The assessment: globalization and labour-market adjustment

Over the last two decades there has been a significant deteriorationin the labour-market outcomes of less-skilled labour in mostOECD countries. This has manifested itself either in terms ofa decline in wages relative to the most skilled, or in termsof the relative likelihood of being in work. Much recent researchhas focused on the impact of trade and skill-biased technicalchange as alternative explanations of the phenomenon; some hasalso investigated the role of cross-border investment and migration.This paper reviews recent research on globalization and labour-marketadjustment and sets the scene for the papers that follow.     

The impact of economic geography on wages: Disentangling the channels of influence

This paper evaluates the role of economic geography in explaining regional wages in China. It investigates the extent to which market proximity can explain the evolution of wages, and through which channels. We construct a complete indicator of market access at the provincial level from data on domestic and international trade flows; this is introduced in a simultaneous-equations system to identify the direct and indirect effect of market access on wages. The estimation results for 29 Chinese provinces over 1995–2002 suggest that access to sources of demand is indeed an important factor shaping regional wage dynamics in China. We investigate three channels through which market access might influence wages beside direct transport-cost savings: export performance, and human and physical capital accumulation. A fair share of benefits seems to come from enhanced export performance and greater accumulation of physical capital. The main source of influence of market access remains direct transport costs.     

The impact of foreign direct investment on wages and employment

This paper studies the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI)on wages and employment When labor-management bargaining isindustry-wide, two effects of FDI are identified; the collusioneffect and the threat-point effect. It is shown that: (i) FDIalways reduces the negotiated wage; (ii) FDI reduces union employmentand the competitive wage if die union cares more about employmentthan wages or is equally concerned about employment and wages.However, if labor-mingement bargaining is firm-specific andunionization is industry-wide, then the above effects of FDIare substantially reduced.     

Intersectoral adjustment and the dynamics of wages and employment opportunities

Zusammenfassung Intersektorale Anpassung und die Dynamik von L?hnen und Besch?ftigungsm?glichkeiten. - Dieser Aufsatz untersucht mit Hilfe eines einfachen ZweiSektoren-Modells die Dynamik der Anpassung auf dem Arbeitsmarkt, und zwar insbesondere die Art, in der die entscheidenden Parameter des Modells zusammenwirken, um sowohl auf kurze als auch auf lange Sicht die Reaktion der Wirtschaft auf St?rungen der Güter- und Faktorm?rkte zu bestimmen. Die Strukturparameter, die in der Studie hervorgehoben werden, umfassen den Grad der intersektoralen Faktormobilit?t, die Schnelligkeit der Lohnanpassungen in expandierenden und schrumpfenden Sektoren sowie die Bedeutung der intersektoralen Lohnunterschiede im Verh?ltnis zum Risiko, arbeitslos zu bleiben, für den Entschlu?zum Ortswechsel.

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Résumé Ajustement intersectoriel et la dynamique des salaires et des possibilités d’emploi. - Cet article examine la dynamique d’un ajustement sur le marché du travail dans un simple modèle d’une économie à deux secteurs. Les auteurs se concentrent sur la manière avec laquelle les paramètres les plus essentiels agissent de déterminer la réponse de l’économie- à court terme et à long terme — aux perturbances sur les marchés des biens et des facteurs. Les paramètres structurels soulignés dans l’article incluent le degré de la mobilité intersectorielle de la main d’oeuvre, la vitesse d’ajustement de salaire dans les secteurs en expansion et en contraction ainsi que l’importance du differentiel intersectoriel de salaire, comparé avec le risque de rester sans emploi, pour la décision de changer l’occupation.

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Resumen Ajuste intersectorial y la dinámica de salarios y puestos de empleo. - Este trabajo examina la dinámica de ajuste en el mercado de trabajo en el contexte de un modelo simple de una economía con dos sectores. Se presta atention a la manera en la cual interact?an los parámetras cruciales del modelo para determinar la reacción de la economía a alteraciones en los mercados de bienes y de factures, tanto en el corto como en el largo plazo. Los paramétras estructurales estudiados incluyen el grado de mobilidad laboral intersectorial, la velocidad de ajuste salarial en el sector en expansión y en el sector en contraction y la importancia de la différencia salarial intersectorial en relación al riesgo de permanecer sin empleo en el caso de tomar la decisión de migrar.

     

The impact of education on income inequality and intergenerational mobility

This paper analyses the effects of innate ability, compulsory education (grades 1–9), and non-compulsory education (grades 10–12 and higher education) on inequality and intergenerational mobility of income, by constructing a four-period overlapping-generation model. We find that innate ability and family investment in early education play important roles in explaining income inequality and intergenerational income mobility. Though children from the wealthiest families are only 1.36 times ‘smarter’ that those from the poorest, the gap in human capital expands to 2.35 at the end of compulsory education and to 2.89 at the end of non-compulsory education. One important reason for the increase is that poor families invest relatively less in children's early education than do wealthy families; therefore, their children attend lower-quality schools, which results in them being much less likely to participate in higher education. By simulating policy experiments for different types of government education expenditure, we find that direct subsidies to poor parents are the most efficient and effective policy for mitigating poor families' budget constraints with regard to early-education investment in their children.     

The inequality trap. A comparative analysis of social spending between 1880 and 1930

It is often assumed that the fight against inequality played an important role in the rise of the welfare state. However, using social transfers as an indicator of redistribution and three alternative proxies for inequality—the top income shares, the ratio of the GDP per capita to the unskilled wage, and the share of non‐family farms—this article shows that inequality did not favour the development of social policy between 1880 and 1930. On the contrary, social policy developed more easily in countries that were previously more egalitarian, suggesting that unequal societies were in a sort of inequality trap, where inequality itself was an obstacle to redistribution.     

Immigration and labour-market outcomes in the United States: a political-economy puzzle

Based on a larger survey of the literature (Gaston and Nelson,2000), this paper argues: (i) that econometric research uniformlyfinds very small labour-market effects of immigration; (ii)that labour and trade economists have differed in their interpretationof this finding; and (iii) that this difference is driven exclusivelyby different dimensionality assumptions (with labour economistspreferring a 1-sector x m-factor model and trade economistsan n-sector x m-factor model). It is then argued that the tradeeconomists' model, along with its presumption of factor-priceinsensitivity to immigration is the more useful as a presumptiongenerator. The paper concludes with a discussion of the political-economyimplications of these results.     

Male wages and female welfare: private markets, public goods, and intrahousehold inequality

We show how an apparently welfare improving phenomenon likean increase in the wage of the male member of a family can resultin a seemingly paradoxical result where the entire family isworse off. There is male and female specialization in activitiessuch that the female member is involved in a community levelpublic good. A rise in the male wage leads to adjustment ofhousehold time allocation with the male working more in themarket and less on household activities. In turn, the femaleworks more on household activities and less on the communitypublic good, failing to internalize the negative externalityimposed on other members of the community. Under quite generalconditions the implied negative effect can more than offsetthe positive effect of the male wage raise, and the entire familyis worse off. The theoretical results are consistent with empiricalfindings in the literature.     

Institutions, wages, and inequality: The case of Europe and its periphery (1500–1899)

This paper explores the long-run relationship between institutions and wage outcomes in Europe and its periphery. I find that cities that exercised stronger institutional protection of private property experienced: (i) higher levels of both skilled and unskilled real wages, as well as (ii) lower levels of inequality as measured by the skilled–unskilled wage ratio. While the first result corroborates existing work on the positive growth effects of better institutions, the second finding is more novel to the literature. Some explanations are proposed for how stronger institutions can cause an increase in the relative supply of skilled workers, thus lowering wage inequality.     

High benefits and low wages: Employees as monitor of management in SOEs

Employees do play a role in corporate governance as important stakeholders of modern enterprises. In the absence of financial and managerial labor markets in centrally planned economies (CPE), the owner of state enterprises (SOEs) has no effective mechanisms to discipline management. Therefore, the role of employees in corporate governance becomes much more important in SOEs than in the typical capitalist private firm. We posit that low wages and generous benefits in SOEs provide incentives for employees to monitor management. Other employment arrangements, especially lifetime job security and centralized wage scale, are also conducive to the monitoring of management by employees. A formal model shows that benefits tied to firm performance, designed properly, induce employees to monitor management. It also suggests that the existence of a market for managers tends to undermine this mechanism.     

The impact of rising oil prices on oil-importing developing countries and the scope for adjustment

Zusammenfassung Die Auswirkungen steigender ?lpreise auf die ?limportierenden Entwicklungsl?nder und der Spielraum für Anpassungen. — In diesem Aufsatz werden mit Hilfe eines Simulationsmodells sowohl die Auswirkungen steigender ?lpreise auf die ?limportierenden Entwicklungsl?nder als auch die Anpassungsma\nahmen untersucht, die dazu beitragen, diese Folgen weitgehend zu mildem. Ermittelt werden die Wirkungen auf das Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsprodukts, die Inflationsrate und die Handelsbilanz von Brasilien, Indien und Kenia. Es zeigt sich, da\ nach einer ?lpreiserh?hung das Realeinkommen am st?rksten zurückgeht und die Inflationsrate am h?chsten ist, wenn die Nominall?hne der Inflationsrate angepa\t werden. Die geringsten Einbu\en für das Realeinkommen ergeben sich, wenn die Staatsausgaben nicht durch die Inflation aufgezehrt, sondern real aufrechterhalten werden. Die Kehrseite der Medaille ist, da\ sich die Handelsbilanz bei voller Anpassung der L?hne am wenigsten und bei konstanten realen Staatsausgaben am st?rksten verschlechtert. Ein beruhigendes Ergebnis ist, da\ alternative Annahmen über die Einkommens- und Preiselastizit?ten die Resultate der verschiedenen Simulationen nicht wesentlich beeintr?chtigen.

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Résumé Les effets des prix pétroliers accroissants sur les pays développants importants du pétrole et la marge d’ajuster. — Dans cet article les auteurs appliquent un modèle de simulation pour analyser les effets des prix pétroliers accroissants sur les pays développants importants du pétrole aussi bien que les mesures d’ajustement qui contribuent à mitiger largement cet effet. On démontre les effets sur la croissance du produit intérieur brut, le taux d’inflation et sur la balance commerciale du Brésil, de l’Inde et du Kenya. On a trouvé que le revenu réel se réduit le plus et l’inflation s’accroit le plus après une augmentation du prix pétrolier si les salaires nominaux sont ajustés suivant le taux d’inflation. L’effet le plus faible sur le revenu réel est obtenu si les dépenses du gouvernement ne sont pas érodées par l’inflation mais maintenues en terme réel. Le revers de la médaille est que la balance commerciale se détériore le moins dans le cas d’un ajustement complet des salaires et qu’elle est affectée le plus dans le cas mentionné en dernier lieu. Un résultat rassurant est que des suppositions alternatives sur les élasticités de revenu et de prix n’influencent pas significativement le résultat des simulations différentes.

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Resumen El impacto de precios del petróleo crecientes sobre los países en desarrollo importadores de petróleo y el ámbito de ajuste. — En este artículo se analizan mediante la utilización de un modelo de simulación el impacto de precios del petróleo crecientes sobre países en desarrollo importadores de petróleo como también las medidas de ajuste que ayudan a suavizar ampliamente este impacto. El modelo se aplicó para mostrar el impacto sobre el crecimiento del producto geográfico bruto, la tasa de inflaeión y la balanza comercial de Brasil, India y Kenia. Se descubrió que después de un aumento de precios del petr?leo la declinación del ingreso real es mayor y la inflaeión es la más alta si los salarios nominales se ajustan en la misma proporeión que la tasa de inflaeión. El impacto ’mas bajo sobre el ingreso real se obtiene si el gasto del Gobierno no se erosiona por la inflaeión y se mantiene en términos reales. La otra cara de la medalla es que en el caso de ajuste total de los salarios, la balanza comercial se détériora en la menor proporeión mientras que en el último caso es afectada en la mayor proporeión. Un resultado reconfortante es que suposiciones alternativas sobre elasticidades de ingresos y precios no afectan significativamente los resultados de las variadas simulaciones.

     

The economic impact of the Russian import ban: a CGE analysis

The aim of this paper is to assess the economic impact of the Russian embargo from 7 August 2014 on certain agricultural food products from the EU, the USA, Norway, Canada and Australia. The effects of this economic sanction are analysed in the framework of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a particular focus on bilateral and total exports, production and welfare. The detailed, based on real trade data, calibration of the model allows for an exact identification of the sectoral shares and prohibitive tariffs aggregated to match the CGE model’s sectoral level of aggregation. In addition, the paper carries on a validation exercise to compare the model’s predictions with real trade data developments. The modelling simulation results show that the impact of the ban on total exports of the EU, the USA, Norway, Canada and Australia is limited. Nevertheless at a disaggregate level there are sectors – ‘vegetables and fruits’, ‘other meat’ and ‘dairy products’ – which experience two digit percentage change declines.     

The effect of mergers on employment and wages: Evidence from Japan

This study investigates the impact of mergers on employment and employees’ wages in Japan, based on 111 mergers between listed firms observed between 1990 and 2003. Typically, the number of employees decreases by 4.45% three years after a merger, even after changes in sales and other variables are controlled. Firms that experience related mergers, and rescue mergers are more likely to decrease the number of workers. At the same time, wages increase by 5.46% per employee. These results suggest that the main motivation behind mergers is not to divest employees of their wealth.     

Productive government expenditure and its impact on income inequality: evidence from international panel data

Review of World Economics - This paper addresses the impact of productive government expenditure on income inequality using a dataset of 80 countries over the period of 1980–2015. It...     

The impact of agricultural technology adoption on income inequality in rural China: Evidence from southern Yunnan Province

This study analyzes the impact on income inequality of government efforts to increase agricultural incomes in rural China. It collects and analyzes survey data from 473 households in Yunnan, China in 2004. In particular, it investigates the effects of government efforts to promote improved upland rice technologies. Our analysis shows that farmers who adopted these technologies had incomes approximately 15% higher than non-adopters. Despite this relatively large increase, we estimate that the impact on income inequality was relatively slight. This is primarily due to the fact that lower-income farmers adopted the improved rice technology at rates that were roughly equivalent to those of higher-income farmers.     

The quality of environmental impact assessment in Malawi: a retrospective analysis

This paper draws on a survey of the 32 environmental impact assessment (EIA) reports approved in Malawi after six years of mandatory EIA. With the aim of assessing the extent to which the requirements of the EIA process have been complied with and determining which EIA components influenced the apparent compliance, it is shown that the quality of the reports is poor, with most of the EIA requirements being unsatisfactorily adhered to. The components that contributed to the poor quality are analysis of alternatives, consultation and public participation, scoping and environmental audit. Substance problems that affect the adequacy of the EIAs, practice problems dealing with the administration of the EIA process, and contextual problems and deficiencies in the EIA law are specifically identified as the flaws responsible for the poor quality. It is thus recommended, for EIA quality to improve, that the flaws be addressed, and particularly the factors which are inducing them.     

Unemployment duration and unemployment insurance: a comparative analysis based on Scandinavian micro data

Based on pooled register data from Norway and Sweden, we findthat differences in unemployment duration patterns reflect dissimilaritiesin unemployment insurance (UI) systems in a way that convincinglyestablishes the link between economic incentives and job searchbehaviour. Specifically, UI benefits are relatively more generousfor low-income workers in Sweden than in Norway, leading torelatively longer unemployment spells for low-income workersin Sweden. Based on the between-countries variation in replacementratios, we find that the elasticity of the outflow rate frominsured unemployment with respect to the replacement ratio isapproximately one in Norway and 0.5 in Sweden.