Why has wage inequality increased more in the USA than in Europe? An empirical investigation of the demand and supply of skill

During the past two decades the wage gap between high and low skill labour has increased more in the USA than in many European countries. In this paper, the correspondence between occupation and education is used to construct aggregates of skill supply, skill demand and unemployment by skill group that are comparable across countries. Using individual data for years 1983–1994, it is found that the relative demand for skilled labour has increased to a similar extent in the USA and in Europe and that wage inequality remained low in Europe partly because the European relative supply of skill increased much faster than in the USA, and partly because European relative wages were rigid, which caused an increase in unemployment among the low-skilled.     

Hysteresis in unemployment for 17 OECD countries: Stationary test with a Fourier function

In this empirical study, we apply stationary test with a Fourier function proposed by Becker et al. (2006) to re-examine the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment for 17 OECD countries over the 1960 to 2009 period. The hysteresis in unemployment is confirmed for most of these 17 OECD countries, with the exception of Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Sweden and the USA, when Becker et al.'s (2006) stationary test with a Fourier function is conducted.     

A comparison of the Beveridge curve dynamics in Italy and USA

In this article, we investigate the Beveridge curve dynamics in the USA and Italy by means of a cointegrated structural VAR model. A simple economic model is introduced to motivate the identifying assumptions of the empirical analysis. A stable long-run relationship is found for both countries. In order to study the dynamic behaviour of the model, and to decompose unemployment and vacancy fluctuations, we identify three common stochastic trends. The empirical results suggest that there are some sources of hysteresis in unemployment in both countries. Transitory shocks are also identified to account for the short-run dynamics of the model. The approach allows us to detach the long-run from the short-run dynamics, in order to provide information on the cyclical and structural Beveridge curve.     

Further evidence on alternative theories of inflation and unemployment:the Scandination countries

The objective of this study is to estimate the inflation and unemployment models of various of macroeconomics as suggested by Sargent, Stein and Rea, and to test the validity of their propositions using the data of four Scandinavian countries, namely Denmark, Finland Norway and Sweden. The results provide some support for the new classical models on unemployment, but the monetory variables, as monetarists argue, have a significant effect on unemployment. With regard to inflation, the data of the Scandinavian countries do not support the monetarist proposition that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. However, the results support Keynesian propositions that economic slack represented by unemployment is important in explaining the rate of inflation.     

Unemployment hysteresis - macro evidence from 16 OECD countries

This paper investigates empirically the presence ofunemployment hysteresis in 16 OECD countries, applying aggregate quarterly unemployment rates covering the past 25 years. Alternative test procedures are discussed and employed, posing both stationarity and hysteresis as null hypotheses. The results suggest that hysteresis effects are highly significant in Australia and Canada, and to a lesser extent also significant in most European countries and in Japan. Only in the USA, the presence of unemployment hysteresis is strongly and consistently rejected.Without attributing to them opinions or errors in the paper, I wish to thank Steinar Strøm, Ragnar Nymoen, Arvid Raknerud, Anders Rygh Swensen, Jeremy Smith and two referees for helpful comments.     

Cyclical Asymmetries in Unemployment Rates: International Evidence

This paper investigates to what extent the observed nonlinearities in the unemployment rates of six major developed economies are the response to cyclical asymmetries. Two classes of models are compared: strict smooth transition autoregressions and models where the transition variable is GDP growth, which is considered a more direct indicator of the business cycle. The empirical evidence points out that nonlinearities in unemployment rates are induced by cyclical asymmetries. It is also found that in most countries the unemployment rate looks stationary and reverts to a long-run equilibrium rate in periods of normal growth, while in extreme cyclical situations it tends to become nonstationary as if each extreme cyclical episode had its own path of equilibrium.      

REVISITING THE REAL WAGES–UNEMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP. NEW RESULTS FROM NON-LINEAR MODELS

We examine the long-run real wages–unemployment relationship for five OECD countries over the period 1960:1–2001:4. Given the theoretical possibility of non-linear equilibrium due to downward real wage rigidity we employ econometric tests that allow for the presence of non-linearities in the long-run equilibrium. We adopt the notion of 'hidden co-integration' suggested by Granger and Yoon . This methodology has several advantages with respect to other non-linear models. We find statistical evidence that, in general, there is a long-run positive relation between real wages and unemployment only when both are affected by positive shocks. We also find a negative relationship between unemployment and productivity. The empirical analysis is complemented with the estimation of error correction models for all countries.     

Interest Rate Defenses of Currency Pegs

ABSTRACT

Reducing rigidity in labor markets is key to lowering unemployment. Theoretical models suggest that the impact of such reforms depends on the country-specific regulatory framework. We test this hypothesis by estimating the impact of changes in six categories of regulation conditional on the country-specific regulatory environment for 26 OECD countries. We overcome problems of modeling a large set of institutional interdependencies by applying a machine learning type model selection approach. We provide evidence for the existence of higher-order institutional interdependencies. We further document that especially for changes in employment protection and the unemployment benefit system the impact on unemployment is mixed across countries.     

UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN: AN EFFCIENCY WAGE PERSPECTIVE

Many OECD economies suffered a productivity slowdown beginning in the early 1970s. However, the increase in unemployment that followed this slowdown was more pronounced in European economies relative to the USA. In this paper we present an efficiency wage model, which enables us to identify two basic channels through which the productivity slowdown can affect workers' effort incentives. Predictions of the model are consistent with the different trends in unemployment across countries over this period in the face of a similar slowdown in productivity. We also demonstrate how the link between growth and unemployment depends upon labour market institutions in such a way that we can reconcile the mixed empirical results observed in the literature.     

Labour market institutions and unemployment: an international panel data analysis

This paper deals with the effects of labour market institutions on unemployment in a panel of 19 OECD countries for the period 1960–2000. In contrast to many other studies, we use long time series and analyse cyclically adjusted trend values of the unemployment rate. Our novel contribution is the estimation of panel models where we allow for heterogeneous effects of institutions on unemployment. Our main results are, first, that on the average tighter employment protection, a higher tax burden on labour income and a more generous unemployment insurance system increase, whereas a higher centralization of wage negotiations decreases unemployment, and secondly, that the magnitude of the effects of institutions differs considerably between countries.     

Does the unemployment invariance hypothesis hold for Romania?

This article questions whether the unemployment invariance hypothesis of Layard et al. (2005), which states that movements in labour force do not significantly affect unemployment rates, holds true for Romania. Using quarterly labour force data for the 1996–2012 period, we explore the time-series properties of the two variables. We find that unemployment rates and participation rates have unit roots, and that they are not cointegrated, meaning that no significant long-term relationship exists between them. The analysis carried out on the first differences of unemployment rates and participation rates shows discouraged and added worker effects for Romania’s female labour force. This conclusion diverges from findings that point out to a stable, long-term relationship between unemployment and participation in several developed countries (Japan, Sweden, USA) and shows that Romanian labour market is highly adaptive, where changes in labour force participation do not lead to increases in unemployment. This finding can help model the influence of adverse developments such as ageing and emigration, and show their true impact beyond demographic doom scenarios. It also points out the role played by labour demand in shaping the evolution of the Romanian labour market.     

The presence of unemployment hysteresis in the OECD: what can we learn from out-of-sample forecasts?

This paper investigates the relevance of unemployment hysteresis in seventeen OECD countries. We employ an out-of-sample forecast exercise in which a mean-reverting autoregressive model is compared to an autoregressive model with an imposed unit root. A substantial difference in forecasting performance between the two models is established for many countries, but the results are mixed in their strength. The evidence for unemployment hysteresis in Austria, Finland, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Japan and Sweden is, however, convincing. For no country can unambiguous support for a mean reverting unemployment rate be found.     

Microcredit in the North: An Institutional, Impact and Dependence Analysis Applied to the Spanish Case

Abstract ** : Microcredit programmes have been recently started in Spain, sparked by successful experiences in developing countries. The paper reviews the outstanding features of these programmes and their differences with developing countries models. It also moves forward the impact evaluation on unemployment and finds the subsidy dependence of Spanish microcredit institutions accurate because of the good results obtained by impact measures .     

Unemployment In Developing Countries: Economist's Models in Light of Evidence From Sri Lanka

Observation of open unemployment in developing countries has lead some economist to formulate models which seek to explain this phenomenon. This paper examines unemployment in Sri Lanka in detail to see whether the assumptions and conclusions of economists' models are consistent with empirical data. In the case of Sri Lanka, these models provide a useful starting point but miss some of the essential details. Until one examines how the unemployed support themselves and how they spend their time, one's understanding of this phenomenon, as well as one's suggestions for policy changes, is necessarily incomplete. [820]     

The nonlinear time series properties of unemployment rates: some further evidence

The time series properties of unemployment rates for Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are re-examined. Evidence of nonlinear structure in the residuals of the most parsimonious linear ARMA models is reported for all countries except Japan. Modelling this nonlinearity using SETAR models suggests strong asymmetry in unemployment dynamics and the presence of a possible limit cycle for the UK. However, residual diagnostics for these models indicate remaining structure. Alternative TAR models conditioned on past growth rates of industrial production yield substantial reductions in residual variance over both linear and SETAR counterparts, iid residuals in all cases other than the US, and threshold values at or very near zero, clearly identifying the asymmetric behaviour of unemployment during expansionary and contractionary phases of the business cycle.     

Urban job creation and unemployment in LDCs: Todaro vs. Harris and Todaro

Overwhelming urban migration occurred so rapidly in many developing countries that widespread unemployment and squalid living conditions are commonplace. For many of these countries, stopping urban migration has become a major policy. Two models propose 2 different theories of urban unemployment. Todaro's short-term effects model concludes that job creation actually causes unemployment. Todaro and Harris formulated a long-term effects model in which welfare subsidies create more employment and stimulate the economy. A real solution to urban job creation would include optimal allocation of investment between the rural and labor sectors. A once and for all hiring tax would reduce replacement hiring. It is impossible to design an optimal tax subsidy package for urban unemployment unless it includes knowledge of the dynamic response of migration and unemployment to the rate of net and gross hiring of labor. If subsidy taxes are levied on the agricultural sector, the net result may be a higher rate of capital formation in the (low social return) manufacturing sector and a lower one in the agricultural sector.     

Trade between Euro zone and Arab countries: a panel study

We present empirical evidence regarding unemployment dynamics for women and men in eight OECD countries. Unit-root tests are used to examine the unemployment dynamics of women and men. Failure to reject the unit-root hypothesis is consistent with unemployment hysteresis. Rejection of the unit-root hypothesis indicates that unemployment dynamics are best explained by the natural rate of unemployment or the structuralist view. We find evidence of gender differences in unemployment dynamics in Canada, Germany and the US, but not in other countries. While there are some differences in the extent of persistence across gender and across countries, the degree of persistence for both female and male unemployment rates is fairly low in all countries. Our results, therefore, contrast with substantial empirical evidence of high levels of unemployment persistence in European countries.     

Relation between growth and unemployment in a model with labor-force participation and adverse labor institutions

Based on labor search models with an exogenous labor force, existing papers have found a negative relation between long-run economic growth and unemployment. Motivated by the fact that the labor force participation has changed substantially across OECD countries, this paper revisits the long-run relation by taking account of endogenous labor-force participation. We find that, via the effects on employment, changes in labor market institutions may increase or decrease long-run economic growth. Moreover, depending upon the effects on the labor force and employment, these labor market institutions may increase or decrease unemployment rates in the long run. Thus, changes in labor market institutions lead to a non-monotone relation between long-run economic growth and unemployment that is consistent with the data.     

How do Migrants Choose Their Destination Country? An Analysis of Institutional Determinants

We analyze the effects of socio‐economic and institutional determinants, especially labor‐market institutions and features of social protection systems, on migrants’ location choices. Based on micro‐data for France, Germany, the UK, and the USA, we study migration to one of these four countries using a multinomial choice framework. Our estimates confirm conventional results regarding wages, networks, and unemployment rates. In addition, we find that there are indications of “insider–outsider effects” for union coverage and unemployment benefits, while employment protection does not have a clear‐cut impact on migration. Good education and health systems tend to attract migrants, while generous pension systems deter them.     

Episodes of unemployment reduction in rich,middle-income and transition economies

This paper studies the incidence and determinants of episodes of drastic unemployment reduction, defined as swift, substantial, and sustained declines in unemployment. We identify 43 episodes over a period of nearly 3 decades in 94 rich, middle-income and transition countries. Unemployment reductions often coincide with an acceleration of growth and an improvement in macroeconomic conditions. Episodes are much more prevalent in countries with higher levels of unemployment and, given unemployment, are more likely in countries with better regulation. An efficient legal system that enforces contracts expeditiously is particularly important for reducing unemployment. The results imply that while employment is largely related to the business cycle, better regulation reduces likelihood of high unemployment and facilitates a more rapid recovery in the event unemployment builds up.