Determinants of income diversification: evidence from Chinese banks

This article presents an analysis of the determinants of Chinese commercial banks’ income diversification decisions. Using a panel dataset comprising 88 Chinese domestic banks from 2003 to 2010, we find that bank diversification reflects a variety of managerial abilities: insolvency risks, cost, capital position, asset scale and ownership structure. A larger ratio of banking assets to gross domestic product and lower interest spread lead to a higher level of diversification. Moreover, national banks and regional banks have different strategic responses to the macroeconomic, and indeed, regulatory environment. Resisting shocks from the banking sector and the macro economy, and supplementing liquidity shortages from intermediation business seem to be the driving forces of national banks to operate in non-banking sectors.     

Determinants of ICT adoption: evidence from firm-level data

We analyse factors driving inter- and intra-firm diffusion of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) using data from Irish manufacturing firms over the period 2001 to 2004. We find that the path of ICT diffusion has been uneven across firms, industries and space, which is consistent with the theory of new technology adoption. Our results suggest that firms that are larger, younger, fast growing, skill-intensive, export-intensive and firms located in the capital city region have been relatively more successful in adopting and using ICT. We find positive technology spillovers from firms that have adopted ICT located in the same industry and region.     

Determinants of retail wine prices: evidence from Cyprus

This study uses a detailed panel dataset for the Cyprus wine market and a fixed effects simultaneous equations model specification to investigate retail wine price determinants. Our results show that producers’ pricing policies tend to be influenced more by the level of market concentration in the wine and retail industries than by competitors’ price movements. We propose a sales response model to identify the impact of marketing drivers on sales. Wine consumption in Cyprus is unit elastic, but the impact of competitive prices and retail distribution coverage on sales is small.     

Household search choice: theory and evidence

Since the work by Stigler (1961) on the economics of information in the early 1960s, economists have paid closer attention to the role of search for information. However, search methods are not considered in the theory of portfolio choice. We present a model of investor search behaviour in order to provide a framework by which to evaluate our empirical evidence on the role of search in portfolio selection and performance. We study two types of search methods: informal and professional. We show that the income, wealth and risk preference of households influence their search choice.     

Regret in auctions: theory and evidence

The sealed-bid first-price auction of a single object in the case of independent privately-known values is the simplest auction setting and understanding it is important for understanding more complex mechanisms. But bidders bid above the risk-neutral Nash equilibrium theory prediction. The reasons for this “over bidding” remain an unsolved puzzle. Several explanations have been offered, including risk aversion, social comparisons, and learning. We present a new explanation based on regret and a model that explains not only the observed over bidding in sealed-bid first-price auctions, but also behavior in several other settings that is inconsistent with risk aversion. The authors gratefully acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation.     

Information gatekeepers: theory and experimental evidence

We consider a model where two adversaries can spend resources in acquiring public information about the unknown state of the world in order to influence the choice of a decision maker. We characterize the sampling strategies of the adversaries in the equilibrium of the game. We show that as the cost of information acquisition for one adversary increases, that person collects less evidence whereas the other adversary collects more evidence. We then test the results in a controlled laboratory setting. The behavior of subjects is close to the theoretical predictions. Mistakes are relatively infrequent (15%). They occur in both directions, with a higher rate of over-sampling (39%) than under-sampling (8%). The main difference with the theory is the smooth decline in sampling around the theoretical equilibrium. Comparative statics are also consistent with the theory, with adversaries sampling more when their own cost is low and when the other adversary??s cost is high. Finally, there is little evidence of learning over the 40 matches of the experiment.     

Technology and labor regulations: theory and evidence

This paper shows that different labor market policies can lead to differences in technology across sectors in a model of labor saving technologies. Labor market regulations reduce the skill premium and as a result, if technologies are labor saving, countries with more stringent labor regulation, which bind more for low skilled workers, become less technologically advanced in their high skill sectors, but more technologically advanced in their low skill sectors. We then present data on capital-output ratios, on estimated productivity levels and on patent creation, which tend to support the predictions of our model.     

Determinants of corporate capital structure: evidence from Hungarian firms

This paper investigates the capital structure of Hungarian firms using a cross-section and a panel data approach. The data set is composed of balance sheet data and information on market structure for 1100 firms from 1992 to 1996. Evidence is found of imperfections that constrain firms in the achievement of their optimal capital structure, but also some positive indications: there are no distortions typical of the planned system and no signs of the presence of soft budget constraints.     

Determinants of the systematic risk of electric utilities: theory and estimation

Investors' perceptions of the risk of holding the common stocks of electric utilities are analysed on the assumption that risk depends on the covariance of shareholder returns with the market. The analysis explicitly relates risk to the sales and cost structures, growth, and regulatory environment of each electric utility. The model accounts for the effects of regulatory lag during periods of cost inflation. The model is estimated using a pooled cross-section, time-series sample of 95 electric utilities for the period 1965 to 1977. Estimates indicate that sales,cost structure and growth dominate investors' assessment of the systematic risk of individual firms. Surprisingly, differences in regulatory treatment experienced by firms have a relatively small effect on perceived systematic risk.     

Determinants of vertical integration in export processing: Theory and evidence from China

This paper examines the determinants of vertical integration versus outsourcing in export processing, by exploiting the coexistence of two export processing regimes in China, which designate by law who owns and controls the imported components. Based on a variant of the Antràs-Helpman (2004) model, we show theoretically that control over imported components for assembly can affect firm integration decisions. Our empirical results show that when Chinese plants control the use of components, the export share of foreign-owned plants is positively correlated with the intensity of inputs provided by the headquarter (capital, skill, and R&D). These results are consistent with the property-rights theory of intra-firm trade. However, when foreign firms own and control the components, there is no evidence of a positive relationship between the intensity of headquarters' inputs and the prevalence of vertical integration. The results are consistent with our model that considers control over imported components as an alternative to asset ownership to alleviate hold-up by export-processing plants.     

Austrian business cycle theory: Empirical evidence

The Austrian approach to business cycles has been seldom examined in econometric terms. This paper first reviews the essentials of that approach and the recent application of the Austrian business cycle theory in the economics literature. Quarterly data for Germany, USA, England and France, 1980:1 through 2006:1, are used to explore business cycle facts and relations between terms structure of interest rates, relative prices, composition of aggregate expenditure and real GDP. Results are consistent with the hypothesis of the Austrian business cycle theory that monetary policy shocks explain cycles. The changes in term structure of interest rates and composition of aggregate expenditure are large enough to explain changes in aggregate economic activity.

Determinants of privatization of public corporations: evidence from the Japanese experience

The main purpose of this study is to find factors affecting privatization decisions. This study investigates the determinants of privatization by applying the probit model for a data set of special public corporations in Japan. In December 2001, the Japanese government made a resolution to consider the privatization of special public corporations, evaluating 74 special public corporations for possible privatization. In the empirical analysis on the determinants of privatization, we find that among several factors affecting privatization decisions, two are important—the market condition factor and the policy/regulation factor. As for market conditions, a public corporation which exists in a commercialized industry is about 20% more likely to be privatized than others. As for the policy and regulation factor, the public corporation’s privatization under a single regulator is about 25% more likely, compared with the public corporation’s privatization under multiple regulators.     

Nonlinear economic growth: Some theory and cross-country evidence

This paper aims to test the existence of different growth regimes, that is of different relationships between growth rate and income level. We propose a simple nonlinear growth model and test its empirical implications by estimating Markov transition matrices and stochastic kernels. We show that growth is indeed nonlinear: a first phase of slow or zero growth is followed by a take-off and, finally, by a phase of deceleration. We discuss the relevance of these results with respect to the issue of convergence and reversibility of development, in the light of models of structural change and technological diffusion.     

Bargaining in the transfer market: theory and evidence

This paper examines the transfer market for association football players as operated in the English Football League using transfer data for the 1990–91 season. After describing the purposes and procedures involved in the transfer system together with the motives of the participants, we apply two-person bargaining theory to analyse the determination of transfer fees. The data and estimation procedures are explained and the results reported and interpreted. Our analysis suggests that the Nash bargaining theory captures the salient features of the bargaining process in the footballer's transfer market.     

Transition to FDI openness: Reconciling theory and evidence

Empirical studies quantifying the economic effects of increased foreign direct investment (FDI) have not provided conclusive evidence that they are positive, as theory predicts. This paper shows that the lack of empirical evidence is consistent with theory if countries are in transition to FDI openness. Anticipated welfare gains lead to temporary declines in domestic investment and employment. Also, growth measures miss some intangible FDI, which is expensed from company profits. The reconciliation of theory and evidence is accomplished with a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model parameterized with data from a sample of 104 countries during 1980–2005. Although no systematic benefits of FDI openness are found, the model demonstrates that the eventual gains in growth and welfare can be huge, especially for small countries.     

Transfers among divorced couples: evidence and interpretation

An analysis of the economic impact of divorce settlements in the United States is presented using data for a white cohort taken from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972. "The effects of spouses' incomes on the divorce transfer are estimated and used to simulate the welfare effects of divorce on husbands, wives, and children under alternative assumptions about marriage contracts and the ability of a couple to continue coordinating resources in the aftermath of divorce. We find a positive (negative) relationship between divorce transfers and the growth of husband's (wife's) earnings during marriage. The estimated expenditure on children in the divorce state is only half the accustomed level during marriage."     

Determinants of foreign direct investment: empirical evidence from EU accession candidates

This study examines bilateral foreign direct investments (FDI) between the members of the European Union and eight central and east European candidate (CEEC) economies in transition, awaiting accession into the European Union (EU). Cross-section data were obtained for Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia for 1997. Once the main characteristics of FDI recipient and donor nations are identified in a bilateral framework, it will be feasible to predict future FDI inflows. This study reveals that the key determinants of FDI inflows in CEECs are size of the host economy, host country risk, labour costs in host country, and openness to trade. Countries that are receiving fewer foreign investments could make themselves more attractive to potential donor nations by focusing on some of the key determinants identified by this study.     

Determinants of household saving in the G-7 countries: recent evidence

This paper employs data from the last four decades to analyse major determinants of household saving for the Group of Seven (G-7) nations. Particular attention is paid to the effects of interest rates, government saving, and social security contributions. Regression analysis is used to control for the effects of both the level and changes in income per capita and inflation.     

Taxation and corruption: theory and firm-level evidence from Uganda

This article develops a simple framework to analyse the negotiation over bribe and tax payments during the tax collection process. We show that the larger the bribe a firm offers to a tax collector, the larger the tax rebate it gets. More particularly, we show that the negotiation over bribe and tax payments hinges on four other factors: firms’ official liabilities, detection, firms’ negotiation power and red tape costs imposed on firms. Some of the predictions from the theoretical model are tested using firm-level data from Uganda. We find that bribe and tax payments are inversely related, thereby supporting the hypothesis of a negotiation taking place between firms and tax collectors. In particular, a 1% point increase in average bribe payments per employee is associated with a 7% point reduction in average amount of tax payments per employee. Results are robust to various instruments dealing with the endogenous relationship between bribes and taxes.     

Merchant and regulated transmission: theory, evidence and policy

Economists acknowledge the problems of regulated transmission but have different views on the likely efficiency of merchant transmission. This paper first examines the evidence on alleged market failure and regulatory failure as experienced in practice in Australia, where there have been both regulated and merchant interconnectors. Merchant transmission has generally not exhibited the standard examples of market failure but regulated transmission generally has exhibited the standard examples of regulatory failure. Imperfect information??more specifically, in the form of lack of coordination??has often been a challenge whatever the approach. Experience in Argentina suggests that transactions costs are not a barrier to negotiation and efficient investment determined by users. Policy should seek to improve the regulatory framework and to remove barriers to private initiatives. An important role for regulation is to facilitate coordination between potential providers and users of transmission lines.