Balance sheet changes and the impact of financial sector risk-taking on fiscal multipliers

We analyse implications of financial sector dynamics for fiscal expenditure multipliers in recessionary conditions. A new stock-flow consistent model is developed in which a financial sector with four financial instruments is integrated with the real sector. The transmission of policy innovations occurs through balance sheet effects. Higher government expenditure increases aggregate demand in the economy. This reduces the perceived probability of default on financial institutions’ loans, increases asset valuations, and leads financial institutions to reduce interest rate spreads. Expectations of higher future wealth and a reduction in credit constraints supports consumption growth. Stronger balance sheets across institutions and lower interest rates increase investment. The interaction between growth and balance sheet valuations creates financial accelerator effects though its impact on financial sector risk-taking. Inflows of foreign savings can increase the multiplier further than would be the case in a closed economy constrained by domestic savings. The results show that fully modelling interactions between real and financial sectors generates fiscal multipliers higher than have been found for South Africa in other types of model.     

The impact of corporate debt on long term investment and firm performance

Prior research indicates a linkage between debt, research and development (R&D) and physical investment, and that the relationship varies depending on the type of firm (science versus non–science). Leverage also plays a multidimensional role in corporate performance and growth. The relationship between financial leverage and R&D expenditure is analysed using a sample of large United States (US) manufacturing firms. Then, the impact of leverage on R&D expenditure is studied using corporate performance drivers as intermediate variables. The results indicate that there is a strong negative relationship between the degree of financial leverage and the level of R&D expenditure that firms undertake. The negative relationship is robust to changes in model specifications and sample periods. More importantly, the results show that it is higher leverage that leads to lower R&D expense rather than R&D causing variations in future leverage. In addition, the results indicate that higher leverage adversely influences future investment in R&D which may in turn lead to negative impact on long term operating performance and future growth opportunities.     

Money and the dispersion of relative prices revisited

This study investigates the diffusion of two early Information technologies across 1348 institutions of higher education: (1) the adoption of Because It's Time Network (BITNET), a precursor to the Internet as we know it today and (2) the adoption of the Domain Name System (DNS) with its registration of domain names, an essential feature of the modern Internet. We find that the time paths of adoption for both generally exhibit the typical S shape found for other innovations. We identify factors likely responsible for the patterns observed and in the process extend the scope of the diffusion literature by incorporating insights from the optimization behaviour of nonprofits. Using a proportional hazards framework, we find that faster adoption occurred among institutions focused on research and doctoral education as well as among select liberal arts colleges relative to nonselect colleges. Faster adoption also occurred for larger institutions, suggesting that they benefited from economies of scale. Adoption was slower for institutions having a larger percent of female faculty members. Also, there is some evidence to suggest that public institutions were faster to innovate than private institutions, while institutions in the South tended to innovate more slowly than institutions located in other regions of the country.     

The role of spillovers in research and development expenditure in Australian industries

Using administrative data from firms in Australia that conduct research and development (R&;D), we examine how R&;D activity of other firms and public institutions affect a firm's own R&;D expenditure. We distinguish between the impact of peers, suppliers and clients. We examine whether geographical proximity and industrial clustering affect R&;D spillovers. Overall, we detect positive effects on R&;D expenditure from spillovers from peers and clients to firms that are nearby; within 25 or 50?km. R&;D expenditure by academia, unlike by government bodies, has a positive influence on a firm's own R&;D expenditure within state boundaries. We fail to find any significant role for industrial clusters in augmenting spillover effects.     

驱动经济高质量发展的科技创新要素及时空差异——2009—2017年省级面板数据的空间计量分析

基于2009—2017年中国内地31个省域面板数据,利用空间计量模型分析科技创新驱动经济高质量发展的时空差异,认为中国经济高质量发展指数稳步上升,空间聚集及正向溢出效应显著,空间依赖性强。R&D投入强度、科技研发成果、万人高校在校人数及城镇化率对经济高质量发展的影响均为正,财政教育支出的影响为负;经济地理距离相近省份R&D投入强度、财政教育支出及城镇化率对本省经济高质量发展的影响均为正,科技研发成果、万人高校在校人数及互联网基础条件的影响均为负。西部及中部地区科技创新人力与科技财政支出要素对经济高质量发展的积极影响大于其它地区,而东部地区科技资金投入、科技研发成果及科技成果转化度要素对经济高质量发展的积极影响大于其它地区。     

基于统计数据分析的英国科研活动特征及科学产出特点

2011年,英国国内研发总投入为274.亿英镑,占GDP的1.79%,达到近10年的最好水平;研发经费主要来自企业、政府、海外和大学,其中,企业占46%;企业使用经费占总经费的63%,高等院校使用经费占26%。研究发现,英国25%的职工持有高等教育资格;制药领域研发强度最大,为38.9%;英国的论文引用率每年增长7.2%,高于世界平均水平;在全球1%的高引用论文中,英国占13.8%,仅次于美国。分析显示,英国科学产出具有研究质量和效率高、研究领域全面、知识流动活跃、国际合作产出较高但专利申请低等特点。我国与英国在科学研究合作方面具有良好的基础,应充分利用英国领先的科学研究资源带动我国科学研究整体水平的提升。     

财政支出分权如何影响政府支出预算偏离*

政府支出决算与预算的差异可称之为支出预算偏离，其大小直接关系到现代预算制度的建设和积极财政政策提质增效的效果。预算最大化理论指出地方政府追求自由裁量预算的最大化，这会导致预算支出大于决算支出，而财政支出分权则便利了地方政府追求自由裁量预算最大化的条件，因此，财政支出分权是导致支出预算偏离的一个重要因素。利用1994—2017年全省层面和市县加总层面的财政预决算数据，本文发现，财政支出分权程度越高，政府支出预算偏离的程度也越大。不同形式的稳健性检验较好地支持了上述结论。此外，经济发展水平和财政透明度能够降低财政支出分权对预算偏离影响的程度。合理调整不同层级政府之间的事权，建立事权与支出责任相匹配的财政体制，适度加强中央事权和支出责任，将有效降低政府支出预算偏离的程度。     

财政支出分权如何影响政府支出预算偏离*

政府支出决算与预算的差异可称之为支出预算偏离，其大小直接关系到现代预算制度的建设和积极财政政策提质增效的效果。预算最大化理论指出地方政府追求自由裁量预算的最大化，这会导致预算支出大于决算支出，而财政支出分权则便利了地方政府追求自由裁量预算最大化的条件，因此，财政支出分权是导致支出预算偏离的一个重要因素。利用1994—2017年全省层面和市县加总层面的财政预决算数据，本文发现，财政支出分权程度越高，政府支出预算偏离的程度也越大。不同形式的稳健性检验较好地支持了上述结论。此外，经济发展水平和财政透明度能够降低财政支出分权对预算偏离影响的程度。合理调整不同层级政府之间的事权，建立事权与支出责任相匹配的财政体制，适度加强中央事权和支出责任，将有效降低政府支出预算偏离的程度。     

How to tame two Leviathans? Revisiting the effect of direct democracy on local public expenditure in a federation

We explore how the presence of direct democracy across hierarchical levels of government in a federation affects the level of public expenditure. In so doing we revisit the effect of direct democratic institutions on public policies. Particularly, we are interested whether the effect of upper-level (state) direct democratic institutions on lower-level expenditure varies with lower-level direct democracy. Empirically, we exploit the large institutional variation in the degree of direct democracy both for state (cantons) and local governments (municipalities) in Switzerland. Considering 119 municipalities belonging to 22 cantons for the period 1993–2007, we find that the cantonal fiscal referendum increases local spending for those municipalities without fiscal referenda, while this effect is significantly reduced for municipalities that also avail of referenda. This suggests that upper-level fiscal restraint can be undone by lower-level profligacy if direct-democratic control is limited to the upper level.     

研发人力资本配置与技术创新——异质教育层次视角

在经济增长结构性减速和经济向高质量转型发展背景下，探讨研发人力资本有效配置对中国经济结构转型发展具有重要现实意义。基于中国2009-2018年省际面板数据，根据教育层次异质性，将研发人力资本细分为本科及以下、硕士与博士3种类型，运用静态和动态面板回归模型，从创新总量与细分创新类型视角分析不同教育层次研发人力资本作用于技术创新的差异化特征。统计分析和实证研究表明，中国地区不同教育层次研发人力资本配置不平衡，本科及以下研发人力资本占据主导地位，而本科及以下研发人力资本对地区技术创新具有一定抑制效应，硕士研发人力资本对地区技术创新具有显著正向作用，博士研发人力资本对地区技术创新没有呈现显著正面效应，且相比于硕士研发人力资本具有更低的创新产出弹性，在科研创新效率方面没有体现出预期的教育优势。研究结果对中国高层次人力资本在技术创新中的优化配置和经济结构转型发展具有积极的借鉴意义。     

Microcredit in the North: An Institutional, Impact and Dependence Analysis Applied to the Spanish Case

Abstract ** : Microcredit programmes have been recently started in Spain, sparked by successful experiences in developing countries. The paper reviews the outstanding features of these programmes and their differences with developing countries models. It also moves forward the impact evaluation on unemployment and finds the subsidy dependence of Spanish microcredit institutions accurate because of the good results obtained by impact measures .     

Impact of microcredit on borrowers’ expenditures: a fuzzy regression discontinuity design approach

This article uses the data from 69 villages in Bangladesh to estimate the effect of participation in microcredit programmes on household expenditures. A regression discontinuity design (RDD) is used to identify the credit effect. Our results show heterogeneous treatment effect on different types of expenditures. We show that access to credit reduces per capita expenditure on durable goods such as kitchen equipment, furniture, repair and maintenance of house and increases the expenditure on per school-going child. We also show insignificant impact of access to credit on non-durable goods and health care, recreation and gifts. Interestingly, our results indicate a positive impact of microcredit on village-level expenditures.     

投资者调研影响创业板公司研发投入强度吗

以中国创业板市场2010-2014年上市公司为研究样本,实证检验了投资者调研对研发投入强度的影响,研究发现：①投资者调研能够显著提高公司研发投入强度,且这一影响在不确定性较高的研究阶段更为明显;②投资者调研对公司研发投入强度的影响在金融发展程度较低地区或高科技行业中更为明显;③相对于“常规式创新”企业,“探索式创新”企业的研发支出更容易受到投资者调研的影响。     

The impact of expenditure rules on budgetary discipline over the cycle

We study the impact of expenditure rules on the propensity for governments to deviate from their expenditure plans in response to surprising cyclical developments. Theoretical considerations suggest that due to political fragmentation in the budgetary process expenditure policy might be prone to a procyclical bias. However, this tendency may be mitigated by strictly enforced expenditure rules. These hypotheses are tested against data from a panel of EU Member States. Our key findings are that (1) deviations between actual and planned government expenditure tend to be positively related to output gap surprises, and (2) expenditure rules reduce this procyclical bias. These results are particularly pronounced when the analysis is confined to spending items with a high degree of budgetary flexibility.     

An assessment of the impact of tax incentives relative to socio-economic characteristics on charitable giving in Canada

This research examines the effectiveness of the Canadian tax incentive system for charitable giving while attempting to deal with two persistent methodological problems in past research. The Heckman selection model and the ordered probit model are used to examine the Canadian tax incentive system with 2010 survey data. The results imply that the effect of the tax credit systematically increases with an increase in donation expenditure suggesting that the higher tax credit for larger donations is more effective than the lower tax credit for smaller donations. While the results suggest that the current tax policy is effective, socio-economic characteristics, such as wealth, household income, and university education, appear to have a greater impact on donations.     

Joint research and development projects as technology training ventures

This paper presents an empirically derived model of the process through which industrial firms that lack internal resources in a particular technology area to implement certain research and development (R&D) projects on their own, initiale nad implement them jointly with not-for-profit research institutions. Such joint R&D projects are typically initiated by smaller, technologically less advanced firms in developing countires, with the underlying objective of training themselves in the relevant technology area and acquiring new technological resources from more advanced local research institutions, while simultaneously and rapidly completing the immediate R&D project. This process model has been developed by drawing from and synthesizing several in-depth case studies of such projects. In developing countries, joint R&D projects of this nature are important, as they can be more effective than formal technology training programmes for not-for-profit research institutions to fulfil their charter by transerning their advanced technical knowledge to the relatively less advanced local industrial firms. Participating firms that seek to their immediate interest, and therefore learn it rapidly and effectively. This paper adds to the scarce literature on ht process of organizational knowledge acquisition through contractual arrangements such as joint projects. It also enables both firms and research institutions to understand effective proceses for initiating and implementing such mutually beneficial joint R&D projects.     

社会地位会影响企业融资约束吗?——来自A股民营上市公司的经验证据

本文从企业的社会性对经济性行为影响的视角研究社会地位对民营企业融资约束的影响。以2009—2018年沪深A股民营上市公司为研究样本,研究发现社会地位越高的企业面临的融资约束程度越小。将企业所在地区的市场化程度以及企业高管的金融背景纳入考虑之后,研究发现相比于市场化程度较高的地区,在市场化程度较低地区,社会地位缓解企业融资约束的效果更为显著;相较于拥有金融关联的企业,没有金融关联的企业提升社会地位更有利于缓解融资约束。且进一步研究发现,在市场化程度较低地区,没有金融关联的企业社会地位缓解融资约束的效果最为显著。这些结论不仅拓展了企业“社会属性”对其“经济性”行为的影响研究,而且能够为民营企业缓解融资约束提供有益借鉴,尤其是处在市场化程度不高地区,且不存在金融关联的民营企业。     

Impacts de l'ouverture à la concurrence sur la R&D dans le secteur électrique

The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the opening of the competitive arena in regulated markets on the nature and intensity of innovation. The cases of the electricity sectors in the USA and England & Wales are taken as examples. The present condition and the evolution of R&D programmes and institutions in the American and English electric sectors are analysed. We show that the current regulatory reforms lead to significant cuts in R&D programmes, especially those focusing on new technological fields.     

Constitutional safeguards against centralization in federal states: An international cross-section analysis

This paper contains an international cross-section analysis of the share of central government expenditure in total government expenditure for a sample of about 50 countries and a subsample of 23 industrial countries in 1989–91. The expenditure shares, their changes and the unexplained residuals for each country are reported in Table 1. As the analysis demonstrates, the share of central government is significantly lower, if income per capita and the country's area are large and if it is a federal state. The explanatory power of the equation rises considerably if the binary dummy for federalism is replaced by quantitative constitutional variables. The most powerful single explanatory variable is the age of the constitutional court in the complete sample or the constitutional court's independence of union institutions in the sample of industrial countries. The equation's explanatory power (adjusted for degrees of freedom) can be raised by allowing also for the degree of control which provincial institutions have over the constitution and over the second chamber and by taking into account whether an increase in federal tax rates requires a popular referendum. Other types of constitutional referenda and the relative age of the federal constitution do not seem to matter. Among the federal states, the share of central government is much larger than predicted in the United States and Mexico, and it is much smaller than predicted in Argentina and Canada. The constitutional variables are particularly helpful in explaining the relatively small share of central government in Switzerland, Malaysia, Germany and Austria. The last section draws conclusions for the design of constitutions with some special applications to the European Union.     

The determinants of health care expenditure in Australia

The objective of this article is to examine the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics of the health care expenditure in Australia during the period 1960–2003. Consistent with the conventional findings, the income elasticity for health care is found to be greater than one, suggesting that health care is a luxury good in Australia. Demographic structure is found to exert a significant positive impact on health care expenditure. An increase in the accessibility to health care services is associated with higher per capita real health care expenditure. Finally, public funding of health care appears to have a contributory effect on the formation of health care expenditure in Australia.