The demand for alcohol in the United Kingdom

Using the AIDS model, we show that there exists for the UK a stable long-run relationship between expenditure shares on beer, cider, spirits and wine, alcohol prices, total alcohol expenditure and a range of non-economic variables relating to advertising, licensing, the employment, social class and demographic characteristics of consumers, and climate. Our estimates of key price and income elasticities generally lie between those found from other time-series studies (which exclude most of these non-economic variables) and those found from cross-section studies (which generally include them). However, the restrictions required for separability, homegeneity and symmetry (although not those for perfect price aggregation) are decisively rejected.     

Estimation of an effectively globally regular demand system: An application to United States meat consumption

A combination of Cooper and McLaren's modified almost ideal demand system (AIDS) and Moschini's semiflexible AIDS specification gives an effective globally regular demand system. Using the United States meat price and consumption data, the effectively globally regular demand system was estimated and compared to Cooper and McLaren's modified AIDS. The Likelihood Dominance Criterion showed that Cooper and McLaren's modified AIDS was actually better model than the effectively globally regular demand system proposed. The reason may be due to the fact that the violation of the curvature conditions is not significant for the given data. First Version Received: September 1998/Final Version Received: April 2001     

The demand for money in an open economy: the United Kingdom

Most previous studies have estimated the demand for money without paying too much attention to developments in the foreign exchange markets. In light of the fact that any development abroad and in the foreign exchange markets could have implications for domestic stabilization, we make an attempt to incorporate such developments into the demand for money in the United Kingdom. More precisely, after incorporating a measure of real effective exchange rate of the British Pound into a dynamic money demand function, we estimated it for the UK using quarterly data over 1973–87 period. By relying upon the Akaike' Final Prediction Error criteria to select the optimum number of lags, it is shown that in addition to income and interest rate, the real effective exchange rate exerts significant effect on the UK demand for money in the short run as well as long run.     

Wage led aggregate demand in the United Kingdom

The wage led aggregate demand hypothesis is examined for the United Kingdom over the period 1971–2007. Existing studies disagree on the aggregate demand regime for the UK, and this appears to be due to differing empirical approaches. Studies relying on equation-by-equation estimation procedures tend to find support for wage led aggregate demand in the UK, while the single study using a multiple time series estimation procedure finds no support for the hypothesis. We test the wage led aggregate demand hypothesis in the UK using VAR models estimated on quarterly data employing an alternative identification strategy based on shocks to real earnings. The results provide support for the wage led aggregate demand hypothesis during the period of study. However, the expansionary effects of higher earnings seem to be limited and relatively short-lived.     

Explanations of the demand for labour in the United Kingdom engineering sector

This paper presents a set of employment functions for nine individual engineering industries using annual data for the period 1954–1987 for the United Kingdom. A brief review alternative theoretical specifications is undertaken. A set of co-integrating regressions is computed to establish the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between employment and inter aliaoutput and real wages. Based on the results of the co-integration exercise, full unrestricted dynamic equations are obtained and these are then reduced to a more parsimonious representation. The finally preferred restricted models are then tested against a number of diagnostic statistical criteria to establish their robust and efficient properties. The value of these equations for explaining past and predicting future employment and training in the engineering sector is assessed.     

Meeting the demand: An estimation of potential future greenhouse gas emissions from meat production

Current production processes for meat products have been shown to have a significant impact on the environment, accounting for between 15% and 24% of current greenhouse gas emissions. Meat consumption has been increasing at a fantastic rate and is likely to continue to do so into the future. If this demand is to be met, technology used in production in the form of Confined Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) will need to be expanded. This paper estimates future meat consumption and discusses the potential aggregate environmental impact of this production if the use of CAFOs is expanded. I first separate meat into beef, chicken and pig products and estimate the elasticities associated with each product in order to forecast the world demand for meat. Using research on the environmental impact of food production in the US, which uses one of the most efficient CAFO processes in the world, I then calculate the total potential greenhouse emissions of this meat production and discuss the impact of these consumption patterns. I find that, under an expanded CAFO system, meat production in the future will still be a large producer of greenhouse gases, accounting for up to 6.3% of current greenhouse gas emissions in 2030.     

Price determination and dynamic adjustments: An inverse demand system approach to meat products in the United States

In this study the process of retail meat price determination is depicted in the form of an inverse demand system taking into consideration the dynamic adjustments present in monthly consumption data. The general dynamic framework identifies both long run and short run effects in a systematic manner and allows direct estimation of the long run price and scale flexibilities that are consistent with theory. The empirical application based on monthly U.S. meat products data provides reasonable and promising results.The authors are senior econometrician, Department of Risk Management, TRS, American Express Co., Phoenix, and assistant professor, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, respectively. The work was performed when the first author was an assistant research scientist at the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Department of Economics, Iowa State University, Ames. Journal Paper No. J-15784 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 3109.     

Generalized functional forms and demand for money in an open economy: the case of the United Kingdom

The purpose of this paper are twofold:first, to apply a Box–Cox model to the UK money demand relationship within an open economy framework in order to empirically investigate the proper functional form supported by the data in this general setting. Secondly, to test for the porper scale variable in the UK money demand function within the open economy Box–Cox specification. These improvements enhance the accuracy of our measures of monetary and fiscal policy effects and our understanding of the interdependence between different economies. The empirical results derived here reject the restrictive linear and log specifications in favour of the general Box–Cox model under both income and consumption-based money demand specifications. The traditional income-based model, however,escaps unharmed from the challenge put forward by Mankiw and Summers (1986).     

Determinants of demand for green products: An application to eco-label demand for fish in Europe

In this paper, we confront the theoretical motivations of the consumption of eco-friendly products and the factors influencing the European perceptions regarding the fact that “fish caught using an environmentally friendly technique may carry a special label”. We take advantage of the recent integration of non-economic elements in the microeconomic analysis of consumers' behavior in order to highlight the factors leading to their demand for green products. Thanks to an original European survey on seafood product carried out on more than 5000 consumers, we test the influence of intrinsic motivation, information, localization and socio-economic factors on the demand for an eco-label for fish.Our results show a significant connection between the desire for eco-labeling and seafood features, especially the freshness of the fish, the geographical origin of the fish and the wild vs farmed origin of the fish. Moreover, we prove the major role played by the fish price. We also demonstrate that the ecological issue regarding fisheries is highly connected to consumer information, intrinsic motivation and socio-economic status: the typical “green fish consumer” is a young woman, well educated, well informed on the state of marine resources and not very trusting of the regulation of the fisheries. Consumers who are aware of the importance of marine resource preservation have the same profile.     

An estimation of the future demand for portable Internet service in Korea

Portable Internet service (PIS), which refers to wireless Internet service that can be accessed via a portable terminal at every time and at any place, is scheduled to be launched in Korea in early 2006. Thus, both the government and the industry need to obtain quantitative information on the future demand for the service. This study attempts to estimate future demand for the PIS, to analyze the determinants of the demand, and to conduct pre-test-market evaluation of the service. To this end, the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method is employed. On the whole, respondents accepted the contingent market and were willing to contribute a significant amount, on average. This willingness varies according to individual characteristics. Finally, the study discusses the importance of including valuation method in a pre-test-market evaluation of the PIS and presents the implications of the results, such as the mean willingness to pay (WTP) and the effects of individual characteristics and concerns about the service on the WTP.     

Higher education in the USSR: An economic comparison with the United Kingdom

The Soviet system of higher education is more specialized than that of the United Kingdom, both in the sense that teaching is separated from research and in the sense that institutions specialize in certain fields. The paper compares, in the light of this difference, the costs of higher education and the qualities of students in the two countries. Also, the social rate of return to higher education in the USSR is examined. The main tentative findings are that the Soviet system is not cheaper; that the “quality” of students is, on the average, lower; and that the social rate of return is close to that of tangible capital. J. Comp. Econ., March 1978, 2(1), pp. 13–23. Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel.     

Modeling quality demand with data from Household Budget Surveys: An application to meat and fish products in Greece

In this paper, we employ a method to examine the factors affecting quality choice by Greek households, using cross-sectional survey data. We illustrate the method using the raw data of the 2004/05 Household Budget Survey for meat and fish products. Quality elasticities of total food expenditure and household's age structure are derived. To cope with the zero expenditure problem, Heckman's two-step method is employed. Results generally suggest that several socio-economic factors affect quality demand for meat and fish.     

An econometric analysis of choice of mortgage design in the United Kingdom

The research seks to better understand the choice of mortgage design by households in the United Kingdom. Family Expenditures Survey data is used to test the various hypotheses on the determinants of the choice between an endowment and a repayment mortgage. A bivariate probit model with sample selection is estimated to detect any likely selectivity bias arising out of tenure choice. The theoretical modelling reflects the behaviour of liquidity constrained households comparing comparative periodic mortgage costs and households concerned with the oppurtunity cost of equity in a property. Actual choices appear to reflect the impact of nominal interest rates, income and cash flow considerations. There is little direct evidence that the choice of mortgage repayment vehicle is motivated by portfolio design. There is some tentative evidence of supply side pressure on endowment mortgage take up.     

Consumer behaviour in India: An application of the Rotterdam demand system

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the extent to which the observed data support the postulates of neoclassical theory of consumer behaviour. The absolute price version of the Rotterdam model has been estimated for rural and urban areas of India separately. The results indicate a trade off between theoretical consistency and goodness of fit. The symmetry, but not homogeneity, conditions are found to be empirically valid in rural India. All the other hypotheses are rejected both in rural and urban areas of India. Frequent violation of convexity conditions is also observed. The estimated marginal budget shares, income and price elasticities show marked differences in consumption patterns of rural and urban consumers in India. The effect of foodgrains price rise on the demand for various items is also analysed.     

Friedman and Schwartz (1982) revisited: Assessing annual and phase-average models of money demand in the United Kingdom

Several studies have developed empirical models of U.K. mondy demand using the century of annual and phase-average data in Friedman and Schwartz (1982). The current paper evaluates key models from those studies, employing tests of constancy and encompassing. The evidence strongly favors an annual model from Ericsson, Hendry, and Prestwich (1998a), whereas models based on the phase-average data fare poorly.The first author is a staff economist in the Division of International Finace, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551 USA. The second author is Leverhulme Personal Research Professor of Economics at Nuffield College, Oxford OX1 1NF. The third author was a research assistan in the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board when this paper was initially drafted. The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System. The first author gratefully acknowledges the generous hospitality of Norges Bank, where he revised some of the material herein. The second author gratefully acknowledges financial support from the U.K. Economic and Social Research Council under grant R000234954. We wish to thank Clifford Attfield, David Demery, and Nigel Duck for compiling the data in Attfield, Demery, and Duck (1995); and Neva Kerbeshian, Helmut Lütkepohl, Jaime Marquez, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. All numerical results were obtained using PcGive Professional Version 9.0: see Doornik and Hendry (1996). The data may be obtained from the Internet at http://wotan.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/oeknometrie/engl/data.html     

The quartiles of the maximum entropy distribution

The quartile points and interquartile range of the maximum entropy (ME) distribution and sample distribution are compared, using expected values for sampling from a standard normal population. For sample sizes n?20 such that the sample quartile points are uniquely defined, the ME quartile points and interquartile range are found to have lower mean-squared error (MSE).     

Incentive regulation in the United Kingdom and the United States: Some lessons

Summary and Conclusions This paper has reviewed the approach to incentive regulation in the United Kingdom and the United States. The United Kingdom approach has typically relied on pure PCR, incorporating much sharper incentives for efficiency and lower transactions costs, but it makes the company more of a hostage to the regulator. The United States approach, which is grounded or even mired in the legal system, gives up efficiency incentives in an attempt to avoid making the companies the hostages of regulatory reneging.²⁷ The papers in this Issue illustrate the broad scope of incentive regulation, from the purer forms of PCR to a number of variations and mixtures of PCR with other forms of regulation. The interesting theoretic results and the importance of achieving practical solutions in incentive regulation underscore the importance of the problems and approaches raised in this Issue.