Social democracy and the decline of strikes

This paper tests if a strong labor movement leads to fewer industrial conflicts. The focus is on Sweden between the first general election in 1919 and the famous Saltsjöbaden Agreement in 1938, a formative period when the country transitioned from fierce labor conflicts to a state of industrial peace. We use panel data techniques to analyze more than 2000 strikes in 103 Swedish towns. We find that a shift of political majority towards the Social Democrats led to a significant decline in strikes, but only in towns where union presence was strong. The strike-reducing mechanism is related to corporatist explanations rather than increased social spending in municipal budgets.     

Taylor法则的实证研究:以1990年代的香港为例

本文研究90年代香港利率的决定模式。近年来,Taylor(泰勒)法则越来越多地被应用于货币研究。该法则认为短期利率可定义为产出缺口和通胀目标偏离的线性函数。尽管这一法则适用于很多经济体,但未必适用于香港。因为香港起码在两个方面跟别的经济体不同:没有与其他经济体相同的央行(或货币当局),与此同时,它又是一个国际金融中心。通过实证研究我们得出如下结论:与其他经济体不同,虽然通胀偏离和产出缺口在香港利率决定中的作用不可忽视,但金融变量如股价似乎在利率决定中起更大的作用。     

政府在香港发展中的角色与作用

香港殖民地政府将1949年后的香港经济成长和社会发展奇迹解释为政府有效施政的结果.本文表明,港英政府在很长一段时期都没有清晰的社会政策和产业政策,公共支出亦缺乏明确的政策原则和取向.香港经济的自由放任、积极不干预性质都只是政府被动施政的结果,跨境加工贸易体系的发展主要源于外部因素的推动.到20世纪80年代,港英政府实施了取消金融市场管制的消极产业政策,导致了香港经济金融房地产化.由于缺乏积极的工业政策,香港的跨境加工贸易体系很难转型,最终只会剩下金融房地产化的产业和日趋单一的经济结构.     

香港:自由贸易区的典范--成思危副委员长赴港调研散记

2002年6月中旬,成思危副委员长利用赴香港出席《大公报》创刊100周年庆祝活动的机会,对香港发展自由贸易港的情况进行了调研。他听取了香港贸发局和香港工商专联的情况介绍,实地考察了中远公司8号集装箱码头。在调研中,香港有关方面希望内地继续改善投资环境,加强内地与香港的合作,做到优势互补,共同发展。在中国加入WTO后,香港面临广东南部一些港口的竞争,但仍具有自由贸易港的独特优势。目前,内地的保税区迫切需要向自由贸易区转型,香港自由贸易港的发展经验可资借鉴。     

Macroeconomic Forecasting in Hong Kong: A Survey

This study reports the results of a survey on how the business firms, government, and academics in Hong Kong prepare their forecasts, what methods they prefer, whether they keep records of forecasting performance, and the usage of their forecasts. The survey questionnaire was sent to fortynine participants and the results showed that subjective techniques are commonly used by Hong Kong firms in various forecasting situations despite the increasing availability of computers that make possible the efficient use of quantitative forecasting techniques. Also, very few firms performed accuracy analysis for their forecasts. The lack of records of forecasting accuracy suggests that business firms in Hong Kong are likely to continue to use a technique that fails to perform.     

庆祝香港回归祖国10周年特辑——推进沪港经济合作的三大举措

沪港经济合作历史悠久，成绩显著。尤其是20世纪70年代末，中国实施改革开放政策以来，沪港经济合作进入了历史发展的最佳时期。香港在上海的对外开放中创下了一连串的“第一”：第一个来沪投资制造业，第一个进入经济技术开发区，第一个投资房地产，等等。     

香港经济发展面临的挑战和未来的展望——访香港内地经济合作先行者：潘进源议员

香港是一个细小而开放同时又是高度依赖国际贸易的自由市场经济体.在缺乏自然资源的环境下,食品和原料均需要从外输入,容易受到环球经济的反复波动影响.由于香港经济发展至成熟阶段,经济增速会逐步回落,预计2014年至2041年间实际本地生产总值平均每年增长2.8％,低于1997年以来平均每年3.4％的增长水平.     

香港人民币离岸市场的发展与预期风险

全球金融危机的爆发使中国货币当局意识到推进人民币国际化的必要性与紧迫性。由于资本项目的未完全开放和人民币尚未实现可自由兑换,为了稳步推行人民币国际化进程,香港成为发展人民币离岸市场的首选之地。伴随一系列相关政策措施的出台,香港人民币离岸市场日益发展壮大。本文在考察人民币跨境贸易结算试点实施以来香港人民币离岸市场流动性的形成、债券市场的演进和金融衍生品市场的现状的基础上,总结了现阶段香港人民币离岸市场发展的特点,探讨了香港人民币离岸市场在未来发展中可能面临的主要问题和预期风险,并提出了相应的对策与建议。     

The spread of empire: Clio and the measurement of colonial borrowing costs1

Modern cliometric studies use dummy variables to measure the effects of institutions. The dummy variable approach can be misleading, as illustrated by recent research on the impact of colonial rule on borrowing terms. We show how trying to measure a ‘colonial effect’ without an analysis of the financial consequences of political subjection can be misleading. The main effect of the British Empire was to remove the default risk. Establishing how this was done, and with what effects, should take us closer to a proper understanding of the effect of empire.     

The two sterling crises of 1964 and the decision not to devalue1

Conventional wisdom is critical of the newly elected Labour government's reaction to external financial difficulties in the autumn of 1964. Anxious about its political position, it avoided the necessary measures, involving stringent deflation and possibly devaluation. This article seeks to revise the traditional view by re‐examining the response to what were actually two sterling crises. The first was handled efficiently. The second was provoked by speculation stemming from market expectations of devaluation. The decision not to devalue but seek external support was justifiable, given changes within the international economy which were to create problems for many postwar nation states.     

外部冲击下香港联系汇率制度的完善与干预机制

本文基于香港金管局发布的年报、半年报、季度报和新闻稿研究联系汇率制度在实践中的完善与改进,考察汇率制度历年的运行状况,探讨香港金管局对外汇市场的干预策略与特点。研究表明,香港金管局不断适时微调联系汇率制度,并辅以技术改进,以提高制度的运作效率;在严重的金融危机中,香港金管局始终坚守承诺,果敢出手干预,赢得了市场的信任。在利率正常时期,香港金管局通过总结余—市场利率—港元汇率来干预外汇市场;当利率处于超低水平时,香港金管局通过扩大交易规模来影响汇率变化。     

港元联系汇率制度可持续性研究

随着世界经济环境的变化,中国经济逐渐崛起,美国经济开始趋弱,欧盟经济逐渐提升;美元贬值、人民币升值压力加大,香港的联系汇率制度面临着新的挑战和冲击。本文就是在此背景下,通过定性分析和计量(Johansen协整检验)实证研究,得出香港联系汇率制度需要改革,港元最终与人民币统一的前期,钉住包括美元、欧元、人民币等"一篮子"货币是一个很好的选择,香港现在正处于改革汇率制度的良好时机。     

Evaluation of the Reverse Mortgage Option in Hong Kong

The reverse mortgage is a very useful financial product for senior citizens who own homes but do not have a cash income, while it is a high‐risk product from the lender's perspective. One of benefits of reverse mortgages is that the debt limit is restricted to the scope of the disposition price of the collateralized house, which is considered a put option to borrowers. The present study evaluates the option value of the reverse mortgage in Hong Kong through an empirical analysis using the Black–Scholes option‐pricing model. Moreover, the present study shows specific monetary values through option matching to the consumer situation, contributing to the increased understanding of reverse mortgages from the consumer's point of view.     

2004年第1季度香港与内地经济联系指数（HMCDI指数）

在上季创下历史新高之后，本季香港与内地经济联系指数回落至120．94，比上季下降了6．16，但仍高于上年同期水平。     

围绕《农业六十条》的农村大调查

本文对 1 96 1至 1 96 2年中国共产党围绕制定和修改《农业六十条》展开的大规模调查作了比较全面、深入地探讨。指出了这次调查经历的不同阶段和特点 ,阐明了调查的成果与意义 ,分析了调查存在的缺点、局限及其对当时和后来产生的深刻影响 ,总结了历史的经验教训。