Demographic transition,education and economic growth in Tunisia

This paper provides empirical evidence supporting the interaction between fertility, education and economic growth through the underlying mechanism behind that correlation in accordance with Becker's theory. In consistency with the theory, the key explanatory variables in Tunisia's fertility model are real GDP per capita, infant mortality, contraceptive use ratio, and education. As opposed to most empirical works, the present study takes into consideration three educational levels, i.e., primary, secondary and higher. Also unlike most empirical research, this study attempts to analyse the impact of fertility transition on education and economic growth. To deal with too little or incomplete data, time series data for Tunisia are computed over 45 years. A multivariate cointegration analysis is carried out and shows that a long-term triangular relationship exists. A short dynamic run analysis based on the vector correction error model displays results in coherence with and close to those of the long term. Among our key results, education is found to trigger fertility transition both in the short and long run. In addition, education has relatively fostered economic growth but hardly boosted it through its dynamic interaction with fertility. Furthermore, the variance decomposition and the impulse function show that the fertility transition has produced a feedback effect on both education and economic growth.     

Linkages between income inequality,international remittances and economic growth in Pakistan

This paper explores the dynamic linkages between income inequality, international remittances and economic growth using time series data over the period of 1976–2006 in case of Pakistan. The cointegration analysis based on the bounds test confirms the existence of a long-run relationship between income inequality, international remittances and economic growth. Our results reveal that income inequality and international remittances enhance economic growth. The causality analysis based on innovative accounting approach shows bidirectional causal relationship between income inequality and economic growth and same is true for international remittances and income inequality. International remittances are cause of economic growth but not vice versa. Although we find support for Kuznets hypothesis but Pakistan is yet to benefit, in terms of reducing the gaps of income inequality, from the international flow of remittances and economic growth. The paper argues that, from a policy perspective, there is an urgent need for policy makers in Pakistan to reduce the widening gap of income inequality by focusing on income redistribution policies and to go beyond the traditional factors in balancing income inequality.     

Foreign capital inflows and economic growth of Pakistan

This study investigates the relationship of foreign capital inflows, namely foreign direct investment, workers’ remittances, and external debt with economic growth of Pakistan by employing time series data from 1976 to 2015. Cointegration results indicate that foreign capital inflows and economic growth have a significant relationship with economic growth in the long run. Ordinary least square results indicate foreign direct investment has a significant and negative effect on economic growth, whereas a significant positive effect of remittances and external debts on economic growth is found. Rolling windows analysis highlights the yearly effect of three different models. Two different sensitivity analyses confirmed that initial results are robust. The final section concludes the study and provides some policy implications.     

Demographic volatility and economic growth: convention and beyond

Following the success of endogenous growth theory, recent empirical examinations of the demography–economic growth construct established that components of demographic change can provide meaningful and clear insights into the direction and impact of demographic variation in economic growth. While theoretical justification and empirical support to the claim cannot be denied, confusions seem to have arisen whether an empirical growth construct will only be limited to demographic dynamics or the model can entertain other non-demographic variables. In a leading research, Kelley and Schmidt (1995, 2001) provided seemingly ambiguous evidence that addition of non-demographic variables can add explanatory power to the growth regression. While subsequent empirical growth models have largely followed the convention as in KS, some important considerations like the stochastic effects of demographic system on economic growth seem to be missing. This paper attempts to address the concerns by suggesting a long-memory demographic system and embedding stochastic demographic characteristics in a standard Solow–Swan model, which also forms the basis of convergence pattern. We empirically show that significant stochastic shocks exist in the demographic components which could have contributed to the growth volatility across nations. We suggest that empirical growth models should account for stochastic demographic characteristics to enable economic policy makers with correct information about the current and future state of evolution of the demography–economic system.     

Electricity consumption and economic growth empirical evidence from Pakistan

The present article uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure to identify the long run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. Toda Yamamoto and Wald-test causality tests have identified the direction of the causal relationship between these two variables in the case of Pakistan in the period between 1971 and 2008. Ng-Perron and Clement-Montanes-Reyes unit root tests are used to handle the problem of integrating orders for variables. The results suggest that the two variables are in a long run equilibrium relationship and economic growth leads to electricity consumption and not vice versa.     

Role of tariffs,imports substitution and investment efficiency in economic growth of Pakistan

Quality & Quantity - This paper explores the impact of tariffs, imports substitution and investment efficiency on economic growth in Pakistan. For this purpose, secondary data was collected...     

Theory of social transformation,political transition and economic growth

In this paper, I develop a model of sociopolitical transition that links the sociopolitical transformational process of countries to the dynamic process of output per capita and economic growth. Social polarization breeds discriminatory practices regarding government redistribution. This brings about inefficient allocation of resources away from production to political power struggle, leading to poor economic outcomes. However, the model shows that social integrative processes may correct this inefficiency over time depending on the degree of social fractionalization, the level of social distance between the groups, the level of production technology, etc. Even though the model predicts long-run convergence of growth rates and output per capita across countries, it shows possible prolonged divergence of these economic variables.     

Agricultural exports and economic growth in Pakistan: an econometric reassessment

Agriculture sector works as backbone of Pakistan economy. In this modern era, exports work as locomotive of growth train. Pakistan earned a handsome amount through exports of agricultural raw material and refined products. This research investigates that either there is unidirectional or bidirectional association between agricultural exports and economic growth in Pakistan? For empirical investigation of relationships between economic growth and agricultural exports in Pakistan this study used most reliable econometric estimation tools, augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test, Johansen co-integration and Engle–Granger causality tests for 45 time series annul observations from 1970 to 2014. This research winds up that Pakistan’s agricultural exports have positive but insignificant association with gross domestic product growth. It is due to the primary and raw material agricultural products exports which cannot compete in international markets due to close competitions, lower quality and dearer price. Consequently, receive a trifling amount as exports earnings; contribute slightly in national economic growth.     

Intra-provincial inequalities and economic growth in China

This paper approaches the problem of inequalities in China. It is specifically focused on analyzing the effects of intra-provincial disparities on the development of the 28 mainland provinces in China. Intra-provincial inequalities, as measured by the Theil index, seem positively related to growth, albeit the results are only convincing for the coastal provinces. A case-by-case analysis, however, suggests highly diversified patterns, including linear or an inverted U-shape for the fastest growing coastal provinces and virtually no relationship for the majority of regions. The results corroborate some questions raised earlier about actual policy-making standards in China.     

A cointegration approach to modeling human capital formation,self-employment,and economic growth: evidence from Pakistan

This study aims to empirically investigate the dynamics of relationship among human capital formation, self-employment (SE), and economic growth in Pakistan. Using quarterly data of primary school enrollment, SE, and GDP per capita, we employed ARDL bound testing approach to cointegration covering the time span of 1995–2010. We found that in the long run, primary school enrollment, high school enrollment and SE have significant impact on economic growth. Enrollment in primary schools (EP) has a strong positive and significant impact on economic growth, whereas enrollment in high school has a relatively small positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run in Pakistan. Further, SE has a small, positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run. In short run, enrollments in high schools and SE have weak positive impact on economic growth whereas, EP has a strong positive and significant impact on economic growth in Pakistan. Further it is found that that there is unidirectional long run causality from self employment to economic growth followed by the bidirectional short run causality between economic growth and high school enrollment, GDP per capita and primary school enrollment, high school enrollment and primary school enrollment.     

Long term effect of trade openness on economic growth in case of Pakistan

The present empirical work aims to investigate the long term effect of trade openness on economic growth in the case of Pakistan from 1971 to 2009. A composite trade openness index is developed by using principal component analysis (PCA) and is employed in the JJ cointegration, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, dynamic OLS and variance decomposition. The results suggest the existence of a negative and significant association between trade openness and economic growth. But new evidence provided by this study is that there is a strong complementary between human capital and trade openness index in terms of enhancing the real GDP.     

Individual new energy consumption and economic growth in China

We document the one-way relationship between individual new energy consumption and economic growth in China through the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model from 2004 to 2017. Our results show that individual new energy consumption has a positive effect on economic growth. Moreover, the urbanization rate, import and export trade volume and foreign direct investment all affect the individual new energy consumption in the short run. The outcome of the causality test reveals a one-way Granger causal relationship from individual new energy consumption to economic growth, from the urbanization rate, and from the import and export trade volume to new energy consumption.     

Comparisons of agricultural productivity growth in China and India

We measure and compare agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) growth and its components (efficiency and technical change) in China and India and test the TFP series for the existence of structural breaks relating the evolution of TFP to policy milestones. Our results show that agricultural TFP growth accelerates in China after 1979 and in India after 1974, although China’s agricultural sector clearly outperforms India’s. The main explanation of these differentials is that agricultural growth in China benefited from more fundamental institutional and policy reforms in agriculture than India. There is some evidence that the transformation of industry in China was also important for agricultural TFP growth. Manufacture growth absorbed labor and reduced employment in agriculture, creating incentives for capital investment and technical change that kept output per worker in agriculture growing at high rates. Fewer changes in agricultural policies and in the dynamics of manufacturing in India resulted in slower growth in agricultural productivity, despite policy changes that accelerated economic growth in recent years.     

Household survey data, econometrics and economic transition

This paper explores some of the possible uses of household survey data for the analysis of the process of economic transition. It is argued that such data are particularly valuable for work on the distributional effects of transition, using simulation techniques of various kinds. Some examples are given, focusing on: labour supply; indirect taxation; and the cost and effectiveness of the Hungarian personal income tax and social security systems under alternative assumptions about changes in the distribution of gross earnings and the level and incidence of unemployment.     

Demographic change and implications for planning economic strategy

The growth of population and jobs in nonmetropolitan areas and the decline in growth of metropolitan areas during the previous decade represented a significant reversal in previous settlement patterns in the industrial world. This paper examines the importance of economic and demographic change in explaining recent spatial patterns of concentration and deconcentration within a system's framework, and suggests implications for strategic economic and planning policies. The central hypothesis of this paper is that the nature of these interrelationships determine in large part the dynamics of change within metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas and makes possible a comprehensive view of the implications, for spatial redistribution, of planning policies and strategies.     

Federalism,taxation, and economic growth

We present a model of endogenous growth where government provides a productive public good financed by income and capital taxes. In equilibrium, a decentralized government chooses tax policy to maximize economic growth, while a centralized government does not do so. Furthermore, these conclusions hold regardless of whether governments are beholden to a median voter or are rent-maximizing Leviathans. However, a decentralized government will under-provide public goods which benefit citizens directly, while a central government beholden to the median voter will optimally invest in such public goods.     

Entrepreneurship,innovation and economic growth

The linkages among entrepreneurship, creativity, innovation and economic growth are only vaguely understood presently. This paper is an attempt to improve that understanding. The first step in establishing the linkages requires the formulation of knowledge about the psychological make-up of entrepreneurs. These questions are pertinent: What motivates humans to become entrepreneurs? Are entrepreneurs “rational economic men”? How important are monetary rewards to entrepreneurial creativity ? The second step requires information about how the human brain functions. The brain is bi-hemispheric and both sides of the brain play an important role in human decision-making. Nevertheless, we have a cultural bias in favor of the functions performed by the brain's left side. The third step requires an understanding of the process of creation and innovation. Several stages in this process have been identified. The stages of preparation, incubation, and illumination involve the brain's right hemisphere while the verification stage involves the left hemisphere. The final step integrates the first three. We assume that entrepreneurship is an essential determinant of economic growth, that the entrepreneurial function involves creation and innovation, and that entrepreneurship can be taught. This article is intended to provoke thinking and research incorporating new insights from several disciplines. These insights appear to bear more on entrepreneurship than is generally acknowledged.     

经济增长、环境因素与我国经济发展方式转变

随着人们对经济发展内涵的认识不断深入,经济增长与环境之间的关系越来越受到关注和重视。研究发现,经济增长与环境之间存在着＂倒U＂型关系,即经济增长导致环境恶化,且在经济增长到一定水平时出现拐点,环境得到改善。认识并运用这一发现对当前我国调整产业政策,发展节能环保产业,加快经济增长方式转变,实现经济增长与环境改善共赢,具有重要意义。