Modelling market fundamentals: A model of the aluminium market

The standard approach to modelling primary commodity markets under rational expectations is to relate the commodity price to the production and consumption ‘surprises’ (i.e. the innovations on the equations). Using the world aluminium market, we show how this approach can be modified so that both the price and stock can be written in terms of one or more market ‘fundamentals’ which reflect the supply—demand balance on the market. This approach allows joint estimation of production, consumption, stock demand and price equations subject to cross-equation restrictions. It may be seen as a formalization of the approach adopted by metals industry analysts.     

Strategic Corporate Social Responsibility Activities and Corporate Governance in Imperfectly Competitive Markets

We investigate the incentives of firms' owners to commit voluntarily to corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities in an oligopolistic market. The socially responsible attributes attached to products are considered as credence goods, with consumers forming expectations about their existence and level. We show that hiring an ‘individually’ socially responsible CEO and delegating to him the CSR effort and market decisions acts as a commitment device for the firm's owners and credibly signals to consumers that the firm will undertake the ‘missioned’ CSR activities. We also find that CSR activities are welfare enhancing for consumers and firms and thus, they should be encouraged. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Success in failure? Reflections on the changing Spanish audit environment

The 1990s in Spain have witnessed a significant shift in attitudes towards the role of auditing, with promises of more transparent reporting being replaced by talk of audit expectations gaps. This paper explores the changing atmosphere, both through an analysis of one of the most notorious scandals of recent times - involving the Banco Español de Credito (‘Banesto’) - and a more general review of the way the Spanish profession has responded to such downturns in public expectations of auditing. While at first sight, the profession appears to have become more defensive and the audit environment more competitive, the multinational accounting firms do appear to have strengthened their position in the Spanish audit market. Intriguingly, despite public expressions of concern with the quality and capabilities of auditing and the imposition of large fines on audit firms for inadequate audit work, proposed ‘solutions’ for improving audit quality include the establishment of a self-regulated audit regime and reductions in auditor liability. The Spanish experience allows for some timely reflections on the significance of an audit expectations gap and highlights the importance of viewing the audit function from an international perspective.     

Uptake of organisational work–life balance opportunities: the context of support

This research examines the relationship between structural and cultural dimensions affecting managerial decision-making about work–life balance (WLB) opportunities. Through a top-down study of two contrasting Irish organisations, we identify how each of five dimensions of work–life culture: ‘managerial and organisational support’, ‘organisational time expectations’, ‘career consequences’, ‘gendered perception of policy use’ and ‘co-worker support’ are mediated through managers to affect availability and uptake of WLB opportunities and creating gaps between policy and practice. This study demonstrates how marked distinctions between the personal opportunities managers may wish to offer and the discretion available to them arise. Secondly, the concept of organisational work–life culture is advanced by elaborating the ‘context of support’, namely interdependencies between organisational culture and structure that affect the uptake of WLB opportunities. Implications for researchers and practitioners are also discussed.     

Matching structure and strategy: Towards a market orientation in health care

The introduction of an ‘internal’ or ‘managed’ market mechanism into the National Health Service required fundamental structural reorganisation, involving the separation of purchaser and provider functions. While a degree of structural change has occurred among the emergent purchasing organisations subsequent to the initial reforms, there is a lack of corresponding evidence of ongoing structural change in acute provider units. Despite the existence of a direct relationship between organisational structure and strategy, the extent of change in the organisational structure of hospitals is questionable. Indeed at the macro level current acute hospital structures, that is NHS Trusts, are remarkably similar to ‘pre-reform’ structures, despite the unsuitability of these structures for the market orientation required by the internal market. Such prevalence arguably reflects the marginal effect that current managerial structures have had on those delivering services and the predominance of the medical hierarchies. Specifically, those responsible for the marketing of hospital services in current structures are not directly linked to those who deliver the service, in spite of the introduction of clinical directorate structures. Part of a broader study of the market behaviour of acute NHS Trusts in Scotland, this paper explores the organisational avenues open to health care providers to overcome this separation in the pursuit of market-led service delivery and concomitant market orientation.     

The time-series properties of the risk premium in the Yen/Dollar exchange market

In this paper a VAR model is employed to construct a measure of the conditional expectations of the future yen/dollar spot rate. This measure allows us to examine the dynamics of an ex-ante time-series for the risk premium in the market. The VAR model produces ‘better’ forecasts than the survey responses for turbulent periods such as 1981–1982 and 1984–1985. The VAR-generated expectations are then used to construct a risk premium time-series. This risk premium series seems to be more reliable than the ones obtained using either survey data on expectations of the future spot exchange rate or the ex-post realized spot exchange rate. Tests on the risk premium series suggest that a risk premium was present, but that it was virtually constant throughout the sample. The conditional variance of the risk premium changed over time, but its unconditional distribution seemed stable across subsamples. Despite these features, the volatility of the series was substantial and varied considerably throughout the sample.     

Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics

Macroeconomic time-series data are aggregated, inaccurate, non-stationary, collinear and rarely match theoretical concepts. Macroeconomic theories are incomplete, incorrect and changeable: location shifts invalidate the law of iterated expectations and ‘rational expectations’ are then systematically biased. Empirical macro-econometric models are non-constant and mis-specified in numerous ways, so economic policy often has unexpected effects, and macroeconomic forecasts go awry. In place of using just one of the four main methods of deciding between alternative models, theory, empirical evidence, policy relevance and forecasting, we propose nesting ‘theory-driven’ and ‘data-driven’ approaches, where theory-models’ parameter estimates are unaffected by selection despite searching over rival candidate variables, longer lags, functional forms, and breaks. Thus, theory is retained, but not imposed, so can be simultaneously evaluated against a wide range of alternatives, and a better model discovered when the theory is incomplete.     

Central bank’s forecasts and lack of transparency: An assessment of the effect on private expectations in a large emerging economy

We analyze whether the Central Bank of Brazil’s Inflation Reports projections influences the private’s inflation expectations. Specifically, we investigate how the central bank’s inflation forecasts affect the private sector’s inflation expectations through a qualitative and quantitative examination of the disagreement measure between them. Furthermore, we appraise if the lack of transparency resulting from the difference between the central bank’s inflation forecasts and the realized inflation affects the private’s inflation expectations. Although the findings confirm the previous studies that point out that the central bank transparency can affect the readjustment of market expectations, the results do not rule out the possibility of the central bank’s forecast and private’s inflation expectations being affected reciprocally.     

Hypothesis of Price Formation in Input–Output Tables

The goal of this paper is to check if different theoretical approaches to price formation can be verified in the structure of empirical input–output tables. From a propositive point of view, the hypothesis is made of two different markets (the ‘industrial’ market of intermediate and investment goods; and the ‘commercial’ market of final consumption goods), with two different mechanisms of price formation. The consequences of this hypothesis are outlined as regards deflation procedures. An empirical test of the theories about price formation and of the method of deflation suggested by the two-market hypothesis is made using 1985 Italian input–output tables at 1980 prices.     

Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations

This study examines the role of households’ expectations in predicting the housing boom–bust cycles in the United States. It incorporates two nonlinear features of housing price dynamics: a threshold co-movement between households’ expectations and housing price growth and a structural break in their interrelation. It uses the monthly good-time-to-buy (GTTB) index as a proxy for households’ expectations about the U.S. housing market, and employs the structural break threshold vector autoregression (SBTVAR) to specify breakpoints in housing market dynamics during the recent decades. The findings indicate that shifts in interactions between households’ expectations and housing price growth are synchronous with the recent housing boom–bust cycles. The SBTVAR framework outperforms other models as it captures more of the housing market's unique dynamic characteristics. The GTTB index, which governs expectation regime-switching patterns, is able to signal the recent housing bust three periods in advance.     

“I have to go the extra mile”. How fat female employees manage their stigmatized identity at work

This study explores how fat female employees engage in identity work to manage stigmatizing expectations grounded in healthism and obesity discourse that construct fat people as unhealthy, stupid, unprofessional, and lazy. We interviewed 22 women who self-identified as fat, full-figured or obese. Our analysis reveals how our participants engaged in identity work strategies in order to project a professional appearance and highlight their work performances. Many strategies reproduced dominant notions about fatness such as ‘smartening up’, ‘distracting’, ‘hiding’, ‘concealing’, ‘humour’, ‘compensating’, ‘explaining’ and ‘defensive Othering’. Yet at times some participants also used strategies that challenged dominant discourses about size, such as ‘flaunting’, ‘irony’ and ‘self-acceptance’. The identity work strategies our participants engaged in were not just narrative; many involved what they did with their bodies. We therefore argue the need for further theorizing embodied identity work, specifically with regards to how size matters in the context of employment.     

Heterogeneous expectations in the gold market: Specification and estimation

The increase in the price of gold between 2002 and 2011 appears to be a candidate for a potential asset price ‘bubble’, suggesting that chartists (feedback traders) were highly active in the gold market during this period. Hence, this paper develops and tests empirically several models incorporating heterogeneous expectations of agents, specifically fundamentalists and chartists, for the gold market. The empirical results show that both agent types are important in explaining historical gold prices but that the 10-year bull run of gold in the early 2000s is consistent with the presence of agents extrapolating long-term trends. Technically this paper is a further step toward providing an empirical foundation for certain assumptions used in the heterogeneous agents literature. For example, the empirical results presented in this paper compare the economical and statistical significance of numerous switching variable specifications that are generally only introduced ad hoc.     

The contours of employee voice in SMEs: the importance of context

This article develops a context‐sensitive approach to analyse how and why voice operates in small‐ to medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs), an area that remains under‐theorised and under‐researched. By building on a priori frameworks with proven ability to unpack complexity and take account of the wider context of SMEs, this article explores how resources (human and social capital) and constraints (product market, labour market and strategic orientation) interact to shape voice practices. The article finds significant differences between ‘reported’ compared with ‘actual’ practices in situ, and identifies different types of firms (‘strategic market regulation’, ‘strategic market‐led’ and ‘non‐strategic market‐led’) along with the factors that influence the form and practice of voice. Overall, the article argues that researchers should further pursue research that appreciates the layered nature of ontology and the role played by firm context to explain complex organisational phenomena, if we are to advance our understanding of voice practices in SMEs and beyond.     

Are employment decisions based on rational expectations?

Conventional employment functions with partial adjustment to output fitted to quarterly data tend to have positively autocorrelated residuals, to imply implausibly high returns to scale and almost always fail tests for parameter stability. The hypothesis of this paper is that mis-specified expectations are the main cause of these findings and rational and adaptive expectations models are compared. Further, employment is conditioned not on output but on variables which firms can more reasonably take as exogenous. ‘Disequilibrium’ features of labour markets are introduced by making adjustment costs depend upon current and expected labour market tightness.One of the implications of rational expectations is that the revision between points in time t and $\text{t ? 1}$ in the expected value of any variable should be independent of any information available before t and serially uncorrelated. Given a model of a forward looking firm whose hiring decisions are subject to quadratic adjustment costs, an appropriately transformed employment equation can be derived which has a very similar structure to the Koyck transformed employment equation which corresponds to adaptive expectations. Maximum likelihood estimation of the adaptive expectations form gives parameter estimates for quarterly British data for the manufacturing sector which are so unreasonable that this hypothesis can be rejected. Maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations form would involve modelling the stochastic processes of all the driving variables. However, conditional upon one parameter, consistent estimates of the remaining parameters can be obtained by OLS and these accord well with economic theory. This is the direct evidence in favour of the rational expectations hypothesis. However, it can also explain why the adaptive expectations form gives such poor results and why conventional employment functions give the unsatisfactory results referred to above. Further, rational expectations provides an explanation for the common finding, particularly in the context of employment and the demand for durable goods, of implausibly low or wrong signed levels effects in more general quarterly time series models with lagged dependent variables.     

‘Market failure’ arguments are a poor guide to policy

‘Market failure’ is frequently offered as a justification for government intervention in the economy. Proponents of interventions can point to almost limitless examples of markets which do not meet all the criteria for Pareto optimality and argue that government taxation, subsidies or regulation can perfect them, maximising social welfare. But comparing market outcomes with an unattainable and unidentifiable ideal is not useful in a world of imperfect knowledge and government failure. It is better to compare market outcomes against realistic alternatives. Furthermore, even within the market failure paradigm, concepts such as ‘public goods’ and ‘negative externalities’ are routinely misunderstood and inconsistently applied. This leads to predictably poor policy outcomes.     

Beyond Prototypes: Drivers of Market Categorization in Functional Foods and Nanotechnology

We develop a nuanced understanding of what drives producers’ and audiences’ categorization activities throughout market category development. Prior research on market categories assumes prototypical similarity to be the main or even only driver of categorization. Drawing on a comparative, longitudinal case study of the market categories ‘functional foods’ and ‘nanotechnology’ in Finland, we find that evolving perceptions, knowledge, and goals also impact categorization. Furthermore, our analysis uncovers that goal‐based categorization is characteristic for vital market categories, and the lack thereof may mark a waning interest and category decline. Overall, while previous research stresses the role of clear boundaries and knowledge bases for a viable category, we find that overly strict boundaries may constrain category vitality and renewal.     

Finance and Growth: Evidence from Some Arab Countries

Abstract

Some analysts contend that the ‘size effect’ -the higher returns associated with small-capitalization companies over those with large-capitalization, are a myth. Most empirical studies to date relate to U.S. stock exchanges. Since the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange is considered an ‘emerging market,’ it is valuable to explore this phenomenon in this market.

This empirical study considers the performance of individual stocks and two alternative portfolios. The results show that the ‘size effect’ does not exist on the TASE, and that the large-capitalization stocks and portfolios generated higher returns versus their small-capitalization counterparts. Thus, the ‘size effect’ may only be a myth.     

Identification of rational expectations models

This paper deals with the problem of the identification of simultaneous Rational Expectations (RE) models. In the case of RE models with current expectations of the endogenous variables, the necessary and sufficient conditions for the global identification are derived explicitly in terms of the structural parameters and the linear homogenous identifying restrictions. It is shown that in the absence of a priori restrictions on the processes generating the exogenous variables and the disturbances, RE models and general distributed lag models are ‘observationally equivalent’. In the case of RE models with future expectations of the endogenous variables, a general solution that highlights the ‘non-uniqueness’ problem and from which other solutions such as forward or backward solutions can be obtained, is derived. It is shown that untestable and often quite arbitrary restrictions are needed if RE models with future expectations are to be identifiable. Certain order conditions similar to those obtained for the identification of RE models with current expectations are also derived for this case.     

The effectiveness of socially sustainable sourcing mechanisms: Assessing the prospects of a new form of joint regulation

The traditional mechanisms for improving and protecting labour standards in advanced economies are failing. In Britain, the effectiveness of collective bargaining has diminished substantially over the past quarter century. Legally enforceable minimum labour standards have been an inadequate substitute. A new form of ‘joint regulation’ is emerging that may be better attuned to the contemporary structure of product market competition. It involves employers and unions coordinating action on labour standards across the supply chains of firms that contribute to the production of a particular good or service. This article explores the circumstances in which these ‘socially sustainable sourcing’ mechanisms develop and examines their impact on labour standards, by means of two case studies.     

Yield curve responses to market sentiments and monetary policy

Central banks recently started to target longer term interest rates. The empirical failure of the rational expectations theory of the yield curve, however, limits its applicability to monetary policy analysis. The success of agent-based behavioral asset pricing models and behavioral macroeconomic models in replicating statistical regularities of empirical data series motivates to apply them to yield curve modeling. This paper analyses how the interaction of monetary policy and market sentiments shape the yield curve in a behavioral model with heterogeneous and bounded-rational agents. One result is that the behavioral model replicates empirical facts of term structure data. Moreover, it overcomes one major deficiency of rational expectations models of the yield curve in explaining the empirically observed uncertain responses of longer term yields to changes in the central bank rate. These are explained by the behavioral model’s ability to generate different responses of market sentiments to shocks at different times which lead to a variety of interest rate responses. Further results of this paper can be used as policy advice on how central banks can target the level, slope and curvature of the yield curve by targeting market sentiments about inflation and the business cycle.