Cash-flow news,market liquidity and liquidity risk

This article adopts Campbell's (1991) return decomposition model to decompose the unexpected stock return and unexpected excess stock return in the US stock market. The study also investigates the factors that cause the shock to stock return and excess stock return. We further examine the responses of stock market to cash-flow news, expected stock return news, expected excess stock return news and interest rate news. Last, we examine the reaction of market liquidity, liquidity risk and abnormal trading volume to cash-flow news, expected stock return news, expected excess stock return news and interest rate news. Our main findings are summarized as follows: first, cash-flow news is the main driver of stock return and excess stock return in stock market. Second, the dividend payout ratio is able to predict stock return and excess stock return. Third, under the model of stock return variance, unexpected market liquidity and unexpected liquidity risk are negatively related to expected stock return news, but not related to cash-flow news. Fourth, under the model of excess stock return variance, unexpected market liquidity and unexpected liquidity risk are negatively related to cash-flow news, expected excess stock return news, and interest rate news.     

Uncertainty and liquidity in corporate bond market

We examine the uncertainty–liquidity connection in the corporate bond market. Using monthly corporate bond data from 2005 to 2010, we construct proxies for parameter uncertainty by using firm-level parameters generated from a structural model of corporate debt. We find that uncertainty about firm parameters decreases trading volume but increases bid-ask spreads and price bouncing in the cross-section and across time. In addition, the panel VAR results show that parameter uncertainty has negative forecasting power for future bond liquidity, with greater uncertainty in the current month leading to lower trading volume, higher bid-ask spreads and higher price fluctuations on subsequent months. We conclude that parameter uncertainty is one of the underlying factors giving rise to the high level of illiquidity in the corporate bond market.     

The housing market and excess monetary liquidity in China

This study investigated the performance of the housing market in China, determining that from a long-term perspective, an equilibrium relationship exists between housing prices and output. However, the housing market may not be efficient in the short run. Based on the correlation between housing returns and the economic growth rate, 3 distinct states can be discerned in the performance of the Chinese housing market. The first state is a bubble period, during which housing returns are excessively high and negatively correlated with the economic growth rate; the second state is a correction period, during which housing prices are corrected toward market fundamentals; and the third state is a calm market period, during which no substantial performance or trends manifest. This study determined that excess monetary liquidity significantly influenced the housing market states; however, no such effect was observed when the interest rate was adjusted. Thus, the findings implicate that if the People’s Bank of China intends to avoid losing control of the housing market, it should exercise monetary control to avoid excess liquidity in the housing market.     

Expectation,volatility and liquidity in the housing market

Measuring housing price volatility is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of housing price risk. This article aims to explore whether a liquidity factor plays a role in explaining the second moment (i.e. the volatility) of housing prices. Housing price volatility is measured as the conditional variance of a Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model under the Adaptive Expectations framework. The empirical evidence reveals that volatility transmits from smaller housing units to larger housing units, which indirectly supports the trade-up effect discussed in the literature. In addition, less liquid housing classes are more sensitive to unexpected liquidity shocks, and the starter housing class is extraordinarily sensitive to negative liquidity shocks. Consistent with friction search theory, pricing errors are alleviated as the trading volume increases, because the valuation price tends to be more accurate as more information is available.     

Balancing market liquidity: Bank Structural Reform caught between growth and stability

Abstract

The European Commission’s proposal for a Bank Structural Reform (BSR) aimed at increasing banks’ resolvability through separating risky trading activities from deposit-taking institutions. In contrast to initial plans, the final proposal exempted market-making activities of banks. This exemption, we argue, was brought about by the Commission’s discursive framing of the BSR as a balancing act between stability and growth. Coupled with the incapacity to unambiguously measure the effects of the reform on market liquidity and on growth, this pushed the assessment of market-making from the technical to the political realm, leading to a reproduction of the prevalent market-based banking system.     

Environmental disclosure and stock market liquidity: evidence from Arab MENA emerging markets

The objective of this study is to examine the impact of environmental disclosure levels on the stock market liquidity of Arab Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) companies. For that, a self-constructed disclosure index was applied to the annual reports for the years 2010, 2011 and 2012 and the bid-ask spread was used as a proxy for stock market liquidity. Results indicate that levels of environmental disclosure in MENA companies are quite low. In addition, using a sample of 276 firm-year observations, multivariate analysis shows that the higher the level of environmental disclosure provided in the annual reports, the lower the spread between the market bid and ask prices, thereby indicating an increase in stock market liquidity.     

股票市场发展与经济增长——从流动性的视角

基于前人的重要结论,从流动性的角度,将流动性分为成交量、换手率两个方面。通过向量自回归（VAR）建立模型进行进一步的研究,得出股票交易成交量与经济增长的长期均衡关系,并通过VECM模型与Granger因果关系检验对所建立的模型进行进一步验证。研究结果显示,股票市场的流动性与经济增长存在显著的关系。进一步研究换手率对股票流动性的影响可得出的结论是,股票市场的流动性与经济增长存在长期的均衡关系,并且流动性中,成交额与经济增长存在正向关系,而换手率与经济增长存在负向关系,两者都是通过影响股票市场的总市值来进一步影响经济增长的。     

OTC trades and liquidity in the European carbon market more than meets the eye

ABSTRACT

This study investigates whether the previously reported price impact of OTC trades in the EU ETS can be attributed to their distinctively larger size (liquidity related) or to their discretionary feature (information related). The findings suggest that OTC trades induce volatility shocks that are higher in magnitude and faster resolved than those of solely high trading-intensity trades, which appears to be driven mainly by their presence, rather than by their size. An analysis of intraday price premia reveals that they are strategically placed by interacting with the organized market whenever their price and volatility impact is lower.     

A novel measure of liquidity premium: application to the Korean stock market

This study proposes a novel measure for an asset’s liquidity premium. Applying Brownian first-passage time distribution properties, we derive an explicit form of liquidity premium embedded in the asset price. Our liquidity premium measure is intuitive because it assesses the extent to which the value of the asset should be increased from the current market price if investors were allowed to retain the asset until they achieve an investment goal. This measure is readily available for assessing an asset’s liquidity because it does not require information on the asset’s transactional characteristics. Our empirical experiment using Korean stock market data suggests that the liquidity premium in this study is inversely related to Amihud’s (2002) illiquidity ratio, which is commonly used to measure stocks’ illiquidity.     

A key determinant of commodity price Co-movement: The role of daily market liquidity

Daily price co-movement across different commodity classes and its key determinant are investigated in this paper. Using co-integration and Granger causality analysis, we identify a common liquidity factor which drives prices of five commodities (oil, silver, gold, corn, live cattle) to move along a common trend. When the market becomes more (less) liquid, all commodity prices tend to move up (down) in the same direction. As a result, such liquidity-driven price co-movement across different commodity classes is likely to generate aggregate price shocks and amplify inflation volatility. As a practical implication of our findings, policy makers ought to be able to draw valuable lessons from monitoring daily commodity liquidity dynamics as a timely bellwether for incipient inflation and to more effectively control inflation risk.     

上海股市流动性和收益率的动态关系研究

研究流动性与收益率之间的关系是证券市场微观结构理论研究的一个重点。文章采用VAR（向量自回归）方法来考察上海股票市场上流动性与收益率之间的关系。先通过VAR的脉冲响应函数来分析两者之间的影响关系，接着从条件分布的角度探索彼此之间的因果联系。综合考虑实证结果，深入了解上海股市流动性与收益率的变动传递过程。     

Default and liquidity regimes in the bond market during the 2002–2012 period

Using a real‐time random regime shift technique, we identify and discuss two different regimes in the dynamics of credit spreads during 2002–2012: a liquidity regime and a default regime. Both regimes contribute to the patterns observed in credit spreads. The liquidity regime seems to explain the predictive power of credit risk on the 2007–2009 NBER recession, whereas the default regime drives the persistence of credit spreads over the same recession. Our results complement the recent dynamic structural models as well as monetary and credit supply effects models by empirically supporting two important patterns in credit spreads: the persistence and the predictive ability toward economic downturns.     

Model uncertainty and liquidity

Extreme market outcomes are often followed by a lack of liquidity and a lack of trade. This market collapse seems particularly acute for markets where traders rely heavily on a specific empirical model such as in derivative markets like the market for mortgage backed securities or credit derivatives. Moreover, the observed behavior of traders and institutions that places a large emphasis on “worst-case scenarios” through the use of “stress testing” and “Value-at-Risk” seems different than Savage expected utility would suggest. In this paper, we capture model-uncertainty using an Epstein and Wang [Epstein, L.G., Wang, T., 1994. Intertemporal asset pricing under Knightian uncertainty. Econometrica 62, 283–322] uncertainty-averse utility function with an ambiguous underlying asset-returns distribution. To explore the connection of uncertainty with liquidity, we specify a simple market where a monopolist financial intermediary makes a market for a propriety derivative security. The market-maker chooses bid and ask prices for the derivative, then, conditional on trade in this market, chooses an optimal portfolio and consumption. We explore how uncertainty can increase the bid–ask spread and, hence, reduces liquidity. Our infinite-horizon example produces short, dramatic decreases in liquidity even though the underlying environment is stationary. We show how these liquidity crises are closely linked to the uncertainty aversion effect on the optimal portfolio. Effectively, the uncertainty aversion can, at times, limit the ability of the market-maker to hedge a position and thus reduces the desirability of trade, and hence, liquidity.     

Impact of government policy responses of COVID-19 pandemic on stock market liquidity for Australian companies

This study investigates the impact of government policy responses of COVID-19 pandemic on stock market liquidity for listed Australian companies and for 11 different industries separately. A quantitative deductive approach is used for a sample of 1,452 companies with a total of 292,164 firm-day observations over a period from January 25, 2020 to December 31, 2020 during the outbreak of COVID-19. Univariate and multivariate (two-way cluster-robust panel regression) analysis were conducted. Data were collected from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Worldmeter, Refinitiv Workspace and Datastream. Our findings indicate that the influences of the six out of seven stringency policy responses reduced Australian equity market liquidity. However, public information campaigns enhanced market liquidity and hence trading activity. Among the 11 industries, our analysis shows that the non-pharmaceutical interventions by the Australian government have significant and positive effects on four industries: Consumer non-cyclicals, healthcare, financial and technology. However, the worse effects were depicted in the industrial (transportation) and energy industries. This study is important for investors, policymakers and regulators to understand the diverse effects of government policy responses of COVID-19 on stock market liquidity to enhance financial stability. Moreover, understanding this effect is particularly important to decision-makers such as portfolio and fund managers to manage their portfolios and trading activities during extreme turbulence times, such as COVID-19. Unlike previous studies that focus on country analysis, this study examines on firm basis the impact of government interventions on stock market liquidity in a well developed Australian stock market.     

The impact of liquidity constraints on the cash-futures basis dynamics: Evidence from the Chinese market

This study investigates the impact of liquidity constraints on the dynamics of the cash-futures basis in the Chinese futures market. By analyzing the trading behaviors of hedgers, speculators, and arbitrageurs in a liquidity constraint context, we document two effects: the expectation effect and the liquidity effect. We further propose a set of threshold vector error correction models (VECMs) for the CSI 300 index and CSI 300 index futures to examine these two effects separately and jointly. We find evidence for both effects. We also find that a basis-liquidity-based threshold VECM, which includes both effects, performs well in explaining why the degree of persistence of a large basis depends on the direction of divergence in the cash-futures price relationship, a stylized fact we observe in the Chinese futures market.     

Money,liquidity and welfare

This paper develops an analytically tractable Bewley model of money demand to shed light on some important questions in monetary theory, such as the welfare cost of inflation. It is shown that when money is a vital form of liquidity to meet uncertain consumption needs, the welfare costs of inflation can be extremely large. With log utility and parameter values that best match both the aggregate money demand curve suggested by Lucas (2000) and the variance of household consumption, agents in our model are willing to reduce consumption by 3–4% to avoid 10% annual inflation. The astonishingly large welfare costs of inflation arise because inflation increases consumption risk by eroding the buffer-stock-insurance value of money, thus hindering consumption smoothing at the household level. Such an inflation-induced increase in consumption risk at the micro level cannot be captured by representative-agent models or the Bailey triangle. Although the development of financial intermediation can mitigate the problem, with realistic credit limits the welfare loss of moderate inflation still remains several times larger than estimations based on the Bailey triangle. Our findings provide a strong justification for adopting a low inflation target by central banks, especially in developing countries where money is the major form of household financial wealth.     

Contract settlement specification and price discovery: Empirical evidence in Australia individual share futures market

This study applies Geweke [J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 76 (1982) 304] measures of information flow and dependence between Australian individual share futures (ISF) contract and its underlying stock market to investigate whether the price discovery function of futures price has been enhanced after the switch of futures contracts from cash settlement to physical delivery. It is found that the spot market leads the futures market as the futures trading volume is rather small. Further tests suggest that the switch from cash settlement to physical delivery in the ISF contracts has reinforced the information flow from the spot market to the futures market.     

Debt, liquidity and dynamics

Summary. Money, which provides liquidity, is distinct from debt. The introduction of a bank that issues money in exchange for debt and pays out its profit as dividend to shareholders modifies the model of overlapping generations. The set of equilibrium paths, their dynamic properties, as well as the scope and effectiveness of monetary policy are significantly altered: though low rates of interest are associated with superior steady state allocations, stability of the steady state may require a nominal rate of interest above a certain minimum: without production, a decrease in the nominal rate of interest may result in explosive behavior or convergence to an endogenous cycle, while in an economy with production, an increase in the nominal rate of interest may lead to indeterminacy and fluctuations.Received: 5 October 2004, Revised: 5 November 2004 JEL Classification Numbers: E30, E32, E50, E52.C. Rochon, H.M. Polemarchakis: We thank Jean-Michel Grandmont for helpful comments. Correspondence to: C. RochonThis revised version was published online in May 2005 with a corrected abstract.     

Occupational choice and liquidity constraints

Using U.S. data, Evans and Jovanovic find a strong effect of the level of assets on the probability of being self-employed. They interpret this result as evidence of liquidity constraints. In this paper, we follow up this line of research: first, by replicating Evans and Jovanovic's methodology on French data to show that the empirical evidence is similar. Second, we embed their static model into a dynamic framework with uncertainty. The main theoretical prediction that can be drawn is that if the liquidity constraint is strong enough a future increase in the “entrepreneurial ability” of an agent, although raising expected future incomes, may induce her to lower her current consumption and raise her savings.