What’s wrong with Pittsburgh? Delegated investors and liquidity concentration

What makes an asset institutional quality? This paper proposes that one reason is the existing concentration of delegated investors in a market through a liquidity channel. Consistent with this intuition, it documents differences in investor composition across US cities and shows that delegated investors concentrate their investments in cities with higher turnover. It then estimates a search model showing how heterogeneity in liquidity preferences makes some markets more liquid, even when assets have identical cash flows. The paper provides evidence for clientele equilibria arising in frictional asset markets and suggests that a liquidity channel may explain divergent paths in city development.     

Piggy Banks: Financial Intermediaries as a Commitment to Save

Banks and other intermediaries may help savers commit to investment plans that savers could not stick to if they held assets directly. We illustrate this commitment function using a version of the Diamond and Dybvig (1983) model where savers’ short-run liquidity needs are correlated with shocks to investment opportunities. The investment securities are all freely tradeable, yet savers still do better if they delegate their investment decisions to an intermediary that overrides the savers’ liquidity demands when investment opportunities warrant. Bank CDs, insurance annuities, pensions, and even social security, by locking funds out of reach, may all constitute real world examples of this commitment role of financial intermediaries.     

全球流动性过剩中的对冲基金:国际新动向及其对中国的启示

全球流动性过剩导致全球金融资产激增,推动对冲基金业规模迅速膨胀。与此同时,对冲基金业也出现了新的变化:投资者结构出现了机构化趋势,并受到监管当局日趋严厉的监管。这也使得对冲基金的收益和风险水平有了新的变化,呈现稳中趋降的态势。全球经济失衡和流动性过剩也推动对冲基金在全球寻找套利和投机机会,对全球的金融稳定产生一定的影响。中国需要审慎地推进资本项目开放和加强对冲基金的监管。     

The Discount Rate in Emerging Markets: A Guide

There is considerable controversy about the correct discount (or "hurdle") rate to use when performing valuations of investments in real assets in emerging markets. The topic is particularly relevant because of the growing need to evaluate privatizations, direct private acquisitions, and greenfield investments in new productive facilities throughout the world.
This article argues that the traditional practitioners' approach of building a country risk premium into the discount rate is generally inappropriate, mainly because country risk is not the same for all projects nor is it totally systematic. Moreover, there is no reason for the discount rate to be closely related to the spread on the government bonds of the country concerned. The author also points out that, in determining the appropriate discount rate, what is important is not the segmentation of the market, but the extent to which the investor is locally or globally diversified. The article accordingly reviews a selected group of models for calculating discount rates for both segmented and integrated markets. Adjustments to the valuation procedure are also suggested for cases in which investors are not well diversified or the investment is illiquid.     

Do Alternative Real Estate Investment Vehicles Add Value to REITs? Evidence from German Open-ended Property Funds

Besides the more commonly used REITs, German investors can also invest in a lesser-known real estate vehicle, Open-ended Property Funds. OPFs are considered a compromise between listed and direct real estate investments. OPF fund managers generally provide daily (perfect) liquidity. However, if liquidity falls below 5%, share redemptions in these funds can be temporarily suspended for a period of up to two years. During this time, investors will only be able to sell shares on the secondary market (exchange), and are thus subject to significant liquidity risk. The objective of this paper is to analyze whether OPFs add value to investor portfolios above that provided by REITs. We show that OPFs have a diversification advantage over REITs in low-risk portfolios, despite their larger potential liquidity risk. REIT liquidity is comparable to that of ordinary common stock, but OPFs exhibit an average initial discount to funds’ NAV of about 6% when share redemptions are temporarily suspended. However, in the long-run, this potential redemption suspension does not negatively influence OPF performance (in case OPFs reopen again). This makes OPFs an attractive investment alternative to REITs for investors who have a high level of risk aversion and a long-term investment horizon, such as endowments, insurance companies, and pension funds.     

Stocks for the long run? Evidence from emerging markets

We estimate the myopic (single-period) and intertemporal hedging (long-run) demand for stocks in 20 growth-leading emerging market economies during the 1999–2012 period. We consider two types of investors: a domestic investor who invests in emerging-market assets only (with returns in local currency) and an international investor who invests in both US and emerging-market assets (with returns in US dollars). We establish economically relevant short-run and long-run demand for stocks in several emerging market economies, for both domestic and international investors. From a welfare perspective, however, the myopic demand for emerging-market stocks is much more important than the hedging demand. Further international diversification and foreign currency hedging by the international investor do not alter this conclusion. Hence, for both domestic and international investors emerging-market stocks are mainly assets for the short run.     

Credit constraints,firms׳ precautionary investment,and the business cycle

Credit constrained firms prefer types of capital that generate significant pledgeable output and are liquid, since they loosen current and future credit constraints. Because pledgeability and liquidity are low for long-term firm-specific capital, a negative temporary aggregate productivity shock that tightens credit constraints creates a bias towards liquid short-term investments. This dampens the short-run negative output reaction to the shock, at the expense of strong medium-run propagation effects. This mechanism can create a short-run expansion when a future tightening in credit conditions is anticipated.     

The economics of PIPEs

Private investments in public equities (PIPEs) are an important source of finance for public corporations. PIPE investor returns decline with holding periods, while time to exit depends on the issue's registration status and underlying liquidity. We estimate PIPE investor returns adjusting for these factors. Our analysis, which is the first to estimate returns to investors rather than issuers, indicates that the average PIPE investor holds the stock for 384 days and earns an abnormal return of 19.7%. More constrained firms tend to issue PIPEs to hedge funds and private equity funds in offerings that have higher expected returns and higher volatility. PIPE investors’ abnormal returns appear to reflect compensation for providing capital to financially constrained firms.     

Are hedge funds active market liquidity timers?

This paper investigates liquidity timing behaviour of hedge funds that invest globally in foreign investment assets. We expect these hedge funds to manage currencies exposure differently, depending on the extent they treat them as an asset class. In this paper, we investigate if actively timing foreign exchange (FX) liquidity adds value to hedge funds' investments. Unlike the existing studies where fund managers are assumed to either time or not time the market over the entire study period, we argue that fund managers may strategically choose to be active market liquidity timers based on the market condition at the time. To test this hypothesis, we develop a state-dependent liquidity timing model embedded with a Markov regime switching process and identify changes in the FX liquidity timing behaviour among the Global Derivatives hedge funds over an eighteen-year period. Our findings reveal that such regime changes in timing behaviour are driven by the underlying FX liquidity condition. A further analysis to compare the changes in the timing behaviour over time shows that hedge funds that are active market liquidity timers outperform those that engage in liquidity timing less frequently in all strategies categories.     

Corporate financial and investment policies when future financing is not frictionless

We study a model in which future financing constraints lead firms to have a preference for investments with shorter payback periods, investments with less risk, and investments that utilize more pledgeable assets. The model also shows how investment distortions towards more liquid, safer assets vary with the marginal cost of external financing and with firm internal cash flows. Our theory helps reconcile and interpret a number of patterns reported in the empirical literature, in areas such as risk-taking behavior, capital structure choices, hedging strategies, and cash management policies. For example, contrary to Jensen and Meckling [Jensen, M., Meckling, W., 1976. Theory of the Firm: managerial behavior, agency costs, and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics 305–360], we show that firms may reduce rather than increase risk when leverage increases exogenously. Furthermore, firms in economies with less developed financial markets will not only take different quantities of investment, but will also take different kinds of investment (safer, short-term projects that are potentially less profitable). We also point out to several predictions that have not been empirically examined. For example, our model predicts that investment safety and liquidity are complementary: constrained firms are specially likely to decrease the risk of their most liquid investments.     

Liquidity,Technological Opportunities,and the Stage Distribution of Venture Capital Investments

This paper explores the determinants of the stage distribution of European venture capital investments from 1990 to 2011. Consistent with liquidity risk theory, we find that the likelihood of investing in earlier stages increases relative to all private equity investments during liquidity crisis years. While liquidity is the main driver of acquisition investments and, to some extent, of expansion financings, technological opportunities are overall the main driver of early and late stage venture capital investments. In contrast to the dotcom crash, the recent financial crisis negatively affected the relative likelihood of expansion investments, but not of early and late stage investments.     

The European Venture Capital and Private Equity country attractiveness indices

We calculate composite indices to compare the attractiveness of 27 European countries for institutional investments into the Venture Capital and Private Equity asset class. To achieve this we use 42 different parameters, and propose an aggregation structure that allows for benchmarking on more granulated levels. The United Kingdom leads our ranking, followed by Ireland, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway. While Germany is slightly above the average European attractiveness level, the scores are rather disappointing for France, Italy, Spain, and Greece. Our analyses reveal that while the UK is similar to the other European countries with respect to many criteria, there are two major differences, which ultimately affect its attractiveness: its investor protection and corporate governance rules, and the size and liquidity of its capital market. The state of the capital market is likewise a proxy for the professionalism of the financial community, for deal flow and exit opportunities. We determine a reasonable correlation between our attractiveness index scores and actual Venture Capital and Private Equity fundraising activities and prove the robustness of our calculations. Our findings across all the European countries suggest that, while investor protection and capital markets are in fact very important determinants for attractiveness, there are numerous other criteria to consider.     

Transaction costs, trading volume, and the liquidity premium

In a market with one safe and one risky asset, an investor with a long horizon, constant investment opportunities and constant relative risk aversion trades with small proportional transaction costs. We derive explicit formulas for the optimal investment policy, its implied welfare, liquidity premium, and trading volume. At the first order, the liquidity premium equals the spread, times share turnover, times a universal constant. The results are robust to consumption and finite horizons. We exploit the equivalence of the transaction cost market to another frictionless market, with a shadow risky asset, in which investment opportunities are stochastic. The shadow price is also found explicitly.     

The Effects of Private Investments in Public Equity on R&D Investment in Small and Medium-Size Enterprises

This paper provides evidence that small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) use a portion of private investments in public equity (PIPEs) for current research and development (R&D) investment, hold the rest in liquidity reserves such as cash assets and working capital, and ultimately use these reserves to smooth R&D investment. That is, PIPEs may have a direct effect on R&D investment and an indirect or smoothing effect using liquidity reserves. This paper also shows that innovative SMEs such as venture businesses, inno-biz firms, and management innovative firms are more likely to use PIPEs for R&D investment than are noninnovative SMEs. The implications of this paper are that PIPEs can be used as an important source of external financing to fund R&D investment and can be particularly valuable for R&D investment in innovative SMEs.     

Investor protection and the liquidity of cross-listed securities: Evidence from the ADR market

Using ‘American depository receipt’ (ADR) data on various countries, this paper sets out to investigate the relationship between investor protection and firm liquidity. Since weak investor protection leads to greater expropriation by managers, and thus greater asymmetric information costs, liquidity providers will incur relatively higher costs and will therefore offer higher bid–ask spreads. The empirical results demonstrate that the liquidity costs of poor investor protection were more significant during the period of the Asian financial crisis when the expected agency costs were particularly severe. This issue is further analyzed by investigating whether there is any evidence of increases in the vulnerability of ADRs of firms operating in countries with relatively poor investor protection mechanisms during periods of financial crisis.     

VIX and liquidity premium

Previous studies find as the VIX goes up, the return and the Sharpe ratio on liquidity provision increase. We argue these two phenomena are correlated because they depend on the same fundamentals: investors’ risk aversion, asset variances and asset correlations. Our theoretical model shows (1) when investors are more risk-averse, they expect a higher return for providing liquidity, (2) when assets are volatile, liquidity shocks create stronger trading demands and thus liquidity demanders pay a higher premium, and (3) when assets are highly correlated, the higher risk of spillover of liquidity shocks across assets raises the price of liquidity. An increase in any of these three factors, besides increasing the expected return and the Sharpe ratio of liquidity providers, leads to a higher value for the VIX index. Our empirical analyses show that one standard-deviation increase in each of these three factors raise liquidity providers’ expected daily return (annualized Sharpe ratio) by 0.16%, 0.38% and 0.40% (0.82, 1.27 and 2.10 units), respectively.     

金融创新、投资者逃离与央行危机救助

从1970年的商业票据危机到2008年的全球金融危机,历史上发生过多次因金融创新的复杂性诱发投资者逃离进而演化为金融危机的事件,而危机的最终化解多借助于央行的危机救助。本文基于投资者逃离模型,从金融创新及其产生的投资者不确定性出发讨论金融危机中投资者逃离行为,并通过对投资者逃离行为的分析探讨央行危机救助的时点与方式。本文认为,就金融危机的事前预防而言,央行应在创新工具运用的过程中引导金融机构开展充分的投资者教育及对创新工具的总规模进行适当限制从而降低危机发生的概率和破坏性;就金融危机的事后救助而言,央行危机救助的时点应放在投资者对未来的不确定性突然增加并开始调整原有策略的时刻,救助的主要措施是承诺在一定条件下购买资产或注入流动性,从而降低投资者不确定性,促使投资者改变逃离市场的策略或者至少避免投资者逃离成为群体行为。     

Portfolio Insurance with Liquidity Risk

This paper studies a portfolio insurance problem with liquidity risk. We consider an investor who wants to maximize the expected growth rate of wealth in a low liquid market. The investor can trade assets only at random times and his wealth must not fall below a predetermined floor. We find the optimal expected growth rate and an optimal strategy. The optimal strategy is closely related with a traditional constant proportion portfolio insurance strategy. Also we show that the same strategy maximizes the growth rate almost surely. Further we study the floor effect on the growth rate.     

Equilibrium Dynamics in an Endogenous Growth Model of Money and Banking

We construct an analytically tractable endogenous growth model of money and banking where money provides "liquidity services" to facilitate transactions and banks convert non-reserve deposits into productive capital. We examine both the long- and short-run effects of changes in the money growth rate or the reserve requirement ratio. In response to a change in the required reserve ratio, the inflation rate and the growth rates of capital, real balances, and consumption need not adjust monotonically along the transition path. While the balanced growth equilibrium may be either a saddle or a source locally, the global dynamical system exhibits flip bifurcation.     

Commitment, banks and markets

We examine how banks and financial markets interact with one another to provide liquidity to investors. The critical assumption is that financial markets are characterized by limited enforcement of contracts, and in the event of default only a fraction of borrowers’ assets can be seized. Limited enforcement reduces the fraction of assets that can be used as collateral and thus individuals subject to liquidity shocks face borrowing constraints. We show how banks endogenously overcome these borrowing constraints by pooling resources across several depositors, and increase the liquidity provided by financial markets.