Real (adaptation) options and the valuation of equity: some empirical evidence

Data from 1,374 firms across four broad industrial groupings are used to assess the contribution that real (adaptation) options make to overall equity values. The analysis indicates that real (adaptation) options make a significant contribution to the equity value of firms with a market to book ratio (of equity) of around unity or less. As the market to book ratio grows beyond this level, however, the contribution made by real (adaptation) options decays quickly away and equity values are mainly comprised of the present value of the dividends that firms are expected to pay. This means that for around one in every five of the firms in our sample real (adaptation) options make a significant contribution to overall equity value. Thus, while linear equity valuation models would seem to be appropriate for the substantial majority of firms on which our sample is based, there is a sizeable minority of firms where real (adaptation) options have a significant impact on equity values. For this latter group of firms there will be a non-linear relationship between equity value and its determining variables. This has important implications for the regression procedures that are applied in this area of accounting research.     

Earnings Momentum,Adaptation Value,and Nonlinearities in the Valuation of Chinese Equity Stocks

We demonstrate that when the variables comprising a firm's investment opportunity set depend on their past values then the present value of the cash flows the firm expects to earn will be stated in terms of the levels and the momentum of the affected variables. It is also shown that the market value of a firm's equity is comprised of the present value of the cash flows it expects to earn from operating under its existing investment opportunity set plus the value of the real options the firm possesses to modify or even completely change its existing investment opportunity set. Our empirical analysis, based on both Chinese and US data, shows that earnings momentum and the adaptation and growth options typically available to firms all appear to have a significant impact on equity prices.     

Modeling dividends,earnings, and book value equity: An empirical investigation of the ohlson valuation dynamics

This study empirically investigates the information dynamics of the Ohlson valuation framework. Single-period lagged linear autoregressive relationships among dividends, earnings, and book values of equity are estimated for a sample of stochastically stationary firms and are found not to support the valuation framework. This study further extends the empirical analysis to a multilagged vector autoregressive linear information system. Consistent with the Ohlson valuation framework,the past time series of all three variables are generally found to be relevant for firm valuation. This study brings into question empirical research utilizing the Ohlson framework that presupposes a single-period lagged information dynamic.     

Brand Equity and Firm Risk: An Empirical Investigation in an Emerging Market

The aim of this article is to investigate the relationship between brand equity and firm risk in Turkey using a sample of 254 firm-year observations for the period 2009–2014. Our findings suggest that brand equity is an important determinant of equity risk in addition to conventional firm-specific variables. In particular, after controlling for firm-specific variables, the results reveal that firms with high brand equity experience lower volatility in stock returns. We also find that enhancing brand equity is an important tool for firms in reducing unsystematic and downside systematic risk in their stock prices. Our findings are robust to different valuation models of domestic and global investors as well as different methods of estimations. The results are encouraging for both marketing managers and investors, particularly those in emerging markets where stock price volatility is relatively higher than in developed markets.     

Binomial basis for linear information dynamics: real options, dividends and the valuation of equity

Analytical research has confirmed that real options give rise to the kind of nonlinearities observed in practice between equity prices and the figures appearing on corporate financial statements. We develop these real option values in terms of a quasi 'supply-side' model of linear information dynamics based on simple discrete time binomial filtration processes. Our analysis shows that the linear models that pervade the empirical (and analytical) work of the area, will almost certainly suffer from an omitted variables problem. Parameter estimation will then be inconsistent and inefficient.     

On-market share buybacks, exercisable share options and earnings management

Chan et al. (2006b ) suggest that managers might announce a share buyback to manipulate investors’ perceptions and capitalize on the positive price reaction usually associated with the announcement. The incentive to do so is greater when managers have exercisable options. Prior studies document that managers engage in upwards earnings management for opportunistic reasons related to option holdings (Bergstresser and Philippon, 2006). We examine the association between earnings management and exercisable option holdings for buyback firms to investigate if earnings management in the pre‐buyback period is greater for firms with equity incentives to increase share price. Our results, using 138 buybacks over the period 1996–2003, support our prediction. We find that buyback firms with both exercisable options that are in‐the‐money prior to the buyback announcement as well as options that are exercised in the buyback period have higher discretionary current accruals than buyback firms with no exercisable options, unexercised options or with out‐of‐the‐money options. Overall, our results are consistent with buyback firms with exercisable options using earnings management and buyback announcements to maximize option payoffs, and buyback firms without exercisable options signalling undervaluation.     

Corporate Governance and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Germany

Recent empirical work shows evidence for higher valuation of firms in countries with a better legal environment. We investigate whether differences in the quality of firm‐level corporate governance also help to explain firm performance in a cross‐section of companies within a single jurisdiction. Constructing a broad corporate governance rating (CGR) for German public firms, we document a positive relationship between governance practices and firm valuation. There is also evidence that expected stock returns are negatively correlated with firm‐level corporate governance, if dividend yields are used as proxies for the cost of capital. An investment strategy that bought high‐CGR firms and shorted low‐CGR firms earned abnormal returns of around 12% on an annual basis during the sample period.     

Employee Stock Options, Equity Valuation, and the Valuation of Option Grants Using a Warrant-Pricing Model

We investigate the use of a warrant‐pricing approach to incorporate employee stock options (ESOs) into equity valuation and to account for the dilutive effect of ESOs in the valuation of option grants for financial reporting purposes. Our valuation approach accounts for the jointly determined nature of ESO and shareholder values. The empirical results show that our stock price estimate exhibits lower prediction errors and higher explanatory powers for actual share price than does the traditional stock price estimate. We use our valuation approach to assess the implications of dilution on the fair‐value estimates of ESO grants. We find that the fair value is overstated by 6% if we ignore the dilutive feature of ESOs. Furthermore, this bias is larger for firms that are heavy users of ESOs, small, and R&D intensive, and for firms that have a broad‐based ESO compensation plan.     

Risk-taking incentives of executive stock options and the asset substitution problem

Various theoretical models show that managerial compensation schemes can reduce the distortionary effects of financial leverage. There is mixed evidence as to whether highly levered firms offer less stock‐based compensation, a common prediction of such models. Both the theoretical and empirical research, however, have overlooked the leverage provided by executive stock options. In principle, adjusting the exercise prices of executive stock options can mitigate the risk incentive effects of financial leverage. We show that the near‐universal practice of setting option exercise prices near the prevailing stock price at the date of grant effectively undoes most of the effects of financial leverage. In a large cross‐sectional sample of Canadian option‐granting firms, we find evidence that executives' incentives to take equity risk are negatively rather than positively related to the leverage of their employers.     

Equity prices and fundamentals: a DDM–APT mixed approach

This paper focuses on the linkage between equity prices and fundamentals for 27 individual shares belonging to the French stock price index (CAC40). To assess fundamental value, the traditional dividend discount model (DDM) is coupled with the arbitrage pricing theory (APT), which assumes that investors hold efficient portfolios. This yields a simple equity valuation relationship for which the APT determines the long-term risk premium included in the DDM. Accordingly, equity risk premia are determined by common factors reflecting the non diversifiable risk. These factors are not a priori identified by the theory, and therefore must be exhibited through an empirical analysis. Four domestic and three international common factors are found, all being among those identified by empirical analyses of the APT in the literature. While studies related to stock price indices showed that DDM fundamental values are very smooth compared to stock indices, our DDM–APT model reproduces both trends and major fluctuations of share prices. Further, as for studies based on stock indices, a mean-reverting process of equity prices towards fundamentals is highlighted, but the linear error correction model that was considered contains shortcomings suggesting a more complex adjustment process.     

EVIDENCE THAT GREATER DISCLOSURE LOWERS THE COST OF EQUITY CAPITAL

The effect of corporate disclosure on the cost of equity capital is a matter of considerable interest and importance to both corporations and the investment community. However, the relationship between disclosure level and cost of capital is not well established and has proved difficult for researchers to quantify. As described in this article, the author's 1997 study (published in The Accounting Review) was the first to measure and detect a direct relationship between disclosure and cost of capital. After examining the annual reports of 122 manufacturing companies, the author concluded that companies providing more extensive disclosure had a lower (forward‐looking) cost of equity capital (measured using Value Line forecasts with an EBO valuation formula that derives from the dividend discount model). For companies with extensive analyst coverage, differences in disclosure do not appear to affect cost of capital. But for companies with small analyst followings, differences in disclosure do appear to matter. Among this group of companies, the firms judged to have the highest level of disclosure had a cost of equity capital that was nine‐percentage points lower than otherwise similar firms with a minimal level of disclosure. Closer analysis of some of the specific disclosure practices also suggests that, for small firms with limited analyst coverage, there are benefits to providing more forward‐looking information, such as forecasts of sales, profits, and capital expenditures, and enhanced disclosure of key non‐financial statistics, such as order backlogs, market share, and growth in units sold. In closing, the article also discusses an interesting new study (by Lang and Lundholm) that suggests there is an important distinction between effective corporate disclosure and “hyping the stock.” The findings of this study show that while higher levels of disclosures are associated with higher stock prices, sudden increases in the frequency of disclosure are viewed with skepticism.     

Developing Dividend and Financing Policies with a Computer Terminal

This study examines the value relevance of mandated disclosures by UK firms of the investor‐firm share of liabilities of equity‐accounted associate and joint venture investees. It does so for the six years following the introduction of FRS 9: Associates and Joint Ventures, which forced a substantial increase in such disclosures by UK firms. Since the increased disclosure requirements were partly motivated by concern that single‐line equity accounting concealed the level of group gearing, and in light of previous US results, it is predicted that the mandated investee‐liability disclosures have a negative coefficient in a value‐relevance regression. The study also examines whether value‐relevance regression coefficients on investee‐liability disclosures are more negative for joint ventures than for associates and whether they are more negative in the presence of investor‐firm guarantees of investee‐firm obligations than in the absence of such guarantees. The study reports that the coefficient on all investee‐liability disclosures taken together has the predicted negative sign, and is significantly different from zero. It finds little evidence that the negative valuation impact of liability disclosures is stronger for joint venture investees overall than for associate investees overall, or stronger for guarantee cases overall than for non‐guarantee cases overall. There is, however, some evidence that the impact for joint venture guarantee cases is stronger than that for joint venture non‐guarantee cases and stronger than that for associate guarantee cases.     

Managerial gaming of stock and option grants

In this paper, we examine managerial gaming of different types of equity grants, both at the initial award of the equity grants (front‐end gaming) and the unwinding of the equity holdings in the future (back‐end gaming). We find that the potential gains from stock price manipulation vary substantially across different types of equity grants. While traditional stock option grants are less vulnerable to front‐end gaming, they are more vulnerable to back‐end gaming than other types of equity grants (e.g., restricted stock grants). To prevent or discourage managerial gaming, firms should preset all terms of the equity grant in advance and link its future payoff to average stock prices (e.g., by granting Asian stock options).     

Non‐additivity in Accounting Valuation: Theory and Applications

This paper has three objectives. First, to introduce a theoretical solution to the issue of non‐additivity between assets in place, relying on an accounting‐based valuation approach. Second, to explain how such an approach can be implemented empirically by measuring synergies between assets. Third, to present the properties of this non‐additive valuation technique. We use Choquet capacities, that is, non‐additive aggregation operators, to measure the interactions between assets and apply our methodology to a sample of US firms from the capital goods industry. To operationalize our approach we examine the relationships between synergies—captured by Choquet capacities—and the market‐to‐book ratio (proxying for growth options), and show how interactions between assets are consistently linked to a firm’s market‐to‐book ratio. We also measure firm‐specific productive efficiency relative to the industry and firm size. For large firms, efficiency, as defined by our approach, is positively associated with higher future operating cash flows. For small firms, efficiency is positively associated with higher future sales growth. We document that the non‐additive approach appears to be better able to identify expected relationships between efficiency and future performance than a simpler approach based on the market‐to‐book ratio.     

Valuation Weights,Linear Dynamics and Accounting Conservatism: An Empirical Analysis

Residual income models provide an important theoretical link between equity valuation and financial statement variables. While various researchers have developed models of how accounting policy impacts on the structure of these models, empirical support for these models is at best weak and frequently contradictory. In this paper, we develop an analytical model, which identifies the dependency between valuation weights in residual income models and the associated structure of earnings information dynamics and accounting conservatism. In contrast to many earlier studies, we find strong evidence of conservatism in our reformulation of the linear dynamics. We proceed to test our predictions of the dependency of the weights on two measures of conservatism, the conventional measure of price‐to‐book ratio and the recent measure of a C‐Score index developed by Khan and Watts (2009) and find that the empirical results accord well with our theoretical predictions in the case of the former but not the latter measure.     

The Real Options Component and Market Value of Taiwan Technological Companies

Real options valuation has been applied in real investment extensively. However the empirical researches of real options components’ value are seldom studied. This study uses the panel data model to test whether the stock prices of Taiwan listed companies reflect investor’s expectations regarding the value of real options. This article demonstrates that investors cannot ignore the real options components when evaluating stock market value. The results also confirm that the proportion of a firm’s market value not due to assets-in-place is significantly and positively related to the variables of stock beta, skewness of stock returns, size, capital stock, and research and development. In addition, firms with lower firm life cycle have a higher real options value.     

How does law affect finance? An examination of equity tunneling in Bulgaria

We model and test the mechanisms through which law affects tunneling and tunneling affects firm valuation. In 2002, Bulgaria adopted legal changes which limit equity tunneling through dilutive equity offerings and freezeouts. Following the changes, minority shareholders participate equally in equity offerings, where before they suffered severe dilution; freezeout offer price ratios quadruple; and Tobin's q rises sharply for firms at high risk of tunneling. The paper shows the importance of legal rules in limiting equity tunneling, the role of equity tunneling risk as a factor in determining equity prices, and substitution by controlling shareholders between different forms of tunneling.     

Financial Distress and the Cross‐section of Equity Returns

We explicitly consider financial leverage in a simple equity valuation model and study the cross‐sectional implications of potential shareholder recovery upon resolution of financial distress. Our model is capable of simultaneously explaining lower returns for financially distressed stocks, stronger book‐to‐market effects for firms with high default likelihood, and the concentration of momentum profits among low credit quality firms. The model further predicts (i) a hump‐shaped relationship between value premium and default probability, and (ii) stronger momentum profits for nearly distressed firms with significant prospects for shareholder recovery. Our empirical analysis strongly confirms these novel predictions.     

Convertible Debt Issuance and Market Completeness

Recent empirical evidence on option listings supports the notion that equity options help to span the market. This paper investigates the role of convertible debt in market completion. To the extent that the warrant portion of convertible instruments is similar to a call option, the securities can provide payoffs in states of nature that were previously unspanned. Stockholders of firms without listed options or pre-existing warrant-related securities suffer less severe wealth declines around convertible offerings than do owners of firms with contingent claims on their stock. The results suggest that, particularly before the rise of options on index futures, convertible debt played a market-spanning role similar to that of equity options.