电子类上市公司资本结构影响因素的实证研究

本文采用多元线性回归分析方法,对影响福建省电子类上市公司资本结构的因素进行了回归分析。分析结果表明:企业规模、资产管理能力与上市公司的资本结构呈正相关关系;公司盈利能力、短期偿债能力与资本结构呈负相关关系;成长性、实际税负与资本结构的相关性较小。