AN ANALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS IN JAPAN: A FACTOR AUGMENTED VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH*

This paper analyses monetary policy shocks in Japan using a factor augmented vector autoregressive approach. There are three main findings. First, the time lags with which the monetary policy shocks are transmitted vary between the various macroeconomic time series. These include several series that have not been included thus far in standard vector autoregressive analysis, including housing starts and employment indices. Second, a coherent picture of monetary policy effects on the economy is obtained. Third, it is found that monetary policy shocks have a stronger impact on real variables, such as employment and housing starts, than industrial production.     

INEQUALITY AND POVERTY IN JAPAN*

This paper presents a brief survey of inequality and poverty in Japan. It shows empirical evidence on the extent of both inequality in income distribution and of poverty rates; the paper discusses the cause of increases in both these variables, and the implication of such trends. The paper goes on to argue the difference between inequality of opportunity and inequality of outcome and shows some related empirical evidence. Finally, the paper investigates the relationship between economic efficiency and equity, supposed to be in a trade‐off relationship, and presents my personal view of that relationship and policy recommendations.     

EXCESS SMOOTHNESS OF CONSUMPTION IN JAPAN*

The purpose of this paper is to test whether excess smoothness of consumption, which is not consistent with the permanent income hypothesis (PIH), is observed in Japan. Two simple testing procedures are employed and several measures of Japanese aggregate consumption are used in the analysis. Further, for purposes of comparison, US aggregate data and Japanese income quintile group data are also used. The findings of the paper are the following: all estimates of the consumption variability ratio indicate an excess smoothness of consumption in Japan; the results of tests of PIH differ depending on the testing procedures and the measures of consumption used, in contrast to the results for the US; and the consumption variability ratio is likely to be smaller in lower income groups. This suggests the possible existence of significant liquidity constraints or transactions costs in Japan.     

MEDIA CAPTURE AND INFORMATION MONOPOLIZATION IN JAPAN*

We investigate the unique institution of the Japanese press industry called the kisha club system. By tracing through its history, we show how the kisha club system has developed as a result of the government's attempt to control the media, and the media's incentive to use the opportunity provided by the government to limit rivalry within the industry. By providing a simple model that links the distribution of political power and the media capture, we explain why this institutional arrangement has been so persistent in Japan.     

MACROECONOMIC POLICY AND ELECTIONS IN OECD DEMOCRACIES*

The purpose of this paper is to test for evidence of opportunistic “political business cycles” in a large sample of 18 OECD economies. Our results can be summarized as follows: 1) We find very little evidence of pre-electoral effects on economic outcomes, in particular, on GDP growth and unemployment; 2) We see some evidence of “political monetary cycles,” that is, expansionary monetary policy in election years; 3) We also observe indications of “political budget cycles,” or “loose” fiscal policy prior to elections; 4) Inflation exhibits a post-electoral jump, which could be explained by either the pre-electoral “loose” monetary and fiscal policies and/or by an opportunistic timing of increases in publicly controlled prices, or indirect taxes.     

JAPAN IN THE NEW WORLD CONFRONTATION: A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE*

In terms of the history of modern economic growth the major axis of world confrontation has always been between early and late comers to industrialization. Severe confrontation arises typically when a late-comer is believed to have developed a model of economic development capable of allowing it to catch up with or even overtake the economic power of the countries that industrialized early. Rises and falls of the various catch-up models in the modern history are examined. In this historical perspective the characteristics of confrontation are identified between the system of developmental market economies in Japan and Asian NIES and the system of liberal market economies in Western countries.     

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF NON‐TRADITIONAL MONETARY POLICY MEASURES: THE CASE OF THE BANK OF JAPAN*

This paper summarizes non‐traditional monetary policy measures adopted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) during the last 2 decades and by other G7 central banks since the start of the current global financial turmoil and analyses the effectiveness of such measures. The paper begins with a typology of policies usable near the zero lower bound on interest rates. They are: (i) forward guidance of future policy rates; (ii) targeted asset purchases; and (iii) quantitative easing. Using this typology, I review the measures adopted by the BOJ and other central banks. I then offer a news analysis of the effects of the measures adopted by the BOJ on asset prices, comparing them with those adopted by the Fed. Many of the measures, with the exception of strategy (iii), are shown to have moved asset prices in the expected directions. Another exception is that most of the monetary easing measures failed to weaken the yen. Despite some effects on asset prices, however, the measures have failed to stop the deflationary trend of the Japanese economy clearly. I discuss some possible reasons for this and more general implications for monetary policy.     

INNOVATION AND COMPETITION POLICY*

This paper discusses the issue of competition policy and innovation. First, a short review on the theoretical analysis of competition and innovation is provided, relying on the recent book by Aghion and Griffith (2005 ). Then, we examine how such innovation related issues as collaborative research, patent pool, merger in the technology intensive sector and bundling in the software industry are treated under Japan's Anti‐Monopoly Act. We contend that traditional competition policy framework is capable of dealing with innovation related issues but there are several points that should be kept in mind when competition policy deals with innovation related issues.     

SCHOOL CHOICE AND STUDENT SORTING: EVIDENCE FROM ADACHI WARD IN JAPAN*

We examine whether the school choice programme of public junior high schools in Adachi ward has caused student sorting and has thus increased the differences in scores between the schools. We find that students are sorted in the sense that the students living in the school attendance areas where there is a higher proportion of high‐status occupations are more likely to select private schools even after the introduction of the school choice programme, or they select public schools with higher scores. Adachi's average scores relative to the Tokyo average have improved, while the between school differences in scores have not expanded.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL INCENTIVES FOR COMPANY PRESIDENTS AND FIRM PERFORMANCE IN JAPAN*

Kaplan (1994 ) concludes that the relationship between top pay and stock performance in Japan is similar to that in the USA. Using a new and comprehensive data set that includes presidents’ stock and their stock option holdings, this study estimates the sensitivity of Japanese presidents’ wealth to shareholder wealth in the period 1977–2000. Contrary to the commonly held belief that Japanese corporate governance is becoming more like that in the USA, the results show that pay–performance sensitivity actually decreased substantially after 1990. In 2000, Japanese presidents received $US22,100 when stock returns increased from ?2.1% to 14.8%.     

THE ESTIMATION OF THE INCIDENCE OF EMPLOYER CONTRIBUTIONS TO SOCIAL SECURITY IN JAPAN*

The present paper estimates the incidence of the employer portion of social security contributions in Japan. One of the purposes of the paper is to examine whether the employer portion is shifted entirely or partly in many industrialized countries. The paper concludes, based on our estimation method, that there is very little apparent backwards shifting on to employees and, therefore, employers bear nearly all of their portion of social security contributions. Firms in Japan could use their contributions to social security for other purposes to reduce the financial burden on firms.     

DESIGNING POLICY TO OPEN TRADE*

In this paper we consider recent proposals to auction U.S. import quotas, using the funds so obtained to encourage relocation out of the protected industries. We first discuss the design of quota auctions so as to maximize revenue for the government. We then consider why quota auctions should be used at all, rather than simply using tariffs, or immediately opening trade and compensating people with income transfers. We argue that the information available to the government, or lack thereof, is a critical factor in understanding these policies.