Economic uncertainty,monetary uncertainty and the Korean demand for money

Economic uncertainty and monetary uncertainty are said to affect public’s holding of money in either direction. In this paper, we consider the Korean demand for money, and after including two GARCH-based measures of output uncertainty and monetary uncertainty, we show that both measures exert significant effects on the demand for money in Korea in the short run. However, only the adverse effects of output uncertainty lasts into the long run. Indeed, including the two uncertainty measures yield a stable demand for money in Korea.     

Labor theory of value and the uncertainty in capitalist economy

This article aims to offer a reply to Steedman’s critique of Marx’s labor theory of value. Although this critique having been there for about three decades, the anti-critiques from Marxists are up to date flawed with fatal limitation, losing sight of an important dimension of labor theory of value, i.e., without taking it as a theoretical tool of understanding the uncertainty rooted in capitalist mode of production. The first part of this article reviews the controversy initiated by Steedman. Part 2 discusses Marx’s dual theory of market value and Rubin’s interpretation. Our view is that, if Rubin’s interpretation is accepted, a refutation of Steedman’s critique towards Marx will be impossible. Part 3 of this article explores the possible reconstruction of market value in the perspective of the dynamics in the pivoting of market value. We concludes that, the relationship between the standard condition of production and value is not, as argued by Steedman, of deterministic and one-directional character. For Marx, labor theory of value is applied to analyze the uncertain relation between the means and the end, the condition and the result of capitalist production. Meanwhile, another reply is attempted towards the negative comment on labor theory of value made by contemporary evolutionary economist such as Hodgson. In our view, Marx’s labor theory of value is not irrelevant as claimed by Hodgson to the main topics of evolutionary economics such as variety and “natural selection.” It is through labor theory of value that Marx explains the co-evolution of technology and economy.     

Economic policy uncertainty and demand for money in Australia

The demand for money has received a great deal of attention in the empirical literature. This literature, however, has emphasized factors such as interest rate, income, inflation rate and exchange rate as the primary determinants of money demand. Although an emerging strand of literature examines uncertainty as a potential determinant of money demand, findings have been mixed. Using a news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index and Australian quarterly data from 1998 to 2017, we study the impact of policy uncertainty on demand for money. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) results show that the economic policy uncertainty measure has a negative short-run effect on the demand for money, suggesting the wider public hedge against future expected inflation, and positive long-run effect, whereby the broader public hold more cash to stay liquid during times of economic uncertainty. Also, introducing nonlinearity into the money demand equation, we find an asymmetric effect, more in favour of currency appreciations, supporting the expectations effect of further appreciations in exchange rate movements.     

The impact of economic and monetary uncertainty on the demand for money in emerging economies

By introducing uncertainty, monetary volatility and economic volatility are said to make the public cautious, hence increase their cash holdings or their demand for money. On the other hand, because of monetary and economic uncertainty if the public seek safer assets than money, they may hold less cash. In the absence of any paper testing for the impact of economic and monetary uncertainty on the demand for money in emerging economies, this article fills the gap by considering the experiences of six Central and Eastern European emerging economies and four other emerging economies. We found that the impact is transitory in most countries. Moreover, money demand is found correctly specified and stable in most countries, suggesting that policy based on monetary targeting could still be effective despite significant output and monetary uncertainty.     

Testing the uncertainty outcome hypothesis using data from second tier soccer in Ireland

This study estimates a demand relationship for second tier soccer in Ireland to test the uncertainty outcome hypothesis (UOH). Using data from three recent playing seasons, the UOH is found to be upheld. In addition, well-determined effects for fixture quality, recent team performance and travel distance between the competing teams’ stadia are also obtained.     

Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Korea: An Asymmetry Analysis

Previous studies included money supply volatility as well as output volatility as measures of uncertainty in estimating the demand for money. However, a more comprehensive measure of uncertainty is now constructed for many countries and is known as policy uncertainty. When we included this new measure in the formulation of the demand for money in Korea and relied upon a nonlinear specification of the money demand which allows us to assess the asymmetric effects of changes in the policy uncertainty measure, we found asymmetric long-run effects of policy uncertainty on the demand for cash in Korea. Our conjecture is that increased uncertainty induces Koreans to hold less cash in favor of safer assets and decreased uncertainty has opposite effects, though at different rate.     

论农村金融供给与需求的错位

从当前农村金融的供需现状看,中国的“三农”资金需求依然无法得到满足,农村金融供求严重失衡。而这种失衡在中国农村更多地表现为金融供给与金融需求错位。     

Macroeconomic Uncertainty,Fund Demand and Corporate Investment

Using a unique set of data on fund use by China’s listed companies, this paper examines how macroeconomic uncertainty works on corporate investment. The study shows that macroeconomic uncertainty affects corporate investment behavior through the three channels of external demand, liquidity demand and long-term fund demand. However, the result is influenced by expectations and can differ across firms depending on their economic cycle, shareholder character, industrial character and the financial constraints they are exposed to. Specifically, high macroeconomic uncertainty can weaken the positive roles of these channels, especially those of external demand and liquidity demand, in driving corporate investment. During economic upturns, the effect of these channels is the most evident among state-owned firms, manufacturing firms and low cash dividend firms. The lessons from this study are that macroeconomic policies should be leveraged taking account of the channels through which economic shocks find their way, and monetary policies have to be implemented by targeting microscopic fund demand.     

Policy Adoption Rules and Global Warming

Although there is widespread agreement about the dangers of global warming and the resulting need to cut down emissions, there does not seem to be general agreement about the exact form the policy should take or the timing of its adoption. Failure to adopt and implement policies against global warming reflects the complexity of the problem, the uncertainties of climate change and the cost of policy adoption. Issues associated with the interactions between uncertainties and irreversibilities in determining the timing of policy adoption are analyzed by using the methodology of optimal stopping rules. Optimal policy functions are derived for cooperative and noncooperative solutions, with differential game representation. Issues associated with the empirical application of the optimal policy rules are also considered.     

Location decisions: The role of uncertainty about consumer tastes

This paper analyzes to what extent firms make decisions about location based on uncertainty about consumer tastes. The model used in this analysis incorporates a linear city and quadratic consumer-transportation costs. In this framework, when firms choose locations, or in other words, choose the kind of product they are going to manufacture, they ignore the location, or real tastes, of their consumers. The existence of uncertainty raises the degree of product differentiation, because the anti-competitive effect that arises as distance from rivals increases counteracts the reduction in the degree of differentiation provided by the demand effect.     

Demand disruption and coordination of supply chain via effort and revenue sharing

This article explores the equilibrium behaviour of a basic supplier–retailer distribution channel under demand disruption via effort and revenue sharing contract. This differs from the traditional supply chain coordination model. Firstly, demand is simultaneously affected by retail price and nonprice marketing effort from manufacturers and retailers. Secondly, when the demand is disrupted, this article considers disruptions in the market scale and price sensitivity coefficient. Thirdly, the supply chain coordination model is proposed via effort and revenue sharing contract. In this way, the manufacturer reduces the wholesale price as an incentive for the retailer to share revenue. Finally, the total supply chain profit is greater with contract than no contract. This also constitutes another incentive for the players to follow the effort and revenue sharing contract.     

Game Outcome Uncertainty and Television Audience Demand: New Evidence from German Football

Despite its prominence in the economic literature, our knowledge regarding the role of game outcome uncertainty (GOU) in spectator decision‐making is fairly limited. Even worse, studies testing the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH) by exploring TV demand for European football have further intensified the original ambiguity. In this paper, we revisit the role of GOU in spectator decision‐making by testing the UOH with regard to two different sporting products: (1) domestic league and (2) knockout tournament games. Analyzing TV demand for almost 1,500 German football games, we find support for the UOH in league, though not in knockout tournament games.     

The impacts of investor sentiment and price uncertainty on the effects of open-market share repurchase announcements

This study probes into relationship between investor sentiment and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) of share repurchase announcements, and it treats market return as threshold variable. By threshold regression model, it tries to find the effect of market situations on relation between investor sentiment and CAR. According to empirical result, in share market of Taiwan, investor sentiment can explain CAR. When share market is extremely pessimistic (market return lower than ?16.0053%), relation between investor sentiment and CAR will change to some degree. In addition, relation between price risk of announcement company and CAR will disappear with the extremely pessimistic situation of market.     

An assessment of the empirical magnitude of option values for environment goods

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the magnitude of option values relative to expected surplus using a model presented by Larson and Flacco (1992). Option values and option prices are computed for both simulated data sets and actual estimates of recreation demands. Results indicate that option values engendered by price and income uncertainty are generally quite a small percent of expected surplus.     

需求不确定性下供应商回收未售商品对季节性商品采购的影响

分析需求不确定性条件下,供应商回收零售商未售商品策略对零售商季节性商品采购量的影响,通过数学模型分别对不同需求状态和不同回收价情况下零售商最优采购量进行仿真,说明随着需求不确定性程度的增加,零售商商品的采购数量增加而期望利润下降;供应商通过优化批发价和回收价组合可以增加零售商在相同需求状态时的采购量,提高供应商的期望利润。     

大豆需求与全球资源的优化配置

供求决定价格,价格又反过来影响供求平衡.一方面,中国对大豆的进口需求是导致国际价格不断上涨的主要原因;另一方面,中国水产品出口价格的下降又刺激了美、日、韩等国对我国大虾消费的需求.大豆豆粕是大虾饲料的主要成分,欧美水产品的消费间接拉动了我国大豆的进口.除此,由于大豆属土地密集型农产品,利润率较低,在耕地资源短缺的条件下,我国应该生产那些劳动力密集、单位产量较高的农作物或收益较好的经济作物,进口土地密集型农作物.因此.进口大豆,出口大虾,符合全球资源的优化配置原则.     

Vertically integrated producer when a rival is also a customer: impact of demand uncertainty

When a vertically integrated producer (VIP) is also a supplier of a component for its rival firm, it was found that the profit in a decentralized structure is higher for the VIP than the profit in a centralized structure under deterministic demand. In contrast, we found that firms’ ordering decisions under uncertain demand can reverse this findings and it is more likely to happen as demand variability increases.     

Nonresponse in Contingent Valuation-reducing uncertainty in value inference

This paper focuses on problems associated with nonresponse in Contingent Valuation surveys. The results from a telephone follow-up survey show that value inference can be considerably improved by information on nonrespondents' attitudes.     

货币需求弹性决定因素的实证研究

文章从企业和家庭层面的货币需求异质性,对传统货币需求函数进行修正,分析货币需求收入弹性和利率弹性的决定因素。实证结果表明,产业结构和经济开放度不但直接影响货币需求规模,而且通过货币需求弹性间接影响货币需求的变化,产业结构主要对货币需求收入弹性显著影响,而经济开放度对货币需求收入弹性和利率弹性均有显著影响。产业结构升级将弱化对货币需求收入弹性的影响,而加剧对货币需求规模的影响。经济开放度对货币需求的影响将逐渐由正转负,并最终导致货币需求下降。     

The choice between multiplicative and additive production uncertainty

When modeling output uncertainty, the multiplicative specification is consistently chosen over the additive form, despite the latter being arguably intuitively more obvious. The rationale for this seems to be that when production risk is the only source of uncertainty, additive uncertainty does not reduce output below the certainty level, while multiplicative uncertainty does. We show that, in the absence of hedging, this result is drastically modified when there is simultaneous price and output uncertainty. In this situation the theoretical implications of the two specifications are sufficiently similar to preclude any a priori choice between the two. Thus the choice between the additive and multiplicative formulations may be dictated by how each performs in empirical analyses.