Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines

This study analyses point forecasts of exact scoreline outcomes for football matches in the English Premier League. These forecasts were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. We compare these with implied probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of tipsters, as well as point and probability forecasts generated from a statistical model. From evaluating these sources and types of forecast, using various methods, we argue that regression encompassing is the most appropriate way to compare point and probability forecasts, and find that both these types of forecasts for football match scorelines generally add information to one another.     

The Labour Market in Association Football: Who Gets Transferred and for How Much?

This paper employs data for the 1993–94 season to estimate a hedonic equation representing the determination of the price structure in the transfer market for professional players in the English football leagues. Player transfer proneness is modelled, and the Heckman two-step procedure is employed to take account of selection bias. The paper identifies those player attributes which affect either the probability of transfer or the transfer fee and evaluates the relative influence of such variables.     

FAVORITISM AND REFEREE BIAS IN EUROPEAN SOCCER: EVIDENCE FROM THE SPANISH LEAGUE AND THE UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

In this paper, we test for, and find evidence of, referee bias in favor of home teams in European football using minute‐by‐minute analysis to control for within‐game events. The context for the analysis is Spain's Primera Liga and the Union of European Football Association (UEFA) Champions League. We find that the award of sanctions by Spanish referees in the Champions League are not significantly different to those of the referees from other countries and as such are subject to the same sources of bias. In Primera Liga matches where the crowd is separated from the pitch by running tracks, we find that the probability of the award of a yellow card to the home team is higher and that of the away team is lower compared to matches played at stadia without running tracks. Similar results are found in the Champions League, where efforts are made to hire “neutral” referees. Referee behavior is also influenced by the size of the crowd in attendance. (JEL D8, J2)     

Performance evaluation of the English Premier Football League with data envelopment analysis

This paper uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) to evaluate the performance of English Premier League football clubs from 1998/99 to 2002/03 combining sport and financial variables. The paper evaluates how close the clubs are relative to the frontier of best practices, analysing how they manage sport as well as financial results. Managerial implications of the research are devised.     

Efficiency measurement of the English football Premier League with a random frontier model

Using the random stochastic frontier model, this paper examines the technical efficiency of the English football Premier League from 1998/99 to 2003/04. The model disentangles homogenous and heterogeneous variables in the cost function, which leads us to advise the implementation of common policies as well as policies by clusters.     

Changing of the guards: New coaches in Austria’s premier football league

Professional team sports provide an ideal real world experiment to explore the effect of top executive replacement due to the availability of excellent performance data. This paper investigates how replacing the coach affects the performance of football teams. Analyzing almost 2,000 matches of the Austrian premier football league by ordinal (probit) regression techniques we find that a new coach tends to enhance team performance in home matches but to weaken it in away matches. However, neither of these effects turns out to be statistically significant. Nevertheless, the much discussed coach effect—ousting an underperforming coach in order to improve team performance at least temporarily—may make sense despite the costs involved by providing stronger ex-ante incentives for effort.

Star quality and competitive balance? Television audience demand for English Premier League football reconsidered

The aim of this article is to investigate the determinants of television audience for English Premier League (EPL) football matches during the 2013–2014 season (n = 154). The model is adapted from Buraimo and Simmons (2015) who concluded that star quality was an important determinant of television audiences for the EPL over the 2000–2008 period, whereas uncertainty of outcome and championship, Europe and relegation contention were not. Their measures for contention are replaced by indicators based on Scelles et al.’s (2013b, 2016) competitive intensity. Results show a significant positive impact of star quality but also championship and Champions League intensity and no significant impact of Europa League, potential Europa League and relegation intensity. Based on these results, the article suggests that the EPL should encourage both star quality and competitive balance so that all teams can be competitive in terms of the title or qualification for the UEFA Champions League. Given the differences in revenue generation between English teams, the best way to achieve both star quality and competitive balance would be through the introduction of a European Super League. However, this conclusion based on television audience contradicts that of Scelles et al. (2016) based on stadium attendance.     

And if the ball does not cross the line? A comprehensive analysis of football clubs’ performance

The football club market is changing fast in the social media era. In this global market, clubs must maintain or improve fans’ attendance at the stadium; simultaneously, they need, more than ever, to take care of social media. The aim of this article is to test and discuss a comprehensive approach to analysing the performance of football clubs regarding their multiplicity of objectives. We analyse the efficiency of English Premier League (EPL) clubs during three seasons (2012/13–2014/15). The methodologies employed are data envelopment analysis (DEA) and a bootstrapped DEA model. The input is the market value of the squad, and the outputs are sports results, total revenue, the ratio of stadium utilization during the season and an index of social media impact. The results are robust to alternative estimation methods and indicate that EPL clubs still have a margin for improving their overall efficiency, mainly the medium clubs. The analysis of football clubs’ performance with the proposed comprehensive approach provides a useful tool to help managers with evaluation and feedback considering the actual context of the market. The approach brings closer the opportunity to design appropriate strategies to improve clubs’ efficiency as well as competition policies.     

The influence of demand and supply side pressures on the quantity and quality of inventive activity

This article arguments the literature on the demand for professional team sports by estimating a demand function for attendance at home matches in the Malaysian Semi-Pro Football League (MSPFL) between 1989 and 1991. A single-equation demand (attendance) function based on a pooled cross-section and time-series panel data set of 399 games is estimated by ordinary least squares, a fixed effects dummy variable covariance model and an error components model. Our findings confirm the importance of market size and championship prospects for the home team (but not the visiting team), as well as divisional status and ‘star’ players. The first match of the season and derby matches also increased attendance.     

Competitive balance versus competitive intensity before a match: is one of these two concepts more relevant in explaining attendance? The case of the French football Ligue 1 over the period 2008–2011

The aim of this article is to investigate the determinants of attendance at French football Ligue 1 matches over the period 2008–2011 with an emphasis on examining the effects of both competitive balance and intensity before a match. Competitive balance is measured by the point difference between the two teams concerned by a match in the championship. Competitive intensity is measured by the point difference for the home team in relation to ranks with sporting stakes. Results show that competitive balance has an insignificant impact whereas competitive intensity has a significantly positive impact. Implications are drawn.     

Gini playing soccer

The level of income inequality in a European country influences the competitive balance of its major soccer leagues. We test this hypothesis using cointegration techniques for seven male professional soccer leagues (the Dutch, English, French, German, Italian, Spanish and Ukrainian soccer leagues) from the 1980/1981 season to the 2011/2012 season. Controlling for the level of income inequality using variables such as real GDP per capita, trade openness and the emigration rate, we conclude that income inequality (measured by the Gini index) causes changes in the measures of competitive balance that we employ (the Hirschman–Herfindahl index and the SD) concerning the final number of points scored by the various teams.     

UNBALANCED SCHEDULES AND THE ESTIMATION OF COMPETITIVE BALANCE IN THE SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Since the season ending in 2001, the Scottish Premier League (SPL) has, unlike other European football leagues, utilised an unbalanced schedule, by which the strongest teams in a given season play each other an extra time, mutatis mutandis for the weakest teams. While this approach may make sense for several reasons, it also has implications for within-season measures of competitive balance, because it creates biases in the set of win ratios from the end-of-season league table. This paper applies a simple log-probability rule to calculate a set of adjusted win ratios correcting for this inherent bias. Such an adjustment is necessary if one wishes to compare within-season competitive balance of the SPL with other European leagues. It is shown that by correcting for the unbalanced schedule, the SPL is consistently less competitive over the sample period. The implications of this finding are discussed at length.     

The Short‐term Determinants of Capital Flows for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Greece

This paper presents the factors driving capital flows inwards and outwards of a small open economy such as Greece during the period 1983–2009. Apart from the determinants of capital flows the possibility of speculative attacks is also considered. Applying the ordinary least squares (OLS) method it is found that variables linked to external factors such as the differential of domestic and foreign interest rates and financial crises, such as the Asian and Russian financial turmoil of 1997 and 1998 respectively, are the main factors influencing capital inflows and outflows in Greece during the period 1983–2009. Additionally the results of probit analysis support that the same factors are significant in determining the probability of speculative attacks to the Greek economy.     

Does a marching band impact college Football game attendance? A panel study of Division II

Marching bands are an integral part of the college football game-day experience by increasing both the quantity and quality of entertainment. Academic music programs could enhance a band’s entertainment value via better-trained members and recruitment of more highly skilled musicians. The impact of these influences on game-day attendance is explored using data from nine years of regular season games in Division II. The regression model controls for economic factors, home-team performance, demographic influences and game characteristics and employs boot-strap clustering methods for calculating standard errors of coefficients. Results suggest that a marching band, the existence of an academic music program and being a historically black college each exerts an independent positive impact on attendance after controlling for all other factors.     

Endogenous Fishery Management in a Stochastic Model: Why Do Fishery Agencies Use TACs Along with Fishing Periods?

This paper seeks to explain the circumstances under which using total allowable catch (TAC) as an instrument to manage a fishery along with fishing periods may be of interest from a regulatory point of view. The deterministic analysis by Homans and Wilen (J Environ Econ Manag 32:1?C21, 1997) and Anderson (Ann Oper Res 94:231?C257, 2000) is thus extended to a stochastic scenario where the resource cannot be measured accurately. The resulting model is solved numerically to find the optimal control rules in the Iberian sardine stock. Three relevant conclusions can be highlighted from simulations: first, the greater the uncertainty regarding the state of the stock, the lower the probability of the fishery being closed before the end of the fishing period. Second, the use of TACs as a management instrument in fisheries that are already regulated by fishing periods leads to: (i) an increase in the optimal season length and harvests, especially for medium and high numbers of licences; (ii) improved biological and economic variables when the fleet is large; and (iii) extinction risk for the resource being eliminated. Third, the regulator would rather select the number of licences than restrict the season length.     

Family violence and football: the effect of unexpected emotional cues on violent behavior

We study the link between family violence and the emotional cues associated with wins and losses by professional football teams. We hypothesize that the risk of violence is affected by the “gain-loss” utility of game outcomes around a rationally expected reference point. Our empirical analysis uses police reports of violent incidents on Sundays during the professional football season. Controlling for the pregame point spread and the size of the local viewing audience, we find that upset losses (defeats when the home team was predicted to win by four or more points) lead to a 10% increase in the rate of at-home violence by men against their wives and girlfriends. In contrast, losses when the game was expected to be close have small and insignificant effects. Upset wins (victories when the home team was predicted to lose) also have little impact on violence, consistent with asymmetry in the gain-loss utility function. The rise in violence after an upset loss is concentrated in a narrow time window near the end of the game and is larger for more important games. We find no evidence for reference point updating based on the halftime score.     

The Demand for Australian Rules Football*

Declining attendances at Australian Rules football games organized by the VFL recently have become the focus of much concern. An econometric analysis of the demand for football is presented, using annual average attendance data for the years 1950–86. It is found that increases in admission prices had a significant negative effect on demand, and increases in real income a positive impact. Amongst other variables of importance in explaining demand are lagged attendance and uncertainty of outcome. Elasticities of demand are calculated and it is shown how they might be used to predict attendance under different pricing scenarios.     

Should football fans pay for security? Effects of a security fee

There is a lively debate on whether football fans should pay a security fee to finance police activities. This paper investigates the price effect on the demand for tickets in a dynamic setting, by considering two subgroups of spectators, namely fans and hooligans. We analyze a situation in which the demand from each subgroup causes a negative social externality for members of the other group but a positive one for members of the same group. We show that charging a security fee may start a dynamic process, leading to fewer fans and more hooligans attending matches and thus, counterintuitively to even more violence. Therefore, the present study provides an argument to refrain from charging a security fee. As an alternative economic solution, we discuss the strategy of outpricing hooligans.     

An options-based approach to forecast competing bids: evidence for Canadian takeover battles

During takeover battles, a tender offer provides a call option right to the target’s shareholders: it guarantees the offered price but maintains the chance of a higher offer. We present an options-based approach to estimate the probability and expected value of higher competing takeover bids using target stock price data. Analysing Canadian takeover battles in the period 1997 to 2007 we find that during the 5 trading days prior to the occurrence of an increased takeover bid, the estimated probability of a higher bid exceeds 80% on average and the expected value of a potential competing bid almost matches the realized value.     

Bargaining in the transfer market: theory and evidence

This paper examines the transfer market for association football players as operated in the English Football League using transfer data for the 1990–91 season. After describing the purposes and procedures involved in the transfer system together with the motives of the participants, we apply two-person bargaining theory to analyse the determination of transfer fees. The data and estimation procedures are explained and the results reported and interpreted. Our analysis suggests that the Nash bargaining theory captures the salient features of the bargaining process in the footballer's transfer market.