我国商品房销售价格的影响因素——基于空间面板计量模型的实证分析

运用空间面板计量模型,利用2000—2009年中国31个省域的面板数据,实证分析了我国商品房销售价格与其影响因素的关系。实证结果显示:空间面板计量模型的拟合效果更好、解释力更强;我国的商品房销售价格存在正向的空间相关性,相邻地区商品房销售价格的提高能够推动本地区商品房销售价格的提高;城镇居民收入水平、城镇化水平、第三产业发展水平和对外开放程度对商品房销售价格有正向推动作用,政府对经济的干预程度和工业化水平的提升有助于降低商品房销售价格。     

房地产投资在地方经济发展中的影响研究——基于东部10个省市的经验分析

在构建房地产投资与地方经济增长的面板数据模型基础上,利用东部地区10个省市1996～2009年的数据,就房地产投资对地方经济增长的影响进行了实证检验。结果显示,房地产投资通过其投资效应和极强的产业波及效应推动了东部地区各省市的经济增长,但是这种增长效应并不显著,弱于同期的人力资本形成、物质资本投资和外贸发展的推动效应。     

经济适用房投资额与商品房价格的动态关系

基于VAR模型分析了经济适用房投资额与商品房价格之间的动态关系。Granger因果关系检验结果显示,经济适用房投资额与商品房价格之间存在双向的Granger因果关系;脉冲响应函数图像分析结果显示,经济适用房的投资在初期起到了平抑商品房价格的作用,但随后对商品房价格的上涨却具有推波助澜的作用。     

房地产融资渠道多元化探析--基于我国金融信贷与房地产融资的实证分析

房地产业的发展是我国经济增长的稳定器。本文从研究目前我国房地产金融调控措施出发，通过回归和关联分析阐述金融信贷对房地产业发展的互动关系，并探析房地产融资的多元化渠道，进而提出完善建议，对促进房地产业健康发展具有重要意义。     

空间市场视角下商业房地产研究回顾

本文基于空间市场的视角,对商业房地产空间市场的分析和预测、商业空间的多样化,以及与商业空间租赁相关的租金、租赁行为、租约及空间的租买选择等方面的研究进行了系统综述。     

Impact of environmental information disclosure and real estate segments on cost of debt: Evidence from the Chinese real estate industry

The novel part of this paper is to examine the individual and joint effects of the real estate segments (RETs) and environmental information disclosure (EID) on the cost of debt (COD) in the real estate industry in China. Building on extant literature, using 1,250 firm‐year observations from 2006 to 2016 and applying both Feasible General Least Squares and Two‐stage Least Squares Instrumental Variable approaches, we provide evidence that the commercial RET leads to an increase in the COD, while EID leads to a decrease in the COD. The joint effects of the RETs and EID on the COD indicate a significantly positive relationship with the COD. This signifies that even with the increased levels of EID in commercial real estate sectors, its COD is higher than for residential real estate sectors. These findings have important policy implications for environmental risk assessments for real estate sectors, their lending institutions and wider stakeholder groups.     

收入、游资与近代上海房地产价格

近代上海房地产价格呈长期上涨趋势。当时的房地产消费结构体现了移民城市流动性大的特征,也与当时的房屋建筑结构相关。租房消费是主流。绝大多数人按收入状况的不同租住不同地段不同等级的房子,居住状况呈两极分化趋势。近代上海房地产价格与国内外资金在上海的汇聚状况密切相关,近代史上几次房地产价格的超常大涨都是游资在起推波助澜的作用。     

China’s house price: Affected by economic fundamentals or real estate policy?

Many theory and empirical literature conclude that house price can reflect economic fundamentals in the long-term. However, by using China’s panel data of 35 main cities stretching from 1998 to 2007, we find that there is no stable relationship between house price and economic fundamentals. House price has deviated upward from the economic fundamentals since government started macro-control of the real estate market. We consider that the mechanism between the house price and economic fundamentals is distorted by China’s real estate policy, especially its land policy. Meanwhile the policy itself is an important factor in explaining the changes of China’s house price. Then we estimate the dynamic panel data model on house price and the variables which are controlled by real estate policy. The result shows: land supply has negative effects on house price; financial mortgages for real estate have positive effects on house price; and the area of housing sold and the area of vacant housing, which reflects the supply and demand of the housing market, has negative effects on house price. We also find some differences in house price influence factor between eastern and mid-western cities. Finally, we propose policy suggestions according to the empirical results.     

Benchmarking superannuation funds based on relative performance

In this article, we assess fund performance using data envelopment analysis (DEA). For each inefficient fund, DEA provides a set of role model funds whose best practices may be emulated for performance improvement. We find that the role models of most inefficient funds consist entirely of funds different from their own type. To overcome this situation, we suggest a multi-step DEA procedure. The procedure starts by categorizing funds on a hierarchical basis. We establish the hierarchy based on the frequency of efficient funds that belong to each fund type. Thereafter, a set of role model funds for each inefficient fund is found by pooling the funds in its own category and the funds that belongs to the categories at the lower levels in the hierarchy and applying DEA. This procedure is repeated by augmenting the pool with funds at the next higher level and so on until all the sampled funds are included. At each step, a set of role models is identified. An inefficient fund can thus reach the efficient frontier in stages. Statistical evidence suggests that membership and proportion of risky assets may have a negative association, and the fund size may have a positive association with fund performance.     

我国直辖市信贷规模对房地产价格的影响研究

分析我国4个直辖市1999—2009年的面板数据,运用协整检验及误差修正模型,考察了房地产价格与信贷规模的长期和短期关系。结果表明：第一,直辖市房地产价格与信贷规模存在协整关系,且信贷规模对房地产价格的影响是正向的;第二,短期内信贷规模对房地产价格存在影响,且上期房地产价格的变动对房价有显著影响。     

商品房价格不确定条件下旁地产企业投资决策的期权模型研究

随着我国市场改革开放的进一步深入，市场竞争日益激烈，房地产投资受市场不确定性因素影响更加敏感。本文首先将房地产项目的固有价值进行分解，将不确定性建立在房地产投资产品——商品房的价格之上，利用美式永续期权定价方法建立相应的房地产企业投资决策模型。本文还对这一模型进行了数值分析，分析表明，房地产企业投资期权价值以及最优执行期权时的临界价格与其相应的商品房价格的波动率成正向相关关系.     

基于集成化供应链理论的商业房地产管理模型研究

将集成化供应链理论引入商业房地产行业还没有见到有关论述,笔者根据房地产供应链分类和国内外对房地产开发流程的论述,建立了商业房地产集成化供应链管理模型,并对模型和模型中各流程及其相互关系进行了分析,提出了集成化供应链管理的实现方式,为量化计算模型的各项指标打下了基础.     

Income inequality between overlapping and stratification: a longitudinal analysis of personal earnings in France and Italy

The aim of this paper is to gain new insights into the generation process of personal income in France and Italy, two countries that are in close geographical proximity but have a large disparity in terms of income growth and distribution. In the first step, the potential of EU-SILC balanced panel (2004–2007) is exploited by random effects models, which also make it possible to explore the primary factors that are likely to explain differences in generating personal labour earnings. In the second step, the ANOGI (Analysis of Gini) decomposition enables one to assess the contribution of each sub-population to overall income inequality and the degree to which each subgroup is stratified. A joint evaluation of income determinants gives evidence of the high complexity of inequality process and throws light on the role of gender, skill levels and job characteristics in determining different degrees of income stratification. Indeed, although the high heterogeneity among members of a same subgroup (within-group inequality) explains a large share of overall income inequality, the between-group inequality becomes significant in explaining the income differentials between employment status and occupation types.     

我国房地产上市公司综合竞争力的评价

选取了在深圳和上海证券交易所上市的54家房地产企业,运用因子分析法建立了反映企业现实和潜在竞争力的5个主因子和综合得分因子模型,借以评价我国房地产上市公司的综合竞争力。     

珠三角房地产泡沫测度实证研究——以广州为例

在比较国内外房地产泡沫测度方法的基础上,以广州为例,选择因子分析法来测度珠三角房地产市场的泡沫程度。研究发现1996—2005年珠三角房地产市场的泡沫测度值波动较小,虽然在个别年份出现了泡沫,但房地产市场整体运行平稳。而以城市规划和土地储备制度为中心的政府有效宏观调控政策、房地产业的高度市场化和消费者理性是珠三角房地产市场平稳运行主要原因。     

基于系统动力学的房地产调控政策动态仿真模型

从供需两个方面综合分析了土地政策、税收政策和金融政策对我国房地产市场的影响路径和传导机理。运用系统动力学分析原理,构建了房地产调控政策动态分析模型,并利用计算机软件进行仿真模拟。对拟实施政策效果进行比较分析的结果显示:土地政策对我国房地产市场的影响最大,税收政策对房地产供给市场的影响比对需求市场的影响大;同时调节利率工具和信贷工具变量,金融政策仍对我国房地产市场的影响不大。最后提出,我国应将调控供给作为调控房地产市场的重点。     

房地产泡沫问题及实证分析

自1998年开始,随着福利化分房的结束,住房商品化的开始,我国房地产业进入了持续快速发展的新时期.与此同时,房地产价格也连续快速攀升.近年来,关于我国房地产泡沫问题的争论不绝于耳,但是一直未有定论.在借鉴国内外理论研究的基础上,引用最新的统计数据,运用定量方法,对我国1997-2006年房地产业运行中是否存在泡沫进行实证分析,得出结论:我国还不存在严格意义上的全国普遍性的房地产泡沫,但泡沫化倾向明显,需警惕.     

房地产开发企业绩效评价指标体系研究

房地产开发企业绩效评价指标体系的科学设置有利于引导与促进房地产开发企业的可持续发展.房地产开发企业的经营活动有其突出的特点,而房地产开发企业的经营特点决定了其绩效评价指标体系设置的原则与要求,即以房地产开发企业的可持续发展为指导思想,遵循相关性、综合性、重要性、可比性、可操作性、可接受性和成本效益的原则和要求.房地产开发企业的业绩评价指标体系应由财务层面、客户层面、内部开发建造与创新层面、职员层面、环境层面组成.     

Perspectives on the Guaranteed Income,Part I

Strengthening economic, social, and territorial cohesion is a central objective of the European Union. However, disparities between European regions are considerable, and there are doubts as to whether they are likely to be attenuated. In recent years, there has been a growing body of literature that examines the effectiveness of the European Union’s funds for promoting growth and reducing asymmetries among members. We contribute to this literature by examining the conditions under which the European Union’s financial aid may be affecting regional growth. We explore the interactions between transfers and income and other regional characteristics, such as human capital or innovation. We apply this study to a panel of 137 European regions, covering the period from 1995 to 2009. Our conclusions suggest a positive and significant marginal impact of funds only in regions with low levels of human capital and innovation.     

熵权模糊综合评判在商业地产后评价中的应用

在进行商业地产后评价中,通过引入“熵权”概念,提出将评价指标的客观熵权与重要性的主观权重相结合,避免了传统的专家打分法的不确定性和随意性。建立熵权模糊综合评判模型,运用该模型对杭州湖滨商业街项目进行后评价,在实际运用中取得了满意的效果。