Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics

This study utilizes both disaggregated data and macroeconomic indicators in order to examine the importance of the macroeconomic environment of origin countries for analysing destinations’ tourist arrivals. In particular, it is the first study to present strong empirical evidence that both of these features in tandem provide statistically significant information of tourist arrivals in Greece. The forecasting exercises presented in our analysis show that macroeconomic indicators conducive to better forecasts are mainly origin country-specific, thus highlighting the importance of considering the apparent sharp national contrasts among origin countries when investigating domestic tourist arrivals. Given the extent of the dependency of the Greek economy on tourism income and also the perishable nature of the tourist product itself, results have important implications for policymakers in Greece.     

The impact of German-speaking online media on tourist arrivals in popular tourist destinations for Europeans

This empirical study analyzes the relationship between the sentiments in online media with regard to travel destinations and corresponding tourist arrivals. We expect the media reports on political and economic instability and turmoil to enhance tourist arrival nowcasts and forecasts, as they can probably complement them with information on disruptions and shocks. Therefore, we believe this research will help to build better models for tourism demand nowcasting and forecasting. We use the sentiment in the German-speaking online media because the German-speaking region is the most populated in Europe and has the largest group of travelers visiting destinations in and around Europe.

An artificial neural network is used to analyze the mood of the media. The software classifies news items regarding potential tourist destinations with either positive or negative labels. The number of positive and negative news items is used to build sentiment indices for popular tourist destinations for Europeans.

Our results show strong correlations between the mood concerning tourist destinations and tourist arrivals in these countries. Indeed, disruptions and shocks prevalent in the news are reflected in similar ratios in both tourist arrivals and sentiment indices. These results can be used as a new explanatory variable for tourism demand modelling.     

Modelling the domestic and foreign tourist arrivals to Tamil Nadu (India)

In recent years, due to the Indian Federal Government's and Tamil Nadu State Government's various initiatives and promotional activities, foreign and domestic tourist arrivals in Tamil Nadu are on the increase. This article aims to model the monthly tourist arrivals (foreign as well as domestic) in Tamil Nadu for monthly time series data during the period 1998 to 2002 using univariate time-series models. As both time series show strong seasonal patterns, we also investigate the possibility of seasonal unit roots in the domestic and foreign tourist arrivals series. The results show that significant growth in domestic and foreign arrivals takes place during the months December to January. Growth rate for domestic tourist arrivals is positive during April and May, but is negative for the foreign tourist arrivals during April and insignificant during May. Such information would be very useful to the Tamil Nadu government and the tourism industry in maximizing the usage of available tourist spot infrastructure and to provide high quality service.     

Investigating stationarity in tourist arrivals to India using panel KPSS with sharp drifts and smooth breaks

In the study, we applied panel-based stationary test that incorporates sharp as well as smooth breaks to investigate the non-stationarity of long-run tourists’ arrivals to India from major tourists’ source countries for the period 1981–2012. Results from the overall panel data provided significant evidence to support the stationarity hypothesis. However, when tourist arrivals from major source countries are considered, results indicate that tourist arrivals in India from the UK, Canada, Australia, Singapore, and Nepal were non-stationary, suggesting that tourists from these countries are all affected by economic conditions with the greatest extent. The results of the study have important policy implication for the tourist authority of India as well as business sectors in the hospitality industry for understanding and predicting market condition.     

Batch queues with choice of arrivals: Equilibrium analysis and experimental study

We study the decisions agents make in two queueing games with endogenously determined arrivals and batch service. In both games, agents are asked to independently decide when to join a queue, or they may simply choose not to join it at all. The symmetric mixed-strategy equilibrium of two games in discrete time where balking is prohibited and where it is allowed are tested experimentally in a study that varies the game type (balking vs. no balking) and information structure (private vs. public information). With repeated iterations of the stage game, all four experimental conditions result in aggregate, but not individual, behavior approaching mixed-strategy equilibrium play. Individual behavior can be accounted for by relatively simple heuristics.     

An Analysis of Occupational Outcomes for Indigenous and Asian Employees in Australia

This paper examines occupational performance in Australia across three racial groups in Australia: Indigenous Australians; Asian people, defined as all those whose language spoken at home was either Chinese, Vietnamese or other forms of a South-east or East Asian language; and white people, defined as the residual category. The paper has as its starting point, observed differences in occupational attainment among the three groups in Australia and sets out to account for these observed differences on the basis of both race and non-racial attributes such as, age, education and area of residence.     

现代旅游业的发展战略

环境旅游业是发展旅游业的重要战略之一。发展现代旅游业就必需突破过去“就资源论开发”的传统思想误区，但还需具备一定的基本条件。因此应该因地制宜地采取相应的发展战略。在实际操作过程中，还应该注意可持续发展、投资负担以及市场营销等方面的问题。     

A limited-dependent analysis of the choice of regular labour contract in seasonal agriculture

The paper examines both theoretically and empirically the factors determining the demand for regular labour in seasonal agriculture. In an implicit contract framework it is argued that there are ‘hoarding costs’ of regular labour in the slack period when there is not much work to be done. Consequently, the number of regular labour employed is constrained by the hoarding cost where larger employment-intensive farms tend to hire more regular labour. Evidence from the ICRISAT villages in India, too, show that though the marginal costs of regular labour are zero, there are significant hoarding costs of regular labour among small farms so that larger farmers are the major demanders of regular labour. Estimates of the double-hurdle model jointly determining the probability of hiring regular labour and demand for regular labour-hours (if a regular labour is hired) are shown to be an improvement over univariate tobit estimates of the demand for regular labour-hours only.     

The Asian crisis and flow-of-funds analysis

This paper is an application of Flow-of-Funds analysis to the case of Thailand during the 1996–97 Asian crisis. It begins with a background historical sketch of the financial crisis in East Asia, emphasizing the central role of weak financial systems and foreign debt. The paper then presents a method of estimating quarterly Flow-of-Funds accounts using Thailand as an example. This simple method is available from data published by the I.M.F. for most of the countries of the world. The Thai data are then used in a Flow-of-Funds analysis of the crisis in Thailand. This analysis contrasts with the opening historical sketch in quantitatively tracing the significant financial flows and, particularly, the finances of the private sector. The paper closes by emphasizing the need for current reporting of data to facilitate such analyses.     

An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis of financial crowding out: A policy model and an application to Australia

This paper constructs a two-period, perfect foresight general equilibrium model that analyzes crowding out. Private investment is debt financed, while government deficits are financed by money and debt. The existence of equilibrium is demonstrated and the model is applied to Australia for 1981–1982, the last years for which Australia had a fixed exchange rate. A benchmark solution is derived and two counterfactual simulations are carried out. Small increases in real government spending are found not to lead to crowding out, while an increase in the debt financed portion of the government's budget deficit does lead to crowding out.     

Economic Valuation of the Threat Posed by the Establishment of the Asian Tiger Mosquito in Australia

Invasive species policy could be better informed if we understood how much people value reductions in the risks posed by these organisms. This study investigates the public’s willingness to pay (WTP) for additional measures to reduce the risk of invasion of the Australian mainland by the Asian tiger mosquito (ATM). The study contributes to the literature by applying a stated preference method to estimate the public’s WTP to reduce the risk of an ATM invasion, expressed as a change in probability. It is the first ex ante invasive species analysis to test over two discrete invasion reduction probabilities based on management effort. Further, to overcome the challenges in valuing changes in probabilities, the study presented respondents with a well-defined discrete difference in the final probability, with one scenario reducing risk from 50 to 25% and the other from 50 to 5%. We find a significant difference in the mean WTP values between these two scenarios (A$67 vs. A$90). The overall conclusion is that estimated benefits of reducing the probability of an ATM incursion outweigh the costs.     

Reservation wage analysis of unemployed youths in Australia

This paper focuses on the analysis and structural estimation of the reservation wage function from a job search model using modified 2SLS and maximum-likelihood procedures with selectivity bias adjustments. The existing structural approaches to estimation are also reviewed. Empirical estimates of the determinants of the reservation wages of unemployed youths in Australia are obtained using data from the Australian National Longitudinal Survey. The results support most of the predictions of the job search model and indicate the presence of positive duration dependence in unemployment. These findings differ from the populaly held view of declining probability of escape from unemployment as its duration increases. There is also evidence which suggests that quantity constraints are important in determining unemployment in Australia.     

高速公路网建设对旅游景点可达性影响实证分析

当前大力倡导旅游产业的发展,旅游景点的可达性成为旅游产业发展的关键因素。高速公路作为旅游交通系统的重要组成部分,对旅游空间结构的影响至关重要。运用定量方法对旅游景点的可达性进行计算,分析高速公路网建设对旅游空间结构的影响。以黑龙江省公路网建设对省内旅游景点可达性进行了实证研究。研究对比了黑龙江省2008—2011年＂三年决战公路建设＂项目前后,高速公路网建设对旅游景点可达性的影响。     

A seasonal fractional multivariate model. A testing procedure and impulse responses for the analysis of GDP and unemployment dynamics

This paper deals with the analysis of seasonally, fractionally integrated, multivariate models. We present a procedure that permits us to test the seasonal fractional differencing parameters from the reduced-form system, which allows us to recover the parameters of the structural model through simple restrictions as in the standard VAR case with the additional incorporation of seasonality and fractional integration. An empirical application based on a bivariate system using GDP and unemployment in the UK, USA and Japan is also carried out at the end of the paper.     

Economic growth and financial development in Asian countries: A bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis

This study using Kónya (2006) [Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling 23, 978–992.] method of bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis, which considers the issues of cross-sectional dependency and slope heterogeneity among countries investigated simultaneously, analyzes the causality between financial development and economic growth among ten Asian countries surveyed during period 1980 to 2007. We find that the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth is sensitive to the financial development variables used in the ten Asian countries examined in this work. Moreover, our findings support the supply-leading hypothesis, as many financial development variables lead economic growth in some of the ten Asian countries surveyed, especially in China.     

Using the concept of yield to assess the sustainability of different tourist types

Sustainability assessments have become important tools for decision makers. This research assesses the sustainability of different types of tourists in New Zealand by using the concept of yield and by developing yield indicators in the areas of financial, public sector and sustainable yield. The concept and indicators have been developed in cooperation with the New Zealand tourism sector and therefore provide a sector-driven approach to implement a sustainability assessment. The analysis shows that there are numerous ‘trade-offs’ between indicators when attempting to define the ‘ideal visitor type’. Coach tourists, for example, are the largest spenders and generate the greatest Value Added in tourism on a per-day basis, but they contribute less to the financial sustainability of tourism when the costs of capital are accounted for. Coach tourists are highly concentrated in a few key destinations and at the same time produce substantial amounts of CO₂ emissions due to their air travel component. In contrast, backpacker and camping tourists provide greater financial yield and are more dispersed, but they are also the greatest user of publicly provided tourist attractions and therefore come at a higher cost to government than other tourist types. Camping tourists are also contributing considerably to CO₂ emissions. The yield analysis proposed in this paper could be a valuable tool for complex policy decision making and identifying strategies that lead to high-yield tourism.